We've reached the second big WCS tournament of 2016, Polt having won the first (IEM Katowice) over Snute just two months ago. Last time around three players pulled out of the tournament for varying reasons, whereas this time there was real drama as MarineLorD, DnS, and MajOr were all disqualified for win-trading and Clem for being underage. Their replacements are marked with an (r); eight other players earned their slots via WCS points (including all three Koreans); they are marked with an (i). So without further ado, here are predictions (relying as always on Aligulac's numbers and match history):
Polt (i) vs Strange - Captain America is the unsurprising favourite (81%); the two have no match-history, but the Russian has no notable wins over either Koreans or Korean Terrans specifically; Strange hasn't played a competitive match in the last three weeks, so it's difficult to imagine what form he'll be in; if there's any hope for the Russian it's that Polt has struggled against foreign Protosses (he's 0-3 vs Neeb and 2-2 vs puCK), but to me that's not enough to see an upset here
uThermal vs iAsonu - the Dutch player is heavily favoured (77%), although the two have never faced one another; the Terran has been a monster in TvZ lately (16-3, losing only to Snute and Nerchio); the Chinese player also has a good record in the matchup, but it's not against the same caliber of players (he hasn't played a European Terran since HOTS--basically he's beaten Kelazhur a couple of times); while an upset is always possible, I don't see it here
Has vs Happy (r) - the Taiwanese player is a wildcard who often catches opponents off-guard and while he's a significant underdog (23%) his Russian opponent had best take him seriously; the two have never faced one another before and Has only has one serious PvT under his belt in LOTV (beating Bunny at WCS Winter); Happy has been very good in TvP (16-3), but he's known as a stubborn player who sticks to one particular style, something a creative opponent could take advantage of; I could see an upset here, but there's nothing in Has' recent history to suggest it (his crazy strats tend to work best in the other matchups), so I'll stick with the odds
Elazer (i) vs XY - the Polish player is a huge favourite (84%), although the two have no past history and ZvT is not his best match-up (against top players he's 2-8 since February); he also suffers from nerves in tournaments (he should have beat Hydra at DreamHack Austin, but threw the series away with some ill-advised all-ins); the Chinese Terran hasn't played a European Zerg since October and in his own scene trades wins with the top Zergs; while I'm less than enthusiastic about Elazer's recent results in the matchup, his opponent doesn't strike me as being able to take advantage of that, so I'll stick with Aligulac
Nerchio vs VortiX - Neither player can be very happy with this opening match; given that the Spaniard didn't attend the previous WCS tourney (despite qualifying), it'll be interesting to see how he does against someone as dominant as Nerchio (favoured 67%); VortiX has been good in ZvZ (14-5), but not dominant, granted he beat his Polish opponent the one time they faced each other in LOTV (during the DreamHack Austin qualifier); from the beginning of the LOTV beta until about a month ago Nerchio was almost unbeatable in ZvZ, but he's 9-5 of late; to me this is a coin-toss, but I'll take the more experienced player
FireCake (r) vs Scarlett - the Canadian Zerg is favoured (57%), as the French player has had an atrocious ZvZ record of late (losing to Nedl, Denver, SolO, and TomikuS among others)--his last meaningful win was over a lackluster Serral in March; Scarlett hasn't exactly set the world on fire in ZvZ, but she only loses to good players and maybe at long last we'll finally see her move forward in a significant tournament
Neeb vs Lilbow - the American hope arrives as the favourite (63%) coming off his loss in the finals of DreamHack Austin; the two have not faced each other in LOTV; the French player's PvP has been mediocre at best while Neeb hasn't lost a PvP since PtitDrogo beat him in January--take the odds
Hydra (i) vs Bails - the Korean should probably be favoured even more than he is (79%), given both his 5-0 record against his opponent and the fact that Bails doesn't have a track record of beating Koreans--take the odds (Hydra's vulnerability is ZvZ, so there's nothing really for the American to draw from)
Snute (i) vs Guru (r) - the Polish Zerg is a fun player to watch and strangely enough he's beaten the Norwegian the last 3 times they've played; despite that he's a massive underdog (26%) and that's largely because his ZvZ has been unremarkable (57%); of late he's been better (17-7), but Snute is 6-2 in recent BO5's and I think he's had time to figure the Polish player out
Sortof vs ShoWTimE - the Swedish Zerg has seen his career rebound after largely disappearing in HOTS, but he's still the underdog (26%) against his German opponent; the Swede has a good record in ZvP, but most of that comes from pummeling lesser players; ShoWTimE has won all 3 matches the two have played in LOTV and his overall track record in PvZ is more impressive, so I like him here
HuK (i) vs iaguz - this is a great match for the Canadian who is favoured (58%) against the Aussie; amazingly the two have never faced each other; the Gimli-Terran has had good TvP numbers since the adept/overcharge nerf, but most of those matches are against SEA Protoss players (his most significant win being over Bails a month ago); HuK's PvT against good NA Terrans is decent but not dominant (he consistently loses to MaSa (3-7), for instance), with his best results pre-patch; I could easily see this match going either way, but I think the odds will hold true
viOLet (i) vs JimRising - the least impressive Korean has been gifted an easy start to the tournament--as much as I like the Mexican Zerg as a player and streamer, he's a long way from his opponent's level and the odds (81%) are kind to him; the only hope here is that viOLet struggles mightily against foreign Zergs, but I don't think JimRising is at a point where he can take advantage of that
PtitDrogo (i) vs Bunny - the DreamHack Leipzig champ seems to be rounding back into form at last, but so is his opponent who is heavily favoured (71%); the Dane has never dropped a game against the Frenchman, although all of those matches were in HOTS; PtitDrogo is awful in PvT (1-5 since the patch, his only win against Coffee), and while Bunny is nowhere near his dominant shape of a couple of years ago and his TvP isn't great (how do you lose to Funk ?); I do think the Dane has enough going for him to win
puCK vs MaSa - the Canadian Terran is favoured (64%) and is a funny player--he can wreck FireCake and then get completely embarrassed by Hydra; I never think of MaSa as a particularly strategic player, but rather someone who overwhelms opponents with his macro-fueled aggression; puCK, conversely, is a player whose performance is greatly influenced by his frame of mind, but surely his recent results will help in that regard; the American has won both series the two have played in LOTV and historically are very close in map score (22-18 for the Canadian); MaSa is 10-0 in TvP of late, whereas puCK has been struggling (5-5)--if trends mean something the odds are right here
Bly (r) vs Cham - this is the first time for the Mexican to participate in an event like this and oddly enough he's favoured (64%), his numbers boosted by the relatively weak Latin American scene; Bly had fallen off since making it to the finals in Leipzig, but he's been on fire in ZvZ lately (18-0!); Cham is 13-0 in the match-up himself, but the differing caliber of players has me taking the "upset" here
Harstem (i) vs Jim - the Dutch Protoss is favoured (76%); the Chinese player has come out of the doldrums of late in PvP and rattled off 8 straight wins, but by and large his opponents aren't that impressive; Harstem's PvP remains strong and I see no reason for him not to pull through here
I largely agree with Aligulac's predictions here, although with some trepidation as there are matches which could really go either way. The on major disagreement I have is with Bly (who I have going forward), otherwise it's Polt, uThermal, Happy, Elazer, Nerchio, Scarlett, Neeb, Hydra, Snute, ShowTimE, HuK, viOLet, Bunny, MaSa, and Harstem. In terms of potential upsets from the above, here's where I (and the odds) could be wrong: VortiX, Has, FireCake, Guru, iaguz, PtitDrogo, and puCK are all quite capable of pushing through to the R16, meaning I think only half the matches are absolute slamdunks for who will move on. That said, let's continuing the predictions assuming everything above is accurate:
Polt vs uThermal - an unfortunate match-up for the Dutch player, who is understandably the underdog (37%); they played twice before in HOTS, but this is their first meeting in LOTV; not surprisingly Captain America doesn't lose a lot of TvT's to foreigners, but he did lose to Kelazhur twice and Jason (!) back in February--only one of those was a BO5 and however much I like the Dutch player I don't see the upset happening here
Elazer vs Happy - the Russian gets a slight edge (51%), being 3-0 against his Polish opponent in LOTV; Elazer has been struggling somewhat in ZvT of late (4-3 in the HomeStory Cup qualifiers); given their history I like the odds here; if this is Has instead then the Polish player is heavily favoured (79%) although the usual caveats about the Taiwanese player remain
Nerchio vs Scarlett - the Polish player is a massive favourite (85%) and there's nothing in the Canadian's results to suggest a different result; if this is FireCake the odds actually increase (88%) and I see no reason to argue
Hydra vs Neeb - here we get to answer the question of whether the American has learned enough about his opponent to beat him (the Korean gets slight odds, 51%)--I think the upset is possible (they are 3-2 in series in LOTV), but at least at this point I have to favour the ROOT player
Snute vs ShoWTimE - the German is favoured (61%), although they've split series post-patch (1-1) and he's just 4-3 in the match-up recently; the Norwegian is 6-2 in ZvP lately, although that includes a loss to his opponent; for me the deciding factor is that Snute has been the one who has come through in major tournaments in LOTV, so I'll take the upset; if this is Guru he remains an underdog (32%) and I see no hope for him
viOLet vs HuK - the Korean once again has an easy path forward--he hasn't lost to the Canadian in almost two years and is understandably favoured (64%)--HuK is 0-9 vs Koreans in LOTV, so this will be his final stop; if this is iaguz his odds are slightly worse (34%) so we'd get the same result
Bunny vs MaSa - the Dane gets a slight edge (55%); both players have ridiculous TvT records (21-3 for the Dane, 20-1 for the Canadian), but MaSa hasn't played a European Terran in LOTV so his numbers are inflated by inferior competition--I like the odds here; if this is puCK the Dane remains favoured (65%) and the prediction seems sound; if this is PtitDrogo vs MaSa it favours the Canadian (70%!) which fits the French players struggles, and if it's PtitDrogo vs puCK it favours the American slightly (52%)--essentially a toss-up
Harstem vs Bly - the Ukrainian is given a slight edge (53%) and they are 2-2 in LOTV series; Bly is much better in ZvP than his opponent (although he did lose to Primelot recently), so I'd stick with the odds
I disagree with Aligulac in one instance again, as I have Snute moving forward. The biggest potential upset I think is Neeb. Assuming the above results, here is the R8:
Polt vs Happy - the Russian doesn't like playing Koreans and he certainly doesn't beat them, so take the odds (64%); if this is Elazer the odds are almost even, but nerves (if not ability) will see the Polish player fall if he gets here
Nerchio vs Hydra - the ROOT Korean certainly has the hardest road among his countrymen, as despite the Polish players penchant for choking in tournaments, this is exactly the match-up that Hydra has struggled with most against foreigners (getting bounced by Snute in WCS Winter and Bly at DreamHack Leipzig--he's also somehow lost twice to Reynor); Nerchio is 3-4 in recent series with Hydra, and 9-3 against Korean Zergs since late November--he's actually slightly favoured (51%), but I will take the "upset" here; if this is Neeb then the American is slightly favoured (50%) and I believe the match would truly be a toss-up
Snute vs viOLet - the easy road for the Korean stops here; the Norweigan is favoured (66%) and he's 3-1 vs his opponent in LOTV series; ZvZ is the biggest weakness for the Korean and he'll be the first to fall; if this is ShowTimE the German is favoured (68%)
Bunny vs Bly - the Dane is heavily favoured (73%) and is 11-2 in TvZ of late; Bly has been slipping a bit of late in the match-up (losing to Optimus of all people)--he's just 8-6; so while Bunny hasn't had any meaningful results in LOTV it appears his time is now; if this is MaSa he's favoured (64%), although I'd like the upset, and if it's puCK the Zerg is favoured (54%)
I disagree with Aligulac once again (taking Hydra). The quarterfinals:
Polt vs Hydra - the ROOT player is given a substantial edge (69%), having won their only LOTV series; other than viOLet Captain America doesn't beat Korean Zergs, so take the odds; if this is Neeb he's an underdog (43%); if it's Nerchio he's favoured (66%), although the Polish player's tendency to choke is a factor
Snute vs Bunny - what an epic match this would have been a year ago, but while the Norwegian continues to compete at the highest level his Danish opponent has completely fallen off the map despite being given the odds (56%); Bunny does have a 2-1 series record against Snute in LOTV, but outside rare stumbles the Norwegian has been extremely good in the matchup (34-9), so I like the upset here; there are a lot of other permutations here, but ShoWTimE wins if he makes it through against any of the possibilities
Once again I disagree with Aligulac by having Snute move forward. The finals:
Hydra vs Snute - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (71%) despite having lost his last 3 series against the Norwegian (he's only beaten him once in LOTV); there's something going on with Hydra and ZvZ and Snute has been extremely good in the match-up--I'll take the upset
Aligulac crowns Hydra, while I crown Snute.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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