WCS America and Europe Challenger Predictions Day 1

As we delve into Aligulac's crystal ball it's worth remembering they have markedly better success predicting the European scene (as you can see here).  I largely agree with their numbers in both regions for tomorrow's matches.

 

WCS Europe

 

 Happy vs  Lambo

 

Happy is Aligulac's overwhelming favourite (85%) and even on this season's Zerg-favoured maps there's nothing in Lambo's recent results to suggest he'll win.

 

 ForGG vs  MiNiMaTh

 

Aligulac gives the Korean an even greater edge than Happy above (96%) and I see no reason to question it.

 

 elfi vs  Harstem

 

Aligulac gives elfi a significant edge (60%), despite Harstem beating MC and elfi himself recently (March and February respectively), but elfi is 17-2 (!) in PvP, so I'll again go with the odds.

 

 Genius vs  Krr

 

Surprisingly Aligulac does not give Genius an enormous edge (only 62%), despite being 9-1 against foreigners in PvP (granted most of those results are quite old); Krr has beaten solid European competition, but I don't foresee him winning here.

 

WCS America

 desRow vs  viOLet

 

Not surprisingly, Aligulac gives the Korean a huge edge (85%) and despite desRow pulling off the upset in season one over Apocalypse, I don't see any miracles from the Canadian this time around (especially with so little time to prepare).

 Illusion vs  JYP

 

Aligulac gives this to JYP (66%), and while Illusion has solid TvP against his fellow foreigners he has no wins over decent Koreans in HOTS; I stand with the odds.

 SeleCT vs  Jim

 

Aligulac see's Jim winning here (81%) and there's nothing in SeleCT's recent  history to suggest a different result.

 

 Courage vs  TheStC

 

The most even match-up of the day via the odds (Aligulac gives the Korean a 54% chance); TheStC has barely played over the last four months, but before taking time off was struggling against foreign Zergs; Courage hasn't played a Terran since January and hasn't faced a non-Chinese Terran since July--this makes their numbers in the match-up suspect; I think the time off will hurt the Korean, so I'll go with Courage for the upset.

 

Aligulac has Happy, ForGG, elfi, Genius, viOLet, JYP, Jim, and TheStC moving forward and I agree on all points except the last where I believe Courage will make it through.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)