Wednesday 29 January 2014

WCS Challenger Results (Part Two)

WCS Europe has completed its Challenger matches and here's my look at how the matches went and how they meshed with predictions (my look at NA is below)--as per usual ESL is taking its sweet time in posting the VODs to Youtube.  These matches were generally not close, which was disappointing (if not always surprising).  Both Aligulac and I were 9-3 in our predictions.

(T)ForGG 3 vs (Z)Lambo 0
 
This looked like a mismatch on paper (97%) and boy was it.  I feel for Lambo, as I think most of the other players would have lost here, but he's a long way from challenging ForGG.
 
(P)Adonminus 0 vs (P)HasuObs 3
 
The German Protoss was the much more accomplished and experienced player and it showed.  Aligulac gave HasuObs a 74% edge and the games were not close.  Adonminus kept going for phoenix which HasuObs countered with blink stalkers and irrespective of what damage the Israeli did he got behind and stayed behind.  The final game was the most entertaining, as Adonminus went for the gas steal while HasuObs snuck a pylon in his opponent's main--Adonminus went for a void ray/probe rush but couldn't do enough damage.

(T)Bunny 3 vs (P)VERDI 1
 
Aligulac gave Bunny a slight edge (54%), but I incorrectly thought Verdi's 19-1 record against Terran would lead to an upset.  The games: Bunny expected a blink all-in, prepared for it, and crushed it.  Game two had a passive start and Bunny crushed Verdi's colossus/stalker army.  Game three Verdi's sloppy play, but he managed to get three-bases and won the first engagement and Bunny couldn't quite catch up despite some great control.  In the final game Bunny did a ton of damage with a simple marine push and held off Verdi's all-in and subsequent pressure for the win.  The series was not close.

(Z)LiveZerg 3 vs (P)Harstem 1
 
On the surface this match was a coin flip, with Aligulac giving the Russian Zerg slightly favourable odds (54%) and I thought he fully deserved the edge as Harstem continues to struggle in PvZ.  The games: Harstem went for phoenix harass and did a lot of damage, but allowed lings to destroy his natural and cancel his fourth and then had his push wrecked by banelings--he survived, killed brood lords he wasn't prepared for, but died to LiveZerg's remax on ultras [this was the best game from Day 4]. Game two: Harstem went for zealot pressure which accomplished nothing and he nearly lost his early third; LiveZerg (using the same strategy as the first game) went for another baneling bust which failed, but he killed the third while that attack was going on; Harstem made a push which was held off via banelings, but lost his fourth; the two traded with LiveZerg losing his fifth as Harstem continued to harass with a warp prism and LiveZerg gg'd as zealots swarmed his bases.  Game three: Harstem went for zealot pressure again which got shut down hard and LiveZerg (still playing the same style) pressured the third and Harstem's push got crushed by banelings (again) after some terrible forcefields causing his fourth to be cancelled; entering the late game Harstem rallied 6 high templars into brood lords, nevertheless Harstem's army crushed LiveZerg's and took out three of his bases as the Russian remaxed on mutas which won him the game.  In the final game Harstem went for zealot pressure again, losing his third to lings and then all his sentries; LiveZerg killed the third again (with banes), but Harstem survived and did some damage with DTs before getting rolled over by the ultra/bane army.  I have no idea why Harstem never tried colossus to deal with the ling/bane-heavy play, but I imagine LiveZerg will have to mix things up if he faces another Protoss.

(T)Dayshi 3 vs (Z)hOpe 0
 
While the two players have never faced each other in a tournament before, Aligulac has no hesitation in given the French Terran a big edge (79%) and he certainly deserved the vote of confidence.  The games: Dayshi's initial push accomplished nothing, but hOpe's push was just as futile and Dayshi dropped the fourth and did good damage; hOpe kept fighing marines with his mutas and losing them which eventually caused him to gg.  Game two Dayshi did a lot of damage with simple early game harassment which gave him an edge he kept until one bad engagement where banelings wrecked his marines, evening up the game until hOpe ran his banes into a group of marauders.  In the final game hellion/banshee pressure did a ton of damage and Dayshi never gave up his edge.  These games were not close and hOpe needs a lot of improvement with his muta control.

(P)BabyKnight 3 vs (Z)Revolver 1
 
This match featured another player (Revolver) who made challenger on a technicality.  Aligulac was relatively conservative with its odds (62%), but I had no hesitation in going with the favourite.  The games: I missed the opening, but BabyKnight's colossus/stalker beat roach/hydra and the Protoss was ready for the muta switch.  Game two each went for the identical build and despite BabyKnight donating a bunch of High Templar and his fourth base (twice), he kept winning engagements and won out again.  Game three Revolver went for a 7 pool on Alterzim and won easily.  In the final game BabyKnight's zealot rush won the game.  These games were not close.

(T)Kas 3 vs (Z)Zanster 2
 
One of only two genuinely close matches this week (ToD vs Miniraser was the other), Zanster was the slight favourite (62%), but I expected Kas to move on and despite a lot of errors from the Terran I was right.  The games: it was standard bio vs muta/ling, but Kas could never get his fourth base established and took far too much damage from banelings in the fights, eventually tapping out.  Game two Kas nabbed two early queens with normal hellion/reaper pressure and after losing all his hellions took the unusual tactic of remaking them while continuing with bio play which he used to kill Zanster's first push and take out his third; relentless pressure finally wore down the Zerg and he was starved out.  In the third game standard play saw Kas add tanks to his composition and like every other Terran who tries that against muta/ling he tapped out soon after.  The fourth game featured standard play yet again and Kas was able to take out the fourth, but didn't pay attention to his drop in the main and failed to take out vital tech when he had the opportunity; Kas made good tactical decisions followed by awful micro (taking out the fourth yet again while losing the half of his army to banes because he wasn't paying attention); his macro was too much for Zanster who got starved out like in game two.  In the final game Kas went for a blueflame timing and absolutely wrecked Zanster who was going two-base muta and didn't have enough defence.  This was an entertaining, albeit sloppy match.

(P)San 3 vs (P)elfi 0
 
San is unpredictable, so the odds (71%) were closer than you might imagine [less than 60% when I first made my predictions].  I couldn't see elfi beating San and I was correct.  I missed game one, but in game two elfi went phoenix while San responded with blink; elfi took out the natural with the one-base push, but the game stabilized and San took better engagements and rolled to an easy win.  In the final game elfi went DTs, but San force-fielded it out and the game went into macro mode with San crushing elfi again.  This game was one-sided, but that's more a matter of how good San is rather than how bad elfi is.

(T)uThermal 1 vs (Z)Snute 3
 
The Norwegian Zerg was heavily favoured (83%) and clearly the better player (and quite annoyed when uThermal put down manner-mules in the game he won).  The games: uThermal died to a roach rush.  Game two the Terran went for a two-rax bunker push that killed the natural, which he followed up with a hellion/banshee push which hollowed out the third; Snute was able to transition into mutas, but uThermal went hellbat/marine and overwhelmed him.  Game three Snute cancelled the Terran's natural with a simple ling run-by, but otherwise it was a very passive opening from both until uThermal lost his entire army on his first big push and then got his second army run overwhich cost him the game.  In the final game standard play went Snute's way as he destroyed the Terran's hellions when he wasn't paying attention and then surrounded his subsequent army and destroyed it--uThermal showed no ability to deal with mass baneling (the game dragged on for awhile, but was never in doubt).  I would have liked uThermal to go for more cheese in the match-up, but he has no hope against a player like Snute with just standard play.

(Z)HappyZerG 0 vs (T)jjakji 3
 
This was expected to be one-sided (Aligulac's prediction had jjakji at 94%) and I saw no reason to doubt it.  jjakji rolled HappyZerg in the first game with mech, stopped both his roach/bane attack and the follow-up all-in without any trouble, and in game three jjakji went for a proxy two-racks and despite scouting it early HappyZerg couldn't hold it off.  This series was not close.

(P)ToD 2 vs (Z)Miniraser 3
 
The odds were close (56%) for this one with ToD getting the edge, which I agreed with.  However, the French player wasn't quite on top of his game and was not able to pull it out.  In game one ToD went for an immortal all-in, but it got scouted and a counter attack before it hit caused enough damage for Miniraser to get a huge edge; the Zerg sat passively back allowing ToD to try to get back into the game as he faced swarm hosts; ToD kept going for the mothership which I've never seen do anything against Zerg (it gets abducted immediately and destroyed), but managed to make it work for a little while (he also forgot to charge  his void rays most of the game)--despite nearly equalizing things, ToD was eventually starved out as he was unable to prevent Miniraser from getting his vital sixth base.  Game two ToD went for the same strategy and won out.  In game three ToD went for a phoenix/zealot push that didn't accomplish anything and his immortal attack that followed was also crushed with corrupter/roach.  Game four ToD went for zealot/mothership core pressure and did a ton of damage, but Miniraser survived and went swarm host; ToD kept the Zerg on only two operating bases and was eventually able to overwhelm the Swede for the win (although it took forever).  In the final game ToD went for another immortal composition, but failed to kill the third and died to mutas.

(P)NightEnD 3 vs (Z)SortOf 1
 
It's incredible to me that these two SC2 veterans have only faced each other once, with NightEnD winning that match 2-1 (back in July).  SortOf was given the edge (66%) and I saw no reason to argue.  However, the Romanian was more than ready for his Swedish opponent and took him out.  Games: both players went super greedy and SortOf went for a roach push which didn't accomplish much (1 worker kill!) and NightEnD was able to snipe the third as the Swede went for swarm hosts and then killed the fourth, natural, and the main as SortOf took out his third and fourth and the Zerg could never get his economy back up, eventually losing to the Protoss' careful engagements.  Game two both players went super greedy again and SortOf was able to slow NightEnD's colossus push with very successful ling pressure that continued throughout the game and wrecked the Protoss economy.  In the third game NightEnD punished the greed with a zealot/mothership core attack that killed SortOf.  The final game SortOf scouted the upcoming aggression, but died to the immortal/sentry attack anyway.

Here's the look at WCS America (he NASL replays can be found via the link).  The predictions have Aligulac at 9-3 while I'm 8-4.
 
(Z)HyuN 3 vs. (Z)Jig 0
 
The Korean was the overwhelming favourite here (91%) and the Canadian Zerg had no wins over a player like HyuN in his background so the result was not surprising.  In game one HyuN went for an early expo, easily held off Jig's aggression and rolled him over with roaches.  Game two was even worse for Jig as a failed roach/ling attack got crushed.  In game three HyuN went for a ling/bane push vs an early expand and rolled Jig.  These games were the most lopsided of the day.

(T)qxc 1 vs. (T)SeleCT 3
 
The American Terran was the overwhelming favourite here (75% even after the match), despite SeleCT having a dominant history against him historically (17-8 prior to the match, albeit all of those are from Wings of Liberty).  qxc has had limited success against low end Korean Terrans in HOTS, but most of that success was in the early stages and prior to this match he was just 2-11 in that scenario.  The games themselves: qxc went for a cloaked banshee vs an early expand from the Korean and it accomplished nothing; from there the game stabilized with qxc going for a ton of aggression which failed to do the damage he needed it too and gave SeleCT an army edge;  the American tapped out when he was unable to break the siege of his third base.  In the second game qxc did fantastic damage with a double-reaper opening and then killed SeleCT's natural with a double drop; he followed that up with a giant drop again in the natural which was almost as bad as the one he tried in the first game but he did a bit more damage (astonishingly he tried it again later in the game, this time in the main, and lost all his units for nothing).  He allowed seleCT to break his contain via bad tank positioning lost him his third and fourth, but the American was able to win by starving SeleCT out.  In the third game once again qxc went hyper aggressive with a marine/hellion drop vs marine banshee--SeleCT did a great job holding it off even when vikings showed up, aided by cloak and mass repair; after taking a massive lead qxc kept losing engagements (amusingly the NASL casters spent the entire game talking about how far ahead he was) and essentially lost the game when he let SeleCT slip his contain (again) and wreck his main while defending his attack.  In the final game the Korean went double reaper which completely failed, but qxc threw away all his units with a variety of failed attacks (hellion drop followed by cloaked banshee) and then failed to see a double drop that flew right over his hellions leaving him very far behind; he then allowed four medivacs into his base and eventually seleCT rolled to the win with a two-pronged attack (getting four more medivacs into the main yet again).  I thought both players were a little sloppy, but qxc was far more error-prone than his opponent.

(Z)Nestea 3 vs. (Z)KingKong 0
 
Like the inexplicably Aligulac numbers above KingKong was the favourite (62% even now) despite no wins over Korean Zergs in HOTS (not even a map win).  In game one KingKong went for a mass speedling attack (ala Slam below) and Nestea not only held, but did damage with his own speedling run-by, with Nestea adding to his advantage with a massive baneling attack and winning with a roach push.  Game two was a simple roach/bane all-in.  Game three both players went for ineffective early pressure with banelings, with Nestea defending a roach/bane all-in to win the series.

(T)TheStC 3 vs. (Z)CatZ 2
 
The odds had theSTC as the favourite (69%) and there was nothing in Catz's recent history to suggest he could take the match.  The first game Catz went for early ling pressure and managed to get the CC cancelled at the natural; his bane/muta did decent damage, but what won Catz the game was taking favourable engagements and then preventing theSTC's from ever getting his third established.  In game two both played standard and Catz took a ton of damage on the first mid-game push (including losing his spawning pool) with theSTC using a mine field outside the third as a staging ground to keep attacking and forcing the end of the game.  In the third game Catz went for cheese and sent a drone-rush to attack the Terran expo and while the CC completed Catz managed to kill some SCV's; he followed it up with a roach/bane all-in that crushed the Korean.  Catz went super greedy in the fourth game aiming for brood lords while theSTC switched from his robotic bio play to go mech; Catz lost two of his four bases (plus all drones at the fourth) from the Terran's first push and he just didn't have enough units or economy afterwards to take advantage of the Korean's lack of anti-air.  The final game Catz went for a roach/bane all-in, but theSTC was ready for it and survived with the help of a 50-plus kill tank (!); he Peruvian could not handle the counter pressure and tapped out.  While the final result isn't a surprise, it's a credit to Catz that he took the series to five games.

(T)Neeb 3 vs. (Z)EnDerr 1
 
Aligulac see's this as a close match even after the fact (54% for Neeb), but EnDerr has no significant wins over Terrans (I don't think Brat_OK in November counts) in HOTS so the American warranted a bigger edge.  In game one EnDerr did a ton of damage with ling run-bys as Neeb initially didn't have his wall complete and then had the depots down repeatedly--the damage was too much for the Terran to recover.  Game two Neeb floated to the gold base and then crushed EnDerr with a marine/tank push.  In game three both players went completely standard with Neeb handling EnDerr's speedling pressure very well and with the Zerg unable to handle his attacks.  The final game also opened very standard, but Neeb's siege of the third base resulted in a massive baneling counter attack that did considerable damage; however, EnDerr lost his third while Neeb kept his bases so came out ahead and was able to hold off EnDerr's final attacks to win.

(Z)Revival 3 vs. (Z)Slam 0
 
The Korean remains an overwhelming favourite over the Chinese player (78%) whose record against Korean Zergs was 1-8 (a win over Shine in October being the exception).  In game one Slam went for a massive speedling attack which Revival defended with roaches and won with the counter attack.  Game two Slam went for early mutas and suffered huge amounts of damage from a roach attack and died to a follow-up roach push.  In game three Revival won with a straightforward ling/baneling attack.
 
(Z)Sen 3 vs. (Z)Check 2
 
The Zerg gets the slight nod over Check (51%), despite the fact that Sen has never beaten a Korean Zerg in HOTS and Check has only lost once to a foreigner in HOTS (Snute back in October, but that was a best-of-one).  Despite my misgivings Aligulac was right as Sen took the match.  The games: Sen went muta while Check went for roaches and was caught off-guard; he held off the initial attack and with better upgrades steamrolled Sen with his first attack.  Game two Check went for a baneling bust that was stopped by roaches and he died in the counter attack.  In the third game both players went muta and Sen could not handle Check's pressure, got behind economically and with the muta count and lost because of it.  Game four was a repeat of the first game as Sen went muta while Check went roach, but the Chinese player handled the roach rush much better this time around and Check's awful spore crawler positioning allowed the mutas to do enough economic damage that Sen could roll over his opponent.  In the final game good micro from Sen nabbed him a queen and a little economic lead as they both went muta; Check was much more cost effective with his own mutas and lings afterwards, but a very late third base allowed Sen to power ahead on the muta count and then snip the spire which ended the game.

(T)Illusion 3 vs. (P)Astrea 2
 
The Terran was given strong odds over Astrea (60%), although they have no history against one another and Illusion was 2-5 against foreign Protoss recently and Astrea 2-0 vs Terran.  I thought there was room for an upset, but the odds held.  The games: Illusion opened with a lot of pressure--hellion, widow mine, and drops--without causing much damage--but he landed critical emps on Astrea's first big attack and did massive damage as the Protoss had no observer with his army allowing his ghosts to run wild and secure the win.  Game two Illusion went for a three-reaper opening, but didn't accomplish much with them; the game went standard (with Astrea providing a nice Artosis-pylon moment) as Illusion continually denied the third base of the Protoss; however, in the reverse of the previous game Illusion got destroyed by storm in his first big attack and Astrea won with the counter attack.  In the third game Illusion went for proxy marauders followed by a one-base all-in that featured constant attacks and on his very last chance (SCV pull #2) he won the game.  Astrea went for an immortal-gateway push which Illusion was able to hold, but Astrea transitioned to a colossus push and got the easy win over the unprepared Terran.  In the final game Astrea was caught out of position on Illusion's first big push and lost two colossus for free and wasn't able to overcome it.
 
(T)Drunkenboi 1 vs. (Z)TooDming 3
 
The Chinese Zerg is an overwhelming favourite (83%) and while he has solid numbers against foreign Terrans (9-6), while Drunkenboi has struggled against foreign Zergs of late (2-5).  Aligulac was correct as the Canadian displayed a lot of sloppy play.  The games: TooDming went muta/ling/bane, but Drunkenboi held off the pressure and won the game with a counter attack.  Game two TooDming went for a baneling bust which ended the game.  In game three Drunkenboi opened with hellion/marauder which did well until mutas came out; the Canadian secured his fourth, but got caught looking away from his army as banelings destroyed it and from that point on he kept losing his fourth and was eventually starved out.  In the final game both players went super greedy with Drunkenboi making the first push with hellion/marine which only wound up killing lings (once again losing a big part of his army to banelings by getting distracted multi-tasking); Drunkenboi was able to kill multiple bases during the late game, but could not handle the Zerg army and got crushed when he could no longer avoid it.
 
(P)Tassadar 2 vs. (Z)XiGua 3
 
Odds are a virtually split here (XiGua gets the slightest of nods at slightly over 50%), despite the fact the Chinese player no significant wins over Korean Protoss' and is 0-6 in his most recent matches against them.  Tassadar has lost to European foreign Zergs, but I didn't see XiGua winning this one.  The games: XiGua went for a roach/ling rush and killed Tassadar's third (the gold) and then crushed the Protoss' follow-up gateway push.  In game two Tassadar went for a cannon rush that cancelled XiGua's natural; he transition into DT's which killed the second base and XiGua tapped out when the first gateway/archon push arrived.  The Protoss went DT again in the third game which did damage enough damage for XiGua to gg out when the stalker-heavy gateway push arrived.  XiGua went roach/hydra and after throwing away a ton of units and losing his third one good engagement put him in a winning position (Tassadar building phoenix for no particular reason).  In the final game XiGua went three-hatch before pool as Tassadar went for a colossus/immortal push that took out the third, but lost all his colossus in the process and tapped out shortly afterwards.
 
(P)Crank 3 vs. (Z)PiG 2
 
CranK is the favourite (63%), but that seemed kind as PiG was only 2-11 versus Korean Protoss players.  The power of swarm hosts made this a very dicey match-up.  The games: PiG went for the gold as his second base which CranK cannon rushed and took it out; the Korean transitioned into phoenix/colossus (doing good damage with the phoenix's) while the Australian went swarm host and eventually CranK responded with carriers (!) and after that failed mass void ray (against a pile of infestors) and paid the price.  Game two the Korean went phoenix again and PiG went swarm host, snipping CranK's third with roaches as he did so (somehow CranK forgot thermal lance on his first push); he defended the first Zerg push and was able to kill off the swarm hosts in the second engagement, but lost his colossus to burrowed roaches and died to PiG's second army.  In the third game CranK won with a simple zealot/phoenix push that the Australian wasn't ready for.  Game four the Protoss went for a zealot push which killed the third and was followed by warp prism pressure; there was a near base-trade scenario where PiG lost his fourth and CranK his third which the Aussie followed up with a muta switch that initiated an actual base trade tha the Protoss won.  In the final game the Korean went super greedy getting a quick third base and got away with it, goingtriple stargate as PiG went swarm hosts; CranK pushed at the right time before PiG's supply and static defense had reached critical mass and won out.
 
(Z)Suppy 2 vs. (T)MaSa 3
 
Despite Suppy having beaten MaSa in both their previous meetings, he's only a slight favourite (just over 50%).  Suppy is also 7-1 in his last matches against foreign Terrans, albeit MaSa is 10-3 against
foreign Zergs (his most impressive was a win over Kane).  I should have followed my instincts here.  The games: MaSa went proxy two-racks while Suppy went for quick speed followed by a baneling bust and the latter won easily.  Game two MaSa did the exact same thing, this time killing the second and walling off the main, but Suppy broke out of via banelings and once again the American won with a bust.  The third game the Terran finally played standard and MaSa killed the third with a hellion/marine push (aided by Suppy continually rallying his overlords into the army); the constant pressure simply rolled over his opponent.  Game four MaSa returned to cheese going for a double bunker rush, but this time had a baneling-proof wall in his natural and transitioned into double starport whose banshee's killed the natural as Suppy went for mutas; the Zerg could not produce enough and fell to the Terran's constant pressure.  In the final game Suppy went for a baneling bust while MaSa went blue flame hellion (mech) and held off the initial push and in conjunction with a banshee did the critical damage necessary to win the game.
 
The groups for Premier are out and here's a quick look:
 
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)