StarCraft News & Notes

I was happy to read that DreamHack Leipzig (January 22nd-24th) is region-locking the first WCS Circuit Event, which avoids the visa loophole that exists in the system.  This provoked comment from the inestimable TotalBiscuit:

It will be interesting to see whether the 2016 "no Koreans" gamble pays off in viewership. I have my doubts

This is from Twitter and he subsequently posted audio on soundcloud about it which expanded on this idea considerably (it's clear, btw, from listening to TB that he hasn't watched much, if any, foreign SC2 this year).  Most people who talked to Blizzard, he said, agreed that WCS needed to be region-locked, but the same sentiment was not made about IEMs etc.  It seems pretty logical that if the first element is understood but there's no ESL-run WCS, then the other events have to fill-in, but TB doesn't address this point.  His argument for the Twitter comment above is that he believes viewership comes from quality of competition in SC2, which is an odd tact to take given the laundry list of unremarkable Koreans who have won these events the last three years (much like Stuchiu, he claims his point in inarguable).  He then dovetails into an argument that events like HomeStory Cup avoid the aforementioned problem by being unique and pushing forward the personalities of the players, but doesn't make the connection that a personality has to be backed by a modicum of success or no one cares (just one example, Neuro has a very distinct persona, but his viewership has been capped for quite a while because there's no results backing it--people like avilo who thrive despite a lack of results came into the scene before that door existed).  We then get this nonsensical statement:

We are going to see a lot of [Korean] B-teamers [retire] that are not being paid and they're kind of slaving away at a skill level which is higher than foreigners and yet the foreigners are reaping the rewards, you know they're rolling in the cash

This is pretty silly--there are very few foreign players "rolling in the cash" (other than Snute and Lilbow all the players are below the poverty line for 2015 based on winnings, which makes TB's subsequent comment that foreigners don't need the money a little ridiculous).  He then goes on to parrot that old chestnut that the Korean ladder is the be-all, end-all to results (see my previous post challenging the idea), and suggests adding Koreans to the NA ladder and then having it used to qualify players for tournaments, which is the best way I can imagine to asphyxiate the scene entirely (using the ladder as a qualifier is fine, but foreigners need to qualify to have incentive).  If SC2 is going to grow as an eSport the foreign scene needs a boost and nothing that permits parachuting Koreans is going to make that happen.  More fundamentally, his initial assumption is one that doesn't come from any evidence (which doesn't make it inherently invalid, but means it's just a guess).  There hasn't been a region-locked premier event since...WOL?  The biggest ones I can find in HOTS are SHOUTCraft (America was the last in December of 2013), but they were only 10k.  Here's what TB said about it:

As a pure business venture, SHOUTcraft America Winter can be considered a failure.  It did not provide the requisite ROI for the company providing the sponsorship [mobile service provider Ting].

The viewer numbers (not available on Fuzic because the event was run on MLG) topped out at 26k concurrent.  For those who haven't kept an eye on numbers, that's in-line with current DreamHack and IEM viewership (and keep in mind TB's was an online tournament).  It paled in comparison to the viewership of the European version TB ran in July (viewership for that was 32k and 49k), but I think what he said about it still applies broadly now:

Just to give you an idea of how potent the EU audience is, the EU viewership for SHOUTcraft America, beat America

And why is European viewership so strong?  It's the one scene Koreans can't play in with any regularity.  None of this guarantees that the upcoming DreamHack will post great numbers, but I find it puzzling why some fans don't make the connection that the only strong foreign scene is also the only one that local players are able to make money.  Virtually no foreigner outside Europe can really afford to be a full-time SC2 pro.

One thing TB's comments got me thinking about (unrelated to his specifics) is how much impact the casters have on SC2 events.  There are plenty of smaller tournaments floating around, but if you aren't Basetradetv these days the odds are you won't see much viewership regardless of the quality of the tourney.  This poses a conundrum for community content, as it means quality of players or event concept is not enough to sway viewers to come to your stream.  Poor Feardragon, the hero of the NA scene, has battled this particular problem for years.

Speaking of events, Nation Wars cancelled their live finale.  It's a smart move as attempting a live event for this concept doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  One of the problems Nation Wars has is we already know who will win it, so it's simply a matter of the process--who is in the final--along with enjoying the casters.  The change has altered the dates of when the matches will occur, but I don't see that as a big deal (there's no competition in early January).

I was curious what numbers the NA Koreans (or potential ones like TRUE) put up in 2015 against foreigners (in series) and it's staggering:

Hydra 126-15 (89%) - 4 of those losses were to Lilbow
TRUE 118-14 (89%) - 3 losses were to Neeb
Polt 47-6 (88%) - didn't lose to the same foreign player twice
Jaedong 55-8 (87%) - lost to Lilbow twice
StarDust 28-10 (73%) - lost twice to qxc
viOLet 44-19 (69%)

The top-four have insane winning percentages, as you'd expect, and the first two played an insane amount of games.  There have been a few funny loses from the collection: Hydra somehow lost to the now-inactive Scandicain as well as PandaBearMe; TRUE lost to EJK; StarDust lost to whoever WArchief was; and viOLet lost to Moosegills.  Regardless, it's easy to see how deflating it must be for most foreign players to face the top-four.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Thoughts on the WCS Changes

At long last Blizzard has announced the changes to WCS and there is a ton of information to absorb (TL tries to break it down, as does Stuchiu--I agree with the latter that they way things were disseminated could have been done better).  I was a fan of last year's WCS system (with a couple of minor reservations), but there's no denying that it had problems.  The major change for 2016 is the removal of the dominating structure that's existed throughout HOTS, so no more Challenger and Premier running most weeks of the year.  WCS will still have three championships a year driven by regional qualifiers, but these will occur in much tighter timeframes and rather than the ESL umbrella IEMs etc will run them.  There will be one less GSL/SSL, but more money pumped into those tournaments.  Along with those changes, the attempts to restrict the access of parachuting Koreans have been ramped up.  Korean players now must spend most of their time residing in the region they play in, and they must also play on the local ladder on a monthly basis (100 wins a month under their own ID, so 1,200 over the course of a year).  This won't prevent Hydra et al from dominating most tournaments, but it will mean that he and the other Koreans will be forced to invest more time playing against local players, giving them a chance to improve their play.

While I see the changes as positive, there are those who disagree.  From what I've seen and read these fans are either those only invested in the Korean scene (as ZombieGrub passionately makes clear), or those continuing to express the popular idea that in order to improve players need to be on the Korean ladder (generally you see these two views together).  I'm frankly blown away at how passionate this small group is about the first point, given that it translates to them apparently enjoying mid-tier Koreans destroying foreigners in lopsided events.  These fans show little to no interest in how much devastation parachuting Koreans have caused the foreign scene.  There also seems to be limited understanding of how other leagues have successfully grown their sport/eSport beyond its dominant region or country.  Let's explore both points in a bit more detail:

1. For the first point, while I can understand the disappointment of rarely seeing Koreans at foreign events (it's not mine, but I can empathise--I'd rather watch the GSL/SSL if I'm going to watch Koreans), it's beyond obvious that the foreign scene needs this change.  Despite hearing rhetoric that having Koreans participate in regional scenes can help, the reality is that it's virtually killed NA (and everywhere else that isn't Europe, which has also declined).  There's no evidence that the over-saturated version of WCS (2013-14) encouraged the growth or development of foreign players--instead there were mass retirements and vanishing viewership.  You simply cannot have growth outside of Korea without an existing structure that gets players paid (to give just one example from pro sports, European hockey nations that heavily restricted foreign participation have thrived and become competitive while those that did not remain stagnant).  Given that SC2 is not a team eSport, and SC2 foreign teams that pay are few and far between, there needs to be multiple tournaments where local players have a reasonable chance to make a living--otherwise a true pro scene is impossible.  Interestingly enough, critics worry about the economic fate of mid-tier Koreans without tangibly sharing that same concern for their foreign counterparts--when thinking of the latter suddenly the sentiment becomes the best players should win.  Stuchiu tells us:

Finally there doesn’t seem to be any plans to help low to mid-tier Korean players, so we should probably be getting another wave of retirements again as GSL and SSL continue to be top heavy.

The foreigner narrative in SC2 can never be as strong as it was in the past because of the region-lock. It seems counter-intuitive as there will be more events with foreigner-only events, however in the case of the best foreigners, the book has been closed. The reason is simple. While some people are trying to equate the region locked 2016 tournament circuit to the 2011/2012 circuit, that is simply disingenuous as it ignores one simple facet. Almost all of the LANs from 2011-2015 weren’t region-locked so foreigners could play against the best and prove they could beat the best..

This is one of those 'it's true but misses the point' statements--and trying to cram in the Korea/foreign situation from HOTS to that of WOL is absurd.  He knows full well that Korean participation in WOL was limited and didn't involve the KeSPA players--the foreign scene was also flush with money in the early days so players weren't as dependent on tournament winnings.  There's no attempt to explain why Blizzard needs to protect the livelihoods of the mid-tier Koreans (who may or may not need this protection), but not foreign players.  It smacks of regional bias, but one I think he's unaware of (I assume he believes a healthy scene is one where the money isn't stuck at the top, but this is exactly the problem in the foreign scene, but much more cripplingly so).  It's simply a fact that part-time players will always lose to full-time players and the skill-gap between Koreans and foreigners will only get worse the harder it is for foreigners to become full-time pros.

2. The Korean ladder is one of those funny arguments that's been around forever; let's quote Stuchiu:

The fastest way to improve as a player is to constantly play against better players over and over and Korea has by far the most depth of any server—that’s inarguable. It’s a great tool for anyone to practice on and one of the reasons as to why Koreans are always so sharp. With the lock down, players that had access to such a tool will naturally devolve.

There are two problems with this argument (which apparently is "inarguable"): 1) unless Stuchiu believes regions should settle on only playing on the Korean ladder, Blizzard's plan is the best way to improve and develop local ladders (he doesn't propose a way for foreign ladders improve); 2) our only evidence actually indicates the reverse of this argument: the best foreigners play in Europe, where the ping to Korea is unplayable (the benefit of both an insular ladder and a financed scene seems to allude him).  Rather than Europeans going to Korea and becoming the best, instead you see Europeans go to Korea when they are already the best.  Pros echo his sentiment, so I think it's one of those "facts" that's repeated so often that no one actually questions it anymore (you see this in professional sports as well, until enough evidence accrues to challenge it).  To me it's evident that targeted practice with good players (which you see within Korea), along with having no other obligations (school, work) is a big part of what develops the best players (the latter is one of the reasons you see older pros past their prime still do okay in the foreign scene).  That said, I don't expect many people to reject Stuchiu's point, as it's become almost an article of faith in the community.

Maybe Stuchiu (and others) have constructive arguments and plans, but all I've seen thus far are emotional reactions expressing a lot of fear for the Korean scene.  Time will tell if the current approach is right, as there's no guarantee that what Blizzard is doing is going to work, but it's clearly a move in the right direction (viewership numbers recovered slightly in 2015 with most of the Koreans pushed out; 2016 will now give foreigners outside of Europe a chance to get paid).  I've seen no alternatives proposed that doesn't essentially give us the same system we're leaving (which everyone acknowledges doesn't work).  StarCraft needs to grow if it wants to survive as an eSport.  None of this is going to make those disappointed by the changes any happier and I'm sure we'll hear their voices all year long about it, but if there were enough fans who shared their sentiments SC2 wouldn't be struggling the way it is.  I'll give Destiny the final word here:

People keep mixing this up. Blizzcon/WCS is supposed to produce the best player in the world, HOWEVER, the top 16 players are not supposed to be the 16 best players in the world, they're supposed to represent the regions they came from. There's a huge difference.  For a lot of people, it's more fun than watching 16 Koreans they don't care about.

With a rhetorical add:

College football players are nowhere near as good as NFL, so no one would ever watch them play, right?

This is similar to what iNcontroL and others have said as well.  All-in-all I'm looking forward to seeing how the new system works out.  One final little aside: these changes should be a boon to the Olimoleague, as top Koreans will have more time and incentive to play in it; this should create space for other smaller Korean tournaments as well.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

It has been awhile since I posted--I've been waiting for the WCS announcement and while hints and rumours have been floating around there's been nothing definitive (Richard Lewis reported that the ESL-run WCS-style tourney is gone).  Amongst the various bits of panic TotalBiscuit, CatZ, and others have appealed for calm and patience and that's where I stand as well.  There's no question that a WCS-system of some sort will continue, it's simply a matter of in what form.

I watched some of DreamHack Winter, which suffered from far too much down time.  Viewership was okay (a touch higher than Tours which was the prior 2015 high), but without a noticeable LOTV bump--I think the reason for that is a mix of the game's current balance along with the aforementioned dragging broadcast.

On a more positive note Nation Wars has been a blast and a small window into the form of various players in LOTV (from Stephano being terrible to Serral excelling).  It was also interesting to see PartinG lose to two foreign Zerg players (the aforementioned Finn as well as Petraeus).

BaseTrade has been running $100 regional cups via Corsair--I would have preferred them all region-locked (doesn't matter as much for EU because of the lag, admittedly), but c'est la vie (the NA-locked tourney suffered a bit from running just before ROOT's $2,000-tourney).  Regardless, lot's of fun and I've enjoyed them casting regularly again.

The Rival StarCraft League continues (you can see replays here); their Invitational was a few weeks ago with Bly beating PiLiPiLi in the final.

Kotaku wrote about the life of pro and semi-pro gamers focusing on Pokebunny (but also talking about former streamer Ms Spyte), and what stood out for me were the former's comments:

In the summer of 2012 I was going into my senior year of high school, and I thought that as soon as I finished I’d jump fully into StarCraft and go live in a team house and all that stuff. I didn’t think I wanted to go to college. I just wanted to keep playing, and that slowly changed over the course of that year. As more and more Koreans got involved it became harder for Americans to stay relevant who didn’t play full-time. Pretty much all I did was go to school and play StarCraft, but I still wasn’t full-time. It was inevitable that at a certain point I wouldn’t be able to keep up.

The American Terran hasn't kept completely out of the scene since he ended regular play in the summer of 2012--he last competed in the WCS qualifiers in season one, 2015.

Speaking of ex-pros, TitaN has re-emerged with LOTV.  I don't know if he's returning to competitive play or simply to streaming, but I'll never forget him losing to Snute in the old swarm host days where 12 bases to 4 wasn't enough.

I stumbled across MCanning's stream recently and highly recommend it (he was recently added to Flipsid3 Tactics).  I recognized the name from WCS qualifiers, but he normally streams too late for me so it was serendipity I found his stream.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

BlizzCon was a fantastic success as the last WCS tournament in HOTS featured both the best lineup since the system was created along with the best final we've seen.  In terms of predictions Zerg players, particularly Life, wrecked Aligulac (and my) calls throughout the bracket, although I did successfully predict the winner in sOs (overall I was 10-5 and Aligulac was 11-4--albeit the latter failing to pick the winner).  sOs went 13-5 in the tournament, winning a nailbiter against PartinG along the way, while Life was 12-6, with Classic posing the main threat before the final.  In general aggressive play dominated the tournament and Terrans fell by the wayside early.  The casting and hosting was excellent and the stage looked fantastic--all bodes well for LOTV moving forward.  As for viewership it was better than 2014, but came a short of 2013:

Interestingly enough, 2014's peak viewership remains the high for HOTS (155k), as MMA's clash against Life was apparently the biggest draw (2013 peaked at 142k, this year at 149k).  What the numbers do indicate is that while HOTS failed to grow the game, it remains relatively stable with its core audience.  As for HOTS in terms of performance, when it came to best-on-best competition (GSL, SSL, this year's BlizzCon, and 2014's IEM finale):
2013: Soulkey, Maru, Dear
2014: Zest, sOs (IEM), Classic, INnoVation
2015: Life, Rain, Classic (SSL), herO (SSL), INnoVation, sOs
Overall Protoss took the most championships (8), with Terran and Zerg roughly even (3 and 2).  I'd gauge sOs and INnoVation as the best/most consistent players of the expansion.  The era also witnessed the virtual death of the NA pro scene and the falling off of most well-known foreign WOL pros; on the positive side we also saw new talent rise en masse out of France.

The Future of StarCraft panel talked about what's coming to LOTV and the most significant thing are upcoming changes to the ladder:

Currently, we plan on combining all of the Grandmaster and Master league divisions into one. In this new large division, the top 200 player are Grandmaster players. However, if you make it to the top, you can't rest on your laurels, because those below you can easily bump you out! This will allow the competitive experience to remain active in this tier of players. 

Players in the middle and lower tiers want to know how close they are to advancing, and so our current solution is for each league to have 10 subdivisions to more clearly define a player’s skill. This means that if you’re a Gold 1 player, you’re among the best Gold players in the world and are close to reaching the Platinum tier. Divisions also won’t have a player cap – so if you’re ranked as Silver 5, you know you belong there because of your skill level, and not simply because another division has filled up. Finally, since rank isn’t currently indicative of skill, we’re looking at different ways of awarding points so that participation matters less than skill. 

For players in the lowest league, improving is inevitable with practice and we want those improvements to be quickly reflected in your rank. In Wings of Liberty, about 20 percent of players were Bronze, so even if you were drastically improving in your skill you were still stuck in the lowest division. With ten subdivisions, it should become clear that you’re improving because you’ll begin moving up through subdivisions that have clear meaning. 

We also plan to reduce the overall size of Bronze, since the difference in skill between someone at the bottom versus the top of Bronze is comparable to the difference in skill between the bottom of Silver and the top of Platinum.

Those are all positive changes and for those players at lower skill levels it will be a relief to not get annihilated by much better players on the ladder with regularity.

TotalBiscuit's latest version of ShoutCraft is almost upon us.  The invitation-only tournament features a variety of Koreans--five are among the top-25 in WCS points (ParTing, Zest, TY, Rogue, and Solar), while there are two fan-favourites in Bomber and Stork, with ByuN thrown in for good measure (perhaps due to his Proleague results).  I'm not sure what quality of games we'll see and I'm not normally that invested in invitation-only tournaments, but given the timing and casters I'll check it out.

With LOTV in its "final" version (at least to start) my primary concern from watching the beta is parasitic bomb in ZvT which seems overpowered--the next few weeks and months should make that clear.

It's funny how player returns to SC2 turn out.  You may recall that CombatEX returned with some fanfare back in June, but he's already disappeared (at least as a streamer).  Whatever his actual intentions he barely put in any effort to stream and hasn't done so since August.  This doesn't mean he couldn't reappear and I think the scene is better the more streamers/personalities it has.

As it has been awhile since my last news digest a few things have been floating around that I'll comment on briefly:
-Chanman has brought back Unfiltered--the cynical part of me thought it might be just after his Reddit ban expired, but that ban may have been for life.  The SC2 content is very light, but I think the show is entertaining
-Speaking of light SC2 content, The Late Game's revamp has been very bland of late, due to  Destiny not playing LOTV beta of late leaving only iNcontroL's very safe (and brief) answers to whatever Lycan asks him--I think the show would have been better off with at least one more person involved to generate conversation.  However, as Destiny is committed to playing LOTV on release I think it will improve going forward
-A couple of months ago Rifkin made what I thought was an offensive and stupid joke at the expense of avilo--a safe target to go after and there wasn't much fallout, but I hope this is the last time something like this comes up
-JaKaTaK (I lost the link, but it's among his semi-recent videos) said he's not going to discuss balance in LOTV, something I found a bit surprising, but it fits the Day9 approach of steering clear of balance and focusing on the other elements of the game

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

BlizzCon Predictions

It has been awhile since I posted, but with the end of the WCS season at hand it's time to break out the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will be the final HOTS champion.  For the first time in the WCS system we finally have something close to the best sixteen players competing (although no one thinks any of those who played outside Korea would have made it if they had to play there--that said, the three players are good enough to make things interesting).  It's worth keeping in mind that the Koreans participating in the GSL and SSL have been playing on old map pools (the GSL's is particularly ancient).  Because this WCS finale has mostly correct seeding, I wouldn't expect many upsets in the R16.

herO vs FanTaSy - the Smiling Assassin gets the edge (63%), although they are 3-3 against one another and the Terran has been better in TvP of late; that said, if you comb through herO's history this year he's 11-5 in the match-up and I'd put no stock in his loss to Reality at the MCSL tourney in mid-October; in meaningful games he's lost to Maru (twice), Dream, and Bbyong.  FanTaSy has more of a track record to look at, with an overall 16-13 record, which is less impressive in terms of who he's lost too and who he's beaten--so I'd stick with the odds here

ByuL vs Classic - the Protoss is favoured (60%), with a perfect 6-0 record against his opponent; Classic is 12-5 in PvZ this year, while his opponent is 17-6 (!)--ByuL did lose to Classic the one time they faced each other (in May in the SSL) and it was very one-sided (3-0); there's potential for an upset here, but a lot of ByuL's success is predicated on that GSL map pool (8-2 with it, 9-4 without it), so I'll stick with the odds

INnoVation vs Zest - the macro monster is favoured (81%) over his Protoss opponent; the Terran is 21-6 in TvP and he's beat Zest the last two times they played (both fairly recently); the Protoss is 9-7 in the match-up and while he could win this series there's nothing in the numbers to suggest he will

Lilbow vs Life - the Zerg is favoured (55%) and although he's barely played foreigners this year he beat Lilbow twice back in April; the real question isn't about the Korean however, but the French Protoss player--despite a good record against the B-grade Koreans of late, I see no hope for him here (a win here for the Frenchmen would be the biggest upset of the round)

Rain vs Polt - Captain America has avoided serious Korean competition since the advent of the WCS system and despite inflated percentages from doing so he's still the underdog (41%); Polt hasn't played a Korean Protoss since January (losing to herO) and his last significant win was against Rain in early 2014; the Protoss player is very good in PvT (10-2) of late and should have no problem winning against his declining opponent

PartinG vs sOs - quite possibly the most entertaining PvP we'll see in HOTS, sOs is heavily favoured (70%), despite being 5-5 in the matchup of late; PartinG has been worse (3-7), although its fair to say some of those loses were in small competitions he wasn't taking very seriously; the two players haven't faced each other in a series since 2013, but without anything amiss in their recent history the odds seem fair

Hydra vs Dream - the ROOT player left Korea to avoid the difficult competition and here at BlizzCon he'll see if he can do more than simply qualify; he's a heavy favourite (75%), bolstered by his lopsided record against foreigners, but he also holds a 5-2 edge against his opponent (although none of those matches are from this year); almost all of Hydra's wins against Korean Terrans are versus non-GSL competition; Dream's TvZ record is not good (6-9), although most of his loses are against the best Zerg players and he has no results more recent than July; I like the upset here as I think Hydra's play has declined significantly the past few months--this is, however, one of the best opponents he could have hoped for

Maru vs Rogue - the Terran is favoured (61%) with a solid head-to-head history (7-4), including beating him just a month ago in the GSL; both players are 6-4 in the match-up of late; there's nothing here to suggest an upset and Maru is the better player, so I'd stick with the odds here

Aligulac has herO, Classic, INnoVation, Life, Rain, sOs, Hydra, and Maru moving forward.  I agree with all except Hydra (so I have Dream moving forward).  For those keeping track, all eight players Aligulac picked have won premier tournaments this year (my pick lost one)--all three GSL and both SSL champs move on in either scenario.  There's certainly potential for other upsets--ByuL, Zest (largely on the basis of his opponents stubbornness when it comes to strategy), PartinG (because he's PartinG), and Hydra/Dream (depending on which prediction you prefer), but for the most part the higher seeded player is the better player.

Here's the Round of 8 following the predictions above:

herO vs Classic - the latter is favoured (64%), with a slight edge head-to-head (13-10), but having beaten him the last three series they've faced each other; Classic is also 8-2 in PvP of late, so while this could easily go either way the trends are with the favourite

INnoVation vs Life - once again the Terran is heavily favoured (80%), and he has the historical edge against his opponent (25-18), having won the last three times they've played each other; Life has been awful in ZvT lately (3-9), although he's one of those talented players who can just dominate at times; still, with an 11-1 record in the matchup recently I'll stick with INnoVation

Rain vs sOs - the former BlizzCon champ is again favoured (63%), although they are 11-11 head-to-head; both players are 5-5 in the match-up of late and split their last two matches against each other; to me this is a toss up, although given how sOs tends to show up when there's big money on the line I see an edge here

Dream vs Maru - not surprisingly the latter is favoured (65%), although they're close head-to-head (13-11) and 2-2 in series this year; Maru is 8-3 in TvT of late, while Dream is 6-4; with the numbers so close reputation and Aligulac have to sway opinions so I'll stick with the favourite; if Hydra is here than Maru is a very slight favourite (50%), which I think is far too generous to the ROOT player (who I think has no hope if he gets here). [With the results of the R16 we have one match-up that I never included, Rogue vs Hydra - Aligulac gives the ROOT player a slight edge (56%).]

I agree with Aligulac here that Classic, INnoVation, sOs, and Maru move forward, but these matches are much more in doubt that the R16 and all four could go the other way.  Going by the odds the most likely upset would be Rain or herO moving forward (no surprise that these are via PvP).

The Semi-finals (R4):

Classic vs INnoVation - once again the Terran is favoured (73%), with a 5-4 edge against the Protoss player; the Terran is 10-3 in the match-up of late, while Classic is 6-6, and while he beat his opponent the last time they played it was in a monthly cup rather than something that really mattered; one bit of notable trivia: the Terran is not particularly good in TvP in BO5s--he's 1-5 the last two years, while the Protoss player is 4-3; I feel like with INnoVation's stubborn playstyle creates an upset here.  Here are the odds of other potential matchups: herO vs INnoVation favours the Terran (70%); Classic vs Life slightly favours the Protoss (51%); herO vs Life slightly favours the Zerg (50%)

sOs vs Maru - this series is likely to be a lot of fun with two super aggressive players; Aligulac favours sOs (58%), although the two have only played each other once (with the Terran winning); both playres are 6-3 in the match-up of late; I like the odds, as sOs seems to lose against slower-paced Terrans rather than the frenetic pace of his opponent.  Here are the other potential matchups: Maru vs Rain favours the Protoss (55%), sOs vs Dream favours the Protoss (56%), and Dream vs Rain favours the latter (53%).  [With the results of the R16 in we have to envision either Hydra or Rogue in the R4, so Rain is a 51% favourite over the former and a 64% favourite over the latter; sOs is a 58% favourite vs the ROOT player and 70% favourite vs the latter.] {Now that we know Rogue is the player here, his Protoss opponent is a huge favourite (70%)}

Aligulac foresee's INnoVation and sOs, while I have Classic facing the former BlizzCon champ.  Following the most likely upsets from the R8, Aligulac would still have INnoVation moving forward and would have Rain in place of sOs.

Finals

Classic vs sOs - the latter is favoured (56%), with an 8-4 record against his opponent; Classic has the better recent PvP record and beat his opponent the last time they played and I think has overall been better at PvP this year, so I'll take the upset.  If Aligulac is right and this is INnoVation they favour  (64%) him, although sOs has an 8-1 record against him and I'd think the master of Protoss cheese would do very well against someone as macro-focused as his opponent, so I'd take the upset here too.  If this is Rain vs INnoVation (following the alternative above) the latter is still favoured (68%)

Classic is my winner, with Aligulac picking INnoVation.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Season Three: Looking Back

I'm a bit late getting this out, but better late than never.  The third and final season in 2015 is in the books and Krakow delivered the most exciting event of the year.  The crowd was fantastic, there were upsets, and for the first time in WCS history there was a foreign winner of their own event.  Not surprisingly, the viewership was WCS' highest over the past two years:

There were a number of great stories at the event--whether it was MaNa having a tour de force in his home country; Lilbow beating three Koreans on his win to victory; Jaedong's BlizzCon dreams crashing as yet another Korean (ForGG) knocked him out; Zanster nearly making it into the final, and on and on.  Virtually everything ESL could have hoped for they got, including some fantastic games (just a couple of examples: the third game between Hydra and Lilbow as well as Lilbow's base trade with MaNa in the final).

How about predictions?  Rather than just look at season three, here's how the whole year panned out for myself, Team Liquid (TL), and Aligulac:

R32*
Aligulac 35-13 (9-7, 12-4, 14-2)
Me 28-20 (8-8, 9-7, 11-5)
TL 28-20 (7-9, 11-5, 10-6)
R16
Me 20-4 (7-1, 7-1, 6-2)
Aligulac 17-7 (6-2, 6-2, 5-3)
TL 16-8 (5-3, 6-2, 5-3)
R8**
Me 9-3 (2-2, 4-0, 3-1)
Aligulac 8-4 (3-1, 4-0, 2-2)
R4/Final
Me 7-2 (2-1, 3-0, 2-1)
Aligulac 5-4 (1-2, 2-1, 2-1)
Total
Aligulac 93-42 (68%)
Me 91-44 (67%)
TL 44-28 (61%)

*I didn't fully predict or check Aligulac in season one of Challenger and I only have TL's predictions for season three (14-7); when I did check Aligulac was 28-14 (15-6, 13-8) and I was 27-15 (13-8, 14-7)
**TL didn't post predictions beyond the R16

I lost out to Aligulac by the slightest of margins in overall predictions, although it's some solace that from the R16 onward I was more accurate (36-9 vs 30-15).

With LOTV around the corner it seems a bit redundant to go into map results, but the usual balance in Premier is worth a look:
PvZ 11-9
ZvT 6-7
TvP 4-8

Clearly the baguette-style proved triumphant in the swan song of HOTS (if my foggy memory is correct, every third season in HOTS has seen an upswing for Protoss).  As for Koreans vs non-Koreans, they were 13-6 in season three, by far their worst showing yet--quite surprising given that they were 9-1 in the R32 and all of them moved on to the R16.

All that remains for WCS in HOTS is BlizzCon with its vast sea of GSL Koreans who will be expected to make short work of Hydra, Polt, and Lilbow (although one never knows--perhaps the three will be aided by GSL using a very antiquated map pool--but I doubt it).  It should be the best WCS final yet, at least in terms of overall talent.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Predictions: R8 to the Finals

The R16 is in the books and before getting on to the next set of predictions here's a quick look at how the things turned out for the just completed round:
Me: 6-2
TL/Aligulac: 5-3
The results are similar to season two and season one (as R16's go in 2015 I'm 20-4, Aligulac is 17-7, and TL is 16-8).  The biggest surprise was Zanster making it through in Group A (no one predicted it).  Hydra losing to Elazer was a surprise in itself, but (just like when he lost to MorroW in season one) he beat him in the rematch.

The Round of 8 (I'll add TL's predictions when they appear).

Zanster vs GunGFuBanDa - the Swede gets the slightest of edges (52%), holding a 2-0 record against his opponent; both players have had mixed results in the match-up of late and both did well in it in the previous round; GunGFuBanDa seems to have a predictable style in the match-up and I think that's exploitable, so I'll give this one to Zanster

Lilbow vs Hydra - while the ROOT player is beatable, and the odds aren't too egregious (53%), I see it going to the Korean; it's a rough draw for Lilbow who, given virtually any other opponent, would be a lock to move forward--if he wins here he has a clear path to the final

Polt vs ForGG - this could be the best series of the round (it's also a re-match from season one); Aligulac favours the latter (63%), and while ForGG has the head-to-head record edge (9-5), he did lose their previous encounter 3-2--he also has a reputation for choking in tournaments, while Polt is known to elevate his play; that said, he did go toe-to-toe with INnoVation not long ago and I like the idea of him having one lass hurrah before he does his military service

Petraeus vs MaNa - the Kiwi is favoured (54%), but the Polish player is a PvZ monster and I don't think his loss to Zanster is a sign of systemic weakness, so I like the upset here

Aligulac has Zanster, Hydra, ForGG, and Petraeus moving on; my list is similar except I have MaNa instead of Petraeus.  Assuming my results:

Zanster vs Hydra - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (72%) and the Swede has not won a ZvZ series against a Korean since 2013, so there's not much room for doubt here.  If this is GunGFuBanDa the Korean is given even better odds (85%).

ForGG vs MaNa - the Korean has the edge (65%), despite a losing record against his Polish opponent (5-8) and recent struggles in TvP against foreigners; on the other hand, MaNa has not had much success against Korean Terrans lately (2-5, including a loss to ForGG); as nice as the Cinderella-story would be for MaNa on his home soil, I'll stick with the Korean.  If this is Polt instead, he's even more heavily favoured (76%).  If Petraeus is here instead of the Polish Protoss, ForGG is only slightly favoured (56%), while the Kiwi is actually favoured against Polt (53%), having a good record against second-tier Korean Terrans as well as a win over Captain America himself (at MSI).

Aligulac and I favour the two Koreans.  The finals:

Hydra vs ForGG - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (72%), although the Terran beat him the only time they've met (2-0); Hydra is 7-4 against Korean Terrans of late, while ForGG has only played one Korean in the match-up over the same period (beating Jaedong in the R16); looking at Hydra's recent history he seems to struggle against meching Koreans, so perhaps that's the edge that ForGG needs--I like the upset here.

Aligulac has Hydra repeating as champion, while I have ForGG earning his first WCS title.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS R16 Predictions

The R16 gets underway tomorrow so with a reminder that Hitman was replaced by Elazer (eliminating the last NA player in WCS), it's time to wind up the Aligulac machine and make predictions (TL's predictions can be found here):

Group A

MarineLorD vs elfi - the French Terran is favoured (57%); he's 8-3 in series against foreign Protoss of late, including a win over Has who plays a similar style to the Finn; elfi has barely played any Terran's of late (he's 1-2 over the same period), but losing to frozz doesn't bode well and he has no wins over any Terran of MarineLorD's caliber, so I'll stick with the odds here
MaNa vs Zanster - the Polish player is favoured (62%), and he's been almost bullet proof since the swarmhost patch in PvZ (17-2, with losses only to TargA and Bly); the Swede, in contrast, essentially hasn't beat a decent Protoss player since the patch (NaNiwa back in May is the closest), so I like the odds
Losers
elfi vs Zanster - the Swede is a slight favourite (54%); the Finn hasn't played much lately (he's 6-2 since the patch), but I think Zanster's wins apply more here (27-10); I don't have strong feelings either way so I'll rely on Aligulac
Winners
MarineLorD vs MaNa - Aligulac has this as a virtual coin toss, with the French Terran getting the edge (51%), but the Polish player has been awful in PvT lately (2-8), so it's easy to stick with the odds
Finals
MaNa vs Zanster - rematches often go to the loser, but given the Swede's struggles against better Protoss players I think MaNa will win again here

Both Aligulac and I have MarineLorD and MaNa moving forward (TL agrees).

Group B

Snute vs Sen - this would have been a clash of the titans a year or two ago, but now the Norwegian is heavily favoured (68%); ZvZ is a Snute specialty and he's 21-4 of late; the Taiwanese player is strong in ZvZ in his own region, but losing to Suppy just a few months back is not a good sign and I see no hope for him here
GungFuBanDa vs Petraeus - the Kiwi is a strong favourite (64%); the German has barely played PvZ since the patch (5-3, including a win over his opponent), whereas the Kiwi has played a ton, unfortunately it's mostly against low to mid-tier players--it's hard to see where either is in the match-up, so I'll stick to the odds
Losers
GungFuBanDa vs Sen - the German is favoured (58%) and given the limited available track record for both players (the Zerg has only five ZvP series played against foreigners in the last five months) I'll lean on those odds
Winners
Snute vs Petraeus - once again the Norwegian is favoured (56%) and the Kiwi hasn't had a win over a good Zerg opponent since beating Nerchio back in April, so it's easy to stick with Aligulac
Finals
Petraeus vs GungFuBanDa - I think we'll see the WCS trend of the rematch going to the previous loser come through here

Aligulac and TL have Snute and Petraeus making it through, whereas I have the Norwegian and GungFuBanDa.

Group C

Polt vs viOLet - the Terran is favoured (53%), but has only one win over a Korean Zerg in 2015 (he's 0-10 otherwise), while his roommate and opponent is 7-2 against Korean Terrans--it's funny to say that someone who has failed as hard as viOLet in WCS could win here, but the numbers suggest he will
Hydra vs Elazer - the ROOT player is obviously the favourite (84%) and I see no reason to debate that
Losers
Polt vs Elazer - Captain America is heavily favoured (71%) and despite the Polish player beating ForGG recently I see no hope for him here (it's worth noting that Polt did lose to Petraeus recently)
Winners
Hydra vs viOLet - the percentages make you think the ROOT player is facing a foreigner (72%); given the latter's 1-8 vs Koreans in the matchup )including two losses to Hydra), it's not surprising
Finals
Polt vs viOLet - the raw numbers above would give this to the Zerg player again, but we also have the usual WCS feature of rematches going to the loser--this series means a lot more to Captain America than his roommate (who also has a much better tournament track record), so I'll take him here

Aligulac has Hydra and viOLet moving forward while I (and TL) have the ROOT player and Polt.

Group D

ForGG vs iaguz - the Korean is massively favoured (89%) and the only question is does the Aussie have any chance at all--I don't see it, although it's worth mentioning he beat Journey back in March
Jaedong vs Lilbow - interestingly, the French player is heavily favoured (63%), despite the Tyrant not having lost to a foreign Protoss since February (he's 22-0 since), whereas Lilbow hasn't had much success against Korean Zergs; I take the "upset" here
Losers
iaguz vs Lilbow - the French player is heavily favoured (74%) and has only lost to the best foreign Terrans over the last four months; the Aussie has beat good Protoss players recently (PtitDrogo and  MaNa), but I don't see him winning here
Winners
ForGG vs Jaedong - the Terran is favoured (55%); oddly, he hasn't played a Korean Zerg in almost six months, while the Tyrant has barely played any Korean Terrans--it's tough to call, as Jaedong seems to have improved of late while ForGG has looked shaky, but my feelings aren't that strong so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Jaedong vs Lilbow - will the rematch curse come to fruition?  I'd like Lilbow to get through and that jives with Aliguac, so I'll put the French player through

Aligulac and I have ForGG and Lilbow go through, while TL has the French player and Jaedong.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

There have been five posts from Blizzard since my last news digest, so in order:

-August 14th: with Koreans finally using the raven-centric mech that's existed in the foreign scene forever, there's a balance panic about it (rather than realizing the GSL is using an old map pool that allows for that kind of play); unfortunately the thought of doing something with the moribund Swarmhosts is suggested--what will it take to get this unit out of the game?  It's a poorly designed and conceived even in LOTV.  The biggest element of the post were planned changes to macro mechanics in the beta (the removal of MULEs, chrono, etc), about which more below.

-August 19th: automated tournaments were added to the LOTV beta, which I think is fantastic

-August 20th: macro mechanics were removed in the beta, which lead to a wide range of reactions--I like the general idea, although admittedly it's not balanced yet.  Qxc offered his thoughts shortly afterwards and concludes:

The most interesting parts of Starcraft have to do with unit design, map control and micro. Without good macro, players cannot really experience those other aspects. By reducing the macro requirements, Starcraft can become a game that’s less about producing as much stuff as possible and more focused on the more compelling parts of the game at all skill levels. Newer players will have less to worry about in terms of production so they can focus on the more interesting parts of Starcraft while more skilled players will be able to expand their army movements and multitasking. In addition, the increase in multitasking and army movements will help improve the overall viewer experience as there’s more conflict and interaction between the players during the game. Although the balance involved in their removal might not be there yet, there’s still plenty of time to tweak the numbers. Overall, the removal of macro mechanics helps push Starcraft to be a game more about army positioning, strategy, micro and more rather than a game that’s more focused on who can make the most stuff.

I agree with his sentiments.

-August 21st: changes to the Swarmhosts were put in a balance map because Blizzard wants me to hate watching ZvP again--I'm not sure why it's been so hard for the designers to realise the unit simply doesn't function as designed--they were created to break siege lines and I'm not sure I've ever seen that actually happen as envisioned; now it's a bizarre, Frankenstein-unit half-built to harass and half-built to battle tanks--the moment it becomes affordable Zerg players will just start massing them again in unintended ways.  The other element here discussed were thoughts on Protoss design--look, Blizzard, the ship has sailed on the perception of Protoss--people are going to whine about the race even when they start producing marines out of barracks--just ignore the white noise and focus on keeping the flavour and making things balanced.

-August 28th: they acknowledged the balance issues with the macro changes and are taking the approach of autocasts for the other races--it's a decent idea and should help balance things a bit.  There were also thoughts on getting Protoss balanced and they seem like steps in the right direction (Theo's post below is a bit more meaty).  One other note: they're (finally) talking about moving overlord drop to Lair-tech.

One thing that's become apparent in reading the feedback is how much more the opinions from Korea mean to the developers:

We agree with the Korean pros/community on this point - that because Starcraft 2 is already one of the most difficult games to master by far out there, and LotV added much more skill needed to play, helping out on this end looks to be the correct move.

I wonder if this understandable tunnel vision is part of the reason responses to issues in the foreign scene have taken so long (Brood Lord/Infestor, Swarmhosts, region lock, etc).

Speaking of feedback, Theo has a fantastic post about LOTV balance with suggested unit changes etc.

Mr. Bitter was unhappy with the viewership for the Red Bull BattleGrounds Archon tournament over the weekend (whose peak average was 8k; my favourite part was this), which surprises me.  It was scheduled against both WCS and the MSI tournament, featuring a secondary element of the beta (archon mode) topped by various semi-retired/second-tier pros (I'm also not a fan of the tournament format--it's distinctive, but not very interesting).  I've seen people complain about the hosts, but I don't think that was an issue.  The best case scenario for Red Bull is to steer clear of competing tournaments and recognize that archon-mode won't achieve the viewership of standard SC2 any time soon (perhaps in the future, but not now).  Even running a normal LOTV tournament makes little sense right now because the balance just isn't there.

I didn't see much of the MSI tournament, but there were good games and I liked the casters (Rotti/ToD).

Hell it's Aboot Time has come and gone and I really enjoyed it (ZombieGrub posted her thoughts yesterday--apparently they were disappointed with the views for the event, which surprises me--perhaps they were expecting HomeStory Cup levels?).  Wardii got the English B-stream, and while I still find him a bit laconic I was glad to have options for which game I was watching (Taketv provided German language coverage).  Rifkin and ZombieGrub went out of their way to make the event amazing for those who attended and certainly repaid the good will they've built up in the community.  The only criticism I can offer is that the tournament would have been much more distinctive as either a NA-only or foreigner-only event; there hasn't been a major, non-national event without Koreans since (I think) TotalBiscuit's ShoutCraft America (back in 2013).

Cyan offers a retrospective on StarCraft on the TL website and comes to the logical conclusion that WCS needs a real region lock:

When it comes to eSports in general, this data suggests that the most important thing to stimulate growth is to ensure that the professional scene is locally involved. Try to base your scene as locally as possible. If you want to grow your scene in one region, focus your efforts and attention in that region. A European team winning an American tournament won’t stimulate as much growth in America as if an American team were to win. It does seem like fairly common sense.

Thorin interviewed Stuchiu to talk about the great players of SC2 and it's well worth the read.  Stuchiu also just posted an article looking at the historical state of the various match-ups in SC2.

Farhad Manjoo looks at the impact of Ad Block on the Internet.  It's a long article, but in essence concludes:

in the long run, there could be a hidden benefit to blocking ads for advertisers and publishers: Ad blockers could end up saving the ad industry from its worst excesses. If blocking becomes widespread, the ad industry will be pushed to produce ads that are simpler, less invasive and far more transparent about the way they’re handling our data — or risk getting blocked forever if they fail.

The ad industry certainly won't get rid of Ad Block except through the cold, dead hands of consumers (streamers complaining about it don't help their cause--rather than attacking viewers, encourage them to watch your ads or support you in other ways).  Less intrusive and more interesting ads are (hopefully) the wave of the future.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS: Looking Back at the Round of 32

The R32 is in the books and rather than delve into ForGG retiring after BlizzCon or the R16 matchups, I'd like to look back on the round that was.  I thought the most entertaining groups were D and E, while there was an abundance of one-sided series' in general.  The biggest upset was Hitman getting through, although taking out Elazer he's hardly knocking off one of the titan's of Europe.  The Chinese players all crashed and burned this season, with Shana and Jim the only 0-4's of the round.  Here's how predictions turned out:
Aligulac: 14-2 (!)
Me: 11-5
TL: 10-6

Both are personal bests this year for me and Aligulac (whose success approaches the ridiculous), while TL dipped ever so slightly.  For whatever reason the R32 has always been hardest for me, while the later rounds get easier--this is the opposite trend for both Aligulac and TL (thus far).

Racial balance
PvZ 5-6
TvP 3-5
ZvT 4-4

Map balance
Coda (22) PvZ 5-6 TvP 2-4 ZvT 3-2
Cactus Valley (15) ZvT 2-4 PvZ 3-2 TvP 1-3
Terraform (12) PvZ 3-3 ZvT 2-2 TvP 2-0
Iron Fortress (9) TvP 2-3 PvZ 1-3
Bridgehead (5) ZvT 3-0 PvZ 1-1

Dash and Terminal (3) PvZ 1-1 ZvT 0-1

Moonlight Madness (3) TvP 1-2

The Koreans make it hard to interpret these numbers, whose only notable is a seeming edge for Zerg in ZvT on Bridgehead.  Coda remains the most popular map, with Terraform replacing Iron Fortress as the third most after Challenger.

Viewership
NA broadcasts
Group A 23k
Group B 18k
Group C 24k
Group D 25k
EU broadcasts
Group E 17k
Group F 18k
Group G 16k
Group H 15k
Average: 20k; NA 23k, EU 17k

This is a drop off from previous seasons (viewership through seasons one and two was pretty similar), with about 3k less viewers overall and a significant drop for the EU streams.  I'm not sure if the drop can be blamed on LOTV coming soon, the inevitable march of the Koreans, or that the days were so short (incidentally, those who'd argue Koreans draw viewers should note the most watched stream, Group D, had no Koreans and only one top-foreigner).  The quality of games was not that great overall, featuring few memorable (or long) matches.  At any rate, statistically it's not the biggest of drops so there's no point in dissecting it too much.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Predictions: Groups E-H

The second half of the R32 of WCS starts today so it's back to predictions for me.  At the moment Aligulac is 7-1, while TL and I are 5-3.  There have been no major upsets or surprises, with elfi the only player to make it to the R16 who hasn't been there before this year (TL predictions):

Group E
Lilbow vs Neeb - the French player is an overwhelming favourite (77%); the American's limited history as a Protoss isn't that helpful, nor is his (relative) dominance in PvP in the NA scene; I see no reason to question the odds
Shana vs GunGFuBanDa - the German is also a heavy favourite (72%); the Chinese Terran's record is almost inscrutable--he's been good lately in his local scene, but as most of his opponents are players we never see it's hard to know what to think about it; the German's PvT is more explicably, but outside Germany it's more spotty; in the absence of information I'll stick with Aligulac
Losers
Neeb vs Shana - the American is slightly favoured (56%), but despite having been a Terran he's struggled in PvT (3-5 in series since the switch); the Chinese player has a much better record of late (11-1), but it's so hard to gauge his level without knowing the players he's beating (think about how the similarly obscure Mystery got crushed in season two), so I'll stick with the known quantity and go with the American
Winners
Lilbow vs GunGFuBanDa - the French player is only a slight favourite (56%); the German is 5-3 in PvP series against foreigners of late, while his opponent is 9-3 over the same period; I see no reason not to go with the odds here
Finals
GunGFuBanDa vs Neeb - the German is a heavy favourite (72%); no American has made it to the R16 this year (can't wait for the real region lock), and no North American since Kane in season one; I think Neeb isn't strong enough in PvP to see this one out so I'll stick with the odds; if this is Shana, see above

Aligulac, TL, and I have Lilbow and GunGFuBanDa returning to the R16.

Group F
Zanster vs Kane - not surprisingly the Swede is favoured (65%); looking shaky against HuK at HIAT doesn't seem relevant as his ZvZ is excellent; it's a surprise that the Canadian made it this far and while he has the talent to win here there's no reason to think he will (he hasn't played a ZvZ series since May, incidentally)
iAsonu vs ForGG - the Korean is a huge favourite (71%), and the Chinese player was unimpressive last season (0-4), so I see no reason to question the odds
Losers
Kane vs iAsonu - the Chinese player is favoured (55%); with the Canadian player semi-retired and not that great in ZvZ, I can hesitantly go with Aligulac (it's worth noting that when I've assumed Kane was going through the motions he's tended to win)
Winners
ForGG vs Zanster - the Korean is favoured (66%); the Swede struggles in ZvT and the Korean is a monster in the match-up, so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Zanster vs iAsonu - the Swede is favoured (61%), and I'll take his dominant record in Europe over the Chinese player's solid record in his scene; if this is Kane see above

Aligulac, TL, and I have ForGG and Zanster moving forward.

Group G
Snute vs Jim - the Norwegian is heavily favoured (71%), and the Chinese player's record against well-known players in PvZ is awful, so I'll stick with the odds
Hitman vs Elazer - the Polish player is a slight favourite (54%); the American is a bit like Has where if people aren't prepared for him he can do very well, but if they are his chance to win almost disappears; this wasn't the Zerg player's best match-up, although he's done well of late (8-3, despite losing to kAnji)--I want the upset here, but there's no reason to predict one
Losers
Jim vs Hitman - the Chinese player is favoured (57%), although PvP is truly the American's element (he's beaten Arthur, Patience, and Sage, for example); we haven't seen Jim in a PvP outside his region in a long time--I think he's the better player, so I'll go with the odds, but an upset is possible here
Winners
Snute vs Elazer - the Norwegian is favoured (69%), and he's a monster in ZvZ (11-2 of late), while the Polish player is very much a mixed bag (8-5); with Snute's 10-2 lifetime record against his opponent it's easy to stick with the odds
Finals
Jim vs Elazer - the Chinese player is a slight favourite (54%), but his PvZ numbers get a huge boost from crushing no-name players from his region--he hasn't done well against Europeans; the Polish player's ZvP is hardly perfect, but I think there's an "upset" to be had here

Aligulac has Snute and Jim going forward, whereas TL and I have the Norwegian and Elazer.

Group H
viOLet vs TLO - the Korean player is favoured (59%) despite failing out of the R32 the last two seasons and looking awful in doing so; he has almost no recent ZvZ history vs foreigners recently, but he has been getting his head kicked in by fellow Koreans; the German player's record is hard to judge--in WCS this season he's 7-1 (only losing to Hydra) in the match-up, while piling up a mediocre record outside of that--clearly he puts much more effort into WCS and I think TLO will continue the trail of tears for the Korean
XiGua vs MaNa - I'm surprised both players are here, but the Polish player is heavily favoured (79%), and it's easy to understand why--his PvZ is excellent (11-2 lately), while his opponent has floundered against known players, so I like the odds here
Losers
XiGua vs viOLet - once again the Korean is favoured (76%), and this time I'll take it as the Chinese player's ZvZ record is all over the place (3-3 since going 0-3 in season one)
Winners
TLO vs MaNa - the Polish player is favoured (68%), although the German has the historical edge on his opponent (24-16); TLO's track record in ZvP has not been good this year so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
viOLet vs TLO - the odds are above and typically re-matches go to the loser, but I like the German player here

Aligulac has the Korean and MaNa moving forward, whereas I have the latter and TLO, and TL has the German and XiGua.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)