Before delving into the R16 and how Bunny and GunGFuBanDa must be raging at their bad luck, it's time to look back and take stock of the R32 for season two--from MaSa channelling his inner NXZ to GunGFuBanDa gifting Jaedong first place in his group. Here's how the predictions turned out:
Aligulac 12-4 (9-7 last season, but very much in line with its season two Challenger predictions)
TL 11-5 (7-9 last season)
Me 9-7 (8-8 last season)
These are significantly better results from Aligulac and TL compared to season one.
Who were the biggest upsets and biggest surprises? To my mind there are only three of note (one in the former category, two in the latter). In Group C we had one of each, with Ret moving forward and viOLet becoming (again) the only Korean eliminated at this stage. In Group G iaguz advancing was a surprise, as the Gimli Terran has never advanced this far before in WCS (he gives SEA it's second straight season with a player in the R16, as PiG accomplished the feat in season one). Besides these three players, everyone in the R16 was selected by at least one of Aligulac or TL.
A few general notes: the stereotype about the weakness of NA and Latin America stood true this season (unlike last when Kane made it to the R8). The king of Copa America, MajOr, failed to win even a series (again! although Kelazhur at least beat Snute on his way out), nor did Kane or MaSa, while Xenocider (the only American participant) fell out with only an unremarkable win over NXZ (the only player with an 0-4 score). Just one player from China/Taiwan made it to the next stage (iAsonu), while the EU region stood strong again (9-4 overall).
As for the Koreans, they all lost multiple games; three besides viOLet actually lost a series (StarDust, Hydra, and Polt), with only ForGG and Jaedong making it through with two straight wins. All of them looked beatable in the R32, except perhaps ForGG. This isn't to say I expect a foreigner to win their own tournament, but rather we might see a Korean knocked out in the R16 unlike last season (Koreans didn't drop a map in the R16).
A quick look at balance (with 7 Zergs, 5 Terrans, and 4 Protoss moving forward, a change of one less Zerg, two more Terrans, and one less Protoss from season one):
ZvT 8-7
PvZ 6-5
TvP 4-1
The only note here is a slight edge for Terrans against Protoss (something barely perceptible in Challenger); the only Protoss player to beat a Terran was Lilbow over Kelazhur.
Map scores (38 ZvT's, 24 PvZ's, 12 TvP's):
Coda (23) ZvT 5-7 PvZ 3-5 TvP 2-1
Vaani (16) ZvT 6-1 PvZ 3-2 TvP 3-1
Echo (13) ZvT 3-7 PvZ 1-1 TvP 1-0
Expedition Lost (9) PvZ 4-1 ZvT 3-1
Iron Fortress (8) PvZ 2-2 ZvT 3-0 TvP 1-1
Cactus Valley (4) TvP 1-1 PvZ 1-0 ZvT 0-1
Inferno Pools (1) ZvT 0-1
Most common ZvT maps: Coda, Echo, Vaani
Most common PvZ maps: Coda, Vaani/Expedition Lost
Most common TvP maps: Vaani, Coda, Iron Fortress
Coda is now the most popular map, beating out Vaani (which was slightly ahead of it in Challenger). Expedition Lost was more common, although zero TvP's were played on it (there were only PvZ's in Challenger). Inferno Pools remains deadweight (even more so than Alterzim from past seasons), with Cactus Valley nearly there itself. The most stark advantages above are for Zergs in ZvT on Vaani, Terrans in the same matchup on Echo, Protoss' against Zerg on Expedition Lost, and possibly Zerg against Terran on Iron Fortress. Here's a look at the map scores including Challenger (minus Hydra's stomp of Zeal):
Coda (35) ZvT 6-9 PvZ 6-6 TvP 6-2
Vaani (29) PvZ 4-8 ZvT 8-3 TvP 7-2
Echo (24) ZvT 5-8 PvZ 5-1 TvP 3-2
Iron Fortress (15) PvZ 3-5 ZvT 3-1 TvP 1-3
Expedition Lost (12) PvZ 4-4 ZvT 3-1
Cactus Valley (9) TvP 3-2 PvZ 1-1 ZvT 1-1
Inferno Pools (3) ZvT 0-1 PvZ 0-1 TvP 1-0
It will be interesting to see how these trends fair going forward.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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