With R32 wrapped up it's time to take stock and reflect on the results. The narrative from ESL was foreigners pulling off upsets over Koreans, so was that really the case? Let's look at the results: Koreans were 7-4 making their way through the R16, but how did they perform against foreigners? jjakji lost to Harstem, but YoDa knocked him out; similarly, MMA lost to LiveZerg (as did ForGG), but ForGG knocked him out; Mvp was just not on form (losing to ToD and uThermal); the biggest surprise was Patience losing both to Grubby and VortiX--as was LiveZerg beating both Koreans in his group. In the previous season Koreans were 6-2, going 13-7 in matches; in matches this season they were 14-7--so have things really changed? It doesn't appear to be the case.
As for racial balance, Protoss were 9-4, Zergs were 5-4, and Terrans were only 2-8. As for the direct match-ups: PvT 7-0, PvZ 4-3, ZvT 4-1; Terrans got crushed by everyone, while PvZ was relatively balanced.
In terms of predictions, Aligulac finished 11-5 (I was 12-4, correctly assuming BlinG would fall out). Last season Aligulac was marginally better (12-4), but either way, it's a fantastic ratio only thrown (as I've pointed out before) by the inability to fully parse the quality of player wins.
The R16 groups have been announced and here's a quick look at how Aligulac predicts outcomes:
Group A
ForGG
Snute VortiX
Harstem
Not surprisingly Aligulac goes with the Korean, even though ForGG can't seem to beat any Protoss;
I don't believe Harstem's magic from the previous round will manifest itself again, so what about the
Zergs? In 2014 (BO3+) Snute is 30-4 vs foreigners, while VortiX is just 5-3; oddly enough, VortiX
is much better against Korean Terran's than Snute, but given who plays who in this format in the end I
agree with the odds.
I don't believe Harstem's magic from the previous round will manifest itself again, so what about the
Zergs? In 2014 (BO3+) Snute is 30-4 vs foreigners, while VortiX is just 5-3; oddly enough, VortiX
is much better against Korean Terran's than Snute, but given who plays who in this format in the end I
agree with the odds.
Group B
MC YoDa Welmu ToD
Aligulac picks both Koreans and given that the Power of Protoss does not appear to be an issue for YoDa I have to agree.
Group C
First Golden Grubby MaNa
Aligulac again sides with the two Koreans and I see no reason to argue with that here.
Group D
San StarDust Nerchio LiveZerg
Aligulac's Korean addiction continues; there's no reason to question San, but StarDust is beatable and the map pool is Zerg-friendly; LiveZerg doesn't have enough history against Koreans to judge, but Nerchio has beat StarDust their last two matches (granted those are awhile back) so I'll take the upset here and go with him.
The odds give us 7 Koreans and a Snute and I don't differ much other than adding a Nerchio to the mix and removing StarDust.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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