The EU Challenger matches begin today and I thought I'd look into the Aligulac crystal ball for some predictions (the matches are best-of-fives, btb). Team Liquid has its own preview and I'll include their thoughts as well. If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.
Happy vs Majestic - the Russian Terran is given an 87% chance to beat the surprise Spanish qualifier; the only notable win over a Terran for Majestic is beating Dayshi, but that was the lacklustre Dayshi of the qualifier. Happy's recent results have been good, including 4th in the Fragbite Masters (where he lost to Bunny) and winning the November ZOTAC Cup. Majestic's last result of note was winning a go4sc2 cup qualifier back in August. Happy has participated in Premier every single season, while this is Majestic's first trip to Challenger. TL has little to say about the Spanish player and like Aligulac gives the BO5 to Happy; I see no reason to argue.
Welmu vs Beastyqt - the Finn is given a 56% chance to win; Beastyqt has the historical score against Welmu, but all of those matches are from WOL and neither player has much recent history against top opponents of the other race. Welmu has not played much over the past few months and his results have not been impressive. Beastyqt also hasn't played much of late and his run in the qualifier includes his best results. Welmu has been in the past five seasons of Premier; Beastqt was in Premier once (season two in 2013). TL is very enthused about Welmu and it's clear that its his form from months ago that's strongly in their minds, but it's worth remembering just how hard it was for the Finnish player to qualify (not until the fourth day, having lost to Snitchables, Starbuck, and Zeth). I still give the nod to Welmu, but it's not going to be easy.
Harstem vs Serral - the Dutch player gets 60% odds, although Serral did beat him in the qualifiers. Harstem's PvZ has been very good, despite the loss. As for the Finnish player, his ZvP is all over the place, with the aforementioned win over his opponent the one that stands out the most. Harstem has been in Premier the last two seasons; Serral was in Premier last season. TL puts a lot of emphasis on the Finnish player's inexperience and trouble with the matchup, favouring Harstem--I have to agree with them.
MaNa vs HeRoMaRinE - MaNa has 55% odds, which I think is pretty conservative. MaNa didn't lose to a Terran in the qualifier and overall his PvT has been very strong (including beating his opponent in a BO5 back in November). HeRoMaRinE's record against better Protoss is not impressive (losses to ShoWTimE, HasuObs, MaNa, etc). MaNa has been in Premier four of six seasons, while HeRoMaRinE's high water mark is two trips to Challenger. TL looks for the upset, largely based (it seems) on his qualifier run, although TLO and FireCake aren't in good form and neither Zanster nor Petraeus made it to Challenger...and all four of the players are Zerg, not Protoss. I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel for the German player and agree with the odds that MaNa will make it through.
Tomorrow there will be another four matches for EU, with the final six played on Saturday. The NA schedule plays out Saturday-Sunday. The only other Challenger matches that have not already been played are from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau; they are scheduled for tomorrow (with Sen getting the odds over Ian and Has the edge over Rex).
The biggest surprise misses from Challenger for me have to be Dayshi (EU), DeMuslim (EU), Petraeus (EU), miniraser (EU), hendralisk (NA), and Minigun (NA).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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