WCS Predictions: R32 Group A

It's time for yet another round of WCS predictions begins--once again I'll go through Aligulac's numbers and see what the odds say about who moves on to the R16.  Just some general news beforehand: uThermal has had to withdraw from WCS due to poor health, with Elfi replacing him.  On to Group A [the TL preview arrived after I posted, so I've included their predictions in square brackets]:

Harstem vs MajOr - Aligulac generally favours the Mexican Terran (his rating buoyed by crushing players in Copa America regularly) and that remains the case here (64%); he does have a 6-1 record against the Dutch player (granted they last played in 2014); throughout this year I've put my faith in MajOr and he's utterly failed, so I've learned my lesson and I'm going with the upset [TL sticks with Aligulac]

Polt vs Petraeus - surprisingly the Korean gets only a slight edge (50%), but the Kiwi has never beaten a Terran of his caliber so I'll take the odds here [TL has the favourite]

Losers
Petraeus vs MajOr - the Zerg is favoured (56%); the players have split the games they've played (10-10), but the Kiwi has won their last two meetings; I like the odds here; if this is Harstem once again the Zerg is favoured (61%); the Dutch player has a slight edge in their matches against one another (7-5), but they haven't played since the swarmhost nerf [TL likes the Protoss over the Zerg]

Winners
Polt vs Harstem - as expected the Korean is a huge favourite (85%) and despite the Dutch player's win over GuMiho I see no hope for him here; if this is MajOr the odds are closer (66%) and the Mexican has a decent score against Polt (11-14), but lost the last two series against him [TL likes the Korean]

Finals
Harstem vs Petraeus - the odds are above (61% for the Zerg), but the Kiwi hasn't been as impressive in ZvP since the swarmhost patch (losing to players like HuK, Strange, and Verdi recently), so I like the upset here; if this is MajOr instead of the Dutch player, see above [TL has the Protoss beating MajOr]

Aligulac has Polt and Petraeus moving forward, whereas I have the Korean and Harstem [TL agrees].

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)