Wednesday 30 April 2014

WCS America and Europe Challenger Predictions Day 2

It was an interesting first day of WCS Challenger as a number of players provided lacklustre performances--be it Genius who lost 0-3 to Krr and retired afterwards, as did TheStC after he lost 3-0 to Courage; elfi, who opened phoenix four games in a row and lost to Harstem 3-1, announced a break from SC2 immediately afterwards; then there was  JYP getting crushed 3-0 by Illusion.  None of the matches went a full five games, and in all three of five Koreans lost, helping to wreck predictions (Aligulac was 4-4 and I was 5-3).  Here's a look at today's matches:
 
Zicon small.png sLivko Zicon small.png Golden
 
Not surprisingly Aligulac gives the Korean an edge (62%) and given that sLivko has never beaten a Korean Zerg in multi-game matches in HOTS, there's not much cause to disagree (Golden is 8-2 vs foreigners in ZvZ of late).
 
Protoss HasuObs Ticon small.png uThermal
 
Aligulac has HasuObs as the overwhelming favourite (76%); uThermal's TvP has been better of late in BO3's and better (10-2 vs non-Koreans), but those wins are not against players in the German's class; HasuObs PvT has been very good, but all his post-patch wins have been against his fellow countrymen--I'm still going with the odds here.
 
Zicon small.png FireCake Protoss Verdi
 
Aligulac gives the Russian a big edge (75%) against the swarm host specialist, even though Verdi does not have the greatest track record in recent PvZ; FireCake's record is equally middling so for me this is either player's match to win and given the current map pool I'll go with the upset for the Frenchman.
 
Zicon small.png Bly Protoss MaNa
 
Aligulac gives Bly a slight edge (56%); the Ukrainian played in today's GOTAC Cup, which seems mildly insane and I wonder what kind of shape he'll be in for the match; MaNa has had very mixed results in PvZ although he did beat Bly in their most recent match (February); Bly is on fire against foreign Protoss in BO3+ (10-1), although none of those players were at MaNa's level--regardless, I'm with the odds here.
 
Ticon small.png aLive vs Zicon small.png Suppy
 
The Korean is Aligulac's favourite (60%) and given that Suppy's ZvT has been pretty bad lately (he lost to Ruff!) I have to give this to aLive.

Zicon small.png Ian vs Zicon small.png Check
 
Ian is Aligulac's heavy underdog (25%); interestingly, Ian just beat Check a few weeks ago, granting that the Korean is 9-2 in BO3+ ZvZ; I'll stick with the odds here.

Ticon small.png MaSa vs Zicon small.png Slam
 
Aligulac has the Canadian Terran as the heavy favourite (71%); although the sample is very limited and dated, Slam has never beaten a non-Chinese Terran in a BO3+; MaSa's TvZ is a bit mixed (and he did lose to TooDming), but I'll stick with him here.

Ticon small.png MajOr vs Zicon small.png KingKong
 
Aligulac has KingKong as an overwhelming favourite (73%), but I think the Korean's numbers are highly inflated from beating on Aussie Terrans not named iaguz; MajOr is very strong in TvZ and I believe he'll take the series.
 
So Aligulac has Golden, HasuObs, Verdi, Bly, aLive, Check, MaSa, and KingKong moving forward and I largely agree, but have FireCake instead of Verdi and MajOr instead of KingKong.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Monday 28 April 2014

WCS America and Europe Challenger Predictions Day 1

As we delve into Aligulac's crystal ball it's worth remembering they have markedly better success predicting the European scene (as you can see here).  I largely agree with their numbers in both regions for tomorrow's matches.
 
WCS Europe
 
Ticon small.png Happy vs Zicon small.png Lambo
 
Happy is Aligulac's overwhelming favourite (85%) and even on this season's Zerg-favoured maps there's nothing in Lambo's recent results to suggest he'll win.
 
Ticon small.png ForGG vs Zicon small.png MiNiMaTh
 
Aligulac gives the Korean an even greater edge than Happy above (96%) and I see no reason to question it.
 
Protoss elfi vs Protoss Harstem
 
Aligulac gives elfi a significant edge (60%), despite Harstem beating MC and elfi himself recently (March and February respectively), but elfi is 17-2 (!) in PvP, so I'll again go with the odds.
 
Protoss Genius vs Protoss Krr
 
Surprisingly Aligulac does not give Genius an enormous edge (only 62%), despite being 9-1 against foreigners in PvP (granted most of those results are quite old); Krr has beaten solid European competition, but I don't foresee him winning here.
 
WCS America

Picon small.png desRow vs Zicon small.png viOLet
 
Not surprisingly, Aligulac gives the Korean a huge edge (85%) and despite desRow pulling off the upset in season one over Apocalypse, I don't see any miracles from the Canadian this time around (especially with so little time to prepare).

Ticon small.png Illusion vs Picon small.png JYP
 
Aligulac gives this to JYP (66%), and while Illusion has solid TvP against his fellow foreigners he has no wins over decent Koreans in HOTS; I stand with the odds.

Ticon small.png SeleCT vs Picon small.png Jim
 
Aligulac see's Jim winning here (81%) and there's nothing in SeleCT's recent  history to suggest a different result.
 
Zicon small.png Courage vs Ticon small.png TheStC
 
The most even match-up of the day via the odds (Aligulac gives the Korean a 54% chance); TheStC has barely played over the last four months, but before taking time off was struggling against foreign Zergs; Courage hasn't played a Terran since January and hasn't faced a non-Chinese Terran since July--this makes their numbers in the match-up suspect; I think the time off will hurt the Korean, so I'll go with Courage for the upset.
 
Aligulac has Happy, ForGG, elfi, Genius, viOLet, JYP, Jim, and TheStC moving forward and I agree on all points except the last where I believe Courage will make it through.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

News & Notes (April 28th)

DreamHack Bucharest took place over the weekend and Life won the event.  Given who attended/was invited, the Zerg-heavy results were not surprising.  The quality of the games was a mixed bag and the event comes nowhere near the quality of IEM or WCS.  On the whole I was disappointed with the R16 onwards, although I enjoyed the many upsets in the group stage (ToD beating Jaedong and Golden; Snute beating HyuN (and he should have beat Jaedong, but threw the final game); KrasS beating RorO; Zanster and Bunny beating First and Patience (Bunny beating the latter twice); and uThermal beating jjakji).  My disenchantment with the latter stages isn't due to the lack of foreigners (or their success), but rather the humdrum collection of Koreans (only two Code S players and Innovation barely counts), and the fact that DreamHack sticks to a BO3 format up until the finals which is not a great way to decide who the better player is.  Regardless, viewership looked strong despite all the ZvZ's (official numbers should be available soon).

WCS Europe and NA begin their Challenger matches this week (I'll post predictions shortly) and I'm looking forward to the BO5 format--we should see good games and no player should be able to luck or cheese their way into Premier.

ploguidic3 takes a look at Adblock's impact on Twitch.  I don't think the constant imploring for people to turn off Adblock is ever going to work, although in the short term it helps streamers recoup a tiny amount of the money they are losing.  I can't speak for others, but personally I have no other option; running Twitch ads consistently crashes my Internet.  Long term streams will have to find better ways to monetise their content.
 
I'm a big fan of Aligulac--it's a peerless source for match histories and statistics and does a great job at predicting outcomes.  However, their ranking system does have flaws and its worth remembering that.  A snapshot (April 25th) has ForGG as the #1 ranked player.  Think about that--ForGG.  This is the same guy who failed to make it into the most recent season of WCS Europe and hasn't won a major tournament...ever!  It would be nice for Aligulac to create a more weighted system to avoid mid-range Koreans benefiting from pummelling foreigners.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Thursday 24 April 2014

WCS Europe Qualifiers

The community-casted WCS EU Qualifiers have come and gone and included some interesting results.  There are some foreign-language VODs on Youtube and all of BaseTradeTv's casts are on Twitch, but there's no comprehensive grouping of them, so for those looking its going to be a hodgepodge of availability.

In the first qualifier Verdi went through a number of strong players (GoldenToD), MaNa had a slightly easier road (Noname and DIMAGA), as did Patience (First, MorroW), but no one had more luck in the bracket than surprise qualifier Krr (who faced no player who'd previously been in Challenger or Premier).

In the second qualifier two more Koreans made it: Golden and First pushed through this time (notable defeats over Tefel for the former and SortOf for the latter); also qualifying was elfi (no significant opponents) and Stephano (back from retirement apparently, going through on his first attempt; DIMAGA and DeMuslim fell in his wake).
 
The third qualifier saw uThermal (MorroW), YoDa (no major opponents), DeMuslim (ibid), and ToD (MiNiMaTh, along with two epic PvP's against GunGFuBanDa) make it through.
 
Finally the Wildcard qualifier (which, unlike NA, was not full of Koreans) featured a pretty light lineup with most of the heavyweights already through; Tefel (no major opponents), MiNiMaTh (who didn't face big names, but had a difficult bracket), MorroW (beating Noname and Socke), and Harstem (no major opponents) move on.  The best match of the day was early, with DieStar holding off an all-in on Alterzim from KnowMe.
 
Overall 8 Protoss, 4 Terrans, and 4 Zergs made it through to Challenger (so the overall balance is 14/7/11).  Of the four Koreans who qualified, YoDaFirst, and Patience tried and failed to get in last season via the Wildcard (they were eliminated by DIMAGA, DieStar, and MaNa); Golden hadn't played in the WCS since getting knocked out of the America season two qualifier by Hendralisk.
 
Thoughts: all the big name Koreans made it through (only German-based Revenge failed).  The following players came closest to qualifying: GunGFuBanda (three times!), DIMAGASortOf, HeroMarine, DaNa, JonnyREcco, souL, DeViL, Lambo, and hOpe.  Others who made it one step from the final match  (not including the above): GenjiTakiya, Adonimus, Serral, Ourk, AlastOr, Revenge, CheeseKingElroye, Socke, RainMan, UniQFazer, Snitchables, Ret, sLh, Adelscott, ABomB, and Psionic.
 
Here are previous Premier/Challenger players who tried and failed to qualify (seasons in brackets; for Premier players I didn't include their Challenger appearances):
Premier: DIMAGA (1-2), Ret (1-2), SortOf (1-2), ThorZaIN (1-3), Socke (1), Strelok (1), KrasS (1), Beastyqt (2), and Noname (3)
Challenger: Adonminus (3-4), HappyZerg (3-4), uzer (1, 3), AlaStor (2), sLh (4), Mekar (4), ABomB (4), HeroMarine (4), DieStar (4), Zanster (4), Lambo (4), hOpe (4), Revolver (4) and JonnyREcco (3)
Past Premier participants TitaN (1-3), SaSe (1, 3), and Feast (1) did not participate.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Sunday 20 April 2014

News & Notes (April 20th)

Earlier in the week I looked at map balance in season one of WCS (from the round of 32 onwards).  It included various surprises; of the maps that remain in season two Alterzim has the wildest variance as it was imbalanced in all three match-ups (Zerg over Protoss/Terran; Protoss over Terran).
 
I also looked at the WCS America Qualifiers.

I saw some of the Copenhagen Games Spring tournament, but it was hampered by incessant microphone problems.  There were a lot of good players attending and it's unfortunate nothing better could be produced.  HyuN won the tournament easily (he was 18-4 in maps), with Happy coming second and Serral and elfi 3-4.  Only two other Koreans participated, with Golden getting knocked out by Happy and Patience losing to elfi.

I watched some of the MLG Anaheim qualifier, but Destiny is an awful caster which made it difficult to enjoy the matches.  MajOr, viOLet and HuK qualified.
 
lichter gives us his best games in March
 
A study looking at SC2 players concludes that they being to decline at age 24.  As with all averages, I'd take the number as simply a basic guideline.

Speaking of older players, yet another has returned to competitive play in the name of Nony.  I wasn't sure how serious he was, but he qualified for WCS Challenger which demonstrates a solid amount of skill.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Saturday 19 April 2014

WCS America Qualifiers

I watched both American qualifiers (which was well-covered by the community and ESL).  Day one saw Kane, Guitarcheese, Xenocider, and viOLet make it through (beating Phog, SaroVati, EliGE, and Catz).  Guitarcheese and Xenocider had easy paths through the qualifier (the latter in particular); Kane and viOLet return to Challenger from last season.

Day two saw qxc, Nony, Suppy, and hendralisk make it through (beating NayA, Cowman, Koma, and Siphonn).  Nony is the only surprise, as he hasn't participated in WCS since failing to make the first season qualifier last year.  Suppy and qxc are returning to Challenger.  None of the successful qualifiers had particularly difficult brackets.
 
A couple of players not mentioned above of interest: Sheth, who hadn't played a competitive game since December of 2012 (he took part in the day one qualifier and didn't win a game).  Also interesting as a non-participant is hellokitty, who came just short of making challenger last season and was in Premier for season one last year.
 
The wildcard ladder qualifier turned into an all-Korean affair as JYP (who tried and failed to qualify for WCS America season one last year), Check (who returns from last season), and Pigbaby (could not crack Code A last season) made it through (Ryung, who failed to qualify for Code A last season, lost the final placement match to Check).

Fourteen Players failed to make Challenger from last season (those in italics did not participate in a qualifier this time around): Bails, Apocalypse (back in Korea), Cowman, Koma, Sage (inactive), SaroVati, Jig, Catz, AstreaDrukenboi, Tassadar (back in Korea), PiG, EnDerr, and iAsonu.  The surprise for me is Catz not making it through.
 
From the other region qualifiers we have: Jim and Courage (China, both returning), iaguz and KingKong (SEA, the latter returning), Slam and Ian (Taiwan, both returning).

In total there are 10 Zergs, 4 Protoss, and 3 Terrans entering Challenger (echoing predominance of Zerg from last season).  Of the 17 qualifiers, 7 players are new to Challenger this year (41%), which is slightly less turnover than season one.  The exact same number of Koreans made it through the qualifiers (5) as before, although as there are less players qualifying this season so there are proportionally more.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Tuesday 15 April 2014

WCS Map Balance in Season One

I took a look at racial performance on season one's WCS maps, keeping in mind this says nothing about the disparity in talent between the players in the matches (just R32 onward, the most frequently played to least; those in italics are maps that have been removed for season two, while those in bold heavily favoured one race over the other with the appropriate colour):

WCS Korea

ZvP (43-37)
Daedalus Point 11-9
Alterzim 9-4
Yeonsu 3-8
Polar Night 7-3
Habitation Station 4-6
Heavy Rain 6-4
Frost 3-3

PvT (10-8)
Heavy Rain 3-3
Frost 2-2
Alterzim 2-2
Yeonsu 1-1
Daedalus Point 1-0
Habitation Station 1-0

TvZ (7-10)
Yeonsu 1-4
Alterzim 2-2
Polar Night 2-1
Habitation Station 0-2
Heavy Rain 2-0
Frost 0-1

It's interesting that Daedalus Point, a map considered Zerg-favoured, was as balanced as it was; Alterzim (which remains in the season two pool) and Yeonsu were the most imbalanced in Korea, although it's hard to judge the Terran match-ups since there were so few.  The most frequently played maps were Alterzim (21) and Daedalus (21), while Frost (11), Polar Night (13), and Habitation Station (13) were the least.

WCS Europe

PvZ (24-25)
Frost 4-10
Heavy Rain 7-6
Polar Night 5-2
Alterzim 1-5
Habitation Station 4-0
Yeonsu 2-2
Daedalus Point 1-0

TvZ (24-13)
Frost 6-5
Heavy Rain 4-3
Polar Night 3-3
Habitation Station 4-1
Alterzim 4-0
Daedalus 3-0
Yeonsu 0-1

PvT (25-18)
Frost 7-5
Habitation Station 5-3
Alterzim 5-1
Yeonsu 1-5
Polar Night 4-1
Heavy Rain 1-2
Daedalus Point 2-1

Protoss struggled on the big maps against Zerg (both of which remain in season two); I'm not sure what to make of Terran mastery of Habitation and Alterzim, although the sample size is small; it's bizarre that one of the best blink-maps (Yeonsu) failed Protoss in WCS.  The most frequently played maps were Frost (37) and Heavy Rain (23), while Daedalus (7) and Yeonsu (11) were the least.

WCS America

PvZ (26-21)
Frost 8-5
Polar Night 7-5
Habitation Station 4-5
Heavy Rain 3-3
Alterzim 2-3
Yeonsu 2-0

TvZ (14-23)
Frost 4-8
Habitation Station 4-5
Polar Night 2-6
Heavy Rain 2-2
Daedalus Point 2-2

PvT (20-21)
Yeonsu 3-7
Habitation Station 5-5
Frost 3-5
Heavy Rain 4-2
Polar Night 4-2
Alterzim 1-0

It's an interesting dichotomy that despite the presence of several Code S caliber Terrans in the region that Zergs dominated the ZvT match-up.  Only Yeonsu (the blink map) heavily favoured Terrans (as it did in EU), while Zerg had a mastery over Terrans on Frost and Polar Night.  The most frequently played maps were Frost (33), Habitation Station (28), and Polar Night (26), while Alterzim (6) and Daedalus Point (4) the least.

Throughout all WCS regions (I bolded all the maps being retained for season two):

PvZ (93-89)
Frost 15-18
Polar Night 15-14
Heavy Rain 14-15
Alterzim 7-17
Habitation Station 14-9
Daedalus Point 11-10
Yeonsu 12-5

TvZ (45-46)
Frost 10-14
Polar Night 7-10
Habitation Station 8-8
Heavy Rain 8-5
Alterzim 6-2
Daedalus Point 5-2
Yeonsu 1-5

PvT (55-47)
Frost 12-12
Habitation Station 11-8
Yeonsu 5-13
Heavy Rain 8-7
Alterzim 8-3
Polar Night 8-3
Daedalus Point 3-1

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Monday 14 April 2014

WCS Europe/America Finals

WCS season one completed yesterday as ESL ran the European and American finals (official viewership numbers aren't out, but there were far more people for the former--not surprising as there were more popular players in EU).  Aligulac's predictions (who I agreed with) was 1-1 in the finals, as MC beat the (albeit slight) odds in Europe while HyuN won as expected.  There series featured some fantastic games (the VODs are here; in each series the fourth game was the best), although it wasn't quite at the level of play that we saw at IEM Katowice.
 
In terms of overall predictive success in Premier games this season (absolutely excellent by the bye):
EU: Aligulac 22-10 (68%; I was 21-11)
R8 and onward was a struggle for Aligulac, although in many cases the odds were almost a coin flip
NA: Aligulac 19-13 (59%; I was 22-10)
I think the NA struggles throughout the season had to do with inflated foreigner numbers from before so many Koreans became part of the scene--guys like HuK and Arthur were statistical favourites in situations that made little sense
Combined Aligulac was 64% accurate in its predictions which is fantastic (my 67% simply illustrates that digging through match histories can tweak those raw numbers just a bit for a more accurate read).
 
WCS Europe
 
Picon small.png MC 4 Ticon small.png MMA 2
 
I was surprised that MMA never attempted an aggressive opening against MC, allowing the Boss Toss to dictate the pace of play.  MC might have held a proxy racks of whatever other early pressure MMA could come up with, but I wonder if applying that pressure might have helped him out a little.  Regardless, the recap: game one (Alterzim) both players opened economically, as MC sent out a pair of oracles largely to scout as he prepared for a two-base void ray all-in--MMA did not scout the attack and got run over.  Game two (Habitation Station) MC went for a stargate again while taking the gold base which MMA scouted this time, building five bunkers along with turrets in response; MC walked up the ramp and MMA held the first push; MMA was confident enough to drop the main which served largely as a scout and distraction; he then sent a double drop to the gold and ran the other into the main; MC broke the natural while losing his economy and then was chased away as MMA brought his other units back, causing MC to tap out.  Game three (Daedalus Point) MC went oracle again, this time teching to blink behind it--MMA killed the initial oracle with a widow mine; MMA scouted the blink all-in and bunkered up, but MC blinked into the main before the bunker was complete and died because of it (along with getting all his marines stuck in a time warp and not pulling SCVs immediately).  Game four (Yeonsu) MC opened macro as the Boss Toss went zealot/archon; both players danced around on the map, but there were no major attacks as they went up to three bases; MMA was able to nab a couple of templars and a warp prism as MC moved out; MMA tried to trap the Protoss army out on the map, but MC set up a flank and forced the Terran army back as he teched to colossus; passivity brought both players into the late game armies of PvT (ghost/viking versus colossus/storm); MMA attempted to snipe the natural, but couldn't; both players established their fourth bases; MMA moved out after some widow mine drops and forced MC to fight up a ramp and while he destroyed a ton of army he lost all his vikings and found himself behind; MC killed the fourth and then attacked the third with both exchanging armies; MC attacked the fourth and armies were exchanged again as MMA's SCV count was reduced even further; MMA counter attacked, killed the fourth, and MC was forced to tap out (this was a fantastic game).  Game five (Frost) both players opened with early expands with light harass designed to scout rather than damage; MC teched to blink which MMA scouted immediately and prepared for accordingly; MC transitioned into colossus, but that was scouted too so he went into zealot/archon; both players established their third bases; MMA snipped a warp prism with a mix of clever widow mine and unit placement; MMA poked the natural with a few units, but didn't accomplish much as he moved his army around on the map; MC didn't have an observer in his army and MMA landed emps on most of it army, but MC set up a great flank of templars by bringing them from his other bases and stormed the entire army, getting himself a 40 supply lead and forcing MMA back; MMA sent out double pronged harassment, but it simply gained him time rather than doing damage; MMA attempted a ninja fifth base, but MC had a zealot there which delayed it; MMA neglected defense of his third which got destroyed by zealots as he attacked and killed MC's third; MMA retreated to the planetary at the fourth but couldn't hold and had to tap out after a bit of a delay.  Game six (Polar Night) MMA opened three-racks and MC with blink as both players expanded; MMA scouted the blink and MC transitioned out of it going into zealot/archon; MMA tried to clean up the pylons on the map, but MC kept putting down more; both players took late thirds; eventually MMA went for double pronged aggression aiming for a nexus snipe, but MC was able to hold; MMA loaded up a four medevac drop on the main which wasn't spotted, but didn't do much given that he lost all the units to storms; MC attacked the third and MMA had no ghosts with his armies and no response to storm, ending the game and giving the Boss Toss the championship.
 
WCS America
 
Zicon small.png HyuN 4 Picon small.png Oz 2
 
Game one (Habitation Station) HyuN went for a proxy hatch in Oz's natural while Oz cannon rushed HyuN's natural; Oz killed the hatch with probes; HyuN sent lings into Oz's base as the Protoss hadn't walled off and morphed in some banes, killing off all the probes and ending the game.  Game two (Frost) Oz opened nexus first as HyuN sent slow lings (after his one-hatch expand) which assaulted Oz's wall; Oz held and then went for a super quick third nexus as well; HyuN responded with four bases and macroed up, going for his usual roach/hydra/viper army, while Oz answered with colossus/stalker; Oz crushed HyuN when he attacked and countered, killing the third and HyuN tapped out shortly afterwards.  Game three (Alterzim) both players opened economically with Oz building phoenix and after the early game Oz went up to three stargates as HyuN made muta/corrupters; HyuN was able to kill the natural before Oz was able to get phoenix range and enough army to fight in the air; Oz was finally able to attack and while a massive corrupter force pushed him back he reset the muta count; HyuN went on the offensive as he built more mutas and Oz defended with phoenix and sent the rest of his army to attack HyuN's bases (killing the fourth); lings killed the Protoss fourth while phoenix's killed all the drones at the sixth, but Oz had taken too much economic damage and had to tap out--it's a funny thing, but other than San and a couple of Code S Protoss I never see phoenix openings beat top Zergs.  Game four (Yeonsu) Oz went for a cannon rush which killed the natural and slowed down HyuN immeasurably (an attempted slow ling attack past the cannons didn't do much); Oz cannoned the third and killed it as well; HyuN went heavy roach as Oz went immortal/sentry/blink stalkers; HyuN defended the first attack, but lost against the second and while he survived on a ninja base (attempting a swarm host transition) for about ten more minutes the game was not in doubt (this was a very fun game).  Game five (Heavy Rain) Oz opened nexus first; after some passivity Oz attempted to kill the fourth with zealots, but HyuN defended with roaches; Oz teched to colossus and blink and killed the fourth; HyuN went muta and as Oz attacked he sent a roach counter to kill off Oz's third while HyuN trapped the Protoss army next to the natural, destroyed it and Oz tapped out.  Game six (Habitation Station) Oz went nexus first and HyuN went up to a quick three bases including the gold; Oz went for a stalker-heavy gateway push, but HyuN caught them out with lings, killing Oz's army and winning the game.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Sunday 13 April 2014

WCS Europe/America Semi-Finals Results with Finals Predictions

The semi-finals produced excellent games and included upsets as Aligulac again struggled with NA predictions (0-2); overall they were 1-3 while I went 2-2 (getting Oz and MMA incorrect).  Happily neither final will be a mirror (PvT and PvZ).  Here's a look at the games (the VODs are here):

WCS Europe

Picon small.png MC 3 Ticon small.png  jjakji 1

Game one (Habitation Station) jjakji went double SCV scout in case of a proxy (which MC did not do), setting up his own proxy third while MC took the gold as his natural; an oracle killed a bunch of marines but MC's second oracle was easily deflected; MC added void rays and gates looking to bust the natural and jjakji lost half his army chasing the oracles out on the map; the Terran held the initial push, but let MC's voids kill off a few buildings uncontested while he re-built his army; MC's next attack could not be stopped and jjakji tapped out.  Game two (Yeonsu) MC went stargate again transitioning into blink, which jjakji scouted and knew was coming; MC lost his oracle to a widow mine before beginning his attack, but jjakji ran his army into a time warp attempting to snipe the mothership core (which failed) and lost a lot of marines; MC added additional oracles for detection as he camped outside the natural; jjakji held the next two attacks despite putting himself into concaves each time; the third push by MC went much better for the Terran as he finally killed off the mothership corp and MC withdrew, throwing down the robo at home; jjakji attacked the natural and MC did not have enough units to hold and tapped out (this was the most entertaining game of the series).  Game three (Frost) jjakji went CC first as MC scouted him last and went into colossus drop; the drop didn't do much damage, but gave MC plenty of time to get blink and set-up a two-base all-in; jjakji scanned a little late as MC arrived with four colossi; jjakji managed to kill off the colossus, but he had already lost his bio army and had to tap out.  Game four (Daedalus Point) MC went for a zealot, stalker, mothership core push, but jjakji had a bunker ready and pushed it back; MC went proxy oracle as he added another stalker and walked the gateway units past the bunker; jjakji pulled back to his main, killing the first oracle, but the next killed most of the marines and while jjakji didn't die immediately MC kept building oracles making the end was inevitable.  It's a funny thing that, even though jjakji knew MC was going to be aggressive, he kept trying greedy builds throughout the series except in the game he won.

Ticon small.png MMA 3 Picon small.png San 2

An excellent series, albeit not with the drama of Oz/Revival.  Game one (Heavy Rain) MMA opened with four reapers (on his way to three-racks); the reapers killed a stalker and five workers, dying in the process as San trapped them in his base; San teched to blink as MMA sent two groups of units to sweep the map; MMA brought both groups in front of the natural which involved armies exchanging units rather than any economic damage; San went double forge and robo bay; a double drop flew over a probe, but San did not notice and got damage done as MMA pressured the front; the aggression made San's third very late (well behind the Terrans); MMA set up a great concave around San's third and the Protoss tapped out after losing his army.  Game two (Frost) MMA delayed San's natural briefly, but got his reaper surrounded and killed; San went for DTs which MMA figured out with a scan; MMA sacrificed marines to kill probes at the natural while blocking out the DTs; a DT drop in the main did a little damage; San went into colossus; MMA dropped the natural, but pulled back as soon as the photon overcharge was triggered; San's harassment at the third didn't accomplish much; MMA prepared for both templar and colossus getting a double starport and ghost academy while getting damage done with a widow mine drop; San was not ready for MMA's army and got steamrolled.  Game three (Habitation Station) San went for the gold base expand behind an oracle; MMA went for a widow mine drop in the main (having scouted the gold), but it didn't accomplish much; San took a quick third (at his natural) with void rays and gateway units as he transitioned into the zealot/archon; MMA went heavy on widow mines; San sent a warp prism into the main which didn't do much as he added a fourth base and teched up to colossus; MMA sent a doom drop into the main which despite having nothing prepared San defended well; MMA harassed the fourth as San attacked the front and crushing the forces there as MMA was not looking at his army and he was forced to tap out.  Game four (Polar Night) San went for DTs as MMA built three-racks; MMA walked his initial units into San's base and they did significant damage; MMA did not figure out the DTs for quite a while, but San assumed he knew and never sent them into the bases (simply killing units out on the map); both players took their third bases; MMA's double drop into the main got stomped (losing all his units), while an attempted snipe of the third was deflected; San pushed out with 2/2 as MMA had massed a ton of vikings, but San decided not to actually attack the third; MMA pulled SCVs with his first ghosts and attacked the third, but San managed to hold after a tense minute of fighting and MMA tapped out.  Game five (Yeonsu) MMA went for an ebay block and used the delay to allow his reaper to kill off the probe trying to plant the nexus; San went for DTs again, using it on the map rather than in the bases; MMA went for a bio push on the natural, but withdrew immediately; San transitioned into templar and storm; MMA sent a double drop into the main, but San saw it coming and he pulled back; San's warp prism harass slightly delayed MMA's third; San moved forward with immortals in his army, but MMA's widow mines kept San from pushing to far; MMA split his army with his drop doing very well, while his other force got crushed by storms; MMA added ghosts to his army as San teched to colossus; MMA attacked with an upgrade and supply advantage and San could not hold him off and tapped out.  As expected this series featured the highest quality of play from both sides.

WCS America

Zicon small.png HyuN 3 Picon small.png Alicia 0

The only one-sided match of the day.  Game one (Habitation Station) Alicia went nexus first as HyuN went two-hatch before pool taking the gold; HyuN snipped the third with roaches and rather than counter attacking after killing off most of the Zerg army Alicia stayed put as HyuN transitioned into mutas; Alicia had enough blink stalkers to push away the initial muta flock and then killed off some of HyuN's army as he pressured the third; Alicia used the warp prism to harass in the main which HyuN took his entire army to kill as Alicia harassed the gold base with stalkers; Alicia stayed out too long with the stalkers, lost many of them retreating and then was overwhelmed as HyuN attacked.  Game two (Frost) Alicia went nexus first again which HyuN scouted early and went up to a quick three bases; Alicia went for blink as he pressured a little with a zealot and stalker while getting a robo and then a third base; HyuN went ling/hydra in response to all he saw as Alicia teched to colossus; warp prism harass was shut down immediately as Alicia flew it right next to creep; Alicia policed his side of the map, killing off creep and maintaining watchtower control; HyuN attacked the third, splitting his army, but Alicia was able to push it away without any economic damage; HyuN added vipers to his army as Alicia took a fourth; HyuN forced a cancel on the fourth, but couldn't kill all three colossus; Alicia had harassed the fourth while the attack went on and HyuN was forced to pull his drones; Alicia attacked the third, but in a terrible position giving HyuN a giant concave--nevertheless killing the fourth with zealots harass while the fight occurred; HyuN rebuilt his army and took another great fight (as Alicia bunched up his army to maximum effect for blinding cloud) killing off all the colossi and the fourth; HyuN's follow up attack was poorly positioned, but he was so far ahead on supply it didn't matter and eventually Alicia tapped out.  Game three (Polar Night) HyuN went for the double expo despite scouting gateway first; Alicia tickled the third with a few units, but pulled back as he lost a sentry and a bunch of probes at home with poor micro; Alicia finally attacked the third with some zealots/stalkers and the mothership core, but more bad micro lost the Protoss his army without accomplishing anything; doubled in supply Alicia locked himself down on two bases while HyuN got all the upgrades and complete map control; HyuN used drop and when his roach/ling army appeared in Alicia's main he tapped out immediately.  Alicia was badly outclassed this series, allowing HyuN complete freedom to macro and illustrating poor judgement overall.

Picon small.png Oz 3 Zicon small.png Revival 2

Surprisingly this was the best match of the day.  Game one (Alterzim) both players opened greedy with Oz going for early harass with his initial gateway units; Revival went quickly for swarm hosts as Oz pressured the third with his initial units; once the swarm hosts arrived Revival seiged the third with roach support; Oz pushed the units away quickly as he used forcefields to kill off all the roaches; Revival added corruptors to handle the inevitable colossi; Oz's warp prism went into the main and zealots ran rampant all over the main and natural while Revival's army was camped outside Oz's natural and fourth; Revival killed off all the colossus, but had nothing to stop the remaining blink stalkers from attacking the fourth--despite all the chaos Oz did not kill any of the bases, but took his own fourth as Revival was forced to pull back and defend; once the Protoss was pushed back Revival caught Oz's army out on the map and killed a lot of his forces; Revival killed the third while a stalker force killed the his fourth; Oz built void rays to help deal with the corruptors; Oz again went around the Zerg army with gateway units, pressuring the third; Revival had to pull drones to fight the stalkers as his swarm hosts attacked the fourth (now the third); Oz joined his forces and attacked the main; Revival brought back the corrupters, but had to pull them back against all the void rays; Oz killed the main and natural, leaving Revival only his fourth as Oz established a ninja third--Oz was more than double the supply of Revival who was barely mining and he tapped out when the Protoss army attacked his last base (this was a great game with lot's of changes in momentum).  Game two (Polar Night) Revival anticipated a cannon rush and took the third as his second base--and he was right as Oz went to cannon the natural which Revival simply ignored; Oz went for an immortal push as Revival used roaches to kill off the cannons; Revival sent his army to Oz's natural as an immortal drop hit the main and killed both the spawning pool and roach warren as he teched to blink; Revival added hydras to his composition, but Oz snipped the hydra den with the immortal drop; Oz moved out and Revival aimed for a surround, but Oz's forcefields prevented him from taking too much damage; Oz postured by the third, but went for the natural instead and pulling drones was not enough for forcing Revival to tap out (this was another great match, albeit one-sided).  Game three (Habitation Station) Oz went for forge fast expand again, which Revival scouted immediately and took the gold base before his natural; Oz went across the map with his stalker, zealot, and mothership core while taking the gold as his third; Revival sent slow lings into the gold, but other than being annoying they didn't do much damage; Revival went swarm host/roach again as Oz got colossus--roaches attacked the natural and swarm hosts the gold; warp prism harass died immediately to roach defence; Oz tried to take his army around the contain, but Revival was able to box him back in; Oz got around the second time and killed most of the roaches and his third, but lost all his colossus to corruptors; Revival built a billion roaches and killed the gold; Oz's harassment in the main didn't work, but zealots came close to killing the third; Oz added void rays which helped kill off corrupters as Revival built mutas and their appearance resulted in Oz tapping out (yet another good game, mirroring Alterzim).  Game four (Frost) Revival went spawning pool before hatch as Oz went nexus first and then into phoenix and a super early third base; Revival responded with hydras as Oz teched to colossus and blink; Oz did not have enough units to fight off Revival's first push and took a ton of damage, losing his third and winding up at half the Zerg supply; Revival maxed out with vipers in his army and rolled over Oz.  Game five (Heavy Rain) Oz went nexus first again and went for a two zealot/stalker/mothership core push which caused Revival to briefly abandon his third, but otherwise it didn't accomplish anything; Revival built a bunch of roaches and Oz ran into them and had to recall; the roaches attacked the natural, but didn't get much done as Revival added hydras; Oz built immortals, blink, and +2 which he used to take a third; Revival added swarm hosts as Oz added colossus; Revival lost some units out on the map as he began to add corruptors; with three colossi Oz was able to kill all the swarm hosts before losing them and then killed the third; the remaining massive stalker army was too much for Revival to overcome and he tapped out (yet another excellent game as Revival was ahead most of the way).  I'll say again: a great series well worth watching (only game's two and four were one-sided).

Predictions for the Final

Europe

Picon small.png MC vs Ticon small.png MMA

Aligulac gives MMA a slight edge (51%) and the two have split their offline/BO5 matches in HOTS (MMA won the last one); I don't have strong feelings either way so I'll lean on Aligulac (which has been excellent at predicting EU).

America

Zicon small.png HyuN vs Picon small.png Oz

Aligulac has HyuN as the overwhelming favourite (70%) and if Oz hadn't just beat Revival it would be a slam dunk for me, but maybe Oz can do something here.  Both players have had a chance to see the other in the relevant match-up so there should be no surprises, but one Oz win over a Zerg isn't enough to sway me so I'll give this to HyuN.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Saturday 12 April 2014

WCS Europe/America Semi-Final Predictions

The matches are set and it's time to dig through Aligulac and make predictions for who will wind up in the finals of WCS Europe and America.  Predictions from the round of 8 struggled (3-5), particularly in NA (1-3) where all the Terrans lost--the region has been Aligulac's primary area of difficulty.

WCS Europe

Picon small.png MC
Ticon small.png jjakji

Aligulac has jjakji as a heavy favourite (59%--the highest gap in the semi's on either side); jjakji has had the easiest road in WCS Europe, facing only foreigners until now.  MC's record in the relevant match/circumstances is 8-6, with he and jjakji splitting their only two series.  jjakji's record isn't much different (10-8), with middling results of late (2-4).  It's as difficult to call as the one that follows, but I'll lean on MC as he won the only BO5 between them.

Ticon small.png MMA
Picon small.png San

The best two players remaining in the European bracket sadly have to play each other here.  Aligulac gives San a slight edge (50%), who has a good record in the relevant match-up (7-4), including a win over MMA at ASUS ROG; he's also lost recently to Innovation and ForGG.  On the other side, MMA lost back-to-back to Patience less than a week ago in similar circumstances, albeit not much is on the line at the Munich SC2 tournament; his overall track record is 8-7.  It's a tough call, but I think San will pull through (I believe whichever player wins this series will win the final).

If my predictions are correct we'll have a PvP mirror San/MC final (Aligulac has jjakji/San).

WCS America

Picon small.png Alicia
Zicon small.png HyuN

Aligulac predicts HyuN (56%) to win it; Alicia has a good PvZ record against Koreans (7-1), but other than Revival the wins aren't over significant players; HyuN's track record is mixed (13-13; 2-7 lately), consistently losing to top Korean Protoss, but winning against others--so is Alicia in that top tier?  I don't think he is, so HyuN moves on.

Zicon small.png Revival
Picon small.png Oz

Aligulac gives Revival the slight edge (51%), which is far too conservative as Oz has been awful in PvZ against Koreans (particularly offline where he's 2-8, including a 0-4 drubbing by Revival back in July).  Give this to the Zerg.

If Aligulac and I are correct it will be a ZvZ final between HyuN/Revival.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)