WCS Winter Predictions

It's time for one of my favourite things to post about: predictions!  The brackets for WCS Winter are set so there's plenty of time to look into the Aligulac machine and see if it (and I) can carry forward our high prediction accuracy into LOTV (68% and 67% respectively last year; Aligulac did better in the early rounds, I did better in later rounds).  A few things to note: eight of the players were invited via their WCS points from 2015 (I've noted them with an (i)), while both Petraeus and JonSnow couldn't attend due to school, while VortiX has pulled out due to personal reasons (their replacements are noted with an (r)) [TL has posted a preview where it ranks all the players, but no predictions yet]:

Polt (i) vs Lambo - the question that always comes up when a Korean plays a foreigner is how much of a chance does the latter have?  Aligulac favours Captain America (78%) and he won the only match the two have played before (granting that was the summer of 2013); Polt's last loss to a foreign Zerg was to Petraeus in August, but he hasn't lost a meaningful best-of-five since the days of Broodlord/Infestor in WOL; Lambo has one career win over a Korean Terran (beating Heart in the LOTV beta), but I see no hope for the German

PtitDrogo vs Dayshi - the French Protoss player is given the edge (59%), although the Terran player has a dominating historical record against his opponent (11-4, with none of those games in LOTV); Dayshi is roughly 50-50 against Protoss players, while PtitDrogo was perfect until the Adept/Mothership Core nerf (he's lost both matches since); while this could be very close, I'll stick with the odds

Serral vs FireCake - the Finn is heavily favoured (70%), with a good historical score against his French opponent (6-3) including beating him the only time they've met in LOTV; there's really nothing in FireCake's background that suggests he'll take this series

Bunny (i) vs Has (i) - the Danish Terran is a massive favourite (77%), although until recently he was struggling in the match-up; the Taiwanese Protoss doesn't play Terrans very often and his track record isn't impressive (it doesn't help that everyone knows he's going to cheese every game), so I agree with Aligulac

MaNa (i) vs PiLiPiLi (r) - interestingly enough, Aligulac gives the NA player the edge (58%), largely based on the stats from regional play (the two have never played against each other); despite the Polish player's middling results in PvP of late, he has a much more impressive track record so I'll take the "upset" here

HuK (r) vs PiG -the Canadian Protoss player is heavily favoured (69%), with an excellent record against his opponent (7-2); while I don't think HuK has been a top foreigner in quite some time, PiG's record against decent Protoss players is quite bad (against other top NA Protoss he's 0-2, although State is arguably better than HuK right now--PiLiPiLi seems a reasonable comparison however); as for the Canuck's PvZ, against decent players he's 8-3 of late, losing to Petraeus, Scarlett, and JonSnow; I'll take the odds

ShoWTimE vs Nerchio - I've enjoyed the return to form by the Polish player, who was going through the motions at the end of HOTS; Aligulac gives the German Protoss a slight edge (55%); his opponent who has beaten him in their past two matches (granting the German won their only BO5 in LOTV); Nerchio hasn't lost a ZvP since dropping a five-game set to Harstem over three weeks ago (he's gone 13-0 since); one thing to note, in the biggest tournaments Nerchio has consistently lost to Protoss players (ShoWTimE and Lilbow at ROCCAT DreamHack, and then Lilbow again at DreamHack Leipzig), but all of those were before the adept/mothership nerf, so I like the upset here

Lilbow (i) vs SortOf - the Swedish Zerg is another player I'm glad to see competing at a high level again, but I (like Aligulac, 64%) see little hope for him here; while Lilbow hasn't set the world on fire in LOTV, his losses in PvZ (with the exception of Zanster) have been to players better than the Swede, so while his stats in the matchup (50%) are less impressive than SortOf's (79%) the only top Protoss the Zerg player has beaten in LOTV is MaNa; I take the odds

puCK vs MarineLorD (i) - the American Protoss is one of those funny players who, every once and awhile, gets hot and can beat just about anyone and he'll need that here as the French Terran is an overwhelming favourite (74%); MarineLorD has been very inconsistent in TvP, but since the last patch he's 5-2; puCK has been very good against NA Terrans (post-patch he's 7-1), but struggles against MajOr (no surprise) and Kelazhur (someone I think is a step below the French Terran); I like the odds here

XiGua vs viOLet - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (87%), despite being the least impressive of the Koreans in the tourney; there's nothing in the Chinese player's history that suggests any hope in this match-up, as he has a miserable track record against even mediocre Korean Zergs--take the odds

MaSa vs Harstem - while the Year of Harstem never seems to come to fruition, he's still one of the top Protoss players in Europe--despite that he's a massive underdog (39%) against the Canadian Terran, even though MaSa has had no WCS success (he's made Premier four times and been bounced promptly on each occasion); the Canadian has only played NA Protoss players in LOTV and since the patch he's 4-5; Harstem is 3-2 since the change; while this could go either way, I like the Dutch player here

MajOr vs Snute (i) - the Mexican Terran is one of StarCraft's great enigmas; he showed indifferent play in WCS last year, but is fully capable of beating anyone when motivated; the odds favour him (56%) over the Norwegian Zerg, but remember that his raw numbers are inflated by Latin American and NA players; Snute lost the last time they played (in December), but overall has an impressive ZvT percentage (70%); I like the upset here

Happy vs Hydra (i) - the Russian Terran is one of those players whose strength lies in the late game and there's no reason why the Korean will ever let him get there; the Zerg player isn't favoured (64%) as much as I would have expected, granting their map score against each other is even (6-6); Happy beat his opponent in a recent BO3, but he hasn't won a BO5 against a Korean Zerg since Golden in 2014, so I'll stick with the odds

Kelazhur vs Neeb - the NA Protoss player is favoured (55%), with the historical edge against the Brazilian (14-10)--they've played seven times over the last two months with Neeb holding a 6-1 edge; if there's hope for the Terran player it's that his one win is from just a few weeks ago, but I really don't see him winning here

Bly (r) vs Elazer - the Polish player is slightly favoured (53%); they've split their last two series and both are 7-3 in their last 10 ZvZ's against foreigners; this is essentially a statistical dead heat, but I'll take the Ukrainian players experience as the deciding factor

iAsonu vs TLO (i) - last year the German player saved his best play for WCS events and I see no reason why that won't be the case here; he's favoured here (61%) and has a 3-0 lifetime edge against his Chinese opponent; iAsonu generally got his head kicked in by European pros in WCS last year and hasn't beaten a European Zerg in LOTV; the only hope for iAsonu is that TLO is struggling, but while his ZvZ hasn't been out of this world it has been good and he's only losing to top players, so I like the odds here

Aligulac has the following players moving forward: Polt, PtitDrogo, Serral, Bunny, PiLiPiLi, HuK, ShoWTimE, Lilbow, MarineLorD, viOLet, MaSa, MajOr, Hydra, Neeb, Elazer, and TLO.  My list is similar, but I have MaNa, Nerchio, Harstem, Bly, and Snute winning their respective sets (I italicized the impacted players above).  INcontroL previews the the R32 and keeping in mind Geoff isn't a big fan of statistics (he sites none here), he goes with his gut, but with just one upset (FireCake) as compared to Aligulac's predictions.

Assuming the results above here is the R16 (I address both mine and Aligulac's projected match-ups):

Polt vs PtitDrogo - once again Captain America is heavily favoured (83%), with the two players having no history against each other; the French player actually has a solid record against Koreans historically, and Polt has dropped three series against foreigner Protoss players in LOTV (with no loses to Zergs and just one to Terrans); I feel like the Korean is vulnerable in the match-up, but there isn't evidence (yet) that PtitDrogo has fully adjusted to the balance changes, so I'll stick with the odds

Serral vs Bunny - the Danish Terran is favoured (60%); the Finnish Zerg has struggled against top Terrans in LOTV (1-4, with the win over Dayshi back in early January), while Bunny is 11-3 in TvZ; so while this could go the other way, all the indicators confirm the odds

MaNa vs HuK - the Canadian is given slight odds (53%), and he'll have the advantage of seeing his opponent's strategies in PvP from the R32; MaNa has a worse PvP record in LOTV overall, but HuK has consistently lost to good Protoss players since the balance changes (a win over puCK being the only exception) and he lost the one time he played MaNa (at HomeStory Cup); I think the days of the Canadian making deep runs in tournaments is long over, so take the upset here; if Aligulac is right and this is PiLiPiLi, then he is slightly favoured (58%) despite having lost to the Canadian in their only LOTV match (I'd take the upset if this occurs)

Nerchio vs Lilbow - the Polish player is favoured (59%) and I referenced his ZvP stats above; both players will have played the same match-up coming in, so they'll both have a good idea of what the other will do; Lilbow has beaten Nerchio 2-1 in series in LOTV, but both those wins were pre-patch while the Polish player just beat him in a BO7 a few days ago--I think it's a toss-up, but I'll go with the favourite; if this is ShoWTimE (as Aligulac suggests) the German is favoured (69%) despite having lost to the French player the last time they played (incidentally, that's his only PvP loss to a foreigner in LOTV)--this would be a toss-up in my opinion, but I'd stick with the odds

MarineLorD vs viOLet - interestingly, the French player is heavily favoured (67%), despite his TvZ being hit & miss with good players since December (5-5); when it comes to losing to foreign Terrans the Korean has dropped matches to MajOr and MaSa, but he hasn't been playing EU Terrans in tournaments and I'm not sure him pummeling NA players (and Kelazhur) means much of anything--he's also 0-3 against Polt, but his roommate is simply a better; the two players last met in WCS season two (where they split series); viOLet has never impressed me as a player--each game it's simply a question of whether his early aggression works or doesn't--but LOTV offers him a lot more toys to play with so I'll take that to give him the win

Harstem vs Snute - the Norwegian Zerg is a massive favourite (72%) and is 11-2 since the patch; the Dutch player won his last set against Snute, but that was pre-patch; Harstem has struggled in PvZ lately (2-4), without a win against a top Zerg player in almost a month, so I'll stick with the odds; if this is MaSa vs MajOr (as per Aligulac), he's a slight underdog (45%) and I'd take the Mexican in that instance; MaSa would be slightly favoured (51%) vs Snute, although I think he'd have no chance at all against a player of that caliber; MajOr would be favoured (62%) against Harstem and has a convincing record against the Dutch player, so I agree

Hydra vs Neeb - the Korean is slightly favoured (52%), as the American is buoyed by having won his last three PvZ's against Koreans (including Hydra); the Korean has only lost two series to foreigners in ZvP in LOTV--the aforementioned game against Neeb, as well as a series against MaNa about a month ago; with that said, it's surprising to see the ROOT player nearly lose to HuK and NaNiwa, neither of whom are in Neeb's class; the American was virtually unbeatable in this match-up pre-patch, but has dropped sets to Scarlett and PandaBearMe since; I'd love an upset here, but the safe bet remains the Korean

Bly vs TLO - the Ukrainian is a heavy favourite (61%), despite a terrible historical record against his opponent (8-15); TLO has had mixed results in ZvZ (5-5 recently), but last year his results outside of WCS had no bearing on his performance in the main event and that along with his dominance of Bly makes me take the upset here; if this is Elazer instead he's favoured (64%), although I like the upset again

Aligulac would have Polt, Bunny, PiLiPiLi, ShoWTimE, MarineLorD, MajOr, Hydra, and Elazer moving forward.  My opinions are significantly different (as the italics indicate), with MaNa, Nerchio, viOLet, and TLO making it through.  Moving forward with my assumptions, here's the R8:

Polt vs Bunny - both Aligulac and I see this as the end of the line for the Danish player, who is the clear underdog (37%); Captain America has lost twice (!) to Kelazhur in TvT, which isn't impressive, but neither match really mattered in the events he was playing in (they weren't elimination matches), so I'm not sure if we should take anything away from them; Bunny is very good in TvT and has beaten Journey and KeeN, but it's hard not to stick with the expected and go with the favourite

MaNa vs Nerchio - a classic match-up and a great one for Katowice; Nerchio is massively favoured
(81%), and while MaNa has struggled mightily in the match-up his opponent hasn't lost a ZvP in almost a month, so I'll stick with the odds; if Aligulac is right then this will be PiLiPiLi vs ShoWTimE with the German as an understandable favourite (73%) and I agree with that

viOLet vs Snute - the first of two epic ZvZ's, the Korean is slightly favoured (51%) with a very distinctive clash of styles (aggressive vs defensive); they are 6-6 lifetime, and viOLet has done poorly against good foreigners (2-4 overall); Snute has been average against top players of late (11-9); I suspect whoever wins will do so convincingly and I like the Norwegian with the upset; Aligulac has this as MarineLorD vs MajOr with the French player favoured (61%) and I agree

Hydra vs TLO - the Korean is massively favoured (76%) and I see no reason to argue; Aligulac has the ROOT player facing Elazer where he's also favoured (64%) and I see no reason to argue

Aligulac has Polt, ShoWTimE, MarineLorD, and Hydra moving forward, while I swap in Snute and Nerchio.  Predicting the semi-finals:

Polt vs Nerchio - the Polish player is slightly favoured (51%), with the Korean not having lost a TvZ vs a foreigner in LOTV yet (granting that's just 8 matches); the Polish player has done alright against Korean Terrans (13-10) and there are no surprises in his opponents strategy (MMM with a lot of drops), so it's simply a matter of execution and Nerchio has shown a tendency to choke at large events, so I'll take the "upset"; if Aligulac is right and Captain America faces ShoWTimE, he's heavily favoured (69%), despite a less impressive TvP record vs foreigners (7-3); the German player hasn't played a PvT since the patch change so in the absence of that kind of information I'll stick with the odds

Snute vs Hydra - the ROOT player is favoured (62%) and I see no hope for the Norwegian here; if Aligulac is right the Korean faces MarineLorD here and it's a virtual statistical tie (50% for Hydra); the ROOT player has a few surprising losses in ZvT (Raze stands out), but while the French player is very good in the match-up I think the Korean will move forward

Aligulac has Polt face Hydra in the final and that's where I have them as well--most fans would expect this even without researching it.  Aligulac favours (58%) Hydra and he's clearly the better player, although everyone remembers him throwing away a 3-0 lead in WCS season one last year (I don't think there will be a repeat of that here).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Thoughts on WCS Qualifiers, Viewership, Smaller Tournaments, and More

The WCS qualifiers for IEM have all completed and featured a lot of exciting games (to highlight a few, Happy vs Snute game three (ESL hasn't posted the VODs), Neeb's series against Polt (Nathanias did the VODs game by game, so check out his channel) and Hydra, Lilbow throwing his final game against Snute (a painfully bad final engagement), NoregreT missing his WCS debut by getting stranded while snowmobiling, etc.  It remains a little silly that the "NA" qualifiers are mostly Korean (as my spouse said to me, "Why are Koreans winning a North American qualifier?"), but it's something we have to live with.  Incidentally, the SEA qualifier (won by PiG) had extremely good viewership for the final day of this (8k), which is far above last year (3.2k).  I'm not sure what made the difference; the earlier cast was also higher (4k vs 2.2k), while the day one numbers were not (205 vs 640).  For those who missed it, here are the participants in IEM Katowice:
Seeded from 2015 WCS points (8): Hydra, Polt, Lilbow, Snute, Bunny, TLO, MarineLorD, MaNa
EU server qualifiers (8): Harstem, ShoWTimE, Happy, VortiX, FireCake, SortOf, Lambo, Serral
NA serverqualifiers (6): Neeb, MaSa, MajOr, viOLet, iAsonu, HuK (this is Petraeus' spot, but he can't attend)
Regional qualifiers (8): Has, puCK, PtitDrogo, Dayshi, Kelazhur, XiGua, JonSnow, PiG
Polish qualifier (2): Nerchio, Elazer
Overall 15 Zergs, 9 Protoss, and 8 Terrans.  Six players did not participate in WCS Premier last year: JonSnow, SortOf, Lambo, VortiX, PtitDrogo, and Dayshi,

The brackets are now posted and I'll put down my predictions in a separate post.

I also watched a lot of the WCS Shanghai qualifier, where Zergs dominated in EU (Nerchio and Elazer), MajOr won the Latin American qualifier (over Kelazhur--a eternal final), and KingKong the SEA qualifier.  In NA (after a giant clusterfuck with the brackets involving confusion over Korean participation--as a passport locked qualifier, ultimately it was truly NA-only), Scarlett qualified at long last (along with puCK).  For puCK this is his best result since ROCCAT DreamHack in the fall, but more impressive to me because all players are now fully engaged in LOTV.  As for Scarlett, it's her most significant result since WCS 2014 Season Three.  The Taiwan and Chinese qualifiers remain, but otherwise the lineup will be filled by an open qualifier and invites (I'll be curious to see who they choose to invite).

I haven't been able to watch the Rival StarCraft League (RSL) live, but I've enjoyed the VODs on Youtube.  While the tourney doesn't always feature the biggest names, I think it's a great place for players to cut their teeth in a competitive format and get some exposure (you can see the current season here).  A very minor thing I'd like changed: they need to turn up the game music volume a bit.

Speaking of smaller tournaments/leagues, I wonder if they'd have more viewership if they attempted a distinctive angle.  The EPS worked as a national tournament, although I think these days no single European country has the player base to make that work.  Viewership will be higher if a popular community caster is used (Nathanias etc), but I do wonder if simply pursuing an angle other than the usual "whoever signs up vs whoever signs up" would have an impact.  I'd like to see something regional, although the Koreans in NA make it pointless unless it's passport locked.  Speaking of which, I'm not sure I need to spell it out, but here's the prize distribution in LOTV from some of the smaller tournaments:
Kings of Craft (Catz): 2k prize pool; all Koreans
CybBet Race Wars (BTTV): 1.75k; top-two (1.5k) to Koreans
SEA OSC Championship: 1.652k; top-two (1.185k) to Koreans
RSL: $700 prize pool (1st through 8th); as an invite-only tournament they've thus far excluded Koreans, so all the money will go to foreigners when it is dolled out in early March
SEA Masters Cup (biweekly): $125; every other tourney Koreans are allowed to participate; the last in which they participated Hydra finished just outside the money
ASL Bacon Infinity Cup (weekly): $100 prize pool (1st-2nd); open to anyone, Hydra has won the last three in a row
Filthy Cup (weekly): $100 prize pool (1st-2nd); open to anyone, but viOLet has only played once and finished just outside the money

I was curious how streamers are doing--who the community is supporting as well as trends over the past year or so (sadly Conti stopped providing his viewership numbers on TL almost a year ago).  Using the first six weeks of 2016 (via Fuzic; I'm ignoring Winter for obvious reasons), I've started with streamers who have put out at least 10 hours a week throughout (their numbers for the same period in 2015 are after the slash--where there's significant improvement or decline I've coloured the streamer; green is up, red is down):
1. Nathanias 1.26k/1.07k
2. Maximus Black 773/1.25k*
3. MC 763/not streaming regularly
4. Hui 710/176
5. Rotterdam 587/959
6. Dragon 564/971
7. Fenner 541/155
8. Avilo 533/671
9. ForGG 446/not streaming regularly
10. Lowko 401/206
11. Neuro 313/96
12. uThermal 296/not streaming regularly
13. Anoss 267/230
14. MCanning 257/76
15. PiG 247/not streaming regularly
16. HTOMario 225/52**
17. CranK 216/582
18. RuFF 144/172
18. JimRising 140/68
20. Kaitlyn 132/286
21. puCK 125/155
22. ViBE 122/147 (over five weeks)

* MB missed the 10hr minimum in week 5, but streamed enough overall I've kept him in
** It's generally accepted that Mario viewbotted weeks 2-5 (see here), so I excluded those numbers

It's important to remember that streaming numbers in December and the beginning of January are higher than normal because of the absence of tournaments.  Nathanias does not have the highest total numbers over this period--Destiny and Polt both beat him, but neither stream as consistently.  There's also some nuance to the numbers above (the list) when it comes to some of the streamers:
-MC's numbers have been falling in 2016 (if memory serves he had a showmatch or tournament during one week as well that boosted his numbers), and he hasn't been streaming consistently since
-MaNa has not been streaming enough to be included above, but he has improved numbers over last year
-Rotterdam's overall numbers aren't that far off his yearly norm, so the decline looks worse than it is (he had a very good start to 2015) and I expect him to get back to those kinds of numbers
-Dragon's numbers have around this level for the past eleven months--the difference is due to a few huge weeks right at the beginning of 2015
-Avilo's numbers are also deceptive, as he's about on par for where he was throughout 2015
-Catz is excluded because he ran his tournament on his channel (along with having a low hour week), but he's roughly in the same place as last year
-Kaitlyn's decline is also related to early 2015, with relatively steady viewership over the period covered
-Other players whose stream numbers are notably higher: HeRoMaRinE and State
-DeMuslim has excellent viewership (1k+), but over both periods barely streamed (c.7 hours a week)
-popular streamers from early 2015 who have largely fallen off: desRow (538; his numbers largely boosted by Remax), Livibee (she stopped viewbotting), Minigun (445; excluding a short week, his numbers declined, leveled off, and then he stopped streaming about a month ago), SuperNova (356; retired), elfi (196; essentially stopped streaming in October), Lillekainen (172; his viewership bottomed out in May), PiLiPiLi (122; due to school he's curtailed his streaming to the point where he's barely done any since October), and Ketroc (116; he stopped playing with the raven-change in LOTV).

We can draw a few tentative conclusions from the above: Legacy of the Void hasn't provided a noticeable boost to personal streamer numbers overall; conversely, there's little evidence of a significant decline.  I've heard a number of older SC2 personalities talk about how it's impossible for new people to establish successful streams anymore, but Neuro, MCanning, Fenner, and even HTOMario show that's not completely true.  Perhaps big viewing numbers are out of reach for newer personalities, but there's still space for growth at a more humble level.  Destiny continues to be the streaming king of SC2, albeit he comes and goes.  Among the pros Polt, Snute, and DeMuslim are the biggest draws.

In terms of WCS numbers it's hard to compare the current system to the old one because of how differently they are structured, but here's a look at the viewership so far this year (comparing the main events to the seasons):

EU/NA Qualifiers
EU 12.9k/10.7/8.8k/7.7k/7.5k/7.2k (avg 9.1k)
NA 7.5k/7.4k/6.6k/6.3k/5.5k (avg 6.6k)

EU/NA Challenger
EU 16.7k/15.9 (16.3k)
NA 8.8k/6.9k (7.8k)

There are major differences in how these are done (and by whom), but the NA qualifier numbers are higher (3.5k) and Challenger lower (10.1k) than season three last year (BTTV's inconsistent NA coverage had less impact than I would have guessed); while the EU numbers are higher (8.9/13.3k).  These are fairly subtle differences and could be seen as a statistical wash, but if there's a positive to be drawn from it, it's that the new system hasn't turned away fans despite the different format (and slightly fewer Koreans).  GSL has enjoyed a slight increase in numbers--Code A with a 12.9k average (there's nothing to compare that too), while the early days of Code S (Groups A-B) has a bump (16.3k vs 11.3k, 12.5k vs 9k), granted, Taeja may be the reason for the initial bump.

I'd never read The Weekly All-In before (you can thank Neuro for directing me to it), but I checked out the latest issue (#42) and it's seems to be composed of lighter TL-style opinion pieces.  Like TL, when predictions are made there's no reference to Aligulac (I'm not sure why).  Chad Abshire has a piece on foreigners and while he doesn't share the innate hostility to the foreign scene that you see from TL writers (or Thorin), he offers no solutions to supporting the foreign-scene despite understanding its importance.  I'm not sure why a true region lock (passport-lock) is such a difficult step for people to make, but I assume it's simply from a desire to see Koreans in local events.

Chanman hasn't aired an Unfiltered episode since the Thorin debacle a few weeks ago, so into the talk show space comes NoregreT with Skype Memes, an NA-focused show (the thread).  I'm not sure how it will turn out (or if he'll post it to Youtube), but it could fill the pro-focused vacancy left by Remax.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

It was a lot of fun watching the ladder given the raised stakes the WCS system has imposed--virtually no barcodes and no hackers (at least, not in the top-100); I've seen a lot of comments from pros talking about how much better the ladder was because of it and as a fan it was fun watching players move up and down the ladder.  It was also interesting to see how favourite streamers measured up when the ladder mattered to pros (some acquitted themselves quite well).  I really hope Blizzard does this again, even if it does mean 3 of the 4 top-NA spots will default to the Koreans.  A few points from it:
-viOLet's public account in NA is Protoss, even though he's theoretically better at both Zerg and Terran (at least in HOTS for the latter)
-qxc, who retired in October, is back grinding the ladder and actually cracked the top-16; he's an entertaining and intelligent part of the scene that I'd be glad to have back in whatever limited capacity (he's said he's back just for this, but you have to wonder if that will prove to be the case)
-Zeal, who made it to WCS Challenger in season two last year is back grinding (he ultimately didn't crack the top-25)
-Suppy participated having not appeared in competitive play for six months (he also wasn't in the top-25)
-Xenocider, gone for the same period, was grinding (finishing 25th)
-Cowman reappeared (gone from the competitive scene back in 2014); not in the top-25
-Socke is back ladder grinding after departing for Heroes of the Storm a year or so ago (he failed to make it)
Here's the NA list:
1. Hydra
2. Polt
3. Neeb
4. viOLet (as Protoss)
5. PandaBearMe
6. PiLiPiLi
7. JonSnow
8. NoRegreT
9. HuK
10. MaSa
11. State
12. puCK
13. Bails
14. Intense
15. KoMA
16. qxc
Scarlett was left on the outside looking in (17th) and I wonder if she regrets laddering so late in the process.  Here's the rest of the top-25:
18. Drunkenboi
19. RayReign
20. RuFF
21. Semper
22. noname
23. Jig
24. PiG
25. Xenocider

The only tweak I'd like to see to this is for them to force players to play the race they'll play in WCS.  In terms of surprises I think the final three qualifiers stand out, as they beat out bigger names, and PandaBearMe seems to have hit another level.  The top-four are, without question, the best players currently in NA.

As for EU, here are the results:
1. Nerchio
2. Happy
3. ShoWTimE
4. Lilbow
5. Mencemeat (MajOr)
6. PtitDrogo
7. Bly
8. MaNa
9. Elazer
10. Dayshi
11. Harstem
12. Snute
13. MarineLorD
14. Lambo
15. Serral
16. SortOf
The rest of the top-25:
17. Zanster
18. Tefel
19. souL
20. Welmu
21. Guru
22. (barcode Protoss)
23. uThermal
24. TLO
25. GunGFuBanDa

MajOr is already qualified through Copa America so his impressive performance means nothing in terms of the qualifier (Zanster is in at #17).

We continued to get goofy seeding for WCS Circuit events, although it has improved slightly for the Winter Championship.  I thought the qualifiers were thoroughly entertaining and the Everything-Except-EU qualifiers were especially blessed with a multitude of community casters (viewership suffered a little from Basetrade not covering them, but was solid nonetheless).  There were a ton of very entertaining games, including some early matches (such as EonBlu vs PriNce in EU or Probe vs Drukenboi, to name only two).

IEM Taipai has come and gone and featured a fantastic semis and finals paired with a very underwhelming round of eight (with the exception of Polt's series).  sOs beat ByuN 4-2 to win the tourney.

Rifkin remarked the other day (February 4th during the EU qualifier) that he was surprised there wasn't much hype for his TING tournament or ROOT's Kings of the Craft despite decent prize-pools/players.  If he's right and there wasn't much chatter in the SC2 world about either, it doesn't seem to have impacted the usual viewership for BTTV (and Catz's event did well); my guess is the lack of hype has to do with both tourney's using the same tired old formula of foreigner vs middling Korean (with apologies to sOs)--all the money went to Koreans in ROOT's event and that's likely to be the case for BTTV's as well--it's something fans have seen a million times before and it's not that interesting.  If either event had a truly "best-on-best" contest (either all-Korean or all-foreigner) there would be more excitement about it.

The cries of those complaining about how the new WCS system impacts Koreans continue unabated and even in a supposedly "balanced " article was unable to represent the other side or truly address the issues at hand.  I've gone through all this before but for the sake of thoroughness I'll go through it again (a somewhat related discussion about negativity and elitism can be seen on Jakatak's Tea Time, which isn't to say either Jakatak or Neuro would agree with my opinions):
-there's been no attempted breakdown explaining how the current system is going to destitute players; no examples are provided, no comparisons are made, we're simply meant to take it on faith that it's the case
-it's not mentioned that the 2 SSL and GSL events this year represent one more event than Korea had in either 2013 or 2014
-the fact that there's more prize money available in Korea forces those complaining about WCS to make awkward arguments about how that money is being distributed, despite the fact that the distribution in Korea has always been top-heavy and is therefore nothing new
-there's no actual argument made for how to improve the foreign scene (or even an acceptance that it needs help)--the attitude is very much sink or swim (and occasionally the unsubstantiated statement that no one wants to watch foreigners)
-the "people want to see best-on-best" argument doesn't address the fact that foreign tournaments never featured best-on-best anyway (except for one IEM in 2014), nor does it make any sense when the Koreans who most benefited from the previous system were those who failed at "best-on-best" in the first place (something a chagrined Paul Chaloner admitted to on The Late Game)
-Korean pros are paid much better than foreign players and while fans will point out that the B-teamers don't get as much there's no similar consolation for a foreign player in the same position; we could go down the rabbit hole of what Koreans get versus foreigners, but this is something that never gets discussed by those making the complaints
-I could go on and on but I realise the reason we can't have a rational discussion about this is because fans who are upset are having an emotional response to how they perceive the changes--it's not about what's rationally or logically true, simply about how they feel.  This is unfortunate because while I have my own view of what's best for SC2, I'm hardly infallible and I'd love to see something tangible that might suggest flaws in my own perception

MaximusBlack put out a long video about the community which, despite its length, basically boils down too: be nice to content creators.  No one is going to argue with this point, although Maximus' rambling, passionate speech isn't going to persuade trolls to change.  Like ReDeYe on TLG he emphasized the diminished state of SC2 and in both cases I found this bizarre--is anyone making the counter argument?  This seems like a debate you'd have in 2013 (indeed, the whole point of the structural changes to WCS is an attempt to prevent a further slide).  Similarly, he states the obvious that content producers and players will follow the money (if they can), which I think is the case whether the community is toxic or not (people need to pay bills).  What I found particularly interesting is that the toxicity he mentioned are things I barely see--although he may read more Reddit threads than I do--most of what I see are complaints about the WCS in terms of Koreans (see above) and balance complaints, about which content creators and players are often the leaders in pushing.  (It's worth noting, anecdotally, that most eSports scenes are seen as far more toxic than SC2.)  The impetus for his video seems to have been a silly thread about BaseTradetv, but at this stage I can't imagine Rifkin cares about random trolling on Reddit.  The strangest thing that came up in the video was him talking about how badly he feels that MC burned through half a million (plus salary) in earnings and now needs to beg for money--the Boss Toss needs to take responsibility for himself, that's not on the community.  Ultimately I'm not sure what Maximus is trying to accomplish here--as Sakkyoku-Sha points out in the thread, the video is vague and I find the tone basically scolding "behave or else SC2 will die!"  I don't think that works, but we can always hope something positive comes of it.

A final little tidbit on Korea, the Washington Post had an interesting article discussing how many young Koreans are struggling financially (something the younger generations in America, Canada, and elsewhere can relate too--there aren't many haves and a lot of have nots).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

Great news for WCS as at the ladder will now impact qualifying (along with some money).  Here's the breakdown:

1st place - US$1,400 & direct qualification to the WCS Circuit Winter Championship

2nd place - US$1,200 & direct qualification to the WCS Circuit Winter Championship

3rd-4th place - US$800

5th-8th place - US$600

9th-16th place - US$400

The ranks are going to matter through February 12th and it's going to be interesting to see how it impacts the quality of ladder.  Nathanias raised some interesting concerns (the way your server choice impacts who you play), although I think as long as issues like this are being looked into I can live with a flawed beginning.  I also wonder how (if) this will impact FearDragon's NA Ladder Heroes (at the moment it looks like Ravi will shut it down, which would make sense unless he changes how it functions).

I have enjoyed the WCS Winter qualifiers thus far, although it was a little surreal to watch three straight Terrans (Drunkenboi, Semper, and MaSa) lose to viOLet in the exact same way--all three refusing to move beyond marine/marauder as the Korean made ultras and ran them over.  At least MaSa learned his lesson and knocked viOLet out of the qualifier in the re-match (sadly not streamed).  Ultimately Petraeus, Neeb, and MaSa qualified out of the everything-except-EU qualifier.  On the EU side Harstem, ShoWTimE, VortiX, and FireCake made it through (one more EU qualifier remains).

I caught the final of the latest ESL Americas Open (52) which featured a great seven game slugfest between PiLiPiLi and Excel (aka a million other alias').

Life has been arrested for match-fixing, which strikes me as bizarre for a player who has earned close to half a million US over his career.  An arrest isn't a conviction and it will be interesting to follow the case and see how it unfolds.

BaseTrade announced they were adding Oliomoley and FearDragon to their team, but I have no idea what that means in terms of content.  At the moment it looks like it means the latter two will now have the former's branding (something largely moot for the OlimoLeague).  I've seen some people Tweet out that this is great for the NA scene, but I'm not sure in what way (I've been disappointed with BaseTrade's NA material for quite some time--the Corsair NA tourney is a good example--does anyone care if Hydra wins an NA event?).  If this injects money into Ravi's projects (whatever those might be without Ladder Heroes), then more power to them.

I'm not sure what (if anything) needs to be said about last weeks Unfiltered drama (which spilled over into The Late Game).  The summation is simple: Thorin and Paul Chaloner dislike the WCS changes, but there arguments are incredibly flawed (it was bizarre was Paul acknowledged the flaws with Destiny, but then continued to repeat them):
1 - foreigners should only achieve success/money against the best Koreans, but Koreans who can't beat the best in their own region shouldn't have the same standard applied and be given access to foreign tournaments because...well no reason is actually given, but the implication seems to be they deserve it more
2 - best-on-best is what everyone wants to see in SC2...even if 99% of tournaments outside Korea don't come close to approaching that.  The tournament formulas they love (IEMs, DreamHacks, MLGs, etc) never actually featured best-on-best (as the laundry list of unremarkable Koreans who have won such tournaments illustrates), which makes their point very hard to follow
3 - Thorin specifically believes foreign players are well-paid in SC2 (something TotalBiscuit has unfortunately echoed), something which hasn't been the case for years and there's no reason for him (or TB) not to be aware of it.  I have no idea why these otherwise very savvy gentlemen are unable to see the flaws in their own arguments, or see that the status quo they support has failed.  Thorin clearly just hasn't paid attention to the scene for years, while TB is understandably (and publicly) bitter about what happened to Axiom.  Does any of this matter?  I don't think so.  Neither Thorin or ReDeYe are relevant to the SC2 scene.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)