StarCraft News & Notes

WCS Shanghai turned out to be something of a rollercoaster: the one truly surprising player to make it through the R16 (Sioras) was promptly booted for ethical violations; Nerchio choked (again!) in a tournament where he was favoured; Scarlett continued to struggle to find her old form (choked to use her own word); Has, whose surprise participation in the R8 was punctuated by him blowing a 2-0 lead against Harstem; and puCK had his best tournament run since his 4th place at WEC back in 2014.  In the end we finished with an actual Year of Harstem moment as the Dutch player won the biggest tournament of his career, beating Snute 4-1 to take home $16,000 (something the Norwegian has taken pretty hard).  This is a fantastic result both for the player and the system, as Harstem is the second surprise winner of a Circuit event--it's a good thing both in terms of motivating players who haven't traditionally been top foreigners and it's also an indication that the competitive health of the scene is good (we aren't just seeing the same winners over and over again).  As for predictions, Aligulac and I had three of the four semi-finalists picked correctly (puCK was the surprise entrant, while Nerchio was the surprise absentee), and I had Snute in the finals.  Overall predictions were 9-6 a piece (60%), which is a bit low on both sides.  However much I like picking correctly, the low stats are also a good sign that competitive play is in a good place.

As for viewership, the GPL aired at a terrible time for those outside the region to watch, but while it's non-Chinese numbers was accordingly low (3.5k the first three days, then almost 5k and a little over 5k), the numbers in China were around 250k (digging into that thread it could be somewhat less, but it's a reasonable ballpark--which is excellent given that no Chinese player was in the top-four).  This makes the event a success for its primary audience.

I continue to be curious about how the new WCS system is impacting the foreign scene and thought I'd take a look at where we are (keeping in mind this is all very short-term).  One potential sign of health are how many smaller events  are being run (usually community organised events, or "minor tournaments" as TL designates them).  Here's the numbers (via TL) throughout HOTS and into early LOTV:

It's early to draw conclusions, but the indicator is going the right way.  What about larger tournaments?  TL is very wonky about how it differentiates "major" and "premier" tournaments, so in lieu of three graphs let's combine the numbers:

There are a lot of externalities at play here (the EU/AM WCS divisions along with the separate season finals in 2013, etc) and it's difficult to make conclusions from the above.  To me what it does indicate is that the relationship between the health of the game and the number of major tournaments is only partially linked, as there were more big tournaments in 2014 than in any other year and that's the worst year for viewership of the game.

Given that the above doesn't yet indicate much, what about earnings--are we seeing a difference in money being made in the foreign scene?  The easiest way is to compare January-March (and who doesn't want yet another nifty graph); we'll keep the prize distribution to the larger events since those were the most likely to go to parachuting Koreans in the past (these are purely foreign events, so don't include any held in Korea):

Here we see the most obvious impact of the new system--even with the restrictions imposed in 2015 non-Korean earnings were dropping (both in volume and percentage: the raw numbers: 2013 (86,289 of 259,405), 2014 (72,444 of 259,716), 2015 (25,401 of 178,858), and 2016 (224,229 of 310,429).  It's now possible for a foreign pro outside the top three or four players to make a living by playing SC2, something that was impossible in HOTS.

I've been posting viewership numbers for SC2 streams since no one else is doing it (numbers are all via Fuzic).  Streams in green have seen a significant increase, those in red a decrease, and those in blue didn't appear on my last list.  The period covered are weeks 10-12 with a minimum of 10 hours a week (including a few judgement calls and excluding known viewbotters [I've also added in a couple of streamers I missed when I initially posted this]):

1. NaNiwa 821
2. Nathanias 770
3. TLO 565
4. Hui 533
5. iNcontroL 455
6. Lowko 434
7. Avilo 392
8. Dragon 331
9. ForGG 316
10. HTOMario 273
11. MCanning 228
12. PiG 218
13. ViBE 209
14. Twilight Council 197
15. Yogo 194
16. Neuro 185
17. TOP 178
18. FireCake 176
19. TRUE 171
20. Indy 166
21. ProTech 163
22. StarDust 156

There's a lot of nuance in the above numbers--Nathanias is actually on the rise overall, his numbers recovering from when he was away casting; Rotterdam would be near the top of this list, but missed a week because of WCS Shanghai; Dragon has been in free fall since getting his sponsorship (he's lost about 40% of his audience); Avilo has been especially whiny lately and that always hurts his numbers; I'm not sure what's happening to Neuro but after a long period of forward momentum he's slipped back; another notable who doesn't appear here is CranK (whose numbers are slipping badly).  More generally, Destiny would lead this list (followed by Polt) if he'd streamed SC2 during this period; streamers like Happy, Artosis, MoMan, and others have good numbers, but just haven't streamed enough to make the list.

MaximusBlack has largely switched over to poker and other games, which is pretty funny from a guy who was lecturing the community about support in February.  This isn't a complete break from SC2 like when he switched to League of Legends, but since mid-February he's only played twice.  It's a sad place for him given his rhetoric prior to LOTV's launch; while I've personally never cared for his stream I would prefer he remained in the scene full-time.

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This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Shanghai Predictions Continued

Before I get into further predictions for WCS Shanghai (continued from here), I'll just briefly comment on the TL "preview" that dropped on Friday--it's not predictive, but a strange mix of profiles and the writers' expectations for what a good tournament would be from each player.  It doesn't function well in the former sense while the latter is posed without much justification, such that I'm not sure what I'm supposed to get out of it.  [I've updated the following given the results of the R16; Aligulac and I finished 5-3 in predictions.]

Back to predictions: assuming the results posted previously and following the usual breakdown after group stages, here's how the match-ups line up:

PtitDrogo (A1) vs TooDming (B2) - the DreamHack champion is heavily favoured (81%) and won their only encounter back in HOTS; despite the French player's struggles since the patch, his opponent has an unimpressive ZvP track record against decent foreigners, so I'll stick with the odds; Aligulac has Harstem here instead of the French player and the odds are a little closer (68%), with the Chinese player having won their only ever meeting (in HOTS)

Snute (D1) vs Elazer (C2) - the Norwegian is favoured (60%), although he's 3-5 against his Polish opponent in LOTV (1-4 recently); that said, when it really counts there's a much better track record for Snute so I'll stick with the odds; Aligulac has MarineLorD here instead of the Norwegian and he's more heavily favoured (69%), despite losing their only match in LOTV. [This has become Nerchio vs Snute, whose odds are below, favouring the Polish player]

Jieshi (B1) vs Harstem (A2) - not surprisingly the Dutch player is favoured (62%), and while his opponent has a better PvP record it's largely against weaker players--there's not enough in the Chinese player's match history to suggest he'll win out against the veteran European; Aligulac's match is Has vs PtitDrogo and gives the French player the edge (63%). [This is the Dutch player vs Sioras, and not surprisingly the former is favoured 86%]

Nerchio (C1) vs MarineLorD (D2) - the Polish player gets the smallest of edges (50%), despite a fairly dominant LOTV record against his opponent (5-2)--there's always the potential of this match going either way, but the numbers point to Nerchio; Aligulac has Snute here instead of the French Terran and heavily favours (65%) the Polish player (despite the two being 3-3 in their most recent matches). [This is Scarlett vs puCK with the Canadian favoured (59%); I thought she was lucky to beat Elazer, but historically is a much better player]

I have PtitDrogo, Snute, Harstem, and Nerchio moving forward; Aligulac has MarineLorD  advancing rather than Snute.  Following the above: [With the changes above my predictions stand except we have Scarlett instead of Snute]

PtitDrogo vs Snute - the Norwegian is favoured (57%), having won their only meeting in LOTV (pre-patch); if you ignore some weird ZvP results for Snute in the TING tournament he's 7-1 and I think will comfortably win here; Aligulac has this as Harstem vs MarineLorD and the Terran is heavily favoured (77%). [This would be against Nerchio and the Polish player is favoured (62%) despite a losing record against the French player--all pre-patch, however]

Harstem vs Nerchio - understandably the Polish player is a massive favourite (77%), although his Dutch opponent has won two of their last three meetings (Nerchio has gone 18-0 since the last loss though, so I'll stick with the odds); Aligulac has PtitDrogo here instead, but the Polish player is still favoured (62%). [This would be Harstem vs Scarlett with the Canadian having the edge (55%)]

I have Snute and Nerchio in the finals, whereas Aligulac puts MarineLord vs Nerchio.  The odds of the former match are above and given the Polish players long history of choking in big tournaments I'd go the other way if that's the match-up we get.  Conversely, if it's as I've predicted, the odds are also above and again I'll go with the upset as I think when it matters Snute is much more likely to deliver. [Instead our final would be Nerchio vs Scarlett where again the Polish player is a massive favourite (87%)]

Aligulac crowns Nerchio as the champion, whereas I have Snute. [My victor stays the same.]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Shanghai Predictions

It's prediction time.  There are no Koreans in the field (not even nominally, as KingKong, flown out to play in the open bracket after losing the SEA slot due to passport restrictions, lost), so it's wide open for a foreigner to take.  Incidentally, both Scarlett and puCK were in the King of the North tournament over the weekend, so may be a little jetlagged for this tournament.

Group A
iAsonu vs Harstem - Aligulac makes this a virtual tie, with the Dutch player getting the slightest of edges (50%); they are 2-2 against one another, but Harstem won the most recent series (in HOTs however); the Protoss player hasn't played a PvZ in nearly a month and was struggling the couple of weeks before that (2-4), but his overall record since the patch is 7-4; the Chinese player hasn't lost a ZvP in LOTV, granting that other than Lilbow (and maybe State) none of his opponents have been particularly intimidating; so do we go with the more known player with better pedigree, or the undefeated player on his home turf?  I like the "upset" here
Coffee vs PtitDrogo - the French player is a massive favourite (84%); it's no secret that Drogo has been struggling since the patch (winless vs Terrans with a 2-8 map score)--he struggled with Terrans even before the patch, so this is not his best match-up; however, his Chinese opponent's track record against Protoss is also bad (4-4, but without a notable win), so I'll stick with the favourite here
Following the above predictions:
Harstem vs Coffee - once again Aligulac massively favours (81%) the Protoss player and while he's had some of the same struggles PtitDrogo has in the match-up, he's fared better (4-3), so I'll stick with the odds here; if Aligulac is right and this is iAsonu, he's even more favoured (85%)
iAsonu vs PtitDrogo - the French player is favoured (66%); he hasn't played a lot of PvZ since the patch, but hasn't shown the same level of weakness as vs Terran (3-1, losing to Lambo); the Chinese player's stats in the match-up are strong, but are inflated by weaker players so I'll stick with the odds here; if this is as-per Aligulac, then it's a PvP with PtitDrogo vs Harstem ; once again the French player is favoured (53%)
iAsonu vs Harstem - this leads us to a re-match from the group round and statistically the loser wins the re-match if their skill level is fairly close--I believe that's the case here and I'll take the Dutch Protoss to win

Both Aligulac and I have Harstem and PtitDrogo advancing (albeit by different routes).

Group B
Jieshi vs Sioras - the battle of two obscure players; the Chinese Protoss is favoured and after early struggles in the match-up has done well in PvZ over the last month or so (4-1); the Mongolian player has barely played ZvP (4-2 in LOTV), and while neither player has particularly impressive wins, Jieshi's are better in my opinion (beating JimRising and Rex; the best Sioras win was over Probe), so I'll stick with the odds
Has vs TooDming - this should be a very entertaining match-up; the cheesy Taiwanese player is favoured (56%), although the two haven't faced each other in LOTV; Has hasn't played many PvZ's since the patch (1-1), while TooDming's record (5-2) is inflated by inferior players (against the best, Cyan, he's 1-2); I think when players properly prepare for Has he loses, but I've been surprised before; I don't have a strong feeling on this so I'll reluctantly stick with the odds
Following the above predictions:
Sioras vs TooDming - the Chinese player is favoured (58%), with the historical edge over his opponent (2-0, granting those matches were in HOTS); this is the Mongolian's best match-up and he has a recent win over Petraeus under his belt, while TooDming has stuggled in ZvZ, losing to all the better Chinese players he's faced (XiGua, iAsonu, and Clannad); on paper you'd take the veteran here and while I'd love for Sioras to get a win, he just doesn't have the track record yet for me to count on it
Has vs Jieshi - probably the shortest match we'll see; once again Has is slightly favoured (52%), but his opponent has a strong edge head-to-head (3-1, having won both their LOTV contests); while the Chinese player isn't perfect in PvP, he has his opponents number and fairly impressive results in the match-up, so I'll take the "upset
Has vs TooDming - I think the bag of tricks for Has will be exhausted at this point and we'll see the re-match go to the previous loser; if Aligulac is right than Jieshi is here and he's a huge underdog  (34%)

Aligulac and I both have TooDming advancing, but it has Has as the other player while I have Jieshi.

Group C
Scarlett vs XiGua - two players whose best results are years behind them, the Canadian Zerg is favoured (69%); she's only lost 1 of her last 12 ZvZ's (losing to Snute), albeit nearly all of those wins are against lesser Zerg players; her Chinese opponent has a very good ZvZ record as well (except against Silky); it's really difficult to compare their records due to regional limitations, so in the absence of strong evidence either way I'll stick with the odds
Elazer vs Nerchio - not surprisingly the latter is favoured (69%), with a 10-2 record against his opponent; I see no reason for this not to follow the odds
Assuming the above:
Scarlett vs Nerchio - the Polish player is massively favoured (78%) and there's nothing in the Canadian's recent past to suggest any other outcome (although if this was 2013 I'd certainly go the other way)
XiGua vs Elazer - again the Polish player is massively favoured (78%) and his record is far more impressive than his Chinese opponents, so I see no reason to argue
Scarlett vs Elazer - the odds are lopsided again (61%) and seem just as justified

Aligulac and I have Nerchio and Elazer advancing; their opponents are certainly talented enough to upset them, but there's nothing in their recent histories to suggest it will happen here.

Group D
puCK vs Snute - the Norwegian is heavily favoured (71%), despite having lost their only meeting back in October; Snute has had occasional struggles in ZvP, but on the whole has an excellent record post-patch (13-4); puCK doesn't often play against Europeans, but has a solid post-patch record (7-2); there's nothing that sticks out in either's history to suggest an upset here, although it remains a possibility
MajOr vs MarineLorD - the French player is favoured (56%), despite never having beaten his opponent (0-2; granting that those games were a long time ago in HOTS); MarineLorD is 14-3 in the match-up and while the Mexican player even more impressive (24-4), there's a big difference in the caliber of the competition and I'll stick with the favourite here
Assuming the above:
puCK vs MajOr - the Terran is favoured (57%) with a 4-1 match record against the American in the recent past (puCK's one win was pre-patch in a SEA Masters Cup); the underdog just hasn't beaten a Terran outside the NA scene in a long time and MajOr hasn't lost a TvP since the patch, so take the odds
Snute vs MarineLorD - a battle of foreign titans, the French Terran is favoured (60%), despite a poor track record against his opponent (he hasn't beaten him in over a year); MarineLorD has been pretty vulnerable in TvZ of late (7-4), while Snute has barely lost (9-1), so I like the upset here
MajOr vs MarineLorD - a rematch and while normally the loser wins on these occasions, I still like the French player here (I can't remember the last time MajOr truly performed at a non-Latin American event in-person); if this is as per-Aligulac, then Snute is slightly favoured (52%)

Both Aligulac and I have Snute and MarineLorD advancing, although (again) by different routes.

I'll pressed for time today, so I'll post predictions following the R16 at a later date (probably tomorrow).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

It has been relatively quiet on the SC2 landscape the past week or so.  We've had the Nova Covert Ops mission announced as dropping March 29th, along with some aesthetic changes made for tournament winners.  StarDust has also returned, but no one seems to know what his plans are--attempt to compete in Korea for their second seasons?  Given that he was struggling with mid-tier Terran GMs in HOTS (WArchief), it's difficult to see how much success he could have there.  From what I can tell his stream is on the Korean ladder and his chat is Korean-only, so I'm assuming he's looking for success at home.

WCS Shanghai begins on Saturday (March 21st) and there are a few bits of information to cover: Mongolian player Sioras replaces KingKong from the SEA qualifier (due to the Korean's passport issues; the latter's team is sending him to compete in the open bracket); there were also four invited players--iAsonu and XiGua make a lot of sense (Chinese players in a Chinese tournament), but I don't know what the rationale was for inviting PtitDrogo or MarineLorD (I don't have a problem with them going, but I didn't see any reasoning offered why it was those two and not other players).  There are four spots remaining from the open bracket, but as it stands it's going to be a very Terran-light tournament (2 only thus far, with 4 Protoss and 6 Zerg).

Cheesadelphia 2

N3rd Street Gamers ran the Philadelphia LAN and it was fun to watch, albeit they decided to torture viewers with shitty Internet (me) and never turned on quality options for the stream.  Kelazhur beat HuK to win the tourney (and $1,000).  The most surprising result was Epic landing in the money and beating JonSnow (among others).  Five of the six top spots were held by Terrans (and six of eight).

TL has stopped posting WCS predictions, but they still post them about the GSL and I was curious how their prognostication is going this year:
Group A: 1-1 (Rogue instead of Taeja)
Group B: 2-0
Group C: 1-1 (Soulkey instead of Bunny)
Group D: 1-1 (Stork instead of Cure)
Group E: 1-1 (DeParture over Trap)
Group F: 1-1 (Classic over SpeeD)
Group G: 1-1 (aLive over Losira)
Group H: 2-0
These are decent numbers (10-6 or 62%), but below how TL was performing last year (averaging 12-4 in the R32).  It will be interesting to see how the R16 goes, but I remain puzzled at their disinclination to use (or at least cite) Aligulac.

The Meisterschaft (EPS) tourney has returned and unlike in 2015 I'm happy to see they aren't having problems filling their brackets (the return of players like HaNfy and DarkHydra help).  Through the first two cups it seems like ShoWTimE and HeRoMaRinE are tops in the field and certainly the former is no surprise in that respect.  ESL has had an English broadcast for this and I like that addition.

Destiny talked about missed opportunities for SC2 streamers in monetization (saying he makes 10k from just t-shirts and Amazon).  It's a pretty stark comparison to see how he runs his stream versus most other SC2 streamers.

G2A is one of the more visible sponsors in SC2 and Indie Game Stand writes about the problem it (and similar companies) create through the reselling of game keys:

The problem with these sites like G2A, Fast2Play, Pingwin, etc. is that they have created an ecosystem for hackers, scammers, identity thefts and other internet assholes to steal from indie developers and other small websites. They’re basically helping people launder money. There are plenty of great articles here already covering the topic of reselling keys.

The bigger problem killing the little guys is when scammers use stolen credit cards to purchase games from online retailers to resell Steam keys. Here’s how the scam works:  You get a bunch of stolen credit card numbers and then go to a legit Steam key reseller site and use the stolen info to buy the digital codes.  You grab as many codes as you can and then go over to one of these gray market resellers and turn your keys into real money since you bought them with stolen cards.  Meanwhile, the website and/or developer that you purchased the key from gets a credit card chargeback or other dispute 30-60 days later.

It should be noted that whatever you think of PayPal, I have found their security much better than other providers.  Amazon has improved with their new system but Stripe is awful and actually charges you an additional $15 for any kind of dispute.  It’s a hard balance on a digital marketplace.

This all seems very off-the-cuff, but it's interesting to see someone on the front lines dealing with these particular pitfalls.

Fortune and ESPN both published pieces about women in gaming that included statistics for viewership and between them it's estimated between 34%-44% (the median is 39%) of the audience is female, which compares favorably to traditional sports.  This is pretty interesting given pieces like this from a couple of years ago (or recent statements by Lam Hua).  The latter perception is given ammunition when idiots like those at Natus Vincere say incredibly stupid things.

This article is written by Peter levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

IEM Katowice was a fun tournament, albeit with a slightly disappointing ending (how great would it have been for Snute to win after making his way through such a difficult bracket?).  Snute shared the struggles of the other Zergs who faced Polt beforehand (I hadn't posted odds of a Polt/Snute match in my previous posts, but I ran it before it happened and Aligulac favoured the Korean (71%)).  Oddly, neither player had to face a Protoss opponent on their march to the final (with Polt enjoying a much easier route).  Overall the games were very entertaining, including some painful moments, such as watching Dayshi choke away the first game in his series against Polt, and MarineLorD throw away the final game against viOLet (parasitic bombed).  It was interesting to see both Hydra and viOLet knocked out in ZvZs against the same foreigner (Snute), mirroring what happened at DreamHack (via Bly).

In terms of predictions, I finished 22-9, with Aligulac at 20-11.  The biggest upsets (via the odds) were Serral losing to FireCake, Bunny losing to Has, MarineLord losing to viOLet, and Lilbow falling to Sortof (all but one were R32 matches).

How about viewership?  Compared to both the most recent IEM (Gamescom in August) and the last IEM Katowice in 2015:

Clearly no one cared about IEM GamesCom (INnoVation beat soO in the final); as for Katowice, the 2015 version was shorter (which I think helps), but we see a bit of a bump this year (Snute being in the final helped a lot).  It's an overall improvement (particularly given how early in the morning it started for NA/SA fans).  How did it compare to DreamHack Leipzig?

Not a huge increase, but an increase nonetheless--little baby steps in the right direction.  It's worth noting the final numbers are slightly below WCS season one finals (which averaged 52k), but that was a completely different system.

A bit of a side note: it was funny seeing ReDeYe back covering WCS for ESL after admitting how much he disliked the current system on The Late Game a month ago.  His career has taken a strange path over the past year--leaving Gfinity in February after less than a year (he left ESL in March)--from his comments, it seems he needed months away from hosting before realising hosting is what he wanted to do.

In WCS Shanghai news KingKong was disqualified due to the same passport restriction that prevented Polt and viOLet from participating in the NA qualifier.  It's clear the error rests on the admins (eg NXZ and Pengwin), the player, and his team.  While I feel for KingKong, the rules were written on the Challonge site (not exactly hard to find), and MaSa went through the same thing back in January (he subsequently got an exception).  The change doesn't mean he can't qualify, he simply has to do so via the open bracket.

MaNa gave an interview in anticipation of WCS Winter and said the following:

I think this is the first time when making it to BlizzCon is actually very realistic. I always wanted to visit BlizzCon and I did in 2015 but just as a guest. In 2016, making it as a player would fulfill yet another of my esport dreams.

For all the whinging you see about the current system (which isn't perfect, but a definite improvement), this is one of the major goals WCS should have always had: give players in all regions a realistic chance to compete at BlizzCon.  MaNa is a realist and won't expect to beat the Kespa Koreans, but to have that moment where he can give it his all and hope for a run is powerfully motivating.

Incidentally, in the "unofficial" episode of Unfiltered last week the above sentiment was echoed and it was implied that the increased regional restrictions were a result of community feedback rather than Blizzard's original plan.  The implication is that the majority wanted a full passport lock.

Blizzard should be thanking Nathanias for how much he has pushed co-op mode on his stream--opening every session with a game or two of it.  I have to believe he's responsible for getting more people interested in playing the mode.

This is just an observation about how difficult it is to judge balance by what pros (or streamers) will tell you: watch a Terran stream and PvT is incredibly Protoss favoured; watch a Protoss stream and TvP is incredibly Terran favoured; etc.  It has to make Blizzard incredibly reluctant to listen to individuals about balance and favour statistical data--understandably preferring Korean data.

Polt's personal sponsorship from Coolermaster has ended, which isn't particularly surprising, but the reasoning could be interesting.  The most obvious conclusion would be that CM wants to be done with SC2, but I wonder if they've guessed that Koreans will be passport blocked next year (with Polt disappearing into the GSL meat grinder).  SC2 is no more "dead" than it was in HOTS and so long as Polt was winning he's still fronting their brand in a positive light (it's clear from Polt's comments at IEM that the change wasn't his choice), so you'd think they could have kept up their support.  It will be interesting to see who he picks up as a sponsor.

Given that no one else seems to do it anymore, I thought I'd include the top streamers since my previous post about it.  Numbers are all via Fuzic; streamers in green have seen a significant increase, those in red a significant decrease (50+); those in blue were not on the last list.  The period covered are weeks 7-9, with the usual minimum 10 hours streamed (excluding known viewbotters and with a few noted judgement calls--keep in mind IEM interfered with a lot of top streamers, and I've noted them in brackets below)):
1. Destiny 2.6k
(Nathanias 1.1k)
2. NaNiwa 1.1k
3. Hui 642
4. Avilo 449
5. Lowko 425

6. ForGG 418

7. Dragon 393

8. Catz 304

9. Neuro 282

10. MCanning 269

11. HTOMario 246 (short on hours in week 7)

12. MorroW 221

13. CranK 220

14. Protech 218
(Bly 210*)
(PiG 191)
15. ViBE 161
16. RuFF 156
17. TOP 121 (short on hours week 7)
(JimRising 117 - didn't stream week 7)
18. Temp0 110
(desRow 107 - didn't stream week 9)
19. mOOnGLaDe 105
* in week eight Bly's streaming numbers were split between "acerbly" and "bly", so I've combined them here
Top-streamers from the last list who are missing: MaximusBlack barely streamed, but when he did his decline continued; the story is the same for MC; Fenner's numbers are normal, but he hasn't streamed enough to be included, which is the same story for all the others who don't appear here. Destiny would have been at the top of the other list if he'd streamed more SC2 earlier in the year--he is the undisputed king of streamers for the game.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Predictions: Updated

It was a fun round of 32 and here's a quick look along with updated predictions (where needed).  Much like DreamHack earlier in the year, the gaps between series were much too long, but otherwise the production was excellent.  As for predictions, as great as it is to be right, I do love upsets and I was happy that not everything fell into place as expected.  Overall Aligulac was 8-8 and I was 9-7.  A few notes: Dayshi steamrolled PtitDrogo (whose struggles post-patch continue), FireCake wrecked Serral (iNcontroL's one upset coming to fruition), Bunny wasn't able to handle Has, Nerchio-ShoWTimE was as good as expected (I thought Valdes made a good point that Protoss player would have benefited from adding some disruptors into his army), and TLO killed himself through risky strategies (games 2-3).  Looking forward to the R16, you can see previous notes etc from my original post here:

Polt vs Dayshi - as expected the Korean is a heavy favourite (86%); the last time the French Terran beat a Korean was sOs in a showmatch in 2014 and there's really nothing in his match history to suggest an upset here--I'll stick with Polt

FireCake vs Has - the French player is favoured (75%); the Taiwanese Protoss has never gone beyond the R16 in a WCS event and I don't see that changing here

MaNa vs HuK - this is the match I expected and my views haven't changed (taking MaNa)

Nerchio vs SortOf - the Polish player is an overwhelming favourite (86%), and is much better in ZvZ, so I'll stick with him here

MarineLorD vs viOLet - the expected match; I want the French Terran to win here, but I'll stick to my initial prediction with the Zerg player

MaSa vs Snute - Aligulac only gives the Norwegian a slight edge (52%), but given the pedigree the outcome seems pretty straight forward to me

Hydra vs Neeb - this went as expected and I haven't changed my pick from the Korean

Elazer vs iAsonu - the Polish player is heavily favoured (74%) and I take the odds

The only changes going forward from my original post would be FireCake facing Polt in the R8, with Aligulac giving the Korean a huge edge (78%), with a 7-0 lifetime record against the French Zerg and I see no reason to argue (I covered Elazer vs Hydra in my original post).

[Late add: I never did run the numbers for a possible HuK vs Nerchio match, but Aligulac gives it to the Polish player (71%).]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)