Reviewing WCS Challenger Results

Work and other commitments interfered with me posting predictions for the last two days of Challenger, but I've seen all the games and I have some thoughts.  For those of you looking for the VODs, I haven't seen them on Youtube yet (via official channels), but you can see the games on the WCS twitch channels.

NA Challenger

Lacked drama as there were no major upsets (Scarlett's loss would have been were it not for her injuries and lack of practise), with a few lopsided matches; Nathanias' casting was good as usual, although his co-pilot Gretorp seemed unaware of the current meta and sounded like he hadn't watched competitive SC2 since NASL's collapse.

Day One

Kane 3 qxc 0 - the retiring Terran's macro was fine, but his decision making was poor throughout and Kane took full advantage; a sour note for qxc to go out on

puCK 3 Guitarcheese 1 - apparently no matter what a Zerg does against puCK his answer is more blink stalkers, which worked here

Polt 3 Semper 0 - the Canadian Terran looked nervous and was completely dismantled by his opponent; it wasn't entertaining to watch

Astrea 3 Scarlett 2 - the woman who was, for a time, considered one of the best foreigners in the game looked out of practise and suffered for it; despite that, this was the most entertaining series to watch of the day

Day Two

HuK 3 State 2 - the best series of the day; while both players made mistakes there was a lot of fantastic play as well; sad to see State not move on as well

Hydra 3 MaSa 1 - poor MaSa; he could have won the first three games (as he suggests himself), as Hydra fell behind badly in each, but the Korean simply macro'd his way out of problems

viOLet 3 Xenocider 1 - went as expected (despite Xeno's bravado beforehand), although of the three Koreans currently in NA, viOLet is the least impressive

Suppy 3 Bails 0 - I'm not sure what happened to Bails, but Suppy could not have asked for an easier opponent--the loses were as lopsided as Semper's to Polt

The results give us 4 Zergs, 3 Protoss, and 1 Terran into Premier from the region.  With Jaedong, StarDust, and other Koreans coming to NA next season, the scene seems destined to return to the disaster it was last year--local players stifled out of Premier by the influx.  I love watching top Koreans play, but I want it at the GSL level.  I have no issue with ForGG (who has lived in Germany for years) or KingKong (living in Australia for years) participating in their respective regions, but the parachuting of players who can't crack Code S bothers me.  Regardless, this means this season is the best chance for local players to get near the finals.  Given those who have made it to Premier, only puCK and possibly Kane look anywhere near the form required to do so.  As for the player who lost that I thought was most deserving, it's MaSa.

EU Challenger

Despite featuring the least exciting English casting duo imaginable (god love Madals for trying, but Pengwin...oh Pengwin), EU featured the best matches in Challenger.

Day One

Welmu 3 Beastyqt 2 - this series was a lot of fun to watch and I'm a little disappointed in the result, as Welmu isn't at his best and Beasty's approach was entertaining

Happy 3 Majestic 2 - the Spanish Protoss provided some unique strategies and gave Happy enough trouble to take him to five games

MaNa 3 HeRoMaRinE 2 - sad to see the German Terran knocked out, but MaNa is more capable of a deep run in Premier

Serral 3 Harstem 0 - the popular Dutch Protoss' play was awful in the series (as he said himself), so much so it's hard to judge just how good Serral is

Day Two

uThermal 3 Bly 1 - for the most part Bly had no answer to uThermal's constant pressure; I'm a fan of the Dutch player and hope he does well in Premier

ShoWTimE 3 Lilbow 1 - the result surprised me, if not the odds, as the German player manhandled Lilbow

MorroW 3 BlinG 2 - a fun series to watch, as both players made mistakes while trading punches

TLO 3 Ret 1 - as much as TLO struggled in the qualifiers, he looked like he was back in shape dismantling his teammate

Day Three

TargA 3 Kas 1 - the Norwegian Zerg only lost the game he cheesed in, otherwise standard play (muta/ling) killed Kas every time

Snute 3 PsiOniC 0 - this was the most one-sided series in EU, as Snute killed him with basic pressure every game

FireCake 3 Starbuck 1 - I was disappointed that Starbuck didn't break out his wild builds, as FireCake simply macro'd ahead of him every game

ForGG 3 MarineLorD 2 - after seeing the series I wish MarineLorD had played someone else; I was expecting a one-sided affair and instead the series could have gone either way--an encouraging sign for the French Terran

NaNiwa 3 Nerchio 1 - other than a misstep in game one this series was very one-sided for NaNiwa

Bunny 3 PtitDrogo 0 - almost as one-sided as Snute's above, as the French Protoss had no answer for Bunny (as he said himself)

The results put 5 Terrans, 5 Zergs, and 4 Protoss into Premier.  In terms of the results of the non-mirrored match-ups: PvZ 1-2 TvP 3-2 ZvT 1-1.

I've referenced the results in other regions before, but here's who made it in, followed by a look at overall results:

Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau - Sen and Has

Latin America - MajOr and Kelazhur

SEA - PiG and iaguz

China - iAsonu, Jim, XiGua, and MacSed

Here's the balance in Challenger: PvZ 5-4, ZvT 5-4, and TvP 3-2.  Overall 13 Zergs, 10 Protoss, and 9 Terrans have made it to Premier (you can see the list here along with the groups).

I'll delve into predictions when we get closer to the dates games are going to be played, but I have a few initial thoughts.  If I'm Snute (Group H) I'm not a happy camper facing all Zerg opponents.  Serral (Group B) only has one race to prepare for as well, but I don't think that's going to help him.  I do think facing one race will aid FireCake (Group D).  Group A is the most competitive group (MajOr, TargA, MaNa, and puCK), as there's no obviously weaker player.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger Predictions (EU Day Two)

It's almost match time so this will have to be brief and to the point!  All odds derived from Aligulac.  If there are any errors or omissions please let me know.  Here's the Team Liquid preview.

uThermal vs Bly - the Dutch Terran is a 69% favourite, but a lot of his wins over Zergs are players below Bly's tier, but the exact same can be said of the Ukrainian; I'd like uThermal to move on (TL agrees)

ShoWTimE vs Lilbow - the Frenchman is a slight 52% favourite, which I think belies far better results and despite the luck factor in PvP I believe Lilbow takes this handily (TL gives it to him as well in a close series)

BlinG vs MorroW - the Swedish Terran gets a 51% edge; this match is a coin flip for me as neither player has impressive results in the match-up of late, but I'll stick with the odds (TL sees BlinG taking it)

TLO vs Ret - surprisingly Ret gets the 51% edge and he did beat TLO in the qualifier, but the German player's recent ZvZ results are better overall so I'll stick with him (TL also gives it to him)

Thoughts on yesterday will have to wait.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger Predictions (EU Day One)

 

The EU Challenger matches begin today and I thought I'd look into the Aligulac crystal ball for some predictions (the matches are best-of-fives, btb).  Team Liquid has its own preview and I'll include their thoughts as well.  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.

 

Happy vs Majestic - the Russian Terran is given an 87% chance to beat the surprise Spanish qualifier; the only notable win over a Terran for Majestic is beating Dayshi, but that was the lacklustre Dayshi of the qualifier.  Happy's recent results have been good, including 4th in the Fragbite Masters (where he lost to Bunny) and winning the November ZOTAC Cup.  Majestic's last result of note was winning a go4sc2 cup qualifier back in August.  Happy has participated in Premier every single season, while this is Majestic's first trip to Challenger.  TL has little to say about the Spanish player and like Aligulac gives the BO5 to Happy; I see no reason to argue.

 

Welmu vs Beastyqt - the Finn is given a 56% chance to win; Beastyqt has the historical score against Welmu, but all of those matches are from WOL and neither player has much recent history against top opponents of the other race.  Welmu has not played much over the past few months and his results have not been impressive.  Beastyqt also hasn't played much of late and his run in the qualifier includes his best results.  Welmu has been in the past five seasons of Premier; Beastqt was in Premier once (season two in 2013).  TL is very enthused about Welmu and it's clear that its his form from months ago that's strongly in their minds, but it's worth remembering just how hard it was for the Finnish player to qualify (not until the fourth day, having lost to Snitchables, Starbuck, and Zeth).  I still give the nod to Welmu, but it's not going to be easy.

 

Harstem vs Serral - the Dutch player gets 60% odds, although Serral did beat him in the qualifiers.  Harstem's PvZ has been very good, despite the loss.  As for the Finnish player, his ZvP is all over the place, with the aforementioned win over his opponent the one that stands out the most.  Harstem has been in Premier the last two seasons; Serral was in Premier last season.  TL puts a lot of emphasis on the Finnish player's inexperience and trouble with the matchup, favouring Harstem--I have to agree with them.

 

MaNa vs HeRoMaRinE - MaNa has 55% odds, which I think is pretty conservative.  MaNa didn't lose to a Terran in the qualifier and overall his PvT has been very strong (including beating his opponent in a BO5 back in November).  HeRoMaRinE's record against better Protoss is not impressive (losses to ShoWTimE, HasuObs, MaNa, etc).  MaNa has been in Premier four of six seasons, while HeRoMaRinE's high water mark is two trips to Challenger.  TL looks for the upset, largely based (it seems) on his qualifier run, although TLO and FireCake aren't in good form and neither Zanster nor Petraeus made it to Challenger...and all four of the players are Zerg, not Protoss.  I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel for the German player and agree with the odds that MaNa will make it through.

 

Tomorrow there will be another four matches for EU, with the final six played on Saturday.  The NA schedule plays out Saturday-Sunday.  The only other Challenger matches that have not already been played are from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau; they are scheduled for tomorrow (with Sen getting the odds over Ian and Has the edge over Rex).

 

The biggest surprise misses from Challenger for me have to be Dayshi (EU), DeMuslim (EU), Petraeus (EU), miniraser (EU), hendralisk (NA), and Minigun (NA).

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Thoughts on the WCS Qualifiers (Week Two)

With one exception (see below) all the Challenger qualifiers are now complete (you can see some of the VODs of EU/NA via Basetradetv and gXxshocks, along with some from SEA via Anthony Carapetis).  Sixty of sixty-four players are decided; two regions having played their Challenger matches already (SEA and China, which gives us 6 out of 32 Premier players).  The racial split among the 60 qualifiers is 23 Zergs, 19 Protoss, and 18 Terrans (so a much healthier Zerg scene than the current GSL, for whatever that's worth).  As always, if you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know!

 

EU Qualifiers

Day 4 (187 players)

Snute (Z) - beat fellow Zergs Tefel and Petraeus to qualify

MaNa (P) - knocked off Terrans DeMuslim and Happy to qualify

Majestic (P) - beat Dayshi, sLivko, and TLO to qualify

Welmu (P) - struggled through Bly's awful Internet and Fraer's cheese to qualify

Majestic is a real surprise, as the Spanish player makes it to Challenger for the first time.  On the fail side, Harstem lost to GunGFuBanDa and Nerchio lost to Fraer.

Day 5 (177 players)

Happy (T) - beat Adonminus in an otherwise easy path to qualify

MorroW (T) - knocked out Tefel on his way to qualifying

FireCake (Z) - beat SortOf, ret, and DeMuslim to qualify

Nerchio (Z) - played through an easy bracket to qualify

Lillekanin and ZhuGeLiang played the longest and most boring game of SC2 I've ever seen, after which the Danish player was disqualified for violating rules during it.  This was the same day that GungFuBanDa tried to bribe his opponent (jeysen), both of whom were suspended for the season.

Day 6 (182 players)

PsiOniC (P) - beat Krr, ShoWTimE, and Strelok

Harstem (P) - qualified at last, beating StarNaN on the way through

BlinG (P) - beat TLO, DeMuslim, and Lamboking to qualify

Ret (Z) - knocked out hOpe, elfi, and miniraser to qualify

 

Both TLO and DeMuslim continued to struggle; PsiOniC is the surprise here.

Day 7 (16 players selected by their performance through the previous qualifiers)

ShoWTimE (P) - lost no games beating Complain, TLO, and Serral

Bly (Z) - went through Fraer, Petraeus, and Miniraser

Serral (Z) - despite losing to ShoWTimE, he was able to overcome Petraeus to qualify

TLO (Z) - finally made it, although had to do so through the losers bracket (narrowly beating Miniraser)

I went through Aligulac's prediction model prior to the matches yesterday (the full version is at the bottom of the post to avoid clutter here), and the site predicted Dayshi, ShoWTimE, TLO, and Petraeus to qualify.  Dayshi was bounced very early and it's incredible to think how much his game has slipped in order to fail seven straight times.  Petraeus came close, but his exclusion is another surprise.  The popular DeMuslim is another notable failure, while Miniraser, Zanster, and Adonminus are former Premier players who did not qualify.    In terms of how the second week's qualifiers matched up with Aligulac's (unfinialised) foreigner rankings, 8 of the 12 got through (Dayshi, Petraeus, Zanster, and the suspended GunGFuBanDa did not).  In terms of the racial balance, EU finished with 10 Protoss, 9 Terran, and 9 Zerg.

 

NA Qualifiers

Day 3 (107 players)

Polt (T) - didn't lose a match in qualifying (knocking off Minigun)

Xenocider (T) - also didn't lose a match, beating hendralisk on his way through

Guitarcheese (Z) - Suppy was his most notable opponent

State (P) - beat HuK and ViBE to qualify

Scarlett chose not to play despite quite soft brackets, waiting for the even softer ones of day four.  HuK's failure on the day was the biggest surprise.

Day 4 (106 players)

Scarlett (Z) - made her way through an easy bracket to qualify

Semper (T) - a surprise qualifier, he beat Drunkenboi to get through

Suppy (Z) - went through Goswser to qualify

HuK (P) - took out Jon Snow and Intense to qualify at last

So what players of note didn't get in?  DesRow, Minigun, Goswser, ViBE, and hendralisk.  Only hendralisk's failure surprises me, as both the other Zergs have come out of retirement, Chad Jones off of illness, and the Remax host hasn't been on form in months.   My prediction for EJK went down the drain; I also erroneously included Arium as a possibility last time, but he's too young to participate in WCS.  The racial mix from NA is 6 Zergs, 5 Protoss, and 5 Terrans, with Semper (aka Hale) the biggest surprise qualifier.

The first Latin American qualifier featured a huge upset as Catz was knocked out the first day by Venezuelan ByRada (who subsequently lost in the qualifying match against JimRising); MajOr, as expected, rolled through (not losing a game).  Catz made it through yesterday (although he should have lost to Cham), as did Kelazhur.

The first stage of the Taiwan, Hong Kong, & Macau Qualifiers are complete, with Has, Mamba, Rex, Sen, AK, Fist, Ian, and GogojOey reaching the second stage.  The name players of the region all made it through save for Slam, who doesn't appear to have participated.  The qualifying matches will be played on Tuesday.

The Challenger matches in China have come and gone, with surprise participant Clavie crushed by XiGua; iAsonu beat XY, Jim knocked out TooDming, and MacSed beat Top.

SEA also finished it's Challenger matches, as PiG beat KingKong and Iaguz took out Enderr.  The first series was pretty one-sided, but the latter was very close.

For pedants and the curious: the full Aligulac prediction of the Last Chance qualifier for EU:

TLO over Lambo

ShoWTimE over Complain

Hanfy over StarNaN

Serral over Adonminus

Dayshi over Zanster

Miniraser over DeMuslim (closest percentages of the pairings)

Bly over Fraer

Petraeus over Tefel

Winner's Bracket

ShoWTimE over TLO

Serral over Hanfy

Dayshi over miniraser

Petraeus over Bly

ShoWTimE over Serral

Dayshi over Petraeus

Loser's Bracket

Complain over Lambo

Adonminus over StarNaN

Zanster over DeMuslim

Tefel over Fraer

TLO over Complain

Hanfy over Adonminus

Zanster over miniraser

Tefel over Bly (close percentages)

TLO over Hanfy

Zanster over Tefel

TLO over Serral

Petraeus over Zanster

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Thoughts on WCS Qualifiers (Week One)

 

It has been a long time since my last blog (and yes, I finally realised posting on the main SC thread makes more sense than the moribund SC2 one).  I'm back because I'm enjoying the start of the WCS season with all the changes brought about for this year.  With that in mind I thought I'd take a look at the results of the qualifiers from this week (you can see some of the VODs here via Basetrade TV).

 

There were three European and two North American qualifiers this week (along with the only ones for SEA and China), which means 32 of 64 spots in Challenger are now claimed.  The European qualifiers have been very Terran heavy (7 of 12), NA has been relatively balanced, the Aussie's Zerg-dominated (as expected, 3 of 4), and China a mix of Zerg and Protoss.

In terms of the quality of the games, my views are coloured by those I had the chance to see, but on the whole the European qualifiers saw a higher quality of play throughout than elsewhere.

NA Qualified

Day One (137 players participated)

Hydra (Z) - the Korean qualified as expected, beating Polt and no one else of note

ViOLet (Z) - another Korean who qualified as expected, knocking out two of the next day's qualifiers (Astrea and MaSa)

Bails (P) - had a fairly easy qualifier, beating players a year or two past their prime (Goswser and ViBE); he's previously been in Challenger

qxc (T) - on his way to taking time off from SC2, he beat Xenocider and puCK to qualify

Day Two (133 players participated)

Kane (Z) - after losing to Azrael (!) on day one, he beat Goswser before pulling off a huge upset over Polt (his reaction is hilarious)

MaSa (T) - knocked out Xenocider and Jon Snow on his way to qualifying

puCK (P) - faced no one of note on his way to qualifying

Astrea (P) - beat out Scarlett and Korean EJK on his way to qualifying

NA had far fewer participants than EU, which is an indication of the relative health of the regions.  All the qualifiers are former Premier or Challenger participants.  The biggest surprise is Polt failing to qualify twice--losing to Hydra is no big deal, but losing to Kane is a shocker.  He still has two shots at making into Challenger and I don't doubt that he will.

 

 

Scarlett losing out is also a big surprise, but she skipped day one and undoubtedly will make it through next week.  HuK struggled as well, losing to ViBE and Drunkenboi thus far.

Other than Polt and Scarlett (who I think are no-brainers to make it), I'd guess HuK, Xenocider, EJK, and hendralisk will land six of the remaining eight spots (the rest going to someone listed in the previous Premier list below, although a surprise would be welcome).  Going by Aligulac's foreigner rankings the qualifiers will be (with the Koreans as given): Polt, EJK, Scarlett, HuK, Guitarcheese, Intense, hendralisk, and Suppy.

Here's the list of other active players (7) who were in Premier previously who have yet to make it: Suppy, ViBE, Minigun, Goswser, desRow, Arium, and Guitarcheese.

EU Qualified

Day One (223 players participated)

Beastyqt (T) - beat DeMuslim, uThermal, MorroW, and Dayshi to qualify

HeroMarine (T) - defeated FireCake, TLO, Petraeus, and Zanster to qualify

Lilbow (P) - beat Krr, MaNa, MarineLord, and Bunny to qualify

ForGG (T) - the only Korean in EU, he beat up on Protoss to qualify (PtitDrogo, BlinG, and Harstem)

Day Two (228 players participated)

PtitDrogo (P) - overcame Zergs Snute (!), Serral, Nerchio, and FireCake; he's a real surprise for me as I'd never heard of him before

Kas (T) - beat GunGFuBanda, Lamboking, and Hanfy (the EPS falls to Ukraine apparently)

Starbuck (Z) - defeated Bly, Welmu, and Happy to qualify

Bunny (T) - knocked out Zanster and MarineLord

Day Three (241 players participated)

TargA (Z) - beating Zergs got him in (Zanster, Snute, and Petraeus)

NaNiwa (P) - off his break he defeated MaNa, Hanfy, and Happy to qualify (with the usual controversy that accompanies him)

uThermal (T) - knocked out Lamboking and Serral

MarineLord (T) - beat sLivko, FireCake, and hOpe to qualify

With the exception of PtitDrogo and MarineLord, all these players have been in Premier or Challenger before (with the latter just missing out in previous seasons), but PtitDrogo is a significant surprise and I hope we get one or two more.

 

The biggest failure thus far is Snute, who has missed three times in a row (beaten by MorroW, PtitDrogo, and TargA).  With three more qualifiers to go (plus the "last chance" round), it's impossible to imagine him not getting in.  It's interesting that Snute has lost to all three races, indicating his issue isn't a match-up problem, but perhaps something a bit more fundamental (predictable style perhaps, but not having seen his games I can only guess).

 

 

Other notable players: Nerchio has struggled mightily, losing to Dayshi, PtitDrogo, and Miszu (!).  DeMuslim has been worse (losing to Beastqt, EasyRu (!), and Hanfy).  Then there's TLO, who lost to HeroMarine and twice to Lamboking (EPS power?).   Welmu has been knocked out by Zeth, Starbuck, and Snitchables (!).  Tefel has also struggled to get very far (perhaps less surprisingly given his repetitive play style).  MaNa has performed better than the aforementioned, but still hasn't reached a qualifying match yet--the same can be said of Dayshi.

 

 

A number of players have come close to qualifying (Harstem, Zanster, Happy, Petraeus, Hanfy, hOpe, and Serral); the first three I fully expect to make it.  With twelve more spots on the line there's plenty of opportunity for others, but there's far more deserving players than spaces so it's going to get increasingly desperate and interesting.

Here's a list of other active players (15) who were in Premier previously who have yet to make it (excluding those grandfathered into season one back in 2013 who fell out immediately): Strelok, KrasS, sLivko, DIMAGA, SortOf, Bly, elfi, FireCake, BlinG, ShoWTimE, NightEnD, Miniraser, Krr, MorroW, and LiveZerg.  Their previous success is no indication of their current form however, and most of these players will be on the outside looking in.

 

Going by Aligulac's foreigner rankings (link above) the qualifiers will be: Snute, Happy, Nerchio, Petraeus, ShoWTimE, MaNa, GunGFuBanDa, Dayshi, Harstem, TLO, Zanster, and Serral.

 

 

The SEA qualifiers saw PiG (Z), KingKong (Z), iaguz (T), and EnDerr (Z) making it through (77 players participated); all are previous Challenger or Premier players; on the outside looking in were Blysk and DemiLove.  No real surprises here, other than Petraeus being absent because he's playing in the EU region.

 

In China half of the qualifiers have been determined (with the other half resolved this morning EST): XiGua (Z), iAsonu (Z), MacSed (P), and Clavie (P) have qualified thus far.  The first three have all been this far before, but Clavie is a surprise.  I'm not familiar with the latter, but it will be interesting to see what he brings to Challenger (it's worth noting he had the easiest bracket to go through).  Aligulac rankings would give the remaining slots to Jim, Top, XY, and TooDming. [A brief update: Aligulac was 100% correct.]

 

If you spot any errors or mistakes, please let me know.  Thoughts and opinions are always welcome!

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)