StarCraft News & Notes

WCS qualifiers start today in the SEA region and then tomorrow in Europe (you can see the full schedule here).  I really enjoy the qualifiers and I'm looking forward to the upsets and storylines that get built through them.  It will be interesting to see if Jaedong and StarDust romp through the NA scene as expected, or if they struggle through it ala Polt in season one (speaking of which, what poor arbiters those struggles were for both he and TLO).  The impact of the swarmhost change will be felt--will Zergs stay away from the unit or find a new way to abuse it?  Time will tell.  For those unaware of how WCS operates now, all Premier players (except the winner) will have to play a BO5 against a qualifier, so there's no immunity for the top-16 as in the past.  I like the change, as it presents more opportunities for players to get into the system and also ensures the best players of the moment are in Premier.

I've been watching a lot of LOTV (Artosis has posted a second blog with his thoughts about it; also, TL posted strategy ideas), and enjoyed it despite the balance problems (as predicted, Husky is back casting games of the beta).  I'm not sure when Blizzard will start tweaking the game, but I find it much more fun to watch casually than HOTS in terms of player streams--there's always something going on in-game.

Drama is never too far away and a very salty Totalbiscuit let his rage at the GSL get the better of him on Twitter as he made an offhand comment slamming foreign players (you can see a more measured TB via The Late Game from earlier this week).  MorroW made a brief response to it, but in general I think there's no point in delving into the specifics.  It's clear that TB wasn't really thinking about what he said and there's no question he wants both SC2 and its foreign scene to succeed (his Clan Wars tournament is a lot of fun, btb).  It's unfortunate for him that the WCS system changes have screwed things up so much for Axiom (the lineup isn't talented enough to make deep runs in Code S).  I still believe the foreign scene needs an important tournament without Koreans to play for.  Yes it's protectionist, but the scene needs to grow at this point and I'm not sure that's possible when foreigners have no chance to win meaningful tournaments.  I wonder if something a bit smaller than WCS that worked like the EPS would do the trick.

Congrats to BaseTradetv on hitting 10 million views.  They are the best community stream in the scene and deserve praise for all the work they do.  As an aside, I have no idea why they are virtually the only people who use the Game Heart overlay (which is so much better than any other).

A bit off topic, but I think everyone in the community is a fan of number-cruncher Jakatak, but all I can think about when I see his "tea time" segments are Dodger's "coffeh time" ones.  I don't know if it's an homage to her or if the concept is so simple there's an abundance of such shows.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Season One Finals: Looking Back

Once again the WCS final was an all-Korean match-up (despite only 4 participating in Premier this season).  I think Polt saved the final with his improbable comeback to beat Hydra (the narrative of the ROOT player crushing everyone wouldn't be very engaging).  Both ShoWTimE and Bunny made it to the top-four, although the Dane was the only one to muster a challenge to the finalists (the EPS champion was crushed by Hydra).  For those interested, TL has posted a brief recap.  I enjoyed the tournament (which enjoyed excellent viewership), but it did nothing to change my feeling that the current region lock isn't strong enough--foreigners need a meaningful tournament to play in that is for them alone (a bit like Copa America).  That aside, what a great weekend for Polt, who had the most difficult path to the championship and prevailed despite his struggles (I have to wonder how much Hydra's manner hatchery and dancing lings in game four added fuel to Captain America).

I thought it was a great season overall (the casting/analysis this weekend was excellent--even with Kaelaris giggling).  Both Blizzard and ESL survived some missteps getting here (particularly in how late the schedule was produced and the initial fail in drawing the groups for R32), but we had some upsets and breakout performances (Kane and ShoWTimE in particular).

Looking forward, I'm curious to see how the swarmhost change will impact players who have heavily relied on them (FireCake most obviously).  For Zergs it completely changes both ZvP and ZvT against meching Terrans (granted that other than Strelok and GoOdy, not many pros actually choose mech).  I suspect in ZvP muta play will be the choice, returning to the meta of HOTS in 2013 (I'd love to see ling/infestor/ultra, but immortals hard counter the latter so hard I doubt it will happen).  Putting the meta aside, PvZ will become vastly more entertaining; if we could only get zealot/archon functioning back in TvP I think HOTS would be as entertaining as it could be prior to LOTV's release.

As for predictions, Aligulac was 3-1 in the R8 (I was 2-2); we were both 1-1 following that and I was correct that Hydra would lose.  TL didn't offer predictions beyond the R16, but in terms of Premier predictions overall:
Me 18-13
Aligulac 17-14
TL 14-10
Myself and TL were 58% accurate, while Aligulac was a touch behind at 54%; this is a decrease from the last time I looked at Aligulac's predictive success in WCS.

Racial Balance:
TvZ 13-8
ZvP 11-7
TvP 5-4

Minus Koreans (except viOLet) vs foreigners:
TvZ 6-6
ZvP 9-7
TvP 4-4

There was a slight edge to Zerg against Protoss (which makes sense given we had swarmhosts without the nerf).  How about map balance?

Map Scores:
Vaani (34): TvZ 10-5 ZvP 7-3 TvP 5-4
Overgrowth (26): ZvP 8-4 TvZ 5-5 TvP 2-2
Deadwing (22): PvZ 6-4 TvZ 8-0 TvP 2-2
Catallena (22): TvZ 8-5 ZvP 4-2 PvT 2-1
Expedition Lost (18): ZvP 6-3 ZvT 6-1 TvP 2-0
Inferno Pools (4): ZvT 3-0 TvP 1-0
Secret Spring (2): TvZ 1-0 PvT 1-0
Overall (128): TvZ 33-24 ZvP 31-16 TvP 13-11

Removing ForGG, Polt, and Hydra against foreigners from these results (which seems a better way to look at balance--they went 8-1, 11-4, and 13-2 respectively; overall Koreans were 34-12 vs foreigners, losing 3 matches), here are the stats:
Vaani (28): TvZ 6-4 ZvP 6-3 TvP 5-4
Overgrowth (25): ZvP 7-4 TvZ 5-5 TvP 2-2
Deadwing (17): PvZ 5-4 TvZ 4-0 TvP 2-2
Catallena (16): TvZ 6-4 ZvP 2-2 PvT 2-0
Expedition Lost (15): ZvP 5-3 ZvT 4-1 TvP 2-0
Inferno Pools (3): ZvT 3-0
Secret Spring (2): TvZ 1-0 PvT 1-0
Overall (106): TvZ 23-20 ZvP 24-17 PvT 12-11

In terms of map balance, Inferno Pools and Secret Springs weren't played enough to say much about them (RIP to the latter).  On the other hand, Deadpool ends its run being overpowered for Terrans vs Zerg, Expedition Lost is the reverse (a bad map for non-Zergs generally), while Vaani is tough on Protoss in PvZ (perhaps less so without broken swarmhosts); nothing is currently weighted heavily to Protoss.  Not surprisingly the old maps (Overgrowth, Deadwing, and Catallena) received the bulk of the action along with Vaani.  I think we saw Expedition Lost as much as we did only because Inferno and Spring were considered worse.

With the massive overhaul to the map pool (four new additions: Coda, Cactus Valley, Echo, and Iron Fortress) it will be interesting to see how the meta will evolve.  If Inferno Pools is removed in favour of Ganymede, the change will be even more massive.  Regardless, there's plenty of reason for excitement going into season two (qualifiers begin on April 11th).  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know!

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (R8 to the Final)

The R16 is complete, ending with Kaelaris giggles and failed Has cheese.  In terms of predictions, I was 7-1 (incorrectly picking Welmu instead of Kane), while Aligulac was 6-2 and TL 5-3.  All the Koreans advanced and none of them dropped a game to a foreigner.  Snute's luck in avoiding Koreans continues while Polt must face a fellow countryman for the second round in a row.  The biggest surprise was Kane, whose own expectations prior to the round was to fall out of it, but he played exceptionally well (particularly against Bunny).  The final eight include 4 Zergs, 3 Terrans, and 1 Protoss (coming close to mirroring WCS Europe season one back in 2013).  Onto the predictions.

Hydra vs TLO - the Korean is a massive favourite (87%); he's never lost against a foreigner in a ZvZ BO3, so while TLO is capable of upsets, I don't see it happening here

Kane vs ShoWTimE - the two least experienced of the top-eight, the German is favoured (67%) and has impressive PvZ stats, but there seems to be momentum behind the Canadian and I'll pick the upset here based on how well he's played the past two days

Snute vs Bunny - the Dane is favoured (60%), holding a significant edge against Snute when they've played against one another (18-9, although they've split their last two series); Bunny did not look very impressive against Kane, but the Norwegian can't turtle his way to victory in this matchup either--I'll stick with the odds

ForGG vs Polt - Captain America is a massive underdog, as ForGG is has an 83% chance to win and there's little reason to argue with that--ForGG has a better record in TvT vs Koreans and has beaten Polt in both their matches in HOTS by a collective 5-0 map score; Polt is only 1-8 in Korean TvT of late (I'm excluding his recent win over Nado)

Aligulac has Hydra, ShoWTimE, Bunny, and ForGG moving forward, while I have Kane instead of our only Protoss.  This would give us the following final four:

Hydra vs Kane/ShoWTimE - as far as the odds are concerned, the ROOT Korean would prefer to face Kane (88%) over ShoWTimE (64%), although the difference there is largely made up of the German's excellent PvZ against his fellow foreigners (although he did beat HyuN at Fragbite); for Kane, other than a win over Life at Destiny I he has no notable wins over Korean Zergs; either way, I expect Hydra to make it through

ForGG vs Bunny - the Korean is the overwhelming favourite (86%); Bunny hasn't beaten a significant Korean in TvT since Cure and Polt back in August (going 0-5 since); the only Terran foreigner ForGG has lost too in HOTS is Happy so the result here seems inevitable

Both Aligulac and I have Hydra and ForGG moving forward.  It's not surprisingly that the final will feature two of the four Koreans who participated in WCS this season (StarDust and Jaedong are incoming for season two).

Hydra vs ForGG - the ROOT player is favoured (55%); he's 8-0 vs Korean Terrans of late and this match-up used to be ForGG's Achilles heel, but he's been better of late, only losing to players like Life and Soulkey; I think there's hope for an upset (particularly given how Hydra lost to MorroW) and I'll give ForGG his first ever WCS championship.

Aligulac crowns Hydra, while I'm crowning ForGG.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (R16 Groups C and D)

I'm on the clock as I hadn't realised half of each of the four groups was happening today with them wrapping up tomorrow.  With that said, here are the predictions for the other two groups in the R16.  If you spot any errors or omissions please let me know.

Group C
The only group with two Koreans features all three races.  Oddly MaNa is the player entering the fray with a clean record (cleaning up an ill viOLet and Bunny); Polt didn't lose a series, but lost games to both Jim and Kelazhur; Hydra lost to MorroW before beating him in the re-match (along with knocking off iAsonu), while Swarmhoster FireCake arrives on the back of beating puCK twice.

Polt vs FireCake - the odds are less overwhelming (66%) than they should be, as Polt is 25-1 against foreigners for the past year or so in BO3s (losing only to Kane back in January); FireCake's last win against a notable Korean Terran was beating MMA a year ago, so conclusion is obvious here
Hydra vs MaNa - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (71%), so is there hope for MaNa?  Given Hydra's 21-0 record vs foreign Protoss' I don't think so
Losers Match
MaNa vs FireCake - despite this being the Frenchman's best match-up, MaNa is the favourite (61%); FireCake beat MaNa just a month ago at the Fragbite Masters and the Polish players PvZ of late isn't that impressive, but given how predictable the Frenchman is I'll go with MaNa regardless
Winners Match
Polt vs Hydra - the Zerg is just as much a favourite (71%) as he was against the Polish player above and Polt has been awful against Korean Zergs (2-8 in his last ten BO3s); Hydra's record in the match-up isn't perfect, but includes beating Polt a couple of months ago so I'm happy to stick with the odds
Finals
MaNavs Polt- the Korean is a slight favourite (59%), despite Polt having an excellent TvP record and MaNa struggling against Korean Terrans, so I'll stick with Captain America here (if this goes via Aligulac then Polt faces FireCake again and wins)

Both Aligulac and I (and Team Liquid) see the Koreans going through, albeit we come at it in a different way.

Group D
An all-foreign group featuring all the races.  Welmu arrives with a clean sweep over HuK and iaguz; Kane is here via his Cuban vacation after beating Happy and TargA; Bunny overcame an ill viOLet along with MajOr; Has is here after beating NaNiwa in a re-match (along with knocking off Suppy).

Welmu vs Bunny - the Dane is favoured (63%), which seems low given his 20-2 record against Protoss this year, so it's easy to stick with the favourite
Has vs Kane - the Canadian is a slight favourite (55%), but given the fact he's just back from vacation with no time to prepare (he's also said publically he'll lose out here), I'll give this to the cheesy Protoss
Losers Match
Welmu vs Kane - Kane is again a very slight favourite (50%), but the Canadian's impressive ZvP record is largely built off the back of weaker NA competition so I'll go with Welmu here; if this is the Finn vs Has Aligulac has Welmu winning
Winners Match
Bunny vs Has- the Dane is an overwhelming favourite (74%), despite both players being excellent in the match-up (Has restricted to his limited scene); I don't see an upset here though, as Has-cheese seems much more effective against Protoss
Finals
Welmu vs Has - the link to the numbers are above (60%), with Welmu having far more impressive results

Both Aligulac and I (and TL) see Bunny and Welmu moving forward.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (R16 Groups A and B)

After what seems like forever, WCS is back in action tomorrow in the midst of the Legacy of the Void beta hype (I'll have a few comments about the latter at the end of this).  This is the last gasp of the old map pool and the old swarm host (RIP).  In terms or predictive success from the R32 it's been quite close between Aligulac, Team Liquid, and myself, although none have produced stellar results to this point.  That being said, here's how the groups breakdown tomorrow.  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.

Group A

Three Zergs and one Terran make for an interesting mix.  Serral didn't drop a map arriving here (beating NaNiwa and Suppy), while ForGG only lost one game (screwing around against FireCake); TLO narrowly beat out Kelazhur after dropping his first series against him (he also took out Jim), while XiGua fought tooth and nail to beat both Astrea and a sick uThermal, while LAO losing to Snute.

Serral vs XiGua - the Finnish player is a strong favourite (65%); it's difficult to judge XiGua's current form given the insular scene he plays in, but while Serral's ZvZ percentages are great, his match history features some surprising bumps in the road (JonnyRecco and HateMe (!)), and what few games he's played since the R32 have been iffy as well, so I'll take the upset here
ForGG vs TLO - not surprisingly, the Korean is a heavy favourite (79%), so the question is, does TLO have any hope?  I don't see it--while he beat ForGG two years ago at a Dreamhack, he's lost to him in both subsequent meetings and he hasn't beaten a Korean Terran since SuperNova back in July (going 0-9 since)
Losers Match
Serral vs TLO - once again the Finnish player gets the odds (57%); oddly they've only played against each other once competitively (a BO1 that Serral won); I mentioned Serral's missteps in ZvZ above, although it's worth noting both he and TLO have absurdly good records in the matchup (in their ten most recent BO3s: 8-2 for the Finn, 9-1 for the German); that said, TLO only loses to good Zerg players so I think he has the edge here and I'll go for the upset; if this instead features XiGua instead of the Finnish player, Aligulac gives TLO the edge (58%)
Winners Match
ForGG vs XiGua - we can safely say RIP XiGua and know the odds back us up (85%); Aligulac would have Serral here and not surprisingly gives ForGG a significant edge (73%)--I see no reason to argue
Finals
TLO vs XiGua - TLO has a slight edge (58%) and here I agree with them (for the reasons given above in his match against Serral; this is Aligulac's imagined losers match btw); if Aligulac is right and TLO faces Serral here you can read about that above (but they give it to the Finn).

ForGG and TLO move on for me, while Aligulac has Serral instead of the German player.  [TL posted shortly after this and has Aligulac's conclusions.]

Group B

A Z/P all-foreigner group.  Snute didn't lose a map making it here (taking out XiGua and an ill uThermal), while ShoWTimE had competitive series against iAsonu and MorroW; MacSed squeaked through by beating iaguz in their re-match series (along with knocking off a very subpar HuK); PiG recovered from being crushed by Happy to edge out both TargA and the predictable Russian.

Snute vs MacSed - the Norwegian is a heavy favourite (82%), and the only way MacSed wins this is to win early (I say that despite his high PvZ ratio--struggling to beat Enderr is not a great sign), so I'll stick with the odds
ShoWTimE vs PiG - the German player is favoured (68%), and I think that's being generous to PiG as he hasn't beaten a notable Protoss since ToD back in July
Losers Match
MacSed vs PiG - oddly enough, PiG has beaten MacSed, but it was back in 2013 and doesn't seem that relevant, but it helps explain why he's so heavily favoured (63%); to my mind MacSed's record in the matchup is more impressive than PiG's, but I don't know if heavy swarmhost play is as common in the Chinese scene--regardless, I'll stick with the "upset" here
Winners Match
Snute vs ShoWTimE - the odds are very close (55% for Snute), and that's likely because ShoWTimE beat Snute twice at the Fragbite Masters less than a month ago; it's hard to bet against Snute, especially when he still has access to his favourite unnerfed unit, but he's been known to stubbornly stick to his builds so perhaps the German has figured him out--I'll go with the upset
Finals
Snute vs MacSed - this is a rematch and while normally the player who loses the first wins the second, I think Snute will comfortably win again; Aligulac would make this a rematch between ShoWTimE and PiG (whose odds you can see above)

ShoWTimE and Snute move ahead for me (Aligulac arrives at the same conclusion, but comes at it a different way).  [TL, link above, puts MacSed through instead of the German.]

A couple of thoughts about the LOTV beta (with the Lycan League tournament just an hour or so away): it's been fantastic and I love the changes--the action is much and there's a lot more multitasking.  In terms of balance concerns (along with an awful map pool), opinions seem similar across the board (echoed from The Late Game to Artosis to streamers like HuK or HeroMarine): the Cyclone is broken (while easily countered by Zerglings in TvZ, it's overpowered against Protoss), the Ravager is broken (mostly against Protoss--last night I think I saw them rushed in almost every ZvP), and the Viper's Parasitic Bomb is broken.  There's slight disagreement over the Adept, but most Protoss pros thought it was useless as-is; the invulnerable Nydus has been brought-up; I saw complaints about Carriers, but not enough to call them broken (unless the Protoss can amass a huge fleet of them I don't see the problem, but I'm hardly an expert).  Those are the impressions I noted and it will be interesting to see what tweaks are made--it's worth pointing out that everyone likes the ideas behind the new units, so even those that have issues at the moment seem worth saving (granted I agree with iNcontroL that thematically Zergs don't really need the Lurker and the Swarmhost--keep the Lurker I say).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

The announcement of when the closed beta for LOTV has come out, with March 31st marked on your calendars.  I'm not sure how one gets into the beta, but at the least we'll get to see videos on Twitch and Youtube (Lycan has announced his weekly league will be LOTV only, for example).   Undoubtedly there will be some broken units to start, but that's fine so long as they get tweaked before release.

The season two map pool has been announced:
Expedition Lost
Vaani Research Station
Inferno Pools
Coda (TL map)
Echo (TL map)
Cactus Valley (TL map)
Iron Fortress (Kespa map)

Removed were Overgrowth (at last), Catallena (hoi hoi hoi), Deadwing, and Secret Spring.  The latter map is one of the very few to appear for only one season.  I expect Vaani to be the new Overgrowth of the season (ie, chosen all the time, just like Bel'Shir Vestige before it).  I've seen speculation that Inferno Pools may still be removed, but for now that's all it is.

NaNiwa has found a team for himself at last as Team Property signed him.  However many bridges he's burned in the past, it seems like there's always room for him somewhere on an SC2 team.  I'm not sure how much (if at all) this will impact his streaming.

Day9 took to Reddit in the wake of the recent controversy about the possibility of departed SC2 celebrities returning to the scene in the wake of LOTV.  He explained why he stopped doing SC2 dailies, something he's apparently done on his show already, but never specifically delineated as a post or video.  In essence he stopped due to lack of time to do his show in the way he wanted.  I'm glad Day9 made the effort, as his post should put a lid on the criticism of him that's been floating around since the summer.  The other bit of news is that he won't immediately jump into LOTV coverage due to current time constraints, but perhaps towards the end of the beta or upon release we can expect him to return.

Along the same lines, Lycan talked to DJ Wheat about his departure from the SC2 community and for those interested I suggest watching the entire interview.  Wheat apparently still watches more StarCraft than any other eSport, but has abandoned casting events (feeling pushed out by the WCS system--Wheat generally did MLGs for those who weren't in the scene at the time).  His disappearance from the community is largely due to the negativity within it; he also downplayed the fact that he was ever involved in SC2 for the money.  Beyond that they talked about the state of the game (including Blizzard's reluctance to patch the game), and he was ultimately very positive.

With Day9 and DJ Wheat having spoken out, is JP McDaniel next?

There has been another accusation of cheating as it appeared as though MarineKing threw his match against Byul in the SPL.  It seems pretty obvious to me, but there's room for debate which you can see via The Late Game and Remax (links below).

The conversation about Winter is still simmering and you can see a lengthy debate about it on The Late Game where Lycan spends an inordinate amount of time trying to illustrate why there may be some question over whether Evan viewbotted or not (with Axeltoss appearing in support of Winter--which is not surprising given that he just cast with the guy).  Remax also briefly discussed Totalbiscuit wanting Winter out of the scene entirely (something that's pretty impractical--his call to get ride of Avilo back in July fell on deaf ears, for example).  At this stage I think there's more than enough evidence for fans to draw their own conclusions.  Personally I think the fact that he's been exposed and isn't featured on TL is enough at this point.

I wonder if anyone will explore the role of the swarm host in HOTS prior to the nerf--from Stephano's early corrupter/viper style in 2013 to the more current way of using them ala Snute.  It's going to be interesting to see how the change impacts Zerg strategies, particularly against Protoss or meching Terrans.  At a guess I think we'll see a return to the heavy muta play that was so prevalent in HOTS in the beginning.

This is a bit tangential, but Thorin has a great little vlog explaining the difference between a serious prediction and simply saying X will beat Y without providing reasoning.  I find sports is plagued by vague, meaningless predictions hinged on irrelevant or unprovable factors (eg who is trying harder).  It's why I appreciate Aligulac and its methodology--it's not perfect, but the reasons for its predictions are based on good data and reasoning.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

It has been a long time since I did a blog about SC2 news, but there's been so much of late I thought it was worth doing.

The Swarm Host change that has been needed since Beta is on its way.  It's incredible that Blizzard has managed to drag its heels nerfing a broken Zerg unit in each of its SC2 releases (the infestor in WOL, the swarm host in HOTS).  It's apparent that until something heavily impacts the Korean scene, there's little to no interest in tackling major balance problems.  Will LOTV be different?  We can hope.

TotalBiscuit is bringing SC2 back to MLG tv.  This will be Clan Wars, which he ran last year.  I wish TB would also play SC2 again, but given how stressful he finds it, I'm not surprised he's avoided it while battling cancer.

Around the same time came word/rumour that many of the old school SC2 personalities are poised to return to the game once Legacy of the Void hits.  The shit hit the fan when Destiny talked about it on The Late Game, which made its way to Reddit.  You can listen to Destiny's own words via the link, but in essence he was upset that some of the personalities would reappear for a cash grab without having done anything to prevent the game from sliding in the interim (there's a hilarious mock article taking this argument to its logical extreme).  I couldn't say what said personalities did or didn't do in WOL (I came in at the end of it), but on the whole I don't really care if peripheral people return so long as it doesn't come at the expense of those who have soldiered on.  Of the personalities Husky deserves the least amount of criticism, as his absence was largely due to personal issues he discussed last November.  I've always been puzzled by Day9's silence on why he was no longer producing regular SC2 content (something he stopped last May); I would have understood if he'd said it simply wasn't cost-effective or if his interests had moved on, but I'll be happy to have him back in LOTV (I think he's good for the game and community).

On the heels of this storm the scene exploded as proof of Winter's viewbotting came to light.  I don't think anyone was surprised by it, although the fallout is more than I expected (being delisted from Team Liquid and then losing his Nvidia sponsorship).  There are strong feelings on the fallout itself, with some members of the community seeing it as an unnecessary witchhunt, while others think it's completely justified.  It does make him talking about how he achieved his success hilarious in retrospect.  Will Winter soldier on?  I think it depends on if his subscriber base sticks with him, but it's certainly going to limit his career in SC2 in the short term.  If he vanishes from the scene it will be interesting to see if his subscribers migrate to other streamers or not, but I would hope so.

I'm curious to see what will happen to the casting community once LOTV comes out.  There's been a huge overhaul on that score since HOTS came out.  Former MLG caster Axslav seems to be completely out of the scene (ala IPL casters Kevin Knocke and Kibbelz), but Axeltoss re-emerged at the Lone Star Clash about a year ago and may seek to reinsert himself.  Both Frodan and Gretorp (NASL alumni) have returned in some fashion--Frodan back from the collapse of ESGN and Hearthstone coaching, while Gretorp returns from poker.  I'm not sure if Khaldor is permanently attaching himself to the Heroes of the Storm scene, but it looks like Mr Bitter (NASL) is remaining off-camera in his work with Red Bull.  Of the names above, Bitter is the only one I'd like to see back.  Day9, despite the lack of content on his channel, still casts Redbull and BlizzConn, so has never been completely absent.  How much will these folks impact community people like Rifkin and ZombieGrub (BaseTradetv) remains to be seen.

It was a little weird seeing Paul Chaloner hosting IEM just after announcing his move from ESL to Gfinity.  IEM Katowice was a great tournament, even if we were stuck with a mirror match-up in the finals (which wasn't too bad as far as PvP goes).  The best series were in the R16 and R8, but that's not much of a surprise since players in the R4 and final have had time to see what strategies their opponents are going to use.  You can watch the replays here.

Finally, both Lycan and desRow have been running weekly cups recently and, assuming the former wants to keep paying for them, I think his is the most likely to last.  As much as I like desRow, he's not a caster and unless he wants to improve on that he's a drag on viewing his event.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)