Yesterday featured yet more one-sided matches (especially in NA, where all four series were 3-0); EU enjoyed its first five-game set (Bly vs MaNa, with Bly blowing a 2-0 lead). Aligulac was only 3-5 in its predictions (I was 5-3), as yet more Koreans fell (aLive losing to Suppy and KingKong to MajOr). I thought the quality of the games was a little better, but they have not matched the calibre of last season's Challenger matches. Predictions for today's games:
Miniraser vs 
YoDa
Aligulac has the Korean as the overwhelming favourite (74%); Miniraser has been very good in BO3+ ZvT (8-1 lately), but most of those wins were over middling foreigners; YoDa has only been playing for a few weeks after a two month break and he hasn't logged many TvZ matches (3-1 vs foreigners, losing to Tefel); I don't see an upset here.
Starbuck vs Stephano
I'd have to guess that Starbuck was one of the players Stephano did not want to face--certainly Aligulac gives the Slovenian a huge edge (81%) and his aggressive, unorthodox style is something I expect will give the Frenchman fits--I'm sticking with odds and hope for some nydus play.
Kas vs 
Patience
Patience is yet another overwhelming favourite (84%), but the Korean has lost quite a few times to foreigners in BO3+ matches lately (VortiX, Bunny, Zanster, elfi, Serral, and Lambo, all in April); on the flip side Kas hasn't been playing well and lost to Patience just two weeks ago, so while I don't think the Protoss warrants such dominant odds I'll still stick with them here.
Lilbow vs DeMuslim
Aligulac gives a slight edge to the Frenchman (53%); their recent track records are quite unhelpful (DeMuslim has barely played Protoss and most of Lilbow's PvT's are against French Terrans); in the absence of good information I'll stick with Aligulac.
HerO vs Xenocider
Not surprisingly, the Korean is expected to win (87%) and given that HerO hasn't lost to a foreign Terran since July there's good reason for that; Xenocider has not done well against good Protoss players and I think he'll fall here.
Aligulac gives Minigun the edge (58%), but qxc has been good in PvT (8-1 in his last BO3+ vs foreigners, losing only to puCK), although it's worth noting he lost to Minigun in their last match back in January; speaking of Minigun, due to health problems he has not played much and lost his last two PvTs back in March; I'll go with the fresher player and take qxc.
Scarlett vs Hendralisk
I don't often get excited about ZvZ, but along with the one above in EU this is another that potentially could be very good; Aligulac has Hendralisk as the slight favourite (51%) and Scarlett is 1-5 in BO3+ ZvZ's against foreigners of late; Hendralisk just had an 11-0 streak in the same circumstances broken as he lost back-to-back ZvZs to Suppy and rebOrn; despite the trends it's tough to call and I'll let Scarlett's reputation sway me for the "upset".
Has vs Pigbaby
The match likely generating the least amount of interest, Aligulac gives the Korean a slight edge (53%); Has doesn't have any wins over good Koreans, while Pigbaby has only lost to good Koreans--so who wins? I'll take the odds in this one.
Aligulac predicts YoDa, Starbuck, Patience, Lilbow, HerO, Minigun, Hendralisk, and Pigbaby will go forward; I disagree only by having qxc and Scarlett beating Minigun and Hendralisk.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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