WCS Premier Preview (Groups G and H)

 

The final two groups of WCS R32 play out later this week and I'm going back to the Aligulac crystal ball to assess who will win out.  The last four groups were a nightmare for predictions, as Aligulac was 2-6 (I was 3-5, Team Liquid 4-4) as a number of veteran SC2 pros failed to move forward (overall Aligulac is 4-8; TL is 7-5).  From past experience Aligulac is accurate about two-thirds of the time, so the results here seem like an anomaly.  As always, if you notice any errors or omissions, please let me know.

 

Group G

MorroW vs Hydra - unsurprisingly Hydra is the favourite (79%), and given that he's never lost to a foreigner in HOTS (56-0) I see no hope for the Swedish Terran

ShoWTimE vs iAsonu - the German player gets the odds (73%) and has been dominant in PvZ of late (15-2), with wins over Serral, TLO, and TargA; iAsonu plays in the insular Chinese and Taiwanese scene so he's hard to judge--he loses to the best Protoss players there, but the Protoss scene isn't particularly deep; given that I'll stick with Aligulac

Losers Match

MorroW vs iAsonu - the Swede is a slight favourite (57%); iAsonu has a good ZvT record, but those numbers are almost entirely based on playing just two players (XY and Ein); MorroW is 15-6 in the match-up of late, which includes wins over Snute and TargA, but he's also lost to players like Goswser and MiNiMaTh; all of this is to say it's a virtual coin flip, but I'll stick with MorroW

Winners Match

Hydra vs ShoWTimE - the odds aren't quite as overwhelming (62%) and the German did take a game off Hydra in last months go4sc2 finals...but I still see the Korean taking this group 4-0

Finals

MorroW vs ShoWTimE - the Protoss is given the advantage (61%); despite the German's record against Terran being mixed of late, he's losing to top Europeans whereas the Swede's positive TvP numbers have been drummed up against second-tier players, so I'll stick with ShoWTimE

 

Both Aligulac and I see Hydra and ShoWTimE going through.  I'd like to see someone push Hydra, but I'm not expecting it.  I'm also leery of judging iAsonu's form since we rarely get to see him play and it's much easier for him to study his opponents than the other way around.

 

Group H
iaguz vs MacSed - the Aussie is the favourite here (55%); iaguz's TvP is all over the place, with he and MacSed splitting their last meeting at the KungFu Cup in November; MacSed does quite well in the insular scene he typically plays in and the Gimli-Terran tends to play predictably so I'll take the "upset" here

Welmu vs HuK - the Canadian is the slight favourite (51%) in the most volatile of mirror match-ups; HuK is 15-2 in his most recent PvP's while Welmu is 13-3, but for the most part neither have played the best foreigners; I think the Finn is a better player at his peak, but I don't think he's there right now so I'll give this to the always aggressive HuK
Losers Match
Welmu vs iaguz - the Finn is a slight favourite (56%), but I think that's conservative and that iaguz will lose convincingly; if Aligulac is right and this is Welmu vs MacSed the Finn remains the favourite (56%)

Winners Match

HuK vs MacSed - the Canadian gets the odds (59%) and I see no reason to disagree; if this match is  iaguz vs HuK then the Canuck remains a slight favourite (52%), but with recent wins over Xenocider and MarineLorD he seems primed to win that contest if it occurs

Finals

Welmu vs MacSed - the Finn is favoured (56%) and if on point he should win; if Aligulac is right then this will be Welmu vs iaguz with the Finn given the same edge as above

 

Both Aligulac and I have HuK and Welmu advancing.  I don't feel very confident about the selection however--no player has strong odds over any other.  Add PvP volatility and the advantage iaguz has of preparing for only one match-up, there's a lot of room for upsets.

 

So far there are 7 Zergs, 3 Terrans, and 2 Protoss through to the R16, with two of three Koreans making it through (RIP viOLet).  Five players are going to make their R16 debuts (Kane, PiG, FireCake, Has, and Serral).  The most competitive groups thus far were C and D.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (Groups C, D, E, and F)

 

With four more Groups this week it's time to go back to the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will move on to the Round of 16 (you can see the groups here).  Predictions from the first two groups were 2-2.  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know (I have seen a couple comments on the colour scheme; if your eyes bleed reading it, #SC2passion).

Group C

Bunny vs MajOr - with the power of Pokémon MajOr gets the slight edge (54%) against his Danish opponent; both players have been incredibly dominant in TvT against other foreign Terrans, although MajOr does have a couple of inexplicable losses against CealeR; it's too close to call so I'll stick with Aligulac

viOLet vs MaNa - not surprisingly the Korean gets a significant edge (61%); the days of MaNa being one of the best foreigners are long past, but by the same token viOLet is the least intimidating Korean in Premier; at the end of the day the Korean should win, but an on-form MaNa is certainly capable of upsetting him (despite that, I'll stick with Aligulac)

Losers Match

MaNa vs Bunny - interestingly, MaNa is the slight favourite (51%), but both players have excellent percentages in the matchup and both have defeated the other within the past four months; I prefer the "upset" here; incidentally, should MaNa face MajOr instead, the Mexican is the favourite (57%)

Winners Match

viOLet vs MajOr - the Mexican is a heavy favourite (66%), although their last 6 series are split down the middle (3-3); viOLet has been vulnerable to foreign Terrans of late (besides losing to MajOr, he's lost to qxc and MaSa), so I'll stick with the odds

Finals

viOLet vs Bunny - the Danish Terran gets the edge (58%), and despite him getting crushed of late by Korean Zergs, I'll stick with him here; if this match follows Aligulac completely then MaNa would again lose to viOLet

 

Aligulac has MajOr and viOLet moving forward, whereas I have Bunny instead of the Korean player.

 

Group D

Happy vs PiG - the odds are closer than I expected, but Happy remains the favourite (57%); PiG has a fantastic ZvT record, but those wins have come at the expense of players below Happy's level; the Russian faces a steady diet of European Zergs as good (or better) than PiG and enjoys an impressive record, so there's no need to go outside the odds here

TargA vs Kane - I don't know how much the Canadian's hectic travel schedule will impact his play, but he's a heavy underdog (73%); Kane has had limited success against top Europeans, so I'll stick with the odds

Losers Match

Kane vs PiG - interestingly, PiG is almost as big a favourite (71%) as TargA, but in this case I don't think the difference is justified; I expect it will be close, but I'll give it to the Australian

Winners Match

Happy vs TargA - the Russian gets very slight odds (51%), and while I think Happy is a better overall player, his predictability is something TargA has exploited in the past, so the match is a true coin flip (I will stick with the odds, however)

Finals

PiG vs TargA - the Norwegian is a slight favourite (51%), but I think that's generous to PiG and believe TargA will take the series without too much trouble; if Happy winds up here instead, he should take care of business against PiG again

 

Both Aligulac and I have Happy and TargA going through.

 

Group E

ForGG vs Sen - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (72%), and the last foreign Zergs he's lost too are both retired (VortiX and LiveZerg); Sen did beat Bomber back in August, but from his overall track record that's clearly an anomaly

puCK vs FireCake - the American is a strong favourite (62%); at a guess I think puCK will make a ton of stalkers and FireCake will go swarm hosts, but that aside, the American's PvZ results are inconsistent, but include beating good players, while the French player hasn't beaten a top Protoss since 2013, so I'll stick with the odds

Losers Match

Sen vs FireCake - the Taiwanese Zerg is an overwhelming favourite (78%), although he did lose to Suppy back in June; FireCake doesn't beat top foreign Zergs so I'll stick with Aligulac

Winners Match

ForGG vs puCK - unsurprisingly ForGG is the favourite (86%), as he hasn't lost to a foreign Protoss since Season One back in 2014; the last time the American beat a Korean Terran at ForGG's level was his win over Polt back in 2013, so I it's safe to stick with the odds here

Finals

Sen vs puCK - the American is the underdog (45%), but Sen's fantastic ZvP record is built off the insular Chinese/Taiwanese scene; he also lost to puCK when they last played (almost a year ago); I think the American's inconsistency is likely to rear its head at some point so I'll stick with Aligulac

 

Both Aligulac and I have ForGG and Sen moving on.

 

Group F

NaNiwa vs Has - the Swede is the heavy favourite (70%), although we have to keep in mind he's only just returned to competitive play as the vagaries of PvP; Has' results are largely through the insular Chinese/Taiwanese scene, but his loss to HuK back in November adds some credence to the odds which I'll stick with

Serral vs Suppy - the Finn is the favourite (66%), and I'd like to think a full-time player has the edge over a part-time one like Suppy; both players have some puzzling losses in ZvZ, smacking of inconsistency and the difficulties of the mirror matchup, but there's nothing in the background to suggest Aligulac is wrong

Losers Match

Has vs Suppy - Has gets the odds (61%) and I see no reason to question that

Winners Match

Serral vs NaNiwa - the Swede gets the edge (65%) and if NaNiwa wasn't coming off retirement I'd leave it at that; Serral's ZvP is all over the place, but I think his form isn't what's in question, it's his opponent's--with the uncertainty I'll stick with the odds

Finals

Has vs Serral - the Finn gets the edge (55%) and there's no compelling reason to argue with that

 

Both Aligulac and I have NaNiwa and Serral moving forward.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (Groups A and B)

 

With Groups A and B taking place this weekend it's time to look into the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will move on to the Round of 16 (you can see the groups here).  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.

Group A

XiGua vs Astrea - the American gets a slight edge (51%); XiGua is well past his gamer prime at 28 (you can see more about the how pro gamers age here), and hasn't faced a serious non-Chinese, non-Korean opponent in HOTS, so his form is hard to judge; however, he's got much more tournament experience than Astrea; as for the "favourite", the Protoss' results aren't remarkable other than beating a declining Scarlett, so I'll give this to XiGua

Snute vs uThermal - not surprisingly Snute is the favourite at 64%; is there hope for the Dutch Terran? From the results of both it doesn't look like it, as while the Norwegian has lost to a few foreign Terrans of late, uThermal has dropped series against Zergs like Zanster, Kane, and Snitchables

Losers Match

Astrea vs uThermal - the Terran is an overwhelming favourite (69%), having beaten Astrea a month ago in the SEA OSC All-Stars; the American's only significant wins against foreign Terrans were back during the blink all-in phase with a very different map pool, so I'll stick with the odds

Winners Match

XiGua vs Snute - the Norwegian is a veritable certainty with an 80% chance; Snute's ZvZ has been off the charts lately (19-2) and I see no hope for the Chinese Zerg

Final

uThermal vs XiGua - Aligulac gives the match to uThermal (64%) and given the paucity of data on XiGua against anyone other than the thin Chinese Terrans I'll go with it.

 

This would mean Snute and uThermal move on, which stays the same even sticking religiously to Aligulac's predictions: if Astrea beats XiGua the fallout is: Snute beats the Protoss player (82%), uThermal still defeats XiGua and then Astrea.

 

Group B

TLO vs Kelazhur - a nice match for TLO as he's a 70% favourite and there's nothing to suggest the Brazilian can pull off an upset

Polt vs Jim - as expected Polt is the overwhelming favourite (77%) and I see no reason to argue with that

Loser's Match

Jim vs Kelazhur - Jim is the overwhelming favourite (71%), with the only blot on his record being a loss to iaguz back in WCS Premier last year--I'll stick with the odds, however

Winner's Match

Polt vs TLO - the Korean is slightly less favoured (66%), but since losing three times to Scarlett at Red Bull back in June, Polt has only dropped one match against a foreign Zerg (going 24-1), so he'll win here

Finals

TLO vs Jim - the Chinese Protoss is a heavy favourite (63%) and there's nothing in TLO's recent ZvP matches to suggest an upset

 

We should see Polt and Jim advancing.

 

For those who missed it, there was an ESL/Blizzard boondoggle drawing the WCS groups initially, so here's how things have changed from the first official announcements:

Astrea, XiGua and uThermal moved from Group C to one with Snute (Group H)

Kane and PiG moved from the all-Zerg Group H to one that includes TargA (Group A) and Happy (Group B)

MajOr and MaNa moved from Group A to one with Bunny (Group C) and viOLet (Group G)

Kelazhur and Jim have gone from Group E to one that includes Polt (Group B) and TLO (Group G)

NaNiwa and Suppy have gone from Group E to one that includes Serral (Group B) and Has (Group D)

Welmu and iaguz have moved from Group F to one with HuK (Group D) and MacSed (Group G)

The new Groups D and F have no prior pairings.

So who were the winners and losers of the shuffle?  Winners include Happy, who went from a group with two Koreans to one with none; Serral (who was also in Happy's original group), who enjoys the same advantage; HuK seems to have marginally improved as his group looks weaker; I think iaguz is doomed, but not having to play Hydra can only help; Welmu also no longer faces a Korean.

As for the losers, MajOr's and MaNa's groups are marginally more difficult; puCK's is much more difficult; FireCake now has a Korean to face, as does ShoWTimE; both Kelazhur and Jim now have to face Polt; viOLet (the least intimidating Korean) is in a much more difficult group; iAsonu now has to deal with Hydra.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)