With the WCS finals just days away it's time to look into the Aligulac crystal ball and predict who will win. I'll be at the event and if it's anything like the 2013 visit to Toronto it will be fantastic. Without further ado, the predictions [TL have subsequently posted their predictions and I've noted them in square brackets below]:
Group A
ForGG vs GunGFuBanDa - not surprisingly, the Korean is a huge favourite (76%); holding a 3-0 record against the German, who has been struggling in PvT lately, I see no reason to argue against the odds
Hydra vs Bunny - again the Korean is favoured (64%); he has a good record against the Dane; that said, there's certainly a chance for an upset, as Bunny has beaten Hydra and other Korean Zergs from time-to-time--I just don't see it happening here
Losers
Bunny vs GunGFuBanDa - the Terran is heavily favoured (71%); the Dane is 8-4 in the match-up of late, while the German is just 6-5, so I'll stick with the odds
Winners
ForGG vs Hydra - a clash of the titans, the ROOT player is slightly favoured (54%) and he certainly has a better record in the recent past against Korean Terrans; however, it's worth pointing out ForGG has faced exactly one Korean Zerg in this calendar year (losing to Soulkey in March), and that's the last TvZ series he's had period, making his recent track record completely useless for predictive purposes; in the absence of information I'll have to stick with Aligulac
Finals
ForGG vs Bunny - the Korean is a heavy favourite (75%), with a dominating record against his opponent (8-2); the only foreigner he's lost too in TvT in HOTS is Happy, so there's no reason to fight the odds
Not surprisingly, Aligulac and I [and TL] see the two Koreans moving forward. This is a truly unfortunate group for both foreigners, who would have a better chance in any of the other groups (or any other Korean).
Group B
Harstem vs Polt - the Dutch player is given almost no chance (19%), and the Protoss player has an awful PvT record vs Koreans; Captain America hasn't faced a foreign Protoss since February, although back then he showed some vulnerability to European players (losing to Verdi and Lilbow); unfortunately, the sample size from Polt is essentially useless so we're left to follow the Aligulac
MarineLord vs FireCake - the French Terran is favoured (61%) and the unpopular Zerg player doesn't have swarmhosts to counter his compatriot's mech-play; since the balance change MarineLord has only lost to Zergs from Norway (14-0 otherwise), so I like the odds here
Losers
Harstem vs FireCake - the odds are almost even, with the Frenchman getting the smallest of edges (52%), but here I lean towards the Dutch player--he's 18-2 in the match-up lately while FireCake is 3-4 since the patch--take the "upset"
Winners
Polt vs MarineLord - the Korean is favoured (67%), and while he does occasionally lose to foreigners, MarineLord's TvT is a mixed bag and I don't see him pulling off the upset here
Finals
Harstem vs MarineLord - the Dutchman was trash-talking his opponent on Rotterdam's last showmatch broadcast, but the Frenchman is favoured (69%) and there's nothing in Harstem's match-history to suggest any other result (his win over MarineLord in April doesn't seem relevant; the Terran is 22-3 in TvP against foreigners, only losing to Lilbow over that time); if Aligulac is right and this is FireCake, then see above
Both Aligulac and I see Polt and MarineLord moving forward [TL takes the Korean and FireCake]. This group is, incidentally, a good draw for Polt, who would be more vulnerable to other European players.
Group C
Lilbow vs iAsonu - the French player is a huge favourite (83%) over the remaining Chinese player; despite losing a few games of late, Lilbow is 18-3 in the match-up, while his opponent has an unimpressive ZvP record (5-4, losing to every player outside his region), so I take the odds
TLO vs iaguz - oddly enough, the Aussie Terran is favoured (59%), but it's important to remember his TvZ numbers are heavily inflated from the SEA region and he has middling results against European Zergs; TLO hasn't played a ZvT series in quite awhile, but I see him winning here
Losers
iAsonu vs iaguz - once again the Gimli-Terran is favoured (55%); the Chinese player has a very good ZvT record, albeit almost all of it is from his region; I feel like iaguz's SEA record is more meaningful here and he really only loses to the best foreign Zergs, so I'll stick with him here; if Aligulac is right and TLO plays, he's just slightly favoured against iAsonu (51%)
Winners
Lilbow vs TLO - once again the Protoss player is a huge favourite (81%) and his German opponent has shown recent struggles in ZvP (2-3), so it's reasonable to follow the odds; if Aligulac is right and this is iaguz then the Frenchman is still favoured (72%)
Finals
TLO vs iaguz - I've mentioned that re-matches typically go to the loser, but given iaguz's robotic style (the reason he lost to MacSed in WCS season one), I'll stick with TLO
Aligulac has Lilbow and iaguz moving forward while I have the French Protoss player and TLO [TL agrees].
Group D
Ret vs StarDust - the Korean is a slight favourite (51%); there are hardly any recent PvZ results from the former MYI player to look at, while we haven't seen this version of Ret play a Korean Protoss; historically he's awful against them, but his trends meant nothing in the R32; the Dutch player has been good in the match-up against foreigners (14-1 recently, including games against strong players); that said, StarDust did just beat Jaedong, so as fun as it would be to have the upset I'll stick with the odds
Jaedong vs Petraeus - not surprisingly the Tyrant is favoured (69%), and other than an inexplicable lose to Suppy back in April the Korean hasn't lost to a foreign Zerg this year; Petraeus on the other hand somehow beat Hydra in April, but otherwise he's struggled in the match-up and I see no hope for him here
Losers
Ret vs Petraeus - the Dutch player is a slight underdog (46%) and lost to his opponent in April; he's 8-2 in the match-up of late however, while his opponent is 7-5, so I like the upset here
Winners
Jaedong vs StarDust - the Tyrant is once again favoured (54%), despite losing to his opponent on Sunday (3-1) and having a losing record against him (11-13); Jaedong doesn't beat top Korean Protoss players, but that's not what he's facing here--I can see the upset happening, but I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Ret vs StarDust - I keep bringing up re-matches and it would be amazing to see Ret pull off the upset, but it's difficult to see him doing it looking at the numbers so I'll bow to Aligulac; if this is Petraeus instead, the Korean has an even slighter edge (50%), but I think that's being generous
Both Aligulac and I [and TL] see Jaedong and StarDust moving forward; it's worth noting neither Korean is unbeatable and I think with different foreign opposition an upset would be more likely.
Overall in the round of 16 I see all five Koreans advancing (as does Aligulac), along with Lilbow, MarineLord, and TLO (Aligulac has iaguz instead of TLO). Assuming all of this, let's move on to the R8 (which includes yet more unfortunate pairings for foreigners).
Lilbow vs ForGG - not surprisingly the Korean is favoured (62%), although his record against the French Protoss player isn't dominating (6-4); ForGG's last lost to as foreign Protoss was to his opponent back in February, but he's beat him three times since so I'll stick with the odds
Jaedong vs MarineLord - interestingly, the French player is favoured (51%), despite an 0-4 record against the Tyrant and Jaedong owning a 21-1 record vs foreign Terrans of late (only losing to Bunny), so I see no reason why the Korean won't take this
Polt vs StarDust - the Terran is an overwhelming favourite (78%) and seeing StarDust lose to qxc in the Hell it's Aboot Time qualifier doesn't inspire confidence; his record against Korean Terrans since the days of blink all-in's is awful so I'll take the odds
Hydra vs TLO - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (85%) and TLO has a terrible record against Korean Zergs--while I see no hope for the German, it's worth noting he beat Nerchio against all the odds so maybe this is the year of TLO; if Aligulac is correct and this is iaguz then the Korean is still heavily favoured (82%)
Aligulac has ForGG, Polt, Hydra, and MarineLord moving on to the semis, while I have the first three plus Jaedong (the best four players in the tournament, IMO). Onto the next round:
ForGG vs Jaedong - the Terran is favoured (66%) and has a winning record against the Dong (6-4, albeit those matches were a long time ago); there's no silver bullet looking through Jaedong's history to give him the win here so I'll stick with the odds; if Aligulac is right and this is MarineLord, he is a severe underdog (13%), although it would be fantastic to see a foreigner make it this far
Polt vs Hydra - despite the ROOT player's incredible failure in the season one final, he's still favoured here (68%); Captain America's record against Korean Zergs is not great, but Hydra has been slightly less dominant in the match-up of late--still, all the peripherals support him winning, so I'll stick with him
Aligulac and I have ForGG and Hydra in the final. Aligulac favours the Zerg slightly (56%), although ForGG won their only meeting 2-0 (back in 2013); the Terran is 6-4 vs Korean Zergs of late, while Hydra is 8-2 vs Korean Terrans. Statistically speaking this should be a triumph for the ROOT player, although it's worth keeping in mind what happened last season. [TL offers multiple choices, but 3 out of 5 also picked Hydra.]
A final note, a bit off-topic but related to predictions. Of late I've been keeping tabs on Team Liquid predictions for the Korean leagues (curious how that compares to their WCS thoughts). Their odd struggles in the R16 (2-6) and R8 (1-3) from season one continued this time around (3-9), although they were perfect in the semis; they also continued to struggle in the SSL (1-6 where predictions were made; the staff included multiple predictions for the final, but the majority (4-2) were wrong). This is strange because of how good TL has been in the R32 and the final stages of the GSL. I don't know what conclusion (if any) one should draw from this, but it's very odd.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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