WOL to HOTS: The Fortunes of Foreign Players

I've often wondered how well top foreign players transitioned from Wings of Liberty to Heart of the Swarm--many wondered at the time of the expansion arriving what would happen in a game absent so-called patch-Zergs riding on the backs of Brood Lord/Infestor; subsequently there have been the complaints in HOTS that Protoss are overpowered.

 

The most judicious way of looking at the available data was by examining the top players via winnings during the transition phase (the end of WOL in 2012 and then in HOTS).  Here are the top earners for 2012, with their performance in 2013 noted in brackets; players who are now retired or inactive are in italics; those in red declined on the chart in 2013, while those in blue moved up:

1.  Stephano 134k (#8 24k)

2. Nerchio 59k (#17 14k)

3. MaNa 53k (#26 9k)

4. ThorZain 44k (#21 10k)

5. VortiX 43k (#7 25k)

6. Scarlett 37k (#3 37k)

7. LucifroN 32k (#5 26k)

8. Snute 29k (#2 40k)

9. HasuObs 28k (#11 21k)

10. Sen 24k (#14 16k)

11. ViBE 24k (#49 5k)

12. SaSe 23k (#39 6k)

13. Killer 23k (#66 3k)

14. Socke 22k (#20 12k)

15. Kas 20k (#33 8k)

16. Bly 18k (#32 8k)

17. Grubby 17k (#9 23k)

18. NaNiwa 17k (#1 84k)

19. Ret 17k (#19 12k)

20. TitaN 17k (#42 6k)

21. monchi 17k (#83 2k)

22. DIMAGA 16k (#15 16k)

23. MacSed 16k (#12 17k)

24. TooDming 15k (#61 3k)

25. HuK 14k (#13 17k)

26. SortOf 14k (#37 7k)

27. mOOnGlade 13k (#40 6k)

28. Idra 12k (#116 1k)

29. Adelscott 12k (#232 less than 1k)

30. fraer 11k (#138 1k)

Here are the rest of the top-30 players from 2013 (with their 2012 numbers in brackets):

 

#4 Jim 36k (90th 2k)

#6 TLO 26k (71st 4k)

#10 Welmu 21k (74th 4k)

#16  Happy 14k (41st 9k)

#18 Bischu 12k (115th 1k)

#22 elfi 10k (52nd 7k)

#23  Xenocider 10k (no earnings)

#24 BabyKnight 9k (43rd 8k)

#25  Dayshi 9k (78th 3k)

#27 Goswser 9k (95th 2k)

#28  HeroMarine 8k (169th less than 1k)

#29 Minigun 8k (172nd less than 1k)

#30  MajOr 8k (33rd 10k)

 

The top-30 from 2012 earned a combined 835k, split between 14 Zergs, 12 Protoss, and 4 Terrans; the top-30 in 2013 earned 598k split between 13 Protoss, 10 Zergs, and 7 Terrans.  Only 8 of the 2012 top-30 actually moved up the money list (Ret anomalously kept his spot), with the other 21 declining (13 of whom fell out of the top group entirely).

 

Breaking down the improving vs declining change via race: 4 of 12 Protoss improved, 3 of 14 Zergs, and 1 of 4 Terrans; those joining the 2013 list were 6 Protoss, 5 Terrans, and 2 Zergs.  By region from 2012: 21 Europeans, 5 NA, and 4 SEA; 2013 it was 21 Europeans (again), 6 NA, and 3 from SEA.  The core of foreign power has and remains solidly European, although how much of that is due to limited Korean influence is worth considering.

So what about the patch-Zerg phenomena from WOL?  In many ways Zergs did decline after the Infestor was nerfed in HOTS--not so much in terms of the number of players in the top-30 (dropping from 14 to 10), but an overall gradual decline (as witnessed by the drop of top Zerg finishes in tournaments, as seen below).  What's more interesting than the decline are the exceptions--the creative Zerg players who thrived (like TLO); HOTS really only hurt mechanical, robotic players wholly dependent on Brood Lord/Infestor.  I thought those players would transition into Stephano's swarm host style, but the style did not get adopted early enough to save them.

 

How about the Power of Protoss?  Did all-ins (the complaint that has lasted longest) create a massive advantage?  The numbers don't back it up--there was the slightest of improvements for Protoss on the money list (from 12 to 13), as there was in players breaking into the top-30, but it's nowhere near the numbers Zergs enjoyed at the end of WOL.  Oddly, given fan rhetoric, the biggest beneficiaries of HOTS are actually Terran players (despite the fact that they remain embarrassingly unrepresented).  Looking at their representation with a broader scope, there were only seven Terrans in the top-50 in 2012, while there were twelve in 2013.

 

It's the very early days in 2014, but at the moment the top-30 money winners consist of 15 Protoss, 10 Zergs, and 5 Terrans (earning a combined 223k, so roughly on pace for 2013's total).  Despite the racial disparity, Zergs hold the top-3 money positions and 4 of the top-8.

 

As a general note, here's the premier tournaments played in 2012 and 2013 with the top foreigner noted (GSL and all-Korean events excluded); tournaments that did not run in 2013 are in italics:

 

2012 (Race of top player: Zerg 24, Protoss 11, Terran 2)

HomeStory Cup IV - Nerchio/DIMAGA (R8)

IEM IV Kiev - DIMAGA (2nd)

IEM IV Sao Paulo - Ret (3rd)

ASUS ROG Winter - Stephano (2nd)

MLG Winter - HuK (3rd)

Iron Squid Chapter I - (no one made it through the group stage)

IEM VI World Championship - Feast (3rd)

IGN Proleague Season 4 - Stephano (5th-6th)

MLG Winter Championship - HuK (4th)

NASL Season 3 - Stephano (1st)

DreamHack Stockholm - ThorZaIN (1st)

MLG Spring - Stephano (3rd)

Red Bull Battlegrounds - Stephano (3rd)

MLG Spring Championship - SaSe (4th)

DreamHack Summer - MaNa (1st)

HomeStory Cup V - Nerchio (1st)

MLG Summer - GoOdy (6th-7th)

TSL 4 - JonnyRecco (R8)

ASUS ROG Summer - MaNa/SortOf (R8)

IEM VII Cologne - Nerchio (2nd)

MLG Summer Championship - Stephano (11th-14th)

NASL Season 4 - SortOf (4th)

WCS Europe Finals - Stephano (1st)

DreamHack Valencia - TargA (4th)

DreamHack Bucharest - Nerchio (1st)

Electronic Sports World Cup - MaNa (1st)

MLG Fall Championships - NaNiwa (11th-14th)

Battlenet World Championships - Sen (4th)

IEM VII Singapore - Grubby (2nd)

DreamHack Winter - monchi/Nerchio (R4)

Iron Squid Chapter II - Scarlett/Goswser/Stephano (R8)

IGN Season 5 - (none made it to the top-12)

World Cyber Games - Adelscott (2nd)

HomeStory Cup IV - Snute (1st)

 

2013 (Race of top player: Protoss/Zerg 13, Terran 5)

IEM VII Katowice (WOL) - Socke (R4)

IEM VII World Championship - MaNa/Ret (R8)

MLG Winter Championship - Killer/Ret/Sen (R16)

WCS Europe Season 1 - Stephano (2nd)

DreamHack Stockholm - NaNiwa (2nd)

WCS America Season 1 - Snute (4th)

WCS Season 1 Final - (none made it out of group stage)

DreamHack Summer - SjoW (R4)

HomeStory Cup VII - Snute (2nd)

WCS Europe Season 2 - Grubby (R4)

MLG Spring Championship - NaNiwa (R4)

WCS America Season 2 - Scarlett (R4)

DreamHack Valencia - LucifroN (5th-6th)

IEM VIII Shanghai - (none made it out of group stage)

ASUS ROG Summer - Happy/Goswser (R8)

WCS Season 2 Finals - NaNiwa/Scarlett (R8)

WCS Europe Season 3 - VortiX (R4)

DreamHack Bucharest - elfi (6th)

WCS America Season 3 - MacSed (R8)

IEM VIII New York - NaNiwa (2nd)

WCS Season 3 Finals - (none made it out of group stage)

WCS Global Finals - NaNiwa (R16)

Red Bull Battleground - Scarlett (3rd)

HomeStory Cup VIII - Happy/BabyKnight (R8)

DreamHack Winter - NaNiwa (7th-8th)

IEM VIII Singapore - Scarlett (R8)

World Cyber Games - Jim (4th)

ASUS ROG Winter - Scarlett (2nd)

 

2014 (Race of top player: Zerg 4, Protoss 2, Terran 1)

WCS Europe Season 1 - VortiX/Snute/Welmu (R8)

WCS America Season 1 - (none made it out of group stage)

IEM VIII Sao Paulo - TLO (R4)

ASUS ROG Winter - (none made it out of group stage)

IEM VIII Cologne - (none made it out of group stage)

IEM World Championship - NaNiwa (R16)

DreamHack Bucharest - Snute/Bunny (R8)

 

With all the information above we can make a few conclusions: the dominance of Zerg at the end of WOL is very evident, while the relative balance between Zerg and Protoss since (with a slight increase in Terran) fits the money lists above.  Despite the increasing presence of Koreans in regional WCS leagues and other tournaments, earnings have remained steady for top foreigners in HOTS.  Retirements and periods of inactivity by top players has had no meaningful impact on foreign performance--which means the emergence of young talent is enough to replace what gets lost when older players move on or take a break.  Finally, despite various balance problems within HOTS, it's nowhere near as off-kilter as the end of WOL.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Europe Premier Round of 32 Predictions (Group F) and America (Group D)

As qxc let his Round of 16 hopes slip away yesterday (watch and facepalm with him), with Group C (America) following predictions.  Now it's time to move on and look at today's matches in both regions.

Europe

 MC
 TLO
 Golden
 Happy

Aligulac makes an interesting choice in having TLO push through along with MC (I see no reason to doubt that the Boss Toss will make it through); TLO has dominated Happy in HOTS, while Happy beat Golden in their only meeting (just last month); Golden hasn't played TLO in over a year and while his ZvZ against foreigners is good (10-1) he can be beaten--TLO is such an erratic player that he's hard to judge, but I'll bow to the odds and go with him here.

America

 Taeja
 Check
 Top
 Neeb

Aligulac safely goes with the two Koreans here; despite Taeja's wrist problems he should win the group without too much trouble (he's 8-2 against foreigners since the new year); Check is a beatable opponent, although Top has almost exclusively faced other Chinese players making his form difficult to judge; neeb hasn't been in tournament play in over a month and this lack of information leaves me with virtually nothing to go on save the odds--which I'll take.

So Aligulac and I both see MC, TLO, Taeja, and Check moving forward.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)