With Groups A and B taking place this weekend it's time to look into the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will move on to the Round of 16 (you can see the groups here). If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.
Group A
XiGua vs Astrea - the American gets a slight edge (51%); XiGua is well past his gamer prime at 28 (you can see more about the how pro gamers age here), and hasn't faced a serious non-Chinese, non-Korean opponent in HOTS, so his form is hard to judge; however, he's got much more tournament experience than Astrea; as for the "favourite", the Protoss' results aren't remarkable other than beating a declining Scarlett, so I'll give this to XiGua
Snute vs uThermal - not surprisingly Snute is the favourite at 64%; is there hope for the Dutch Terran? From the results of both it doesn't look like it, as while the Norwegian has lost to a few foreign Terrans of late, uThermal has dropped series against Zergs like Zanster, Kane, and Snitchables
Losers Match
Astrea vs uThermal - the Terran is an overwhelming favourite (69%), having beaten Astrea a month ago in the SEA OSC All-Stars; the American's only significant wins against foreign Terrans were back during the blink all-in phase with a very different map pool, so I'll stick with the odds
Winners Match
XiGua vs Snute - the Norwegian is a veritable certainty with an 80% chance; Snute's ZvZ has been off the charts lately (19-2) and I see no hope for the Chinese Zerg
Final
uThermal vs XiGua - Aligulac gives the match to uThermal (64%) and given the paucity of data on XiGua against anyone other than the thin Chinese Terrans I'll go with it.
This would mean Snute and uThermal move on, which stays the same even sticking religiously to Aligulac's predictions: if Astrea beats XiGua the fallout is: Snute beats the Protoss player (82%), uThermal still defeats XiGua and then Astrea.
Group B
TLO vs Kelazhur - a nice match for TLO as he's a 70% favourite and there's nothing to suggest the Brazilian can pull off an upset
Polt vs Jim - as expected Polt is the overwhelming favourite (77%) and I see no reason to argue with that
Loser's Match
Jim vs Kelazhur - Jim is the overwhelming favourite (71%), with the only blot on his record being a loss to iaguz back in WCS Premier last year--I'll stick with the odds, however
Winner's Match
Polt vs TLO - the Korean is slightly less favoured (66%), but since losing three times to Scarlett at Red Bull back in June, Polt has only dropped one match against a foreign Zerg (going 24-1), so he'll win here
Finals
TLO vs Jim - the Chinese Protoss is a heavy favourite (63%) and there's nothing in TLO's recent ZvP matches to suggest an upset
We should see Polt and Jim advancing.
For those who missed it, there was an ESL/Blizzard boondoggle drawing the WCS groups initially, so here's how things have changed from the first official announcements:
Astrea, XiGua and uThermal moved from Group C to one with Snute (Group H)
Kane and PiG moved from the all-Zerg Group H to one that includes TargA (Group A) and Happy (Group B)
MajOr and MaNa moved from Group A to one with Bunny (Group C) and viOLet (Group G)
Kelazhur and Jim have gone from Group E to one that includes Polt (Group B) and TLO (Group G)
NaNiwa and Suppy have gone from Group E to one that includes Serral (Group B) and Has (Group D)
Welmu and iaguz have moved from Group F to one with HuK (Group D) and MacSed (Group G)
The new Groups D and F have no prior pairings.
So who were the winners and losers of the shuffle? Winners include Happy, who went from a group with two Koreans to one with none; Serral (who was also in Happy's original group), who enjoys the same advantage; HuK seems to have marginally improved as his group looks weaker; I think iaguz is doomed, but not having to play Hydra can only help; Welmu also no longer faces a Korean.
As for the losers, MajOr's and MaNa's groups are marginally more difficult; puCK's is much more difficult; FireCake now has a Korean to face, as does ShoWTimE; both Kelazhur and Jim now have to face Polt; viOLet (the least intimidating Korean) is in a much more difficult group; iAsonu now has to deal with Hydra.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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