Monday 31 March 2014

WCS Europe: Looking back at the Round of 16 and Predictions for the Round of 8

The round of 16 has wrapped up (I didn't like having each day of games back-to-back-to-back, although I suspect the schedule was dictated by ESL having to handle WCS America as well), so it's time to look back at predictions and make some for the round of 8.  Aligulac continues to be at its most accurate predicting the European scene, finishing 7-1 (missing only VortiX--incorrectly picking Mvp instead; including the round of 32 Aligulac is an absurd 19-5 in Europe); I was slightly worse (6-2), making the same error, but also picking Dayshi over Snute.  The results leave us with 4 Protoss, 2 Terrans, and 2 Zergs (consisting of 5 Koreans and 3 foreigners).  Unfortunately, the round of 8 consists of two mirror match-ups (PvP) and two TvZ's (I would have preferred a more diverse set of matches).  Here are the pairings:
 
Picon small.png StarDust
Picon small.png MC
 
Aligulac has StarDust as the heavy favourite (70%) and MC does not have a good track record in offline BO5 (2-5) in HOTS and he's lost his last four in a row...but those have been to herO, San, PartinG, and Dear--top players.  StarDust is 3-2 in the same circumstance having lost to San and the now retired duckdeokStarDust has a much better track record in PvP (even against Koreans) so I agree with Aligulac here.
 
Zicon small.png VortiX
Ticon small.png jjakji
 
Aligulac gives VortiX a slight edge (52%) and there are good reasons to agree with those odds--jjakji has had his share of struggles against foreign Zergs (he's lost his only two BO5 against them in HOTS), including losing to VortiX (online) this past week in Vasacast.  While the series could easily go the other way, I'll go with the odds.
 
Zicon small.png Snute
Ticon small.png MMA
 
Aligulac see's MMA taking the series (65%) and he's only lost one BO5 to a foreigner in HOTS (VortiX); Snute, conversely, only has one win offline in a BO5 against a Korean Terran (Sting, who isn't in the same league); Snute did echo VortiX's style in his win over jjakji and MMA plays similar to jjakji, so there's room for an upset here, but I'll go with MMA.
 
Picon small.png San
Picon small.png Welmu
 
Aligulac has San as the overwhelming favourite (71%) and he eats foreign Protoss for breakfast (his only loss in similar circumstances is against NaNiwa), so while Welmu beat Alicia in a BO5 recently (January), I see no reason not to go with the odds here.
 
Both Aligulac and I see StarDust, VortiX, MMA, and San moving forward.  There's room for upsets, but this would make for a good mix going forward.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Saturday 29 March 2014

WCS Europe Round of 16 Results (Group D)

A good day of games as predictions stood strong.  The VODs are here and what follows is my look at the games themselves:
 
Picon small.png MC 2 Zicon small.png Nerchio 1
 
The expected result, albeit not a walkover.  Game one MC opened with oracles which killed off a couple of queens and a few drones as he began to build void rays; MC anticipated hydras, but Nerchio went for mutas which forced MC to recall his army as he moved out; despite the game going on for quite some time with MC building phoenix, Nerchio went for a muta/corruptor force that he added infestors too and a good fungal ended the game.  In game two MC went for a forge fast expand into phoenix and a fast third; Nerchio went for a quick roach/hydra push, but chose not to attack; MC went up to colossus as Nerchio added vipers; MC got feedbacks on the vipers (Nerchio only built two initially) and chased his army back to Nerchio's base, killing the fourth, but losing most of his army to the re-max; MC held the counter attack with just blink stalkers as Nerchio went for unupgraded ultralisks; Nerchio's next push was easily deflected; MC attacked and despite losing his colossus was able to take a supply lead with blink stalkers (benefiting from his better upgrades) and shortly afterwards the game.  In the final game MC went for a gateway opening with pressure on Nerchio's third, buying time to add immortals and the all-in crushed Nerchio.
 
Picon small.png San 2 Picon small.png BlinG 1
 
A closer than expected result, but still following predictions.  Game one San opened with stalker pressure and BlinG took a ton of damage as he'd gone for an early stargate and simply died.  Game two San went for an early expansion as BlinG went for a dark shrine, but San scouted it out; BlinG went for an immortal drop, which San responded to in kind--BlinG killed off some probes while San killed the mothership core with a feedback (he didn't do much with his immortals); BlinG went for a colossus-based composition, while San went zealot/archon; San killed the third while harassing the main as he built tempests; BlinG chased down San's army while harassing San's main; San held on but chased after BlinG's army and got crushed and had to tap out (this was the best game of the series).  In the final game BlinG went for a proxy DTs while San went for blink; San figured out the DTs and took no real damage from it; San killed off the dark shrine and twilight council putting him very far behind; San went into colossus while BlinG went heavy into immortals; San's attack was initially held, but furthered his advantage and BlinG was forced to tap out shortly afterwards.
 
Picon small.png San 2 Picon small.png MC 0
 
A little more one-sided than many expected.  Game one San went for an oracle, transitioning into a robo as MC went for blink and then robo; MC went for a late two-base all-in with both players having similar army composition--MC attacked up a ramp and got crushed.  Game two San went for DTs with a blink follow-up while MC went for blink; San actually made no DTs despite the dark shrine, but the building made MC paranoid and he built a later natural; MC pressured with stalkers without actually attacking and then San did the same except actually attacked a bit (not doing any serious damage); each player went up to three bases as they both went up to colossus and archons; San maxed out and attacked with +3 and rolled over MC.
 
Zicon small.png Nerchio 2 Picon small.png BlinG 0
 
Despite the one-sided score the games were competitive and the British player was one decision away in each match from doing very well.  Game one BlinG went up to a quick three bases while Nerchio went for a proxy spire; Nerchio pushed with roaches and BlinG (unaware of the mutas) followed and lost a ton of units and tapped out moments later.  BlinG went for an oracle into a third and then up to three stargates and heavy void ray play; Nerchio scouted the strategy and queen/hydra/infestor; BlinG snipped the natural with voids and recall, but Nerchio attacked before BlinG had his AOE (he was headed towards colossus) and got his army fungaled and died immediately.
 
Picon small.png MC 2 Zicon small.png Nerchio 0
 
After Nerchio's initial win in their first series MC went 4-0 against him, which suggests the only loss for the Boss Toss was a matter of luck for the Polish player.  Game one MC went for the now old school zealot/stalker/mothership core harass which was easily pushed away by queens; MC added +1 with a late robo, making a sentry push that almost killed the roach warren, but he was forced to recall out; MC transitioned to colossus but before they were out was caught out on the map and forced to recall again; Nerchio built corrupters as MC cut colossus production at two; MC used Nerchio's third to zone out the Zerg army and despite losing his colossus crushed Nerchio's initial force along with his follow-up, forcing the Polish player to tap out.  Game two MC went for a two-base four-gate that Nerchio scouted out and tried to hold off with queens and slow lings which didn't work.
 
San and MC moved on.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Europe Round of 16 Results (Group C)

The first of two heavily Protoss groups, the results followed predictions precisely as the games themselves were decent, but not great (I noted the best below).  You can watch the VODs via the link and here's my look at the various matches:
 
Picon small.png BabyKnight 2 Picon small.png Welmu 0
 
This was a very short series running against predictions as Welmu went for DTs each game while BabyKnight went for blink--Welmu was scouted each time and died as his DTs accomplished nothing.  This was the least interesting series to watch.
 
Picon small.png StarDust 2 Zicon small.png TLO 0
 
The series went as expected.  Game one StarDust went up to three bases (not saturating the third) as TLO built roaches to handle the initial gateway push (hitting before blink and +1 was finished) and as they traded out the German player wound up ahead; TLO aimed for a roach/hydra/viper army as StarDust transitioned to colossus; StarDust bought himself some time by catching half of TLO's army with his entire force (along with doing some warp prism harass); TLO forced StarDust to cancel his fourth and killed his third as StarDust harassed multiple bases (killing the fourth); TLO built a few broodlords, but StarDust attacked with his army and kept their supply count close before withdrawing as he rebuilt his third; TLO added ultralisks as StarDust built a dark shrine, adding tempests and storm; TLO killed the fourth again before withdrawing; TLO tried to attack the fifth, but ran into StarDust's army and had to withdraw; TLO attempted a flank, but didn't time the attack correctly to have all his units hit at the same time and was forced to tap out.  Game two StarDust went for an immortal/sentry attack as TLO responded with hydras; StarDust snipped the third and recalled out; TLO attacked the natural and while he traded he did no damage to the economy; StarDust teched to colossus while harassing with his warp prism; TLO forced a cancel at the third and then tried a surround the army, but StarDust used forcefields to prevent it and killed one half as the other withdrew; StarDust killed the third and shortly afterwards assaulted the natural, forcing TLO to tap out.  The first game was entertaining and well-worth watching.
 
Picon small.png StarDust 2 Picon small.png BabyKnight 0
 
This series followed predictions.  Game one BabyKnight went stargate as StarDust teched to blink and an expansion; BabyKnight didn't do much with his phoenix and then went for an attack with some immortals which he aborted almost immediately; both players went up to three bases as StarDust got double robo production behind him; StarDust used his blink stalkers to snipe the robo bay; BabyKnight attacked the third, but was forced to recall out while StarDust forced the cancel of the fourth; BabyKnight killed the fourth himself, but StarDust went for harassment at the main and third and did a ton of damage with DTs; BabyKnight's own harassment allowed him to snipe the third; StarDust (now up to 13 colossi) went for a fight and crushed BabyKnight.  Game two BabyKnight comically thought StarDust was in the wrong main while attempting a four-gate; StarDust also went for a four-gate; BabyKnight tried to go up the ramp, got cut off by forcefields and tapped out immediately.
 
Picon small.png Welmu 2 Zicon small.png TLO 1
 
This game also followed predictions.  Game one Welmu went up to a quick three bases as he added blink and +1; TLO went hydra heavy and built a proxy spire that went unscouted; Welmu feigned pressure at the third which did a tiny bit of economic damage; TLO sent hydras to the third, but they were chased away easily; mutas racked up a lot of probe kills and sniped the robo bay as the hydras killed the third; Welmu built a ton of blink stalkers, but continued to take damage from the mutas; TLO transitioned into ultralisk/infestor, attacking with his initial army just to trade and killed Welmu with the following attack.  Game two Welmu went for an early third base and went up to eight gates and blink as TLO attacked with a pile of roaches--he killed all the sentries, but was unable to do actual economic damage; TLO attacked again, but this time Welmu had an immortal and pushed back more effectively; TLO built a spire as Welmu went up to a ridiculous number of blink stalkers (33!) anchored by immortals; TLO attacked catching Welmu out of position, but couldn't hurt the Protoss economy; Welmu kept forces at home while attacking and in the end, army versus army, TLO couldn't hold against +3 attack and tapped out.  In the final game Welmu went super greedy into an immortal/sentry push as TLO again went for a spire; TLO attacked with lings as part of Welmu's army move out--nothing was killed which, despite the energy lost, was crucial--Welmu took a pair of brilliant engagements and despite having many stalkers beat the ling/muta army and won the game.  The third game was short, but featured great engagements by Welmu so is worth watching for that.  Game two was also a lot of fun and the closest of the three.
 
Picon small.png Welmu 2 Picon small.png BabyKnight 1
 
The re-match was more in line with predictions.  In game one both players went for blink which Welmu held against as he had more stalkers; Welmu aborted his own push as BabyKnight went for DTs--the scout gave the Finnish player the chance to get detection and prevent the DTs from doing anything; BabyKnight built up a huge immortal count and Welmu's stalker/sentry army could not handle it and he had to tap out.  In game two BabyKnight went for a stargate as Welmu went for DTs followed by blink; both players expanded twice as they transitioned into colossus; BabyKnight pressured the third despite being behind in army supply and got run over and tapped out.  In the final game Welmu went for an oracle and transitioned into a robo as BabyKnight went for blink; BabyKnight lost units to forcefields on the ramp and probes to continual oracle harassment; as Welmu took his natural BabyKnight tried to continue the pressure, but lost his observer so settled into a contain as he took his expansion; Welmu attacked the containing force and BabyKnight lost his entire army; Welmu killed the natural, but recalled due to some harassment; shortly afterwards BabyKnight tapped out after losing most of his stalker army while attacking.
 
StarDust and Welmu move on.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Thursday 27 March 2014

WCS Europe Round of 16 Results (Group B)

A much better day for WCS Europe.  Aligulac's predictions held strong in Group B, which produced better games than Group A.  The only negative was Apollo slipping into his bad habit of spending the majority of a game saying it was over (about 20 minutes of game three Dayshi/Snute)--it's something he really needs to break away from.  The VODs can be found here.  The games:
 
Ticon small.png jjakji 2 Picon small.png Grubby 0
 
The expected result, albeit game one was close and one of the best matches of the day.  Grubby opened with a proxy Twilight on his way to DTs; jjakji found the Twilight, but prepared for blink and took considerable damage from the DTs; jjakji went for widowmine drops followed by a marine/tank push that killed Grubby's mothership core and did considerable damage; the Terran went drop heavy and pinned Grubby (now firmly on colossus tech) on two bases for quite some time; Grubby was able to buy himself time with big zealot attacks on the natural and third (this permitted him to get up to four bases); jjakji pushed the fourth and killed it; by this time Grubby had templars and jjakji had ghosts; Grubby moved out without an observer and had to run from the ghosts who pursued, killing the army, the third and forcing Grubby to tap out.  Game two Grubby let an SCV into his main allowing jjakji to scout his robo build and he was attacked while his mothership core was out on the map and with only two gates he was forced to tap out shortly afterwards.
 
Zicon small.png Snute 2 Ticon small.png Dayshi 1
 
Game one Dayshi went for proxy two racks and despite Snute pulling a ton of drones Dayshi had enough SCVs with him to get the bunker up and force the Norwegian to tap out.  In game two Dayshi played pretty standard (hellion opening, with a Polt-viking rather than a banshee), something Snute has no trouble handling with queens and upgraded lings killed his initial hellion/marine push before they did any damage and with a ton of banelings did a ton of damage; both players settled into the usual muta/ling etc game, but with Snute having a tremendous economic damage and Dayshi very short on widowmines and the Frenchman had to tap out quickly.  In the final game Dayshi went for triple reaper which Snute defended with queens while sending lings for a counter which got into Dayshi's base and did tremendous damage; the game settled into muta/ling, but just like the previous game the economic advantage for Snute was something Dayshi could never dent and eventually got run over.  This series reminded me a lot of VortiX's ZvT's where typical Terran openings accomplished nothing, allowing the Zerg an economic advantage that could not be overcome (which would be echoed in the series that follows).
 
Zicon small.png Snute 2 Ticon small.png jjakji 1
 
Game one jjakji went for proxy racks, but couldn't get the bunker up and wound up very far behind; jjakji was about to get up to three bases while Snute went up to four; Snute had an upgrade lead and crushed jjakji's first army as he couldn't split well enough against banelings, but the win wasn't enough to end the game; jjakji harassed the fourth, but his widowmine wound up killing most of the marines and not much got accomplished; a drop into the main killed the spawning pool and spire; another pool killed the fifth; the attacks made jjakji's fourth safe; the Terran kept going drop heavy, snipping the ultralisk cavern and killing the fourth; jjakji overbuilt medevacs (up to 16) and the drops continued accomplishing a lot less; Snute was way ahead on army supply and built 44 banelings and crushed the army, denied the fifth and jjakji was starved out and while the game went on a little longer the outcome was not in doubt.  In game two jjakji went for a triple reaper opening with a  heavy blueflame hellion follow-up which Snute spotted with a ling ruby; despite building spines jjakji went around them and roasted the main and killing off 35 drones with the attack; jjakji went for a marine/tank follow-up and attacked the third, using his siege position to snipe the banelings and without them jjakji rolled over the rest of the army and forced Snute to tap out.  In the final game both players went super greedy with jjakji going for a marine/hellion attack which killed off some queens, but he was forced to retreat against banelings; jjakji sent a double drop into the main which Snute pushed away easily; jjakji got a double drop on the fourth snipped and accomplished nothing with a drop in the main; the Korean continued with multipronged drops which did okay damage, but jjakji did not take a fourth behind it and got his army run over in the next engagement; jjakji continued to lose drops without accomplishing much; he then lost most of his widowmines away from the army and Snute pushed him over burrowed banelings; while jjakji was still alive and had his fourth, he was so far behind the outcome was no longer in doubt and tapped out after the next engagement.  The third game was a good one and is worth checking out.
 
Ticon small.png Dayshi 2 Picon small.png Grubby 0
 
This entire series was very entertaining and worth watching.  Game one Dayshi went mech, building a ton of hellions (along with a ninja third) as Grubby was working his way to colossus; Dayshi's initial attack faced a wall, so after killing a pylon he pulled back; Grubby moved out with three colossus and they got crushed by the hellions (plus a couple of vikings); Dayshi pushed out with tanks added to his composition and while he took a bad fight he remained ahead; Grubby, rattled by the unusual strategy, only added his thermal lance now while getting storm for no reason anyone could figure out; the Dutchman was able to destroy Dayshi's ninja base while getting a fourth; Grubby went for heavy harass and attacked when Dayshi unsieged, but the Terran army was just too big for him to break; after the harassment was cleaned up Dayshi attacked and sieged the third, then the fourth; Grubby attempted a flank as Dayshi repositioned his army, but didn't have enough to crush it; Grubby attacked and Dayshi flanked him and killed most of his forces; the game went on a little longer, but was not in doubt (it was funny to see him kill a tank with probes).  In the final game Grubby went robo as Dayshi went for mines; Grubby held off the push at his natural, but not the drop into his main and took a ton of damage--even more as Dayshi put mines in the natural; the game settled as Dayshi went up to three bases; Dayshi had a double drop rejected and his attempted snipe of Grubby's third pushed back too; Grubby pushed too far and lost almost all his colossus; Dayshi went for a four-medevac drop in the main, but it didn't do that much; Grubby went to pressure the gold base, but got his entire army emp'd and lost all his colossus; Grubby fought on a bit longer, but the game was not in doubt and he eventually tapped out.
 
Ticon small.png jjakji 2 Ticon small.png Dayshi 1
 
Game one Dayshi went for a marine/hellion/SCV drop which straight out won him the game (a fun but short game to watch).  In game two jjakji got a reaper advantage (three to one) which Dayshi held off initially with some great micro; he held off the next attack with the help of hellions; the game settled for a bit as Dayshi went greedy; Dayshi lost some of his hellions out on the map trying to kill the reapers, and then more at the watch tower; jjakji went for a four-medevac drop in the main while attacking the third; Dayshi managed to hold, but took a lot of damage, and jjakji just kept dropping and Dayshi struggled to establish enough defence against it (being very late putting up turrets); jjakji went up to four bases and began to prepare for a sky Terran transition; jjakji kept up the pressure, attempting to snipe tanks; jjakji sent four medevacs into the main as he attacked the third, killing the CC; with a big bank jjakji pushed in and Dayshi tapped out as marauders wrecked his army.  In the final game Dayshi went for a reaper opener and jjakji was able to kill them off, leaving the Frenchman with no army; Dayshi walled off, but jjakji just elevatored up and ended the game.
 
Snute and jjakji move on.
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Wednesday 26 March 2014

WCS Europe Round of 16 Results (Group A)

The opening day of the round of 16 featured an upset (versus predictions), but despite that and a good list of players did not feature many entertaining series (there was one; the VODs have been posted).  The upsets by VortiX were as much poor play from his opponents than his own skill (Mvp could not or would not scout diligently, while MMA was unable to split against banelings even off creep.  Here's a look at the games:

Ticon small.png Mvp 2 Ticon small.png Bunny 0

Game one Bunny (going bio) went for an early cloaked banshee with a tank/marine push, but Mvp (going mech, as he did all night) did great damage before the push with a reaper/hellion runby and then held off the attack; Mvp did damage with his own cloaked banshee and then went for a double hellbat drop while Bunny was out on the map with his army and did tremendous economic damage; Bunny was forced to try to do damage and wound up getting his army shelled by tanks and shortly afterwards tapped out.  In game two Bunny built five reapers and did a good job harassing, but banshee harassment from Mvp put the Korean ahead who then killed the Dane with his first big attack.

Zicon small.png VortiX 2 Ticon small.png MMA 0

Game one MMA went for a weird, slightly proxy two-racks that VortiX scouted early which somehow wound up with both players relatively even and stable; MMA went for greed while VortiX set-up a baneling bust; the bust cancelled stim (MMA was researching it in his wall) and killed some workers; MMA dropped his tanks at the fourth to shell the third (even building turrets to protect them from mutas), forcing VortiX to take another third; MMA then went drop-happy before taking a bad fight outside his third, got behind and could not claw his way back (for whatever reason MMA had a hard time splitting his marines successfully against banelings).  In game two MMA went super greedy taking his third off of just two reapers; VortiX responded with a roach/bane attack which MMA prepared for too late and died too immediately.

Zicon small.png VortiX 2 Ticon small.png Mvp 0

The biggest upset of the night.  Game one VortiX went for a roach push and Mvp wasn't prepared and simply died to it.  In game two VortiX went for two-base muta and Mvp thought it was a roach attack--Mvp held off the initial attack and the next three that followed it, but the fourth attack (with VortiX's on five bases) finally killed him.

Ticon small.png MMA 2 Ticon small.png Bunny 1

Game one MMA went banshee followed by a tank/marine push, but while Bunny took a lot of indirect damage from the banshees he held without much difficulty; with the lead Bunny went for raven harass in the main while elevatoring his tanks to assault the natural and MMA abruptly tapped out.  In game two Bunny went for cloaked banshees, but MMA scouted it and nothing was accomplished; Bunny followed it with a tank/marine push which MMA held without losing much; Bunny held MMA's push (the same composition as Bunny's), but found himself very far behind and eventually died to a doom drop.  In the final game MMA went for a marine/tank push using the elevator play to pressure the main, which Bunny defended well, but the Dane's follow-up attack was awful as he threw away his army without accomplishing anything; MMA sieged the natural and Bunny could not break the contain even by pulling SCVs and tapped out shortly afterwards.  Bunny was clearly uncomfortable with the TvT matchup, but had a chance to beat MMA here.

Ticon small.png MMA 2 Ticon small.png Mvp 1

A modest upset and the best series of the day.  Game one MMA went for an early drop plus hellion runby which did some economic damage; Mvp's response with hellion/banshee did more damage and gave him a lead; MMA moved out with marine/tank and set up a contain outside the natural and Mvp pulled SCVs to break it; the game settled down as both players got solidly on three bases; MMA was able to kill a lot of Mvp's tanks caught out in the middle of the map by dropping on them, but he pushed further and got crushed by Mvp's defense at his third; Mvp was able to force the third and fourth to lift; the game settled again as both got established on four bases and Mvp began transitioning to battlecruisers; MMA went for a base trade before the BC's could arrive and that did not go well for him and he tapped out shortly afterwards.  In game two both players went for mirror openings (both going mech), with Mvp going for the drop/hellion runby that MMA did the previous game, doing a lot of damage with it; the players settled on to four bases before MMA made a huge push where he sieged the third and Mvp could not break it and had to tap out.  In the final game MMA made a marine/hellion push that Mvp was not ready for and he took a ton of damage; Mvp's desperation counter attack did a ton of damage, but he died to cloaked banshees while he was across the map (he had no defense against them).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Monday 24 March 2014

News & Notes (March 24th)

Gowerly takes a great look at builds from IEM Katowice and came to the following conclusions:
-Pros are consistent (no surprise)
-Matchups swing back and forth over time
-We can probably find optimal scouting routes
-Protoss players hate the middle of the map
-Players attacked right to left and top to bottom; most fights happen on the left or bottom of the map
 
I saw a great Go4sc2 Cup on Monday (17th) between MMA and Starbuck  (game three of their series), with the Zerg going for triple nydus, burrowed roaches, drops, and the whole bag of tricks  versus MMA's mech.  No VOD yet, sadly.

Speaking of great (or at least fun) games, TLO vs Harstem (game three) in the recent Vasacast International fits the bill, as TLO went for a hatch in Harstem's natural while the Protoss went for the gold base as his expo--the constant battling back and forth between the two lasted for over ten minutes and was a ton of fun.  The VOD has not been posted yet, but I expect Khaldor to do so at some point (I'll post the link when it appears).
 
VortiX won Vasacast, defeating jjakji 3-2 in the final.  It was a good tournament featuring a solid group of foreign participants along with a sprinkling of lesser Koreans.  MajOr took third (beating StarDust).  It was puzzling to see Jaedong lose to back-to-back immortal pushes from StarDust (in the R8) as he refused to build hydras, attempting to overcome the attack with roaches.
 
It comes as no surprise that NaNiwa was released from Alliance.  The only interesting tidbit is apparently NaNiwa tried to tell his team he didn't want to go to IEM Katowice, but they forced him to go anyway.  Regardless, whenever he returns to SC2 there will be a team who will take a chance on him.
 
I found the VOD of the HyuN vs jjakji game I referenced in the last News & Notes.
 
WCS Korea (semis) and Europe (R16) begin tomorrow and for those who missed it here are predictions for both (Korea/Europe).
 
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Friday 21 March 2014

WCS Korea Semi-Final Predictions

The Round of 8 is in the books and I got murdered in my predictions (1-3) while Aligulac was simply mediocre (2-2)--I think IEM fatigue hurt sOs and herO (less so Life who was eliminated earlier).  The semi's feature two mirror matches:

Picon small.png Zest
Picon small.png Rain

Aligulac gives this to Zest (63%); the favourite has only ever played one offline BO5 match (his win over sOs), but he's undefeated in offline PvP (BO3 6-0) and hasn't lost a multi-game PvP since Squirtle beat him back in September (he's 18-1 since late July).  Rain also hasn't lost an offline BO5 PvP (he's 3-0), and in BO3's he's 11-3.  All of that shows how strong both players are in the match-up and given that equality I'll bow to Aligulac and go with Zest.

Zicon small.png Life
Zicon small.png soO

Aligulac has Life as the overwhelming favourite (79%); neither has lost an offline BO5 ZvZ (granted Life has done it four times and soO only once), but Life is much better in the match-up so it's easy to go with Aligulac here.

Both Aligulac and I see Zest and Life moving on.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)