WCS Challenger: Day One (EU/NA)

The first day of WCS Challenger EU/NA is in the books, while Challenger matches in Taiwan etc have completed.  In terms of predictions Aligulac did extremely well (8-1), while I got wrecked outside of NA (5-4).  Before I get into today's match-ups, Has and Sen both return to Premier, stomping their opponents 3-0 each.

WCS Europe

I was quite happy that Apollo/Kaelaris cast the Challenger matches, rather than the Madals/Pengwin combination from last season (their replays, incidentally, seem to have vanished from Youtube for some reason).  On the whole the series were not particularly dramatic, with the exception of TLO vs Nerchio, which is well worth checking out.  Most of the games, both in EU and NA, had the very simple dynamic where one engagement determined the outcome of the game.

Snute 3 Bly 1

Other than game one, Snute had no difficulty dealing with Bly's aggression.  Most of the problems for the Ukrainian involved his engagements rather than strategy.  A brief recap of the games:
Echo: Bly kept cancelling Snute's third while going mutas vs Snute's roaches; in response to being behind Snute tried for Nydus, but Bly scouted it immediately, shut it down and Snute tapped out
Coda: Bly went early ling/bane and it failed completely; the game dragged on for a bit, but Bly was hopelessly behind
Expedition Lost: Bly went for an early roach/baneling attack, but Bly wasted his banelings and his attack was crushed, putting him hopelessly behind
Iron Fortress: Bly went two-base muta (like game one), but he was late in getting roaches and Snute simply ran over him before he'd made the transition

Welmu 2 Ret 3

My first failed prediction.  Despite the exciting score the series itself was not particularly dynamic--I'd argue the series was less one that Ret won and more one that Welmu lost (particularly his needless cheese in game three and terrible engagement in game two).  A look at the games (interesting note, Welmu did not go colossus in any of his games):
Coda: Ret went two-hatch before pool and Welmu used immortal-sentry to kill him before a meaningful muta transition
Vaani: Ret went for cheese with a proxy hatch (aiming for a spine rush), which Welmu accidentally saw immediately (Ret put it too close to the ramp); Ret took the gold, Welmu went phoenix, and lost the game when he lost his ground army while microing his phoenixes elsewhere (dying to roach/hydra)
Expedition Lost: Welmu went double proxy gate inside of Ret's base which was spotted immediately and crushed (a trend for the day, incidentally)
Echo: Ret went two-hatch before pool again, following up with a ling/roach attack to cancel the third; he got the cancel, but his army was crushed by Welmu's immortal-sentry army
Game five: Ret went for an early hydra/ling all-in that Welmu wasn't ready for

TLO 3 Nerchio 2

By far the best series of the day and the only match that Aligulac got wrong (here my instincts were to take TLO (as you can see in my prediction post), but I didn't and failed along with the odds).  The games:
Echo: an odd game as Nerchio won the initial ling engagement and then simply died to TLO's follow-up roach attack
Coda: featured a longer ling/bane period with TLO moving to roaches earlier again, this time just killing the third; Nerchio caught up, fell behind due to burrowed roach harass, but took a much better army engagement and that mixed with harass and infestor use won him the game
Expedition Lost: Nerchio went for mutas while TLO attacked with roach//bane (backdoor) and won (amusingly, TLO brought drones with the attack to make spores)
Vaani: both players were passive as they transitioned to roach; Nerchio won the first major engagement (aided by better upgrades), putting TLO fatally behind
Cactus Valley: TLO went 1/1 ling/roach against Nerchio's pure roach and completely steamrolled the Polish player

uThermal 1 Lilbow 3

Yet another fail for me, as the Dutch Terran made some critical errors in falling to Lilbow.  The games:
Coda: uThermal did tremendous damage with widowmine drops and harassment, leading to Lilbow going an all-in with two colossus (the Frenchman's strat du jour), which was deflected; Lilbow got back into the game with DTs, but was ultimately annihilated in the next army engagement
Iron Fortress: uThermal went for a widowmine drops again, but this time Lilbow shut them down(uThermal got way too committed to them), putting the Protoss so far ahead the end was never in doubt
Echo: Lilbow went for a two-colossus all-in which uThermal did not anticipate
Vaani: widowmine drop vs blink attack; the drop hit at the right time and did damage, but despite preparing for the blink all-in uThermal's wasn't able to manage his defence and lost

WCS NA

With Rotterdam still in the Netherlands, Gretorp joined Nathanias to cast the games.  I had mixed feelings about the latter in the previous season, but he's had months to catch up with the meta and was more on point this time around.

HuK 2 StarDust 3

The Canadian made this close and certainly could have won (illustrating the vulnerability of StarDust yet again), but ultimately HuK made more mistakes.  The games:
Coda: HuK went blink vs oracle into robo; while the latter didn't cause damage, HuK wound up ahead anyway; good harass from StarDust and a better main army engagement won him the game
Echo: both players opened the same way, except HuK pressured earlier; poor stalker control put StarDust ahead, but the Canadian used stargate play to even things up and then pull ahead with an earlier third, crushing the Korean in their main engagement
Vaani: HuK went for a proxy two-gate in StarDust's base which was scouted early and just like Welmu's above it failed utterly
Expedition Lost: HuK went DTs and StarDust had no idea until it was too late
Cactus Valley: both players opened up stargate, with HuK using a proxy; the players wound up roughly even, but pressure by HuK afterwards went very poorly and he never recovered from his over commitment

Kane3 PiLiPiLi 0

The Canadian was on form tonight as he read his opponent well and punished him at every opportunity.  The games:
Vaani: Kane went for some early lings to cancel the third and followed it up with roach/ling pressure that forced PiLiPiLi into a gateway all-in, dying to mutas before he could execute it
Coda: very passive beginning with PiLiPiLi opening with phoenix into an attack with gateway units; Kane saw it coming, held it off, got ahead, and ran him over with roach/hydra/ling (this was PiLiPiLi's best game, incidentally)
Iron Fortress: PiLiPiLi went stargate with a hidden third; Kane went into mutas and PiLiPiLi was too stretched out trying to defend all his bases and died

Hydra 3 Zeal 0

As expected, the least interesting series of the night.  The games:
Expedition Lost: Zeal went for an in-base proxy 2-gate as Hydra took a gold expand (which he cancelled once he spotted the proxy); like the other proxy gates today it failed, although Hydra's errors made it the most difficult of the holds
Echo: Hydra went two-hatch before pool and Zeal responded by fast-expanding and got completely stomped
Vaani: Hydra went for the gold expand and Zeal again tried to macro up; Hydra was messing around (building swarmhosts and ultras) and while this allowed Zeal to almost max out it really didn't matter

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Latin America/Taiwan Predictions

The brackets have been release for Copa America, which this season determines who gets the two Premier spots for Latin America.  With Aligulac as our guide, here's how it looks (unfortunately the specific matches aren't listed on TL yet, so I've made do with the round-robin predictor):

Group A
BLord
Erik
TerraN
Raivotar

Aligulac favours Erik and TerraN to make it through, which surprises me as BLord is the more familiar name.  BLord beat TerraN the last time they played (January), and generally has a more impressive track record, so I think he and Erik will win their group.

Group B
Catz
WiNgiAN
ByRada
Bush

Odds favour Catz and ByRada and I see no reason to argue.

Group C
Cham
SenDoh
ReasoN
XionS

Aligulac picks Cham and ReasoN by an overwhelming margin and I see no reason to argue.

Group D
JimRising
CealeR
Smile
OdiN

The odds give this to JimRising and OdiN; I think the latter could be upset here as he's not great in ZvT (granted, CealeR is worse in the match-up), so I'll slot Smile here.

Can anyone challenge Catz and JimRising from repeating as the men to face the Premier players?  Of the projected winners from above these three are the only ones with a reasonable chance:
ReasoN - 57% vs Catz (who he beat 2-0 in the first qualifier), 59% vs JimRising
Cham - 42% vs Catz, 45% vs JimRising
ByRada - 36% vs Catz (but he beat him 2-0 in their only meeting), 38% vs JimRising

I like to see fresh faces and I like Aligulac's notion that ReasoN will make it through; I'd normally pick Catz as the other player, but I think JimRising puts in more time so I'll give him the nod (assuming, of course, he isn't the one knocked out by ReasoN).  Can any of these Zerg players challenge MajOr or Kelazhur?  Aligulac says "no" emphatically; assuming both are on form they should have no problem with whoever they face (both won 3-0 last season).

In the Taiwan (plus Hong Kong & Macau) qualifier Slam and Cheetos qualified to face Has and Sen.  Slam was in WCS Premier in 2014 (season three), but was knocked out very early in the season one qualifier this year.  Cheetos I'm less familiar with and Challenger will be his biggest event to date.  As above, TL has not posted the direct match-ups, but given how seeding has been handled elsewhere it should be Has-Cheetos, Sen-Slam.  Here are the odds:

Has vs Cheetos - the Premier player is an overwhelming favourite (84%), although he only has a 2-1 record against his opponent
Sen vs Slam - the experienced Sen is heavily favoured (79%), with a dominating record against his opponent (23-12); it's worth remembering how Sen bombed out of Premier

Aligulac has the same players returning to Premier; I'd like to see Slam make it, but there's really no good reason to do so given his recent match history so I'll stick with the odds.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Challenger Predictions (EU/NA)

Yesterday Premier players from EU and NA picked their opponents for Challenger.  The selection lacked the errors of season one (thankfully), and featured some interesting choices, particularly in EU (Zergs fled from non-mirror match-ups).  It's worth keeping in mind that there's no place to hide in a best-of-five--you can't luck your way to a win.  I'd also note that whether a player struggled to qualify or not apparently has little bearing on how they'll do in Challenger (consider Polt, Snute, and TLO from last season).  That said, here are Aligulac's odds along with my thoughts and predictions:

EU
Bunny vs Beastyqt - a bit of an odd choice, as I think Bunny could have picked an easier opponent, but he has overwhelming odds to win (78%); the two have faced each other only once competitively (a BO1 that the Dane won), but more importantly Beastyqt simply doesn't have a great track record against top Terrans, so I don't see an upset here
ShoWTimE vs Elazer - this was an obvious selection for the German who has dominant odds (75%) against the young Polish player; interestingly, Elazer beat his opponent 3-1 in the Fragbite Masters a month ago, but that was before the swarmhost change
ForGG vs souL - you have to feel for the Polish player, who is given only a 2% chance to beat the Korean; if souL is looking for hope or inspiration he can think back to the time he beat MMA in September; that said, I don't see an upset here
Snute vs Bly - there were easier match-ups for the Norwegian to pick here (Ret comes to mind), but his 24-8 map score against the Ukrainian backs up his 66% odds; Bly is good in the mirror match-up and it has been a few months since his last loss to Snute, but I don't see him winning here
TLO vs Nerchio - this was an odd pick by the German, who had easier alternatives (eg Ret, who he beat in Challenger last season, among other Zerg possibilities); the Polish player is a huge favourite (77%); TLO has been very good in the match-up of late, but he hasn't beaten Nerchio since 2013 (he's 0-5 since in series), so an upset is quite likely
Serral vs Harstem - the Dutch player is favoured (57%), despite the Finn having a 5-1 record against him (including crushing him 3-0 last season in Challenger--granting that's before the patch); Harstem is a very inconsistent player, but Serral was very dependent on swarmhosts, so which element wins here?  I don't have a strong feeling either way so I'll retreat to the odds
FireCake vs Zanster - there was no chance the unpopular Frenchman was going to pick anything other than a Zerg opponent (due to the patch), but the Swede has to be ecstatic at the choice as he's slightly favoured (51%) and has beaten FireCake every time they've played (3-0)--he's also on an 11-0 win streak in ZvZ BO3/BO5s, so I like the Swede here
Welmu vs Ret - I consider the Finn a much better player, but Ret gets the odds (58%) and has a winning record between them (9-6); both have been good in the match-up of late, but the Dutch player hasn't made it to Premier since season two in 2013, so I'm going to stick with my instincts and pick the Finn
MaNa vs HeRoMaRinE - a bold pick by MaNa, although he was beyond the stage of easy picks; this is a rematch from Challenger where the German blew a 2-0 lead; the Polish player is slightly favoured (53%), with a dominant record against his opponent (14-6), but the German is an improving player and spends most of his time in the EPS playing TvP, so this could go his way (I'll stick with the odds, however)
uThermal vs Lilbow - the Frenchman is slightly favoured (51%), although the Dutch Terran is 2-1 vs his opponent and this is his best match-up (he's 18-1 in series of late, only losing to GunGFuBanda); Lilbow's PvT hasn't be great of late and I see no hope for him here
MorroW vs Petraeus - the Zerg player is favoured (64%), despite never beating the Swede (0-2); I like this pick by MorroW, as he's a former Zerg player, hates the TvP match-up (he nearly lost a sloppy series to BlinG in Challenger last season), and has been better than his opponent in TvZ of late (Petraeus has lost to players like Strelok, pre-patch!), so I think he'll win here
Happy vs MarineLorD - this was a bizarre pick by the Russian, which I assume was made because he didn't want to face a Protoss opponent (nearly losing to Majestic in Challenger last season perhaps on his mind); that said, Happy is favoured (61%) and has an impressive record against the French Terran (20-6); the latter has been hit and miss in the match-up (granting that he nearly beat ForGG in Challenger last season); the problem for the Russian is his robotic play--his tendency to pick one strategy and stubbornly stick with it, making him extremely vulnerable if MarineLorD can counter whatever it is he's doing, so I like the upset here
NaNiwa vs GunGFuBanda - I got the feeling everyone was trying to avoid the German Protoss player, but NaNiwa clearly didn't want to deal with elfi's cheese (memories of Has undoubtedly strong in his mind), so picked him anyway; the Swede is a slight favourite (51%), but the two have never played before and both are roughly in the same place in PvP; since he came out of retirement NaNiwa has only lost to Serral (pre-patch) and Has, so I'll stick with him here
TargA vs elfi - the Norwegian has to be pretty happy to face an opponent he's very familiar with (just like Kas in Challenger last season); he just has to survive the elfi cheese and move on, which is exactly what I and Aligulac foresee (61%); it's worth noting the Finn has a winning record against his opponent (7-4)

The odds and I agree on the following: Bunny, ShoWTimE, ForGG, Snute, Nerchio, Harstem, Zanster, MaNa, NaNiwa, and TargA.  We differ on Welmu (Aligulac picks Ret), uThermal (vs Lilbow), MorroW (vs Petraeus), and MarineLorD (vs Happy).

NA
Hydra vs Zeal - the Korean made the obvious choice and there's no chance (95%) of an upset here; Zeal is not a new player (he's been around since WOL, but has changed his name a number of times, aka Ruin, AiuR, etc), but he's never beaten a Korean
Kane vs PiLiPiLi - another obvious choice, the Canadian is heavily favoured (75%) and recently beat his opponent 4-1 in a showmatch; it's worth noting that PiLiPiLi is theoretically better in the match-up lately, but considering his opponents I don't think that means much
puCK vs Xenocider - the Protoss player is not favoured (47%) against the Terran, hasn't been great in PvT of late, but does have a slight edge head-to-head against Xenocider (7-6); I always think of puCK as a PvZ guy and I'll stick with the EG Terran
viOLet vs qxc - the beatable Korean is a heavy favourite (71%), and given that the American has been semi-retired it's hard to imagine him winning here (remember he lost 3-0 against Kane last season and that was just after he retired)
HuK vs StarDust - not surprisingly the Korean is favoured (62%), although he is someone foreigners can beat; if HuK was on-form I'd consider the upset, but it's only been the last week or two that he's started to beat good players and that's not enough of a track record to bet against the odds
Suppy vs Jaedong - I think the Tyrant is a beatable opponent, if Suppy was playing full-time, but he's not and the thumping he received in Premier last season was a great illustration of that; the Korean is a massive favourite (88%)
Astrea vs MaSa - given the circumstances, this is the best case scenario for the Protoss player, but he remains a huge underdog (78%); on the plus side, he has a winning record against the Canadian (2-1), but he hasn't played since Premier (!) so I expect a one-sided stomp for MaSa

The odds and I agree completely here: Hydra, Kane, Xenocider, viOLet, StarDust, Jaedong, and MaSa.

Copa America (the Latin American qualifier) is in the books.  Day one opened with 168 players (!) participating (far more than any of the NA qualifiers).  There was no English cast, which I found a puzzling choice given that it's a great way for players to market themselves outside the local scene.  Interestingly, the Portuguese streams had bigger numbers, so I'm wondering if the Brazilian scene is bigger than the rest of Latin America at the moment.  At any rate, the biggest surprise on day one was Catz being knocked out by Portuguese player ReasoN (who came 2nd in the Brazilian nationals just a month ago)--the same thing happened to Catz last year when ByRada knocked him out of the first day of the qualifiers.  Here are the players who made it through from day one:

Zerg (6): Cham, ReasoN, Erik, Raivotar, JimRising, ByRada
Terran (1): CealeR
Protoss (1): wiNgiAN

Both Cham and JimRising were in the grand finals of Copa America last year, while Erik, CealeR, and wiNgiAN all made it to the main part of the feeding tourneys.  Raivotar was the biggest surprise, as he hasn't appeared in the competitive scene since September and has almost no professional track record.

On day two 133 players participated, and this time Catz cruised through to qualify.  Here's the full list of qualifiers:
Zerg (3): Catz, BLord, OdiN
Terran (4): SenDoh, TerraN, Smile, Bush
Protoss (1): XionS

Both BLord and Catz were in the Grand Finals last year (so all the players from that tournament who could qualify have done so); SenDoh is another player who made it to the main part of the feeder tourneys.  As for the others, OdiN has been around forever, but without results to show for it; Bush has also been around since WOL, earning top-four in the Brazilian championship last month; XionS is another WOL-era player (his one significant result was back in 2012).  TerraN hasn't participated in much and is relatively new; MYI's Smile has been a bit more active, but has no results to speak of (there's a glitch in finding him in Aligulac, as he's currently not searchable by name despite being on the site).

It's a mix of old and new for Copa America, with a Zerg dominated R16 forthcoming to see who will face Kelazhur and MajOr in Challenger.  JimRising and Catz made it last season, so stand as the favourites, but I won't do specific predictions until the brackets go up.  Just for interests sake, here's the other players listed by earnings: Cham, BLord, XionS, ReasoN, Erik, Bush, Byrada, and wiNgiAN (the rest have none).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

The first balance patch for LOTV has come out, with a buff to the Adept, Immortal, Tempest, and Lurker, while the Cyclone got a very slight nerf.  Unfortunately, despite the changes Protoss players have essentially stopped playing LOTV, so it's going to be very difficult for Blizzard to figure out if things have improved or not (given the changes don't prevent early Terran and Zerg pushes, I suspect not).

Speaking of balance patches, only a week after the long awaited swarmhost nerf, Blizzard is already fretting over Zerg.  This strikes me as bizarre, as in tournament play there's no sign of serious imbalance in the results--I can't recall a racial balance whine getting this kind of response before without data to back it up.  Here are the results in WCS/GSL since the change:
GSL
ZvT 2-1 ZvP 0-1 (this result is believed to be a result of match-fixing, see below)
SSL
ZvT 1-0 PvZ 0-1
SEA (R16+)
ZvT 3-2 ZvP 3-7
NA (R16+)
ZvT 3-4 ZvP 6-7
EU (R16+)
ZvT 2-6 ZvP 12-11
China (R12+)
ZvT 2-0 ZvP 4-1
Taiwan (R8+)
ZvT 2-2 ZvP 3-0
Total
ZvT 15-15 ZvP  28-28

There's not a huge sample size from Korea, and a few regional results are skewed, but it's far too early to be alarmed (or to buff the unit).  If we can wait two years to fix the swarmhost, I think we can give the current change more time.  I've been enjoying the return to dynamic Zerg play, particularly now that tempests don't hard counter broodlords.  It appears as though Blizzard has backed away from changing the unit for the moment.

Speaking of Zerg, there's a really interesting strategy flowchart for all match-ups via Zervas that's worth checking out, although keep in mind its from before the swarmhost change.

Although I discussed it previously, it's worth reiterating the odd exceptions that Blizzard made to allow Jaedong and StarDust to play the NA qualifiers from Korea (and without GM accounts for the latter).  These exceptions go against the rulebook as laid out, but they are official exceptions (however against the spirit of the region lock they are).  It's worth noting that PengWin is playing from Switzerland, but he also requested an exception long before the qualifier (unlike sWs, although he was allowed in once his exclusion was brought to light).  The long and short of it is that WCS needs a true region lock, but at the moment this is the system we have (the topic was debated on Remax, btb).

There has been yet more betting drama in Korea, this time from a Code A match in the GSL as bets were cancelled for Creator's surprise win over Soulkey.  The number of incidents is starting to get a bit ridiculous--I have to wonder how related they are to the low pay for Korean pros.

There's a very long treatise on the economy in SC2 which a number of pros have agreed with and promoted.  I encourage reading the entire thing, but I do think the odds of Blizzard changing something already implemented into LOTV at this point is virtually zero.  I believe the problems illustrated by the post will be addressed in other ways without changing the 12 worker start (my sentiments were echoed on Remax, incidentally--link above).

Rich Stanton at Eurogamer writes that as someone who road the early WOL-train, he's not someone who will follow LOTV because he (personally) will never be good enough at the game.  He believes the high skill ceiling of the game will appeal to current SC2 fans, but will not attract new ones, implying LOTV would be more effective if the skill ceiling was lowered.  It's an interesting perspective, but I think his assumption is hard to justify (not that he attempts to justify it).  Rob Zacny at Rock, Paper, Shotgun makes a very similar argument, but believes Archon mode and the new economy might make it more newbie friendly.  I have issues with their sentiments: I don't think other eSports are "easier"--certainly the pros in those scenes would disagree that they are (and if they were, players would much more successfully transition from eSport to eSport, but that's almost never the case unless they are related--ala RTS to RTS).  To my mind, the issue for SC2 is that the game has a comprehension gap for casuals--by that I mean, it takes some time to understand what you are seeing.  If you've played a MOBA, it doesn't matter which one you watch because they all function in a similar way so are mutually comprehensible.  CS:GO also has an easy concept to follow, but that knowledge barrier for SC2 newbies makes it much harder to sell if you haven't played the game.

Speaking of viewership, Rifkin (from Basetradetv) has challenged the idea that European viewership is the be-all, end-all of the SC2 foreign scene (citing this to make his point; I believe his comments are from Remax, but it may have been from The Late Game, I can't recall).  The idea isn't so much that the NA and EU scene have the same viewership, as clearly the latter has a bigger audience, but that the NA audience is still significant and shouldn't be ignored by tournament planners.  His comments agree with my tiny slice of the scene, as NA fans form the slight majority of my audience (53%; followed by Europeans, particularly those from Germany, the UK, and Sweden).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Qualifiers: Final Days

The third NA qualifier (with 84 participants) featured a StarDust who was at last back on form, overcoming a stumbling MaSa to qualify; on the other side, Scarlett went on a good run before getting run over by PiLiPiLi.

There was a little drama as Bails ran into Internet problems and was disqualified (ala EnDerr in SEA).  It's also worth noting that sWs was allowed to play at last (both here and the final qualifier).  Here are the notables who fell:

R64: Drunkenboi, Goswser
R32: State, JonSnow, Neeb
R16: desRow, Semper
R8: Intense, Bails, Illusion
Qualifier: Scarlett, MaSa

The final qualifier saw the most sign-ups since Day One (93), with players desperately jostling one another for the final spot.  In the end, MaSa qualified at last, beating Scarlett who looked more like herself than she had earlier in the other qualifiers.  She mentioned, incidentally, that she'll be attending the season two finals in Toronto (an fyi for all Scarlett fans).

The final day left a number of people on the outside looking in.  Here are some notables:

R64: Neeb, State, NonY, Goswser
R32: sWs, Drunkenboi, Illusion
R16: JonSnow
R8: desRow, Semper, Intense
R4: Bails
Final: Scarlett

Three Protoss, three Terrans, and one Zerg ultimately made it through, including both Koreans (meaning that it's likely that 5 of the 8 NA representatives in Premier will be from Korea--the spectre of 2014's absurdity is not far off).  There were four qualifiers from last season that did not make it this time around: Guitarcheese didn't participate (he hasn't played competitively since losing in Challenger last season), while State, Bails, and Semper were all unable to break through.  As for which players played the best throughout and did not succeed, here's what a "last chance" list would look like if it existed (using the a similar point system to EU):
Bails (195) - was in Challenger last season
Scarlett (180)
Intense (180) - perhaps best known for winning one of the Breakout Invitationals last year
Semper (115) - Challenger last season
JonSnow (110) - came 3rd in the Copa America Grand Finals in the fall
NoRegreT (100) - newer player with a reputation for cheese
Illusion (90) - last played competitively in August
Patchtoss (85)
Hyperbowl (80)
State (75) - Challenger last season
SirRobin (70) - reasonably popular streamer whose play is improving
Moosegills (70) - he's been around for a long time, but doesn't have many results
Drunkenboi(60) - has made it to Challenger twice before
Trace (60)
desRow (60) - now mostly known for Remax and streaming, his mechanics are still good enough for NA
Epic (60) - newer player who seems to be on the upswing

It's good to see some new faces among those who entered the WCS system from WOL.  I wonder if hyperbowl is a smurf (I have the same curiosity for polylol and startails), as there's no professional history for him beyond two days in the qualifiers (it reminds me of roxi's run from season one in EU back in 2013--the only time that name ever played anything).  NonY played under an alternate name (Enoenwai), albeit a known alias for him.

Speaking of older NA players, Goswser crashed and burned for the second season in a row (ViBE, NonY, and Neeb also failed to show much in the qualifiers, but I don't think the first two put the same amount of work into it, while the latter has switched races).  In fairness to the ROOT player, he lost to good players (Jaedong, qxc, State, and sWs), but he's nowhere near the form he displayed two or three years ago.  I wonder if this will be the end of the line for him, or if he'll come back to try and qualify for season three?

As fun as the qualifiers were, I do hope there's more thought put into how the bracket is seeded in season three.  Why JonSnow and SirRobin played in the R128 on the final day is a mystery to me (and that's hardly the first odd pairing early in the qualifiers).

The final European qualifier was a good one.  Petraeus, the man who kept failing at the finish line, finally stormed through, losing just one game in his four straight victories (beating the moribund sLivko as well as three Protoss': Theo, Eiki, and Verdi).  On the flipside, Harstem finally made it as well, surviving an early loss to Verdi before eventually beating the Russian Protoss in the final match (he also beat Jeysen, DeMuslim, Namshar, Eiki, and Cooltea).

In terms of predictions, Aligulac and I both got Petraeus right, but neither picked Harstem.  With all the qualifiers finished, we have the following players going into Challenger (the players in pink made it to Challenger last season):
Zerg (6): Bly, Ret, Nerchio, Zanster, Elazer, Petraeus
Terran (4): HeRoMaRinE, Beastyqt, MarineLorD, souL
Protoss (4): GunGFuBanDa, elfi, Lilbow, Harstem

A number of participants from last season did not get in: PtitDrogo, Majestic, PsiOniC, BlinG, Kas, and Starbuck (so clearly the biggest turnover was among Protoss players).

Both SEA and China regions have already held their challenger matches.  The former featured a huge upset, as the largely unknown NXZ beat R16 player PiG in a close series (3-2).  Iaguz had a much easier time dispatching Blysk (3-0).  In China, Jim and iAsonu return to Challenger, this time joined by TooDming (who took out XiGua 3-2) and Mystery (who upset MacSed 3-1).  I like that new blood is being pumped into the scene (particularly relative unknowns like NXZ and Mystery).  The other regions either haven't started their qualifiers (Copa America) or are still in process (Taiwan etc).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Qualifiers: America Day Two and Europe Day Three

Only 79 players signed up for the second day of the NA qualifiers, a large decrease from the first day  (and surprising given that Jaedong was already through the bracket).  It was funny to see I-only-turtle-mech Avilo pulling out RuFF builds in the qualifier (the latter did not participate).  The two qualifiers were qxc (beating Bails; apparently qxc is the only guy who can take time off and still win), and Zeal (a Canadian Protoss player who beat NoRegreT).  Here are the names of note who failed to make it:

R128: JonSnow (this after making it to the final on day one)
R64: Neeb, Illusion, Scarlett, Semper, StarDust
R32: MaSa, Goswser, ViBE
R16: State
R8: Intense
Qualifying match: Bails

Incredibly StarDust bombed from the qualifier again (losing to WArchief this time).  In the two qualifiers the former WCS Europe champion has won a single BO3--he can't blame the lag in Korea given that both Jaedong and State are playing from there and performed better.  I have to think he isn't taken his opposition serious enough.

The third day of WCS Europe (with 165 players participating, the first participation dip in the region), was a very good one, with dynamic play and a lot of great matches.  Lilbow, Zanster, Elazer, and souL made it through.  Of the four the two Polish players are the biggest surprises, as neither has significant results outside smaller cups (the Terran had the easiest path through the brackets).  This will be Zanster's second time in WCS Challenger (his last was season one in 2014), while Lilbow returns to Challenger from last season.  As for the losers, most significantly were DeMuslim and Petraeus, losing the final for the second time each, but here are all the notables:

R128: Theo, sLivko, Stephano
R64: NightEnD, KrasS, Lambo, PsiOniC
R32: JonnyREcco, Tefel, Miniraser, PtitDrogo, Dayshi
R16: Cooltea, Harstem, SortOf, Majestic
Qualifying match: DeMuslim, Petraeus, Kas

The "Last Chance" qualifier remains for EU and has already been determined (via points given depending how well each player did).  Here's the list:

Protoss (7): Cooltea, Eiki, Harstem, NightEnD, Theo, Jeysen, Verdi
Zerg (6): Petraeus, JonnyREcco, Namshar, SortOf, Guru, sLivko
Terran (3): DeMuslim, Lillekanin, Kas

For some reason French Protoss player DnS declined his invitation (which is why sLivko is here).  There are four players who stand well above the others in terms of performance: Petraeus, Cooltea, JonnyREcco, and DeMuslim.  It's a double-elimination bracket, so players can lose a series and still qualify.  Before I get to predictions, here's a reminder of who has qualified so far (those in Challenger for the first time are in italics):
Zerg (5): Bly, Ret, Nerchio, Zanster, Elazer
Terran (4): HeRoMaRinE, Beastyqt, MarineLorD, souL
Protoss (3): Lilbow, elfi, GunGFuBanda

As for the odds going into the final qualifier:
Petraeus vs sLivko - the odds are 70% for the former, who has never lost to the Russian
Theo vs NightEnD - the wily Romanian is favoured (73%)
Eiki vs Lillekanin - interestingly, the Dane is given slight odds (52%), despite losing to the Norwegian in the qualifiers--I believe Eiki will win here
SortOf vs DeMuslim - the Swede is favoured (59%), but the Brit has been performing better and I'd take the upset here
JonnyREcco vs Verdi - somehow these two SC2 vets have never played one another before; the Brit gets a slight edge (52%)
Jeysen vs Harstem - these two played twice already in the qualifiers, splitting their series, but the popular Dutch player is a heavy favourite (72%)
Namshar vs Kas - the affable Ukrainian is favoured (77%), but he was pretty sloppy losing to Elazer so an upset is possible
Guru vs Cooltea - the Russian Protoss gets the edge (67%), and performed better overall in the qualifiers, but all the underlying numbers (score against one another and form in the match-up) favour the Polish Zerg (related to the old swarmhost I wonder?)

Assuming my predictions above are correct:
Petraeus vs NightEnD - the Zerg is heavily favoured (73%)
Eiki vs DeMuslim - the Terran is heavy favoured (70%) and has won each time he's played the Norwegian; if this is SortOf vs Lillekanin (as per Aligulac) the Swede is heavily favoured (74%)
JonnyREcco vs Harstem - the odds are slightly in the Dutch player's favour (57%), with their record against one another very close (6-5)
Kas vs Cooltea - the Terran is favoured (66%), and has a dominating record over the Russian (4-1)

From there:
Petraeus vs DeMuslim - the Zerg has the edge (62%), although DeMuslim is in better form (the two have never met in a tournament), so I like him here; if this follows Aligulac then SortOf is the opponent and the edge remains for Petraeus (65%)
Harstem vs Kas - the Ukrainian has a very slight edge (51%), with all the underlying numbers supporting him

Leading to:
DeMuslim vs Kas - bizarrely, the Ukrainian is favoured (66%), despite a poor record against his opponent (4-9) and worse current form in TvT, so I take the "upset"; if this follows Aligulac and this is Petraeus, he has the edge (59%)

So by my predictions DeMuslim qualifies first, while Aligulac gives it to Petraeus.  There is, however, a losers bracket to consider.  To avoid making this post overly long, Aligulac has Kas getting the second spot, while I give it to Petraeus (mind you, it would be something if the latter failed to qualify again despite reaching the final match to do so repeatedly).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Qualifiers: Day One in America, Day Two in Europe

Predictions for SEA were thrown out the window when EnDerr was unable to participate due to Internet problems.  KingKong's lack of practice was evident as he lost to both Blysk and Frustration (the latter being particularly surprising).  Blysk sailed through to qualify while the relatively unknown (outside SEA, presumably) NXZ joined him.  They'll face off against PiG and iaguz on Saturday (April 18th).  While the specific combinations haven't officially been posted, I assume PiG will play NXZ and iaguz will play Blysk.  If that assumption is correct, PiG is a 78% favourite (having beaten his fellow Aussie 2-0 in both their last BO3s), while iaguz is a much slighter favourite (53%), having lost to Blysk just a month ago in the Kung Fu Cup.

Day one of the American qualifier was a mix of surprises and the expected (101 players participated, a drop from last season, but no doubt some players were dodging the Koreans).  Jaedong didn't lose a single game going through a fairly easy bracket; Xenocider also qualified, beating out a sloppy MaSa.  In terms of surprises, Drunkenboi beat StarDust (as well as Illusion, who has returned to the scene).  JonSnow had a fairly easy path to the final, but couldn't overcome the Tyrant.  None of the part-time or recently returning SC2 made it through (Scarlett, ViBE, Goswser, qxc, etc).  Here's some of the fallen:

R128: ViBE
R64: Goswser
R32: Scarlett, Tilea, qxc, StarDust, Bails
R16: Illusion, State, Neeb, Intense
R8: Drunkenboi, Semper

An interesting note attached to the new Korean participants: some are asking whether Jaedong or StarDust needed to be in the US to play in the qualifiers.  If random Tweets are correct, they can play from Korea if permitted, which seems ridiculous in a supposedly region locked system (and given the rulebook), but I doubt Blizzard will disqualify them.  I'm not clear on why Blizzard has made an exception, but without clarification it smacks of favouritism (with StarDust benefiting by proxy).  For me, if you're going to allow players from other regions to participate in WCS (from Korea or otherwise), then their ladder play should be largely restricted to the local scene and they should reside there--otherwise the players are doing nothing to benefit the region they're profiting from.  It will be interesting to see what, if anything, is said about this by Blizzard.  [A brief update: Blizzard's statement about the issue suggests that so long as a player has their visa and residency requirements ready, they can participate.]

Day two of the European qualifiers is over (190 players participated in what brackets that turned very soft).  Nerchio had a relatively easy path to qualify (JonnyREcco and NightEnD were his biggest opponents); elfi had it even easier (beating DeMuslim to qualify); while Ret's was the easiest of all (neither Namshar or Cooltea are considered top Europeans); MarineLorD had to do a little work to qualify (beating Dayshi, Stephano, and the rising Protoss player Theo).  As for those of note who fell:
R256: Adonimus
R128: Elazer
R64: Starbuck, Lambo, Majestic, Strelok, Miniraser, BlinG, Kas, PtitDrogo, Tefel
R32: Lilbow, Dayshi, Petraeus
R16: Harstem (beat Jeysen in the rematch from day one, but lost to NightEnD), Zanster, Stephano, sLivko, KrasS
R8: NightEnD, DeMuslim (took out Zanster and Lilbow), Theo

There was a lot of hype surrounding Stephano's participation today.  While the former EG player still occasionally participates in tournaments (Home Story Cup X was the most recent in November), he's a full-time student and SC2 is not his focus.  How did he do?  Despite making it to the R16, he beat no one notable (Snovski and Bouli have collectively won just over $300).  That said, given how the brackets worked out today he should feel good about his chances of making it to Challenger and I wouldn't be surprised if he participates in the remaining qualifiers.  Among those who failed to qualify, I thought DeMuslim's run was the most impressive.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Qualifiers: Predictions for SEA and Day One in Europe

I watched today's first EU qualifier (195 players participated, a drop from opening day in season one; I was surprised to see AbomB participating).  Today was the first time to see how much Terran mech would benefit against Zerg from the changes to swarmhosts, but traditional mech players went down early (GoOdy (R128) and Strelok (R64)), while Beastyqt went through, so it's hard to tell.  A number of fan favourites/former Premier players fell in the bracket:

R64: Harstem, BlinG, Majestic, Ret, NightEnD, PtitDrogo
R32: SortOf, PsiOniC, Tefel, Miniraser, Starbuck, Elazer, Adominus, sLivko
R16: Lilbow, elfi
R8 (qualifying round): Nerchio (who threw a fit between games), MarineLorD, Petraeus (once again narrowly missing out), and JonnyREcco

In terms of surprise performances, Jeysen made it to the R16 (taking out Harstem and souL); Deathmask also made it to the R16 (beating Ret)

As for the qualifiers:
GunGFuBanda makes it to Challenger after suffering the ignominy of being suspended last season; he notably beat Nerchio, Majestic, and PtitDrogo
HeRoMaRinE makes it again with an impressive win over MarineLorD; he also beat Lambo
Beastyqt returns to Challenger, taking out Petraeus and Elazer
Bly also returns to Challenger, beating elfi and JonnyREcco

I watched some of the first day of SEA qualifiers last night to determine the R16 participants (PiG and iaguz aren't required the play the qualifier, while KingKong, EnDerr, Blysk, and NXZ were automatically seeded into it).  Below is a list of last season's participants (excluding the above) and  they are ordered from the best finish to worst (those in green made it through again):

DemiLove - made it through
PsiArc - made it through
Lobo - made it through
Frustration - took out mOOnGLaDe on his way through
Law - made it through
Vaisravana - put in the loser's bracket by Azure and promptly lost to Seither to be eliminated
Fenner - knocked down to the loser's bracket by DevianT, but made it far enough in that bracket to qualify (he lost to Wally towards the end of it)
StriKE - after losing to Wally he gave Fenner a walkover in the loser's bracket and is out
Wally - beat StriKE to qualify
Vivid - made it through

New additions from last year's R16 are:
Azure (he beat Vaisravana and Law before getting knocked to the loser's bracket where he gave Law a walkover)
Albion (sent to the losers bracket and beat Vivid and Law on his way through)
Alopex (sent to the losers bracket by Law and beat no one noteworthy to qualify)
Probe (knocked to the losers bracket by Lobo, he took out mOOnGLaDe before giving Law a walkover)

It was interesting to see mOOnGLaDe attempting the qualifier after making the transition to caster (it did not go well).  Other part-time or semi-retired players (like MightyKiwi) also crashed and burned, which is a good sign for the scene.  Fenner struggled quite a bit and I wonder what happened to the form he showed in 2014.  I'm not an expert on the SEA scene as I rarely see their tournaments (time zone issues), but there's not much reason to doubt that one of KingKong, EnDerr, or Blysk will make it through today's qualifier, but here's how Aligulac see's things going (keep in mind how insular the SEA scene is--these players all know each other very well; I don't know if Blysk is playing from Europe and it's worth noting KingKong hasn't played a competitive game since January, making him ripe for being beaten):

EnDerr vs Frustration - 71% in favour of the Zerg, who is 6-2 in series against the Protoss
Law vs Azure - essentially a dead heat for the odds, but I like the Terran here who won their last BO3
NXZ vs Fenner - the popular streamer is a huge underdog (22%), and given his struggles last night I see no reason to argue
DemiLove vs Wally - the Indian player is favoured (60%), although the two have split their BO3's in HOTS (3-3)
KingKong vs Vivid - the Korean is the overwhelming favourite (96%)
Albion vs Lobo - the Japanese player is slightly favoured (56%), although the better known player from Singapore has a much more impressive track record and I believe will win out
Blysk vs Probe - while Blysk is only slightly favoured (58%), and I see no reason for him to lose here
PsiArc vs Alopex - the Japanese Terran is favoured (66%), although they split their last two BO5's (both were played in March), but PsiArc was more impressive last night

Winner's Bracket

EnDerr vs Azure - the Philippine Zerg is again a huge favourite (75%); if this is Law instead then the odds are even more stilted (84%)
NXZ vs DemiLove - the Aussie Zerg is favoured (60%), and has won every BO3 the two have ever played (3-0)
KingKong vs Lobo - once again the Korean is a huge favourite (89%); if this is Albion the odds are a little kinder (79%)
Blysk vs PsiArc - the Terran is slightly favoured (52%), but lost his only ever BO3 vs Blysk a month ago and I have to lean towards the more accomplished player

EnDerr vs NXZ - the Aussie is the underdog (41%), although he's beaten EnDerr the only times they've played (2-0); I still lean towards the odds here
KingKong vs Blysk - the Korean is favoured (65%), and has never lost to Blysk; if this is PsiArc the odds are similar (66%)

EnDerr vs KingKong - it's like a broken record, but the Korean is favoured (70%); the two have traded their last six BO3s and I have to wonder if KingKong's inactivity makes him ripe for an upset

Loser's Bracket
Frustration vs Law - the Protoss is favoured (61%); if this is Azure instead the odds are essentially split, but the Terran has a dominant record so I'd give it to him
Fenner vs Wally - the latter is favoured (59%), and just beat Fenner last night
Vivid vs Albion - the Japanese player is heavily favoured (75%); Lobo is also favoured if Aligulac is right and he's here (59%)
Probe vs Alopex - the Protoss is favoured (58%) despite having a slight losing record to his opponent (4-5)

Frustration vs Azure - as referenced above the Terran is favoured here
Wally vs DemiLove - a rematch from above
Albion vs Lobo - yet another rematch where Aligulac and I differ on who moves forward
Probe vs PsiArc - the Terran is a slight favourite (52%), despite having lost his only matches against Probe (0-2); I still like the odds here; if this is Blysk he's even more favoured (58%)

Azure vs DemiLove - the Indian player is favoured (65%), despite a losing record against the Terran (4-5)
Lobo vs PsiArc - the Terran is heavily favoured (71%); if this is Albion it's a slightly better edge (74%); if this is Blysk he's favoured in each scenario (62% and 55%)

DemiLove vs NXZ - the Aussie is favoured (60%), and has a dominant record against his opponent (7-2)
PsiArc vs Blysk - a rematch that Aligulac and I see slightly differently

NXZ vs Blysk - slight edge to the Protoss (52%); if this is PsiArc then he is similarly favoured (52%)

Blysk vs EnDerr - the Zerg is slightly favoured (52%), and I think EnDerr should win here; if this is PsiArc the odds are slightly better for the Zerg (55%)

Not surprisingly, Aligulac see's the exact same players make it through to Challenger (KingKong and EnDerr).  While I've agreed above, I think there's room for an upset either via Blysk (assuming he's not in Europe) or someone like PsiArc.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)