StarCraft News & Notes

Last week's community feedback focussed on Protoss design, but as nothing concrete was put forward as being tested it remains food for thought.  In terms of specifics David Kim did acknowledge the zealot's role being heavily reduced in LOTV and needing a fix (something to keep in mind when I get to JaKaTaK below).

Qxc had an interesting idea for making photon overcharge more interesting (shared on The Late Game), where he suggested making it cost less mana, but have a much shorter duration and a longer cooldown, making its use strategic.

Speaking of qxc, he made another blog about the state of LOTV (which is well worth reading) and at the tail end of it commented about the never-ending debate over the economy in the upcoming expansion:

One of the most talked about topics of LoTV is the economy, which has not changed significantly for a long time. At this point, it seems likely that Blizzard will not be implementing any additional economy changes. LoTV’s current economy does what it needs to do well enough and I’m glad that Blizzard is spending their resources elsewhere rather than endlessly trying to test and tweak new economies. A new economy unhinges everything regarding balance, timings and the general flow of the game. Ensuring that a new economy is good for the game would require a tremendous amount of time and energy that I’d rather Blizzard put toward other issues. The current economy alreadyfixes many of the gameplay frustrations from HoTS regarding turtling and stagnant play. Due to the incredible complexity of this issue and varied stances, no matter what economy LoTV ends up using, a group of people will be unhappy with it. As the current LoTV economy addresses the major issues from HoTS already, the time that could be spent experimenting and testing new economies is time that can be better spent on quality of life improvements, additional balance and so forth.

I completely agree with him--no matter what Blizzard did with the economy someone was going to be upset about it and I'm glad they're moving on to the other complexities of the game.

Day9 briefly talked about his impressions of LOTV thus far (around 46:00-50:00 into the video), where he likes the idea of the new units, but is concerned that the increased starting economy will be too intimidating for newbies.  The latter concern is a bit puzzling for me, since HOTS already has a slower economy and that's done nothing to halt SC2's decline in popularity.

I watched most of the NA Gauntlet Cup 2 (Jaedong was "NA"--just part of the weird wacky world of how WCS orients things), which I enjoyed.  I do wish the casters were a more consistent in upkeeping their scoreboards and overlays, but otherwise did a solid job (it was nice to see actual players from the Americas succeed in the tournament--Kelazhur won it over JonSnow).

Speaking of money, WCS is increasingly the only premier tournament where foreigners can win prize money.  In 2015, other than WCS, there have been three IEM's, two DreamHack's, and a HomeStory Cup among the premier tourneys, and here's how little impact it's had for non-Koreans:

IEM Taipai: Harstem (9th-12th, $400), Sen (13th-16th, $350)
IEM World Championship: none
DreamHack Tours: Harstem (5th-8th, $1,000), MaNa/Snute/Lilbow (9th-16th, $0)
HomeStory: Lilbow/MarineLorD/PtitDrogo (5th-8th, $875)
DreamHack Valencia: MarineLorD (5th-8th, $1,000), Ret/Verdi/Serral/Arium/MorroW/Harstem (9th-16th, $0)
IEM Shenzhen: XY/Snute/uThermal (5th-8th, $1,000), Kelazhur/Jim (9th-12th, $400), Cyan/Bistork (13th-16th, $350)

The highest earning foreigner above is MarineLorD at $1,875; to put that in perspective, that's less than he earns for losing in Challenger.  Granted, this is a somewhat thin slice of what's available to foreigners, as the local Chinese scene is quite robust (keeping Chinese players near the top of the foreigner money list), but I bring this up because it didn't used to be this slanted towards WCS (current leader Bunny has made $20,000 of his $31,983 via WCS, 62% of his earnings).  It's only been two years since NaNiwa topped the charts for foreigners with only $12,400 of his $84,331 earnings coming from WCS (14%, similar to 2014 top earner Snute who won $10,000 of his $66,591 via WCS, 15%).  With the amount of prize money available shrinking, I think it'll be incumbent on Blizzard to pump even more money into the WCS system to make the game viable for pros to play fulltime.

A number of tournament organisers are taking measures to track and punish pros who don't show up to their events.  This quite sensible step has rustled the jimmies of a few pros/personalities, but so long as its done sensibly it serves a useful purpose.

Speaking of tournaments, Lycan is considering running a HomeStory Cup-style event and went over some of the details/ideas on the latest TLG.  It has a lot of potential and I hope he follows through with it.

Oooophidian has launched a successful kickstarter to unmask all the GM/Master barcodes, which I think is fantastic.

DuSt has started an NA team league, something much less ambitious than TotalBiscuit's now defunct Clan Wars.  I like the idea and hope it succeeds.  If nothing else it provides a venue for players who don't get much competitive experience to test their mettle and make a name for themselves.

Another retired SC2 pro came out of the woodwork to stream, as Machine reappeared after being absent since last 2013.  I don't think this marks a return to either regular streaming or competitive play, but it's interesting seeing old school SC2 pros reappear after such long absences.

JaKaTaK doesn't like the mothership core (his Twitch stream for Tea Time was called "The MSC Must Die"), but rather than make a Reddit post talking about the specifics of that and seeking opinions, he asked how fun the unit is.  Later in the thread he clarified what he was after:

The purpose of this question is to promote discussion and to learn more about arguments for and against certain changes.

It's a laudable goal, but a very odd way to approach it.  "Fun" is a relative term and not the best barometer of design.  He subsequently posted a video arguing that the zealot should be buffed in LOTV (with NXZ noting some potential flaws in the data presented--and why only show limited PvZ interactions?).  Presumably his idea is to strengthen gateway units so that Protoss don't need the MSC to defend in the early game, but if so it's a roundabout way to get to his main point.  JaKaTaK has good intentions, but the point he was trying to make hasn't come through coherently.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger European Predictions: Group C

Predictions for day two were the same across the board and there was only one surprise: Bunny losing to Starbuck; the Danish player was unable to adjust to the Slovenians strategy even though it was roaches roaches roaches every single game--not to take anything away from the Zerg player who returns to Premier after a one-season absence.  That upset put me (and everyone) at 4-1 on the day.  Onto the odds and predictions for the final day of Challenger:

Elazer vs Welmu - Aligulac gives the edge to the Finn (55%) and TL likes him as well; the Protoss player seems to have shaken off some of his issues in PvZ as he's had a recent string of victories over TLO, Snute, and TargA; that said, he's not unbeatable and the Polish player recently beat ShoWTimE--still, I'll stick with the odds here

GunGFuBanDa vs DnS - the German is an overwhelming favourite (80%; TL likes him too); unless your name is ShoWTimE the favoured Protoss hasn't lost a PvP series since March, so sticking with the odds is easy; I wonder if DnS will wind up being one of those Protoss players who appears once in Challenger briefly and then vanishes (ala PsiOniC, Majestic, etc)

Harstem vs Nerchio - everyone is still waiting for the Year of Harstem to occur, while the good times for the Polish Zerg drift further and further away as WOL fades into the past; Aligulac gives the Polish player an edge (58%; it was 55%); in the three series they've played in HOTS Nerchio has won two of them, but Harstem beat him 2-0 most recently and TL see's him winning; the Dutch player has been a little stronger in the match-up recently (19-3 vs 19-6) and there's nothing that stands out suggesting a win for the Zerg--this really could go either way, but I'll go with TL and the upset

FireCake vs Zanster - the odds make this a virtual coin flip (50% for the French Zerg, who TL likes as well); the Swede holds a very slight edge against his opponent (4-3), but lost when it mattered in their prior meeting in Challenger last season; FireCake hasn't lost a ZvZ since dropping a series to Stephano back in 2014; the Swede is also an excellent ZvZ player, with almost as dominant a record since losing to his opponent in April (16-2); I'd like to think after their last match Zanster has figured something out and I'll go with the upset here

Aligulac and TL agree on Welmu, GunGFuBanDa, and FireCake; I share TL's "upset" with Harstem as well as one of my own with the Swedish hope in Zanster.  Hopefully we'll get matches that are a bit more competitive than day two (so more like day one).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger European Predictions: Group B

The first day of EU Challenger is in the books and while there were no true upsets, predictions were a mixed bag for me (I went 3-2, Aligulac was 4-1 and TL was 5-0).  Looking forward with Aligulac, here's the next group from Challenger (TL's predictions are also noted):

ForGG vs Dayshi - the French player just hasn't been the same since he took a break from SC2 almost a year ago, so while it's great that he finally qualified for Challenger this year it's difficult to imagine him posing a challenge to the Korean; Aligulac puts the odds at 93% (!) and ForGG owns a 20-0 record against his opponent; the last meaningful win Dayshi had over a Korean Terran was beating Bomber at HomeStory Cup over a year ago--neither I nor TL see him replicating the feat here

Bunny vs Starbuck - the Dane is favoured (68%; it was 72%), with a 5-1 record against his opponent; the Slovenian has not played much ZvT this year, and while his record is very good (9-1), none of the wins are over players of Bunny's caliber; the Terran did lose to Serral not long ago, but otherwise only loses to top Zergs and that's not where his opponent is right now; TL and the odds agree with the favourite

TLO vs Bly - the odds have this as a virtual coin flip (50% for the German), with TLO holding the historical edge against the Ukrainian; Bly won their last BO3 2-1, but the energetic Zerg plays in everything--the German will have more replays than he knows what to do with to prepare and I (along with TL) would like to think in a BO5 TLO can plan well and win out

Lilbow vs SortOf - the Frenchman is an overwhelming favourite (84%); there's nothing in the Swede's ZvP track record to indicate an upset and I don't think the French player's random loss to Namshar is a warning sign; TL and I take the odds

elfi vs uThermal - the Dutch player is favoured (55%), and he's one of the few Terrans who prefers TvP over TvZ as a match-up; the Finnish player is going to cheese every game, but when he's losing 2-0 to Frozz it's difficult to see an upset here (even with the Terran losing randomly to Cooltea recently); TL and I stick with the odds

This is one of the few cases where both myself and everyone else seems to agree on who is making it through (ForGG, Bunny, TLO, Lilbow, and uThermal).  There's certainly plenty of space for one or two of these predictions to fail, but certainly the evidence at hand supports these results.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger European Predictions: Group A

Unlike last season where NA predictions were an easy 7-0, Hitman pulled off an upset (largely on the back of macro games), as did (in terms of the odds) the semi-retired Kane.  Polt had the expected one-sided stomp over JonSnow (who looked good in game one, but then fell apart), while qxc and viOLet played a sloppy series that the Korean won out.  Overall Aligulac and I were 4-3 while TL was 3-4.  TL's predictions for Europe are posted and I'll reference them below:

MarineLorD vs DmC - unsurprisingly the French Terran is favoured (78%); over the last few months the Terran has only lost to Lilbow and Harstem in TvP; over the same period the surprise qualifier has a good record in the match-up (despite an odd weakness against Kas), but really hasn't beaten an opponent of this caliber so I (along with TL) stick with the odds

MaNa vs Happy - the Russian is favoured (59%), and is on a 14-0 run in TvP series (including a win over his opponent); the Polish Protoss is on an 0-6 run in the match-up and just hasn't been the same player he was in March; Happy tends to lose due to his predictability and that's clearly why TL believes he'll lose, but if the trends mean anything I'll stick with Aligulac and the "upset"

Snute vs Serral - the former swarmhost master vs his protégé, this would have been an incredible (or awful) match-up prior to the nerf in April; Aligulac favours the Norwegian (71%), and while Snute isn't unbeatable in the match-up, he's got a much stronger track record than the Finn--who oddly hasn't played that many ZvZs in 2015--so I (and TL) agree with the odds

Ret vs HeRoMaRinE - I was very surprised that Ret not only made it to Premier but to the R16 as well; it's no surprise that the German is favoured (66%); the Dutch Zerg hasn't played many ZvT's in 2015, but actually has a good record since February (11-1), including a victory against his opponent; the German also hasn't played many TvZ's this year, but has a mixed record in the match-up since February (5-6); I'd like the fixture of the ESL scene to win here, but the background data supports a return to Premier for Ret for me (TL sticks with the odds)

ShoWTimE vs NaNiwa - Aligulac makes this almost a coin toss (51% for the German); PvP is the matchup the Swede has struggled with the most since he returned and getting crushed by GunGFuBanDa in his last Challenger series doesn't help; the German is very good in the matchup (15-1 of late) and both I (and TL) see him winning out

Aligulac, TL, and I agree on MarineLorD, Snute, and ShoWTimE; Aligulac and I have Happy and only I take Ret.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger Predictions: Group B

Group A has come and gone with two underdogs playing standard macro games and getting crushed (Bails and Semper), along with an upset where Neeb threw in a delightful cheese to help him reach his sixth time in Premier (but his first as a Protoss).  StarDust becomes the first Korean not to make it through Challenger this year and I have to wonder what kind of soul searching he's doing in the aftermath (especially given his trash-talking his opponent beforehand--granted, he capitulated in good humour).  These results leave Aligulac and I's predictions at 2-1, with TL at 1-2.

Just a note: it's worth remembering Challenger matches for all regions outside NA and EU are already complete.  I don't think I mentioned it before, but I liked Challenger picks being made via Twitter (granted, perhaps a time limit will prevent players like FireCake taking forever).  At any rate, back to predictions.  I ran these numbers when the matches were first announced and I'll note any changes since:

Polt vs JonSnow - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (86%; it was 87%); he won their only meeting 2-0 (granted that was almost a year ago), and ZvT is the American's worst matchup (losing to Apocalypse a couple of weeks ago is not a good sign); I (and TL) will stick with the odds

viOLet vs qxc - two players with long track records of crashing and burning in WCS; not surprisingly, the Korean is favoured (73%, it was 67%), and this is a rematch for him from last season (where he crushed the American 3-0--he also beat him in the Gamescon qualifier last week 2-0); for qxc the issue isn't the Korean's ZvT, but his own struggles in the matchup; if there's any solace for the Terran it's that the last Korean Zerg he beat was his opponent (twice), but his most recent win was a long time ago (November); I'd love an upset here, but (along with TL) I don't see it happening

Xenocider vs Hitman - potentially one of the most fun series of the day, the better-known Terran is favoured (54%; it was 56%), although the two have never played before in a tournament; when I think of this year's Xenocider I think of a guy who crashes and burns in tournaments--in 2015 the only meaningful match he's won was knocking off puCK to make it to Premier in season two; on the flipside, Hitman hardly plays in anything--this WCS qualifier was the first he's participated in since season one in 2014; the Protoss has no recent PvT track record to look at (his last BO3 was in December); the better known-American hasn't played many TvP series since April (losing to Rain and San), although up to that point he was solid in the matchup (8-4); this series is hard to call--it could be a 3-0 for the Terran; all I can say for sure is that the Protoss is going to do weird builds; I'd love an upset here, but (along with TL) I'll stick with the odds

HuK vs Kane - this could have been a fantastic series just a few months ago, but now we have a Zerg player who has lost his passion and is semi-retired vs a Protoss player in decline; Aligulac favours HuK (60%; it was 64%) and neither I or TL see a reason to argue

Similar to last season, there's broad agreement over the result of these match-ups, with Aligulac, TL, and I all seeing Polt, viOLet, Xenocider, and HuK moving forward.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger Predictions: Group A

The clock is ticking for me to get predictions out in time for today, so we'll skip the usual preamble and jump into the Aligulac machine for Group A.  It's worth noting that I ran the numbers for the NA side of Challenger the moment the matches were decided, so I'll note any variation between the numbers then and now (TL also has their predictions up as well and I'll note them below).

Group A
Jaedong vs Semper - the Tyrant is heavily favoured (77%; it was 78%); is there any hope for the Canadian?  Jaedong used to be untouchable against foreign terrans, but he has lost a couple of times lately (granted, that was to Bunny and MarineLorD); also, Semper has been excellent in the matchup going back into December (28-4), but it's still a very big stretch to see an upset here and I do not (TL also takes the Tyrant)

StarDust vs Neeb - once again the Korean is favoured (80%; it was 81%); once again we have to ask, is there hope for an upset?  The American hasn't been a Protoss for very long (just a few months), where his kryptonite has been Terran, not Protoss (other than puCK he has hasn't lost a PvP series yet); StarDust is not unbeatable in the match-up (he probably should have lost to HuK in last season's Challenger match), but he hasn't lost a PvP series vs a NA Protoss since 2013, so I'll take the favourite here (TL also takes the Korean)

MaSa vs Bails - the Canadian is a slight favourite (50%; it was 53%), with a 4-1 edge against his opponent; when I think of MaSa, I think of monster macro player whose issues are his decision-making; he's lost his last three TvP's, but he's historically good in the matchup; the American is 10-2 of late and also strong in PvT; moving to the ROOT house is supposed to make MaSa a better player and I'm going to assume it's helping and take him here (TL takes Bails)

So Aligulac and I have the same trio moving forward (the two Koreans and MaSa), while TL differs in the latter case in taking Bails.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

Legacy of the Void pre-order has been posted, including a kind-of, sort-of release date:

Game is due for release before March 20, 2016

HOTS was released March 12th (2013), but given that the information includes a range of release dates (including 2015), it's impossible to guess the official release--I'd like to think before season one of WCS in 2016, however.  Regardless, with orders now available the true hype can begin for the game itself.  I've played the three prologue missions and I enjoyed them; it's also been entertaining to watch much better players have to work to get through them on brutal (a difficulty that should be a challenge)--for those who missed it, both Nathanias (yesterday) and Fenner had fun runs (Lowko's is good as well).

The latest LOTV balance update featured small changes to Protoss and Zerg (disruptor tweaking continues and the Ravager has partially been brought back from the dead), and quite a few to Terran (armor upgrades combined for mech and broader changes to the liberator and raven).

With more and more streamers playing LOTV it's interesting seeing a wide variety of responses to the units.  To pick just one example, avilo hated the Liberator when he started using it, but it's now one of his favourite units.

David Kim's latest feedback (discussing the recent community summit) included this little nugget:

New Terran/Zerg units are a bit easier to use than Protoss because Protoss is currently the slightly easier race to master.

This lead to Fenix making a long post about that topic which is worth going through (although I'd be more hesitant than he is in suggesting he's expressing the expectations of the community; maybe a little less ALL CAPS as well--italics are for emphasis, CAPS are for shouting).  His ideas for forcefields and warp-ins seem overly convoluted to me, but they are a lot more sensible than the usual hyperbole against Protoss design--and that's the real problem for Blizzard, there just aren't many good suggestions for fixing Protoss that don't involve completely changing the race (the last one I can think of was Nathanias vaguely suggesting they buff gateway units), something we know isn't going to happen.  Even now in LOTV where Protoss is the third wheel people still whine about it (perhaps it's just that ingrained).

Zergs dominated the KeSPA-Cup, the only Korean tournament using the current WCS map pool (SoO beat Dark 4-1 in the final).  It's hardly the only tournament since my last post, as we had a lacklustre DreamHack (Valencia, where a humdrum group of B-grade Koreans lined up to get demolished by Curious).  I've never been a fan of the oft-used formula of top foreigners vs mostly Code A (or worse) Koreans.  IEM Shenzhen had a slightly better mix, but with arguably the four best Protoss players included it was simply a matter of which of them (in this case Classic) was going to win.  Having the IEM and DreamHack at the same time is silly, but with one in China it's the least impactful collision.  In terms of notable foreign performances at both: Arium beat Symbol, MorroW beat Pigbaby, and Snute beat both Rain and Classic (granted, both of the Norwegian's wins were non-elimination games for the Koreans).  I've said this before, but I really think SC2 would benefit from mostly region-locked tournaments (ie, all-Korean or all-foreigner) with just two or three a year where top foreigners face top Koreans--sure they'll get annihilated, but at least fans will see the best players.

Speaking of tournaments, ShoutCraft is returning to replace Clan Wars (with a 5k prize pool).  I'd like TotalBiscuit to make it a foreigner-only event, but I don't think that will be the case.  It's great that this is coming soon as desRow's weekly is apparently defunct (the last was played in May).

There was an interesting comment by Rotterdam on his stream awhile ago (the 9th I think; a recent Thursday) in discussing the PvT match-up.  He said that a Protoss who plays passively and defensively against Terran is at a disadvantage, bringing up the SSL final between Classic vs Dream (where the latter's only loss on Deadwing was him playing exactly that style).  It's an interesting line of thought given that aggressive Protoss play (aggressive macro play, as Scarlett puts it) is what tilts so many people.

Speaking of match-ups, while TLO doesn't like ZvP, he does think the new maps are good for Zerg.

Petraeus has announced a Kane-like school "break" from pro gaming; I'm not sure what (if any) impact this will have on his participation in Premier.

JaKaTaK talking about misunderstandings and criticisms of the sandbox and him personally.  I think he does a good job of both addressing the impression that he was demonizing the ladder, the cult-like feeling some had about the sandbox, as well as a perception of a holier-than-thou attitude from he himself (I feel like the latter informs the middle point, wherein the sandbox group came across as inflexible in its opinions about how to do things--clearly not their intention, but for those who saw them on The Late Game it did come across that way).

Speaking of JaKaTaK, he mentioned a fact (via Blizzard) I hadn't heard before, which is that the current SC2 player base is at 2 million--this is higher than other numbers bandied about in various SC2 talk shows (500k is usually the given figure given).  While it's much smaller than LOL, DOTA, etc, it's still quite significant.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Season Three Qualifiers

In what must be the fastest turn around between seasons, less than 48-hours after Hydra won season two the WCS qualifiers for season three began (the first without any Koreans participating).

NA Qualifier
Day One (99 players, virtually the same as season two)
Bails - reaches Challenger for the fourth time in his career (his biggest hurdle was puCK in the qualifying match)
JonSnow - enters the WCS system for the first time (beating PiLiPiLi among others) [correction: he was in the system in season three 2013]
The day was notable in that two cheesy Protoss players (Larry and printf) made it extremely deep in their brackets, as did RuFF (Tilea and HuK were the other players in the top-eight).  Notables who fell out early: intense lost to puCK; State lost to Neeb (who lost to puCK); Guitarcheese lost to Zeal (who lost to printf); Drunkenboi lost to PLZLEAVEDUCK; Catz lost to RuFF; PiLiPiLi lost to JonSnow; Semper lost to Tilea (who lost to Larry); and qxc lost to Mcanning (!).  There were a ton of fun games, with a mix of ridiculous strategies, incredible holds, and what not.

Day Two (110 players--the most for a NA qualifier since season one)
Neeb - returns to Challenger for the first time since he was a terran in season three in 2014 (beating PiLiPiLi)
qxc -  returns to Challenger, knocking off puCK (who lost in his second straight qualifying match)
Highlights: Catz lost his grudge match against desRow; Scarlett participated for the only time, losing early to Drunkenboi; HuK, Semper, and Pengwin (!) made solid runs again.

Day Three (106 players)
Semper - returns to Challenger (he made it in season one), beating Gayguy (aka Melancholy and many other names) in the final, along with Drunkenboi on the way
Hitman - the notorious NA Protoss had his most notable result since ShoutCraft in 2013, taking out puCK, State, and Larry on the way
A couple of the accounts might have been smurfs, particularly the Zerg player blu who went quite far (losing to Hitman eventually, but taking out NoRegreT, PLZLEAVEDUCK, and Suppy).  Other well- known players who lost in the brackets: Catz, HuK, and desRow.  Scarlett didn't participate and Tweeted that she wouldn't attempt WCS again this year.

Day Four (101 players)
HuK - returns to Challenger at last, beating Catz, Believe, RuFF, and intense on the way.
Other notables who fell on the way: puCK, Guitarcheese, Suppy, PiLiPiLi, and State.

With the NA qualifiers complete, 4 Protoss, 2 Terrans, and a Zerg were added to the system.  Two players made it into Challenger for the first time, while a number of former WCS participants failed to qualify.  The best performer who didn't make it was puCK, who lost three straight qualifying matches before getting knocked out in the quarterfinals on day four (it's the first time he hasn't made it to at least Challenger since HOTS came out)--I know on the third day he was struggling with Internet issues and that might have impacted all the qualifiers for him.

There were a number of things that struck me about the NA qualifier.  Last season's qualifier Zeal only participated once; Gayguy didn't participate in the final qualifier after nearly making it through in the third; according to his stream State was playing from California so he has to be disappointed that all his practice in Korea did not see him through; intense, who usually does very well in qualifiers, struggled throughout; RuFF had by far his best run at Challenger and probably should have won his match against HuK on the final day;  Larry did well throughout the qualifier; it's incredible to think that not only did Catz not qualify, but he didn't make it to a qualifying match--I have to wonder if he'll return to Copa America next year, or if he see's it as simply a bad week.  A number of notable players from last season didn't participate at all, including Astrea, Illusion, NonY, Goswser, and ViBE.

The Challenger selections followed and they were a bit less intuitive than last season:
Polt > JonSnow
Jaedong > Semper
StarDust > Neeb
viOLet > qxc
MaSa > Bails
Xenocider > Hitman
HuK > Kane
The first two picks make a lot of sense and while I won't do the odds this early there's little reason to doubt the two Koreans are perfectly safe with those matchups.  I am a bit surprised that Neeb was the next choice--StarDust could have gone with a different Protoss (why not the least accomplished in Hitman?), or why not aim for a PvZ against a guy who has largely checked out of SC2 in Kane?  The next choice makes a lot of sense (no offense to qxc, but clearly viOLet wanted to avoid both Protoss and the mirror matchup), and the logic of those that follows is pretty clear.  Still, it's funny to me how many players steered clear of Hitman--as notorious as he might be on ladder, he's had no significant results in a tournament since the NA-only ShoutCraft two years ago.

EU Qualifier
Day One (275 players, the most participants in 2015)
ShoWTimE - no surprise he made it through, with a fairly easy bracket other than Zanster (who also had an easy bracket)
Welmu - a bit of a tougher road for the Finn, beating Beastyqt and PtitDrogo
Bly - went through a tough bracket (DIMAGA, Majestic, and uThermal), facing Starbuck at the end
SortOf - back from the dead (he was last in Challenger in season three in 2014), beating Happy at the end
A number of luminaries fell in the bracket--beyond the aforementioned: TargA, Nerchio, HeRoMaRinE, MorroW, and others.  It was also the return of Adelscott to WCS.  Incidentally, Madels had been casting these in the previous seasons, but that no longer seems to be the case, so Wardi had the predominant English cast (I find he's very much like Madels; rather bland and could use a passionate co-caster).

Day Two (242 players)
Nerchio - returns to Challenger, defeating Zanster and PsiOniC on the way
Happy - also returns, ripping through an easy bracket
NaNiwa - yet another returnee, with Lambo and TargA the biggest challenges
uThermal - the Dutch player who prefers TvP instead of TvZ; beat PtitDrogo and Kas

Day Three (215 players; the last open qualifier)
Zanster - returns to Challenger through a pretty easy bracket (DeMuslim was his best known opponent)
HeRoMaRinE - also returns to Challenger, beating MorroW and Verdi in the process
Serral - another returnee, he took out DIMAGA, Dayshi, and PsiOniC
DMC - a first-time qualifier, he had a fairly easy bracket, beating Starbuck and Jona

Day Four (Last Chance qualifier; 16 invited players)
Tarrantius and MorroW had to forfeit their places (allowing Funk and Beastyqt to play); other players narrowly left off the dance floor: Optimus, Miniraser, and ZhuGeLiang.
Starbuck - one of the only players to return to the scene and resume a place immediately in Challenger; he beat DeMuslim, Beastyqt, and Jona to qualify
DnS - the French Protoss arrives in Challenger for the first time in his career (beating Miszu, Basior, and Dayshi)
Dayshi - returns to the WCS system for the first time since season three in 2014; he still doesn't look like he's recovered his form, but managed to beat Denver, Strange, PsiOniC, and PtitDrogo to make it through

In the end 6 Zergs, 5 Protoss, and 4 Terrans make it through to Challenger (and like NA, with two first-time participants).  PtitDrogo and MorroW are the players who performed the best who did not qualify.

In terms of the picks for Challenger, I have a few thoughts:
Lilbow > SortOf
Bunny > Starbuck
TLO > Bly
MarineLorD > DMC
FireCake > Zanster
GunGFuBanDa > DnS
ForGG > Dayshi
Harstem > Nerchio
Ret > HeRoMaRinE
elfi > uThermal
Elazer > Welmu
Snute > Serral
MaNa > Happy
ShoWTimE > NaNiwa

Everyone steered clear of NaNiwa, despite his struggles in PvP since returning; the first two picks are interesting, since there was a preference for Zerg over Protoss (given that two largely unknown Protoss players are in the bracket, normally I would have expected them to go before players like Starbuck, although Lilbow may have simply wanted to avoid the unpredictability of the mirror matchup); apparently there were people upset that ForGG picked Dayshi, but I'm surprised he wasn't chosen earlier; I'm not sure what Harstem was thinking in picking Nerchio, although perhaps he doesn't like PvT (HeRoMaRinE was the weakest player still on the board); otherwise the selections all make sense on paper.

Once again Copa America qualifiers were crushed by Kelazhur (who beat ReasoN 3-1) and MajOr (who beat JimRising 3-0).  Will either perform better in Premier?  Time will tell.  The results certainly illustrate why Catz made the switch to NA (not that it turned out the way he hoped, clearly).

The SEA qualifiers have come and gone (sign-ups for the qualifier were slightly higher than season two (64 from 61), but lower than season one (77)), with Petraeus (back home from Europe) and Blysk making it through to Challenger.  This was a return trip for the Protoss player (who got wrecked by iaguz last time around), but he had the exact same result against the Gimli-Terran last night (3-0).  Petraeus dispatched NXZ in similar fashion (3-0), which isn't a surprise, although the latter struggled through lag, making it seem a bit more lopsided than it could have been.  Despite the small player base, the SEA scene seems pretty healthy--there isn't the same sense that the same two players will automatically make it to Premier every time (unlike Copa America above).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

The community feedback continues and the element I want to address is the maps.  Pros (and others) have complained vociferously about the current map pool--all the new choices being drawn from the most recent TL contest.  While there may very well be imbalanced elements in the maps, but I do like the idea of diversity--it's fun to see top players work outside their comfort zone and come up with map-specific strategies.  It seems like it's impossible to turtle on any of them--a discomforting thing for defensive players (RIP avilo), but a good one for increased action.  State has posted a look at the scouting distances in the current map pool.

 

WCS viewership numbers (via fuzic) were a slight drop from season one, but looking at the context (see image above), this season's numbers are still better than any in WCS 2014 (BlizzCon last year averaged 50k).  The region lock seems to have helped provide a boost to viewership and perhaps Lilbow's run will add some spice in season three before we get a true region lock.

As expected the current GSL champ Rain won the latest edition of the tournament (his only loss was to Lilbow in the R16); that his opponent was Sacsri was a surprise, but well done to the MYI player.  On the foreigner side of things, three French players (Lilbow, MarineLorD, and PtitDrogo) made it to the R8, but all fell there (Lilbow came closest to moving on, losing 3-2 to Jaedong).  I agree with TLO's theory that the reason foreign players can beat Koreans in group rounds but fail when they meet them later is due to a lack of diversity in their strategies.  Regardless, the event is much more about the relaxed atmosphere and as such was fantastic (Scarlett did well as a host).  Here are highlights from day one, day two, and day three [day four]; the Ode to David Kim; Rotterdam wrecking DeMuslim; there was a lot of fun on the B-stream as well with BaseTrade, but nothing has been posted yet.  It's worth noting that Home Story Cup's viewership was quite a bit lower than in the past (about two-thirds of HSC X and around 70% of HSC IX)--the decline is similar to DreamHack's in viewership.

Artosis offered his thoughts on number of things, including the differences between SC1 and SC2 where he talks about the latter being a more strategic game:

SC1 is a game of speed and mechanics. Yes, there is a lot of strategy, of course, but it is certainly secondary to being able to make as many units as possible and to move those units in the right way.  SC2 is a game of strategy. Yes, there are lots of mechanics and speed required, of course, but those are much less punishing than making incorrect strategic choices.

Yet more retired players have returned to the game as Starbuck and frozz are back after short breaks.  Both are participating in the WCS qualifiers.

Lycan brought on JakaTaK & Co. to talk about their Sandbox initiative and I recommend watching the discussion.  I have to think that until a player achieves specific results attributed to deliberate training it will remain a curiosity in the pro community (a reaction very clear on the latest TLG with desRow and Nathanias; JaKaTaK did say the focus of the group was on tournament results).  This isn't really a surprise as all competitors are results oriented, so whatever objections there might be would largely disappear the moment someone achieves something under their wing.

Somewhat related, TL has set up a strategy strat chat.  There's also a new tool to look at build orders.

I've been curious which Zerg players have been most impacted by the swarmhost change--something that's hard to track (unlike broodlord/infestor in WOL, since every Zerg player depended on it--I looked at its impact on players awhile back).  A few pros come to mind, two of the most notable are Kane and PiG, who have almost completely fallen off the map since WCS season one (the former hasn't participated in WCS qualifiers--or much of anything--while the latter failed to get through the SEA qualifiers in both seasons since the change).  This isn't to say either were completely dependent on the unit, but there's a very clear change in their results since.  Another is Serral, a Finnish player on the rise who fell out of Challenger and hasn't done much since.  Finally, Snute (the ultimate swarmhost player) has felt the impact--someone who had comfortably become the best foreigner is now just one of the best (comments like this from him are discouraging, but hopefully he perseveres).  There are probably more players struggling to adjust, but it's a pretty small number given how many players had adopted Snute's style before the patch.  The plus side is that it has meant much more entertaining styles of play from Zergs.

I stumbled across the Rival StarCraft League recently (a small tournament run by Hawkeye), which is already two iterations in.  I can't help but think the acronym (RSL) confuses some people--it did me as I thought it was the (now defunct) Russian StarCraft League.  For those interested in the VODs they can be found here; I think Hawkeye could help himself out by either making it an NA or at least foreign-only event.

Speaking of smaller tournaments, Drunkenboi won the ESL NA Open last night.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)