Group B is in the books with Aligulac again 2-0 (TL and I were 1-1 again). It was hard watching Kelazhur's devastation when he lost to elfi, although it was fun seeing the normally cheesy Finn playing macro games against him. Onto the odds and predictions for the weekend:
Group C
ShoWTimE vs Sen - the German is favoured (69%), and given how awful the Taiwanese player has been in WCS this year it's no surprise (0-4 in series, 1-8 in maps, although three of those losses were to Koreans); Sen has only played one ZvP since April making his current form difficult to discern; the German has struggled a bit lately in PvZ (losing to Elazer, Guru, and FireCake), but in general is very good in the matchup so I'll take the odds
Jaedong vs HeRoMaRinE - the Tyrant is only a slight favourite (55%), but it's difficult to see why that is given the German's middling TvZ record (5-5 of late); while Jaedong is susceptible to top foreign Terrans, I don't think that's what he's facing here (at least not yet), so I'll stick with the odds
Losers
Sen vs HeRoMaRinE - the German is favoured (56%), even though (as mentioned above) this is not his best matchup; once again there's virtually no good data on the Taiwanese player in the matchup (although historically in his local scene he's excellent), so I'll stick with the odds
Winners
Jaedong vs ShoWTimE - once again the Korean is only slightly favoured (55%), but the German has a terrible PvZ record against Koreans (1-10) and the Tyrant hasn't lost a meaningful ZvP against a foreigner since losing to HuK last August--so I'll take the odds
Finals
ShoWTimE vs HeRoMaRinE - truly an EPS final, the Terran is just slightly favoured (53%); he's won 3 of their last 4 meetings, including a BO5 just a month ago; I think the Protoss might be the better overall player, but the Terran is going to be in his comfort zone (the German scene is mostly TvP for him) and is clearly confident against his opponent, so I'll stick with the odds
Both Aligulac and I have Jaedong and HeRoMaRinE moving forward; TL likes the Tyrant and Sen.
Group D
MarineLorD vs MaSa - the Canadian, just like Kelazhur above, has been spending his time at the ROOT house and this is his last chance to make an impact in WCS with that as a springboard; Aligulac gives him the smallest of edges (51%), but that's based on him wrecking fellow NA players; while the French Terran does sometimes lose to the best Europeans, there's nothing in the Canadian's track record to suggest he'll win here
Has vs iaguz - players who created opposite impressions last season (the Aussie ascending and the Taiwanese player descending); the Gimli Terran knows it will be an all-in every game so he simply has to defend; the odds favour him (51%) ever so slightly; the Protoss player has only played one series against a Terran who wasn't Chinese or Taiwanese (losing to Bunny), but I think the Aussie has the chops to stop him as well so I'll stick with the odds
Losers
MaSa vs Has - the odds are with the Canadian again (60%), although much of that is built off crushing the NA scene (which is really no different than the Taiwanese player dominating his local scene); I don't have a strong opinion here so I'll rely on Aligulac; if this is MarineLorD instead he's heavily favoured (69%)
Winners
iaguz vs MarineLorD - the Aussie doesn't get to play TvT that often and I like the odds (65%) that the French Terran will move forward; if this is MaSa see below
Finals
iaguz vs MaSa - once again the Canadian is favoured (66%), despite having lost 3 of the 4 series the two have played; I think MaSa has the talent to win here, but I like the Gimli Terran's experience and I think he'll win out; if this is MarineLorD the French player is favoured (65%) again
Myself and TL have MarineLorD and iaguz moving forward, Aligulac likes MaSa and the French player.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
No comments:
Post a Comment