Friday 2 May 2014

WCS Europe Challenger Predictions Day 4

In my deluded state yesterday I posted up WCS America predictions when the next two days of games are next week--oops!  Regardless, European predictions took a beating as old school players Stephano and DeMuslim both won against the odds to move on to Premier.  Both Koreans (Patience and YoDa) took care of business as expected, leaving Aligulac and I at 2-2 on the day.  I was really disappointed in the Stephano series, as Starbuck kept trying risky early aggression that cost him two games (and why he insisted on going ultralisk vs swarm hosts and making mutas at all remains a mystery).  I did like that Stephano demonstrated how broken swarm hosts are in ZvZ (as much as they are in the other matches), not that I expect the unit to be fixed any time soon.
 
Zerg TargA vs Protoss ToD
 
Aligulac has ToD as the solid favourite (60%) and I see nothing in TargA's recent ZvP to suggest an upset (although ToD has been known to go full-ToD from time to time).
 
Protoss ShoWTimE vs Protoss First
 
Not surprisingly, Aligulac has the Korean as the heavy favourite (67%), and while First struggled against foreigners at DreamHack his problems were not against Protoss, so I'm comfortable sticking with him.
 
Zerg LiveZerg vs Terran MorroW
 
Aligulac gives LiveZerg a slight edge (52%), but as the Russian has barely played the last few months (and hasn't faced a Terran since January) it's hard to be trust in his numbers; MorroW has been very good in BO3+ TvZ in 2014 (17-2), so I'll side with the Swede here.
 
Protoss NightEnD vs Zerg Tefel
 
I was shocked NightEnD made it into Premier last season and neither I nor Aligulac (20%) give him
much of a chance here; Tefel will take the series.
 
Aligulac predicts ToD, First, LiveZerg, and Tefel will move forward, and I agree with all except
LiveZerg.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

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