The second half of the R32 of WCS starts today so it's back to predictions for me. At the moment Aligulac is 7-1, while TL and I are 5-3. There have been no major upsets or surprises, with elfi the only player to make it to the R16 who hasn't been there before this year (TL predictions):
Group E
Lilbow vs Neeb - the French player is an overwhelming favourite (77%); the American's limited history as a Protoss isn't that helpful, nor is his (relative) dominance in PvP in the NA scene; I see no reason to question the odds
Shana vs GunGFuBanDa - the German is also a heavy favourite (72%); the Chinese Terran's record is almost inscrutable--he's been good lately in his local scene, but as most of his opponents are players we never see it's hard to know what to think about it; the German's PvT is more explicably, but outside Germany it's more spotty; in the absence of information I'll stick with Aligulac
Losers
Neeb vs Shana - the American is slightly favoured (56%), but despite having been a Terran he's struggled in PvT (3-5 in series since the switch); the Chinese player has a much better record of late (11-1), but it's so hard to gauge his level without knowing the players he's beating (think about how the similarly obscure Mystery got crushed in season two), so I'll stick with the known quantity and go with the American
Winners
Lilbow vs GunGFuBanDa - the French player is only a slight favourite (56%); the German is 5-3 in PvP series against foreigners of late, while his opponent is 9-3 over the same period; I see no reason not to go with the odds here
Finals
GunGFuBanDa vs Neeb - the German is a heavy favourite (72%); no American has made it to the R16 this year (can't wait for the real region lock), and no North American since Kane in season one; I think Neeb isn't strong enough in PvP to see this one out so I'll stick with the odds; if this is Shana, see above
Aligulac, TL, and I have Lilbow and GunGFuBanDa returning to the R16.
Group F
Zanster vs Kane - not surprisingly the Swede is favoured (65%); looking shaky against HuK at HIAT doesn't seem relevant as his ZvZ is excellent; it's a surprise that the Canadian made it this far and while he has the talent to win here there's no reason to think he will (he hasn't played a ZvZ series since May, incidentally)
iAsonu vs ForGG - the Korean is a huge favourite (71%), and the Chinese player was unimpressive last season (0-4), so I see no reason to question the odds
Losers
Kane vs iAsonu - the Chinese player is favoured (55%); with the Canadian player semi-retired and not that great in ZvZ, I can hesitantly go with Aligulac (it's worth noting that when I've assumed Kane was going through the motions he's tended to win)
Winners
ForGG vs Zanster - the Korean is favoured (66%); the Swede struggles in ZvT and the Korean is a monster in the match-up, so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Zanster vs iAsonu - the Swede is favoured (61%), and I'll take his dominant record in Europe over the Chinese player's solid record in his scene; if this is Kane see above
Aligulac, TL, and I have ForGG and Zanster moving forward.
Group G
Snute vs Jim - the Norwegian is heavily favoured (71%), and the Chinese player's record against well-known players in PvZ is awful, so I'll stick with the odds
Hitman vs Elazer - the Polish player is a slight favourite (54%); the American is a bit like Has where if people aren't prepared for him he can do very well, but if they are his chance to win almost disappears; this wasn't the Zerg player's best match-up, although he's done well of late (8-3, despite losing to kAnji)--I want the upset here, but there's no reason to predict one
Losers
Jim vs Hitman - the Chinese player is favoured (57%), although PvP is truly the American's element (he's beaten Arthur, Patience, and Sage, for example); we haven't seen Jim in a PvP outside his region in a long time--I think he's the better player, so I'll go with the odds, but an upset is possible here
Winners
Snute vs Elazer - the Norwegian is favoured (69%), and he's a monster in ZvZ (11-2 of late), while the Polish player is very much a mixed bag (8-5); with Snute's 10-2 lifetime record against his opponent it's easy to stick with the odds
Finals
Jim vs Elazer - the Chinese player is a slight favourite (54%), but his PvZ numbers get a huge boost from crushing no-name players from his region--he hasn't done well against Europeans; the Polish player's ZvP is hardly perfect, but I think there's an "upset" to be had here
Aligulac has Snute and Jim going forward, whereas TL and I have the Norwegian and Elazer.
Group H
viOLet vs TLO - the Korean player is favoured (59%) despite failing out of the R32 the last two seasons and looking awful in doing so; he has almost no recent ZvZ history vs foreigners recently, but he has been getting his head kicked in by fellow Koreans; the German player's record is hard to judge--in WCS this season he's 7-1 (only losing to Hydra) in the match-up, while piling up a mediocre record outside of that--clearly he puts much more effort into WCS and I think TLO will continue the trail of tears for the Korean
XiGua vs MaNa - I'm surprised both players are here, but the Polish player is heavily favoured (79%), and it's easy to understand why--his PvZ is excellent (11-2 lately), while his opponent has floundered against known players, so I like the odds here
Losers
XiGua vs viOLet - once again the Korean is favoured (76%), and this time I'll take it as the Chinese player's ZvZ record is all over the place (3-3 since going 0-3 in season one)
Winners
TLO vs MaNa - the Polish player is favoured (68%), although the German has the historical edge on his opponent (24-16); TLO's track record in ZvP has not been good this year so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
viOLet vs TLO - the odds are above and typically re-matches go to the loser, but I like the German player here
Aligulac has the Korean and MaNa moving forward, whereas I have the latter and TLO, and TL has the German and XiGua.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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