It has been awhile since I posted, but with the end of the WCS season at hand it's time to break out the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will be the final HOTS champion. For the first time in the WCS system we finally have something close to the best sixteen players competing (although no one thinks any of those who played outside Korea would have made it if they had to play there--that said, the three players are good enough to make things interesting). It's worth keeping in mind that the Koreans participating in the GSL and SSL have been playing on old map pools (the GSL's is particularly ancient). Because this WCS finale has mostly correct seeding, I wouldn't expect many upsets in the R16.
herO vs FanTaSy - the Smiling Assassin gets the edge (63%), although they are 3-3 against one another and the Terran has been better in TvP of late; that said, if you comb through herO's history this year he's 11-5 in the match-up and I'd put no stock in his loss to Reality at the MCSL tourney in mid-October; in meaningful games he's lost to Maru (twice), Dream, and Bbyong. FanTaSy has more of a track record to look at, with an overall 16-13 record, which is less impressive in terms of who he's lost too and who he's beaten--so I'd stick with the odds here
ByuL vs Classic - the Protoss is favoured (60%), with a perfect 6-0 record against his opponent; Classic is 12-5 in PvZ this year, while his opponent is 17-6 (!)--ByuL did lose to Classic the one time they faced each other (in May in the SSL) and it was very one-sided (3-0); there's potential for an upset here, but a lot of ByuL's success is predicated on that GSL map pool (8-2 with it, 9-4 without it), so I'll stick with the odds
INnoVation vs Zest - the macro monster is favoured (81%) over his Protoss opponent; the Terran is 21-6 in TvP and he's beat Zest the last two times they played (both fairly recently); the Protoss is 9-7 in the match-up and while he could win this series there's nothing in the numbers to suggest he will
Lilbow vs Life - the Zerg is favoured (55%) and although he's barely played foreigners this year he beat Lilbow twice back in April; the real question isn't about the Korean however, but the French Protoss player--despite a good record against the B-grade Koreans of late, I see no hope for him here (a win here for the Frenchmen would be the biggest upset of the round)
Rain vs Polt - Captain America has avoided serious Korean competition since the advent of the WCS system and despite inflated percentages from doing so he's still the underdog (41%); Polt hasn't played a Korean Protoss since January (losing to herO) and his last significant win was against Rain in early 2014; the Protoss player is very good in PvT (10-2) of late and should have no problem winning against his declining opponent
PartinG vs sOs - quite possibly the most entertaining PvP we'll see in HOTS, sOs is heavily favoured (70%), despite being 5-5 in the matchup of late; PartinG has been worse (3-7), although its fair to say some of those loses were in small competitions he wasn't taking very seriously; the two players haven't faced each other in a series since 2013, but without anything amiss in their recent history the odds seem fair
Hydra vs Dream - the ROOT player left Korea to avoid the difficult competition and here at BlizzCon he'll see if he can do more than simply qualify; he's a heavy favourite (75%), bolstered by his lopsided record against foreigners, but he also holds a 5-2 edge against his opponent (although none of those matches are from this year); almost all of Hydra's wins against Korean Terrans are versus non-GSL competition; Dream's TvZ record is not good (6-9), although most of his loses are against the best Zerg players and he has no results more recent than July; I like the upset here as I think Hydra's play has declined significantly the past few months--this is, however, one of the best opponents he could have hoped for
Maru vs Rogue - the Terran is favoured (61%) with a solid head-to-head history (7-4), including beating him just a month ago in the GSL; both players are 6-4 in the match-up of late; there's nothing here to suggest an upset and Maru is the better player, so I'd stick with the odds here
Aligulac has herO, Classic, INnoVation, Life, Rain, sOs, Hydra, and Maru moving forward. I agree with all except Hydra (so I have Dream moving forward). For those keeping track, all eight players Aligulac picked have won premier tournaments this year (my pick lost one)--all three GSL and both SSL champs move on in either scenario. There's certainly potential for other upsets--ByuL, Zest (largely on the basis of his opponents stubbornness when it comes to strategy), PartinG (because he's PartinG), and Hydra/Dream (depending on which prediction you prefer), but for the most part the higher seeded player is the better player.
Here's the Round of 8 following the predictions above:
herO vs Classic - the latter is favoured (64%), with a slight edge head-to-head (13-10), but having beaten him the last three series they've faced each other; Classic is also 8-2 in PvP of late, so while this could easily go either way the trends are with the favourite
INnoVation vs Life - once again the Terran is heavily favoured (80%), and he has the historical edge against his opponent (25-18), having won the last three times they've played each other; Life has been awful in ZvT lately (3-9), although he's one of those talented players who can just dominate at times; still, with an 11-1 record in the matchup recently I'll stick with INnoVation
Rain vs sOs - the former BlizzCon champ is again favoured (63%), although they are 11-11 head-to-head; both players are 5-5 in the match-up of late and split their last two matches against each other; to me this is a toss up, although given how sOs tends to show up when there's big money on the line I see an edge here
Dream vs Maru - not surprisingly the latter is favoured (65%), although they're close head-to-head (13-11) and 2-2 in series this year; Maru is 8-3 in TvT of late, while Dream is 6-4; with the numbers so close reputation and Aligulac have to sway opinions so I'll stick with the favourite; if Hydra is here than Maru is a very slight favourite (50%), which I think is far too generous to the ROOT player (who I think has no hope if he gets here). [With the results of the R16 we have one match-up that I never included, Rogue vs Hydra - Aligulac gives the ROOT player a slight edge (56%).]
I agree with Aligulac here that Classic, INnoVation, sOs, and Maru move forward, but these matches are much more in doubt that the R16 and all four could go the other way. Going by the odds the most likely upset would be Rain or herO moving forward (no surprise that these are via PvP).
The Semi-finals (R4):
Classic vs INnoVation - once again the Terran is favoured (73%), with a 5-4 edge against the Protoss player; the Terran is 10-3 in the match-up of late, while Classic is 6-6, and while he beat his opponent the last time they played it was in a monthly cup rather than something that really mattered; one bit of notable trivia: the Terran is not particularly good in TvP in BO5s--he's 1-5 the last two years, while the Protoss player is 4-3; I feel like with INnoVation's stubborn playstyle creates an upset here. Here are the odds of other potential matchups: herO vs INnoVation favours the Terran (70%); Classic vs Life slightly favours the Protoss (51%); herO vs Life slightly favours the Zerg (50%)
sOs vs Maru - this series is likely to be a lot of fun with two super aggressive players; Aligulac favours sOs (58%), although the two have only played each other once (with the Terran winning); both playres are 6-3 in the match-up of late; I like the odds, as sOs seems to lose against slower-paced Terrans rather than the frenetic pace of his opponent. Here are the other potential matchups: Maru vs Rain favours the Protoss (55%), sOs vs Dream favours the Protoss (56%), and Dream vs Rain favours the latter (53%). [With the results of the R16 in we have to envision either Hydra or Rogue in the R4, so Rain is a 51% favourite over the former and a 64% favourite over the latter; sOs is a 58% favourite vs the ROOT player and 70% favourite vs the latter.] {Now that we know Rogue is the player here, his Protoss opponent is a huge favourite (70%)}
Aligulac foresee's INnoVation and sOs, while I have Classic facing the former BlizzCon champ. Following the most likely upsets from the R8, Aligulac would still have INnoVation moving forward and would have Rain in place of sOs.
Finals
Classic vs sOs - the latter is favoured (56%), with an 8-4 record against his opponent; Classic has the better recent PvP record and beat his opponent the last time they played and I think has overall been better at PvP this year, so I'll take the upset. If Aligulac is right and this is INnoVation they favour (64%) him, although sOs has an 8-1 record against him and I'd think the master of Protoss cheese would do very well against someone as macro-focused as his opponent, so I'd take the upset here too. If this is Rain vs INnoVation (following the alternative above) the latter is still favoured (68%)
Classic is my winner, with Aligulac picking INnoVation.
