WCS Map Balance in Season Two (thus far)

With each region through the round of 32 I thought it was worthwhile looking at the current map balance in the pool (thus, I'm ignoring mirror match-ups).  I've tallied all results from the three rounds of 32 as well as American and European challenger results.  There's a lot of raw data so we'll start with the basics (keep in mind these results don't take into account the calibre of players facing one another).

 

There were 280 non-mirror games played, consisting of 138 PvZ's, 80 ZvT's, and 62 PvT's.  Frost (22%) and Overgrowth (21%) were the most commonly played maps, followed by King Sejong (16%), Habitation Station (14%), and Merry Go Round (11%); both Alterzim (7%) and WayStation (6%) were least frequent.  This arrangement of maps doesn't change much even when you break it down by match-up , with the most significant difference being King Sejong (little used in PvT).

 

As for overall balance, the most weighted by race were (keeping in mind the map tally totals were PvT 32-30, ZvT 40-40, PvZ 65-73):

 Terran favoured (TvP): Frost (9-5), Overgrowth (8-5)

 Protoss favoured (PvT): King Sejong (5-1), Merry Go Round (5-3)

 Terran favoured (TvZ): Overgrowth (9-5)

 Zerg favoured (ZvT): WayStation (4-2)

 Protoss favoured (PvZ): Frost (18-14)

 Zerg favoured (ZvP): Overgrowth (18-14), Merry Go Round (9-5)

 

So what about regional bias?  There are significant differences worth pointing out.  In Korea Alterzim and Merry Go Round were heavily favoured for Zerg in ZvP (5-1 and 6-1 respectively); King Sejong went the other way for Protoss (5-2).  Interestingly, King Sejong was Zerg-favoured (ZvP) in Europe (5-1), while that map favoured Protoss in PvT (3-0), but that is the only pronounced map in the region.  America had the most tilted map scores, with Frost favouring Zerg in ZvT (7-4) and Terran in TvP (4-1); Overgrowth was a Zerg map in ZvP (8-5), as was King Sejong (6-2); Habitation Station was also a Zerg stomping ground in both match-ups (5-2 vs both).  Europe is the region that most ignored WayStation, whose infrequency is echoed by Alterzim in America (there's no real parallel in Korea where no particular map was ignored).

 

Overall, King Sejong is the most volatile map across all regions and, in general, Zergs most commonly have the edge on maps (something predicted when the new map pool was announced).

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Europe: Looking back at the Round of 32

With R32 wrapped up it's time to take stock and reflect on the results.  The narrative from ESL was foreigners pulling off upsets over Koreans, so was that really the case?  Let's look at the results: Koreans were 7-4 making their way through the R16, but how did they perform against foreigners?  jjakji lost to Harstem, but YoDa knocked him out; similarly, MMA lost to LiveZerg (as did ForGG), but ForGG knocked him out; Mvp was just not on form (losing to ToD and uThermal); the biggest surprise was Patience losing both to Grubby and VortiX--as was LiveZerg beating both Koreans in his group.  In the previous season Koreans were 6-2, going 13-7 in matches; in matches this season they were 14-7--so have things really changed?  It doesn't appear to be the case.

 

As for racial balance, Protoss were 9-4, Zergs were 5-4, and Terrans were only 2-8.  As for the direct match-ups: PvT 7-0, PvZ 4-3, ZvT 4-1; Terrans got crushed by everyone, while PvZ was relatively balanced.

In terms of predictions, Aligulac finished 11-5 (I was 12-4, correctly assuming BlinG would fall out).  Last season Aligulac was marginally better (12-4), but either way, it's a fantastic ratio only thrown (as I've pointed out before) by the inability to fully parse the quality of player wins.

 

The R16 groups have been announced and here's a quick look at how Aligulac predicts outcomes:

 

Group A

 ForGG

 Snute

 VortiX

 Harstem

Not surprisingly Aligulac goes with the Korean, even though ForGG can't seem to beat any Protoss;
I don't believe Harstem's magic from the previous round will manifest itself again, so what about the
Zergs?  In 2014 (BO3+) Snute is 30-4 vs foreigners, while VortiX is just 5-3; oddly enough, VortiX
is much better against Korean Terran's than Snute, but given who plays who in this format in the end I
agree with the odds.

 

Group B

 MC

 YoDa 

 Welmu

 ToD

 

Aligulac picks both Koreans and given that the Power of Protoss does not appear to be an issue for YoDa I have to agree.

 

Group C

 First

 Golden

 Grubby

 MaNa

 

Aligulac again sides with the two Koreans and I see no reason to argue with that here.

 

Group D

 San

 StarDust

 Nerchio

 LiveZerg

Aligulac's Korean addiction continues; there's no reason to question San, but StarDust is beatable and the map pool is Zerg-friendly; LiveZerg doesn't have enough history against Koreans to judge, but Nerchio has beat StarDust their last two matches (granted those are awhile back) so I'll take the upset here and go with him.

 

The odds give us 7 Koreans and a Snute and I don't differ much other than adding a Nerchio to the mix and removing StarDust.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)