WCS America and Europe Challenger Predictions Day 2

It was an interesting first day of WCS Challenger as a number of players provided lacklustre performances--be it Genius who lost 0-3 to Krr and retired afterwards, as did TheStC after he lost 3-0 to Courage; elfi, who opened phoenix four games in a row and lost to Harstem 3-1, announced a break from SC2 immediately afterwards; then there was  JYP getting crushed 3-0 by Illusion.  None of the matches went a full five games, and in all three of five Koreans lost, helping to wreck predictions (Aligulac was 4-4 and I was 5-3).  Here's a look at today's matches:

 

 sLivko  Golden

 

Not surprisingly Aligulac gives the Korean an edge (62%) and given that sLivko has never beaten a Korean Zerg in multi-game matches in HOTS, there's not much cause to disagree (Golden is 8-2 vs foreigners in ZvZ of late).

 

 HasuObs  uThermal

 

Aligulac has HasuObs as the overwhelming favourite (76%); uThermal's TvP has been better of late in BO3's and better (10-2 vs non-Koreans), but those wins are not against players in the German's class; HasuObs PvT has been very good, but all his post-patch wins have been against his fellow countrymen--I'm still going with the odds here.

 

 FireCake  Verdi

 

Aligulac gives the Russian a big edge (75%) against the swarm host specialist, even though Verdi does not have the greatest track record in recent PvZ; FireCake's record is equally middling so for me this is either player's match to win and given the current map pool I'll go with the upset for the Frenchman.

 

 Bly  MaNa

 

Aligulac gives Bly a slight edge (56%); the Ukrainian played in today's GOTAC Cup, which seems mildly insane and I wonder what kind of shape he'll be in for the match; MaNa has had very mixed results in PvZ although he did beat Bly in their most recent match (February); Bly is on fire against foreign Protoss in BO3+ (10-1), although none of those players were at MaNa's level--regardless, I'm with the odds here.

 

 aLive vs  Suppy

 

The Korean is Aligulac's favourite (60%) and given that Suppy's ZvT has been pretty bad lately (he lost to Ruff!) I have to give this to aLive.

 Ian vs  Check

 

Ian is Aligulac's heavy underdog (25%); interestingly, Ian just beat Check a few weeks ago, granting that the Korean is 9-2 in BO3+ ZvZ; I'll stick with the odds here.

 MaSa vs  Slam

 

Aligulac has the Canadian Terran as the heavy favourite (71%); although the sample is very limited and dated, Slam has never beaten a non-Chinese Terran in a BO3+; MaSa's TvZ is a bit mixed (and he did lose to TooDming), but I'll stick with him here.

 MajOr vs  KingKong

 

Aligulac has KingKong as an overwhelming favourite (73%), but I think the Korean's numbers are highly inflated from beating on Aussie Terrans not named iaguz; MajOr is very strong in TvZ and I believe he'll take the series.

 

So Aligulac has Golden, HasuObs, Verdi, Bly, aLive, Check, MaSa, and KingKong moving forward and I largely agree, but have FireCake instead of Verdi and MajOr instead of KingKong.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)