Before digging into the R16 match-ups I thought it was worth looking back and seeing how the eight groups in the R32 turned out versus predictions. Overall Team Liquid had the strongest round (9-7), with Aligulac trailing behind slightly (7-9)--I split the difference at 8-8. None of these numbers are particularly impressive (TL's 56% is only just better than a coin flip), but I think some of that randomness boils down to the nature of group play, best-of-threes, and other things that can't be known beforehand (like viOLet being sick or HuK having personal issues). For those who missed the TL threads, here they are: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E, Group F, Group G, and Group H.
Group A
All predictions correctly picked Snute and incorrectly picked uThermal; the Dutch player was not feeling well in LA, which may have played a part in him losing to XiGua; I also think the fact that the Chinese and Taiwanese players rarely compete outside their region makes them much harder to judge. Astrea (as expected) struggled in falling out of the group, but at least won one game (only two players were 0-4 in the R32).
Group B
Everyone predicted Polt making it through while erroneously picking Jim second (instead of TLO). This group featured the first decent upset (Kelazhur over TLO), but as happened throughout the round the losing player of a BO3 won the rematch (5-1 actually, as FireCake beat puCK twice). The failed predictions here (I think) were due to the limited exposure for Jim along with TLO's patchy play in the WCS qualifiers. Kelazhur is one of only two players (the other being Happy in Group D) who won 4 games without moving forward.
Group C
Bunny was successfully picked by TL (and me), while MajOr was the failed pick for everyone (Aligulac missed with viOLet). This was a strange group, as MajOr won the first game of each of the sets he lost, while an ill viOLet struggled against both MaNa and Bunny--interestingly, Aligulac correctly picked MaNa to beat his TL teammate, but not where that would happen in the group.
Group D
TL was the only predictor to get a player right (PiG), as Aligulac missed out with both TargA and Happy (TL also picked the Russian Terran). Happy should have made it through, but his predictability and passivity were something both Kane and PiG took advantage of; as for TargA, it looked like the pressure got to him, as it was a shock to see him lose both ZvZ series.
Group E
The no-brainer pick of ForGG paid off here, but Aligulac's Sen pick failed miserable as did TL's selection of puCK. This featured some of the worst matches in the R32, with Sen completely off his game and a clueless puCK somehow missing over a year's worth of PvZ metagame vs swarm hosts (he reminded me of TitaN vs Snute back in Nation Wars last January). This isn't to say I like FireCake's style and I'll be glad when swarm hosts are (at last) changed, but I would have thought there would be better preparation by his Protoss opponent.
Group F
The picks were the same across the board, with everyone correctly picking Serral and incorrectly choosing NaNiwa. Suppy bombed out (as expected), while NaNiwa showed both signs of rust and being on-tilt towards the end. I enjoy Has' brand of cheese, although I would have preferred NaNiwa moving forward as he's a better player overall.
Group G
Everything went according to plan as both Hydra and ShoWTimE moved on. This group had the one true upset, as MorroW beat Hydra in straight up macro games; while the Swede lost the rematch, this surely has to give some hope to his Terran opponents at least. As for ShoWTimE, he was solid, but didn't face much opposition.
Group H
Aligulac correctly picked Welmu, while both it and TL missed with HuK and TL with iaguz. HuK was off form and increasingly on-tilt as the night went on; iaguz died attempting to do the exact same thing to MacSed on Vaani in their final game, which was a bit sad as it would have been fun to have the Gimli Terran in the next round.
So how did the various regional qualifiers perform?
Europe: 9-5 (Korean 1-0)
America: 3-5 (Koreans 2-1)
China: 2-2
Taiwan etc: 1-1
Australia: 1-1
Latin America: 0-2
As much as some fans talk about how weak some regions are, each offered strong play (including Latin America, despite both players falling out). Europe, as expected, performed the best.
In terms of racial performance (with 8 Zergs, 5 Protoss, and 3 Terrans moving forward):
ZvT 7-6
ZvP 5-4
PvT 4-3
Map Scores (excluding mirrors):
Vaani (19): TvZ 5-3 ZvP 4-2 PvT 3-2
Overgrowth (16): TvZ 4-3 ZvP 4-2 PvT 2-1
Expedition Lost (13): ZvT 6-0 ZvP 4-2 TvP 1-0
Deadwing (12): TvZ 4-0 TvP 2-2 PvZ 2-2
Catallena (11): TvZ 4-3 TvP 1-1 ZvP 1-1
Inferno Pools (2): ZvT 1-0 TvP 1-0
Secret Spring (1): PvT 1-0
Overall (74): TvZ 17-16 ZvP 15-9 PvT 9-8
It appears as though no one should play on Expedition Lost against Zerg, while Zergs should veto Deadwing vs Terran; there's no clearly favoured map for Protoss as yet.
At any rate, predictions for the R16 will be forthcoming. If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know!
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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