WCS Premier Preview (Groups G and H)

 

The final two groups of WCS R32 play out later this week and I'm going back to the Aligulac crystal ball to assess who will win out.  The last four groups were a nightmare for predictions, as Aligulac was 2-6 (I was 3-5, Team Liquid 4-4) as a number of veteran SC2 pros failed to move forward (overall Aligulac is 4-8; TL is 7-5).  From past experience Aligulac is accurate about two-thirds of the time, so the results here seem like an anomaly.  As always, if you notice any errors or omissions, please let me know.

 

Group G

MorroW vs Hydra - unsurprisingly Hydra is the favourite (79%), and given that he's never lost to a foreigner in HOTS (56-0) I see no hope for the Swedish Terran

ShoWTimE vs iAsonu - the German player gets the odds (73%) and has been dominant in PvZ of late (15-2), with wins over Serral, TLO, and TargA; iAsonu plays in the insular Chinese and Taiwanese scene so he's hard to judge--he loses to the best Protoss players there, but the Protoss scene isn't particularly deep; given that I'll stick with Aligulac

Losers Match

MorroW vs iAsonu - the Swede is a slight favourite (57%); iAsonu has a good ZvT record, but those numbers are almost entirely based on playing just two players (XY and Ein); MorroW is 15-6 in the match-up of late, which includes wins over Snute and TargA, but he's also lost to players like Goswser and MiNiMaTh; all of this is to say it's a virtual coin flip, but I'll stick with MorroW

Winners Match

Hydra vs ShoWTimE - the odds aren't quite as overwhelming (62%) and the German did take a game off Hydra in last months go4sc2 finals...but I still see the Korean taking this group 4-0

Finals

MorroW vs ShoWTimE - the Protoss is given the advantage (61%); despite the German's record against Terran being mixed of late, he's losing to top Europeans whereas the Swede's positive TvP numbers have been drummed up against second-tier players, so I'll stick with ShoWTimE

 

Both Aligulac and I see Hydra and ShoWTimE going through.  I'd like to see someone push Hydra, but I'm not expecting it.  I'm also leery of judging iAsonu's form since we rarely get to see him play and it's much easier for him to study his opponents than the other way around.

 

Group H
iaguz vs MacSed - the Aussie is the favourite here (55%); iaguz's TvP is all over the place, with he and MacSed splitting their last meeting at the KungFu Cup in November; MacSed does quite well in the insular scene he typically plays in and the Gimli-Terran tends to play predictably so I'll take the "upset" here

Welmu vs HuK - the Canadian is the slight favourite (51%) in the most volatile of mirror match-ups; HuK is 15-2 in his most recent PvP's while Welmu is 13-3, but for the most part neither have played the best foreigners; I think the Finn is a better player at his peak, but I don't think he's there right now so I'll give this to the always aggressive HuK
Losers Match
Welmu vs iaguz - the Finn is a slight favourite (56%), but I think that's conservative and that iaguz will lose convincingly; if Aligulac is right and this is Welmu vs MacSed the Finn remains the favourite (56%)

Winners Match

HuK vs MacSed - the Canadian gets the odds (59%) and I see no reason to disagree; if this match is  iaguz vs HuK then the Canuck remains a slight favourite (52%), but with recent wins over Xenocider and MarineLorD he seems primed to win that contest if it occurs

Finals

Welmu vs MacSed - the Finn is favoured (56%) and if on point he should win; if Aligulac is right then this will be Welmu vs iaguz with the Finn given the same edge as above

 

Both Aligulac and I have HuK and Welmu advancing.  I don't feel very confident about the selection however--no player has strong odds over any other.  Add PvP volatility and the advantage iaguz has of preparing for only one match-up, there's a lot of room for upsets.

 

So far there are 7 Zergs, 3 Terrans, and 2 Protoss through to the R16, with two of three Koreans making it through (RIP viOLet).  Five players are going to make their R16 debuts (Kane, PiG, FireCake, Has, and Serral).  The most competitive groups thus far were C and D.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)