Work and other commitments interfered with me posting predictions for the last two days of Challenger, but I've seen all the games and I have some thoughts. For those of you looking for the VODs, I haven't seen them on Youtube yet (via official channels), but you can see the games on the WCS twitch channels.
NA Challenger
Lacked drama as there were no major upsets (Scarlett's loss would have been were it not for her injuries and lack of practise), with a few lopsided matches; Nathanias' casting was good as usual, although his co-pilot Gretorp seemed unaware of the current meta and sounded like he hadn't watched competitive SC2 since NASL's collapse.
Day One
Kane 3 qxc 0 - the retiring Terran's macro was fine, but his decision making was poor throughout and Kane took full advantage; a sour note for qxc to go out on
puCK 3 Guitarcheese 1 - apparently no matter what a Zerg does against puCK his answer is more blink stalkers, which worked here
Polt 3 Semper 0 - the Canadian Terran looked nervous and was completely dismantled by his opponent; it wasn't entertaining to watch
Astrea 3 Scarlett 2 - the woman who was, for a time, considered one of the best foreigners in the game looked out of practise and suffered for it; despite that, this was the most entertaining series to watch of the day
Day Two
HuK 3 State 2 - the best series of the day; while both players made mistakes there was a lot of fantastic play as well; sad to see State not move on as well
Hydra 3 MaSa 1 - poor MaSa; he could have won the first three games (as he suggests himself), as Hydra fell behind badly in each, but the Korean simply macro'd his way out of problems
viOLet 3 Xenocider 1 - went as expected (despite Xeno's bravado beforehand), although of the three Koreans currently in NA, viOLet is the least impressive
Suppy 3 Bails 0 - I'm not sure what happened to Bails, but Suppy could not have asked for an easier opponent--the loses were as lopsided as Semper's to Polt
The results give us 4 Zergs, 3 Protoss, and 1 Terran into Premier from the region. With Jaedong, StarDust, and other Koreans coming to NA next season, the scene seems destined to return to the disaster it was last year--local players stifled out of Premier by the influx. I love watching top Koreans play, but I want it at the GSL level. I have no issue with ForGG (who has lived in Germany for years) or KingKong (living in Australia for years) participating in their respective regions, but the parachuting of players who can't crack Code S bothers me. Regardless, this means this season is the best chance for local players to get near the finals. Given those who have made it to Premier, only puCK and possibly Kane look anywhere near the form required to do so. As for the player who lost that I thought was most deserving, it's MaSa.
EU Challenger
Despite featuring the least exciting English casting duo imaginable (god love Madals for trying, but Pengwin...oh Pengwin), EU featured the best matches in Challenger.
Day One
Welmu 3 Beastyqt 2 - this series was a lot of fun to watch and I'm a little disappointed in the result, as Welmu isn't at his best and Beasty's approach was entertaining
Happy 3 Majestic 2 - the Spanish Protoss provided some unique strategies and gave Happy enough trouble to take him to five games
MaNa 3 HeRoMaRinE 2 - sad to see the German Terran knocked out, but MaNa is more capable of a deep run in Premier
Serral 3 Harstem 0 - the popular Dutch Protoss' play was awful in the series (as he said himself), so much so it's hard to judge just how good Serral is
Day Two
uThermal 3 Bly 1 - for the most part Bly had no answer to uThermal's constant pressure; I'm a fan of the Dutch player and hope he does well in Premier
ShoWTimE 3 Lilbow 1 - the result surprised me, if not the odds, as the German player manhandled Lilbow
MorroW 3 BlinG 2 - a fun series to watch, as both players made mistakes while trading punches
TLO 3 Ret 1 - as much as TLO struggled in the qualifiers, he looked like he was back in shape dismantling his teammate
Day Three
TargA 3 Kas 1 - the Norwegian Zerg only lost the game he cheesed in, otherwise standard play (muta/ling) killed Kas every time
Snute 3 PsiOniC 0 - this was the most one-sided series in EU, as Snute killed him with basic pressure every game
FireCake 3 Starbuck 1 - I was disappointed that Starbuck didn't break out his wild builds, as FireCake simply macro'd ahead of him every game
ForGG 3 MarineLorD 2 - after seeing the series I wish MarineLorD had played someone else; I was expecting a one-sided affair and instead the series could have gone either way--an encouraging sign for the French Terran
NaNiwa 3 Nerchio 1 - other than a misstep in game one this series was very one-sided for NaNiwa
Bunny 3 PtitDrogo 0 - almost as one-sided as Snute's above, as the French Protoss had no answer for Bunny (as he said himself)
The results put 5 Terrans, 5 Zergs, and 4 Protoss into Premier. In terms of the results of the non-mirrored match-ups: PvZ 1-2 TvP 3-2 ZvT 1-1.
I've referenced the results in other regions before, but here's who made it in, followed by a look at overall results:
Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau - Sen and Has
Latin America - MajOr and Kelazhur
SEA - PiG and iaguz
China - iAsonu, Jim, XiGua, and MacSed
Here's the balance in Challenger: PvZ 5-4, ZvT 5-4, and TvP 3-2. Overall 13 Zergs, 10 Protoss, and 9 Terrans have made it to Premier (you can see the list here along with the groups).
I'll delve into predictions when we get closer to the dates games are going to be played, but I have a few initial thoughts. If I'm Snute (Group H) I'm not a happy camper facing all Zerg opponents. Serral (Group B) only has one race to prepare for as well, but I don't think that's going to help him. I do think facing one race will aid FireCake (Group D). Group A is the most competitive group (MajOr, TargA, MaNa, and puCK), as there's no obviously weaker player.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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