WCS Season Three: Looking Back

I'm a bit late getting this out, but better late than never.  The third and final season in 2015 is in the books and Krakow delivered the most exciting event of the year.  The crowd was fantastic, there were upsets, and for the first time in WCS history there was a foreign winner of their own event.  Not surprisingly, the viewership was WCS' highest over the past two years:

There were a number of great stories at the event--whether it was MaNa having a tour de force in his home country; Lilbow beating three Koreans on his win to victory; Jaedong's BlizzCon dreams crashing as yet another Korean (ForGG) knocked him out; Zanster nearly making it into the final, and on and on.  Virtually everything ESL could have hoped for they got, including some fantastic games (just a couple of examples: the third game between Hydra and Lilbow as well as Lilbow's base trade with MaNa in the final).

How about predictions?  Rather than just look at season three, here's how the whole year panned out for myself, Team Liquid (TL), and Aligulac:

R32*
Aligulac 35-13 (9-7, 12-4, 14-2)
Me 28-20 (8-8, 9-7, 11-5)
TL 28-20 (7-9, 11-5, 10-6)
R16
Me 20-4 (7-1, 7-1, 6-2)
Aligulac 17-7 (6-2, 6-2, 5-3)
TL 16-8 (5-3, 6-2, 5-3)
R8**
Me 9-3 (2-2, 4-0, 3-1)
Aligulac 8-4 (3-1, 4-0, 2-2)
R4/Final
Me 7-2 (2-1, 3-0, 2-1)
Aligulac 5-4 (1-2, 2-1, 2-1)
Total
Aligulac 93-42 (68%)
Me 91-44 (67%)
TL 44-28 (61%)

*I didn't fully predict or check Aligulac in season one of Challenger and I only have TL's predictions for season three (14-7); when I did check Aligulac was 28-14 (15-6, 13-8) and I was 27-15 (13-8, 14-7)
**TL didn't post predictions beyond the R16

I lost out to Aligulac by the slightest of margins in overall predictions, although it's some solace that from the R16 onward I was more accurate (36-9 vs 30-15).

With LOTV around the corner it seems a bit redundant to go into map results, but the usual balance in Premier is worth a look:
PvZ 11-9
ZvT 6-7
TvP 4-8

Clearly the baguette-style proved triumphant in the swan song of HOTS (if my foggy memory is correct, every third season in HOTS has seen an upswing for Protoss).  As for Koreans vs non-Koreans, they were 13-6 in season three, by far their worst showing yet--quite surprising given that they were 9-1 in the R32 and all of them moved on to the R16.

All that remains for WCS in HOTS is BlizzCon with its vast sea of GSL Koreans who will be expected to make short work of Hydra, Polt, and Lilbow (although one never knows--perhaps the three will be aided by GSL using a very antiquated map pool--but I doubt it).  It should be the best WCS final yet, at least in terms of overall talent.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Predictions: R8 to the Finals

The R16 is in the books and before getting on to the next set of predictions here's a quick look at how the things turned out for the just completed round:
Me: 6-2
TL/Aligulac: 5-3
The results are similar to season two and season one (as R16's go in 2015 I'm 20-4, Aligulac is 17-7, and TL is 16-8).  The biggest surprise was Zanster making it through in Group A (no one predicted it).  Hydra losing to Elazer was a surprise in itself, but (just like when he lost to MorroW in season one) he beat him in the rematch.

The Round of 8 (I'll add TL's predictions when they appear).

Zanster vs GunGFuBanDa - the Swede gets the slightest of edges (52%), holding a 2-0 record against his opponent; both players have had mixed results in the match-up of late and both did well in it in the previous round; GunGFuBanDa seems to have a predictable style in the match-up and I think that's exploitable, so I'll give this one to Zanster

Lilbow vs Hydra - while the ROOT player is beatable, and the odds aren't too egregious (53%), I see it going to the Korean; it's a rough draw for Lilbow who, given virtually any other opponent, would be a lock to move forward--if he wins here he has a clear path to the final

Polt vs ForGG - this could be the best series of the round (it's also a re-match from season one); Aligulac favours the latter (63%), and while ForGG has the head-to-head record edge (9-5), he did lose their previous encounter 3-2--he also has a reputation for choking in tournaments, while Polt is known to elevate his play; that said, he did go toe-to-toe with INnoVation not long ago and I like the idea of him having one lass hurrah before he does his military service

Petraeus vs MaNa - the Kiwi is favoured (54%), but the Polish player is a PvZ monster and I don't think his loss to Zanster is a sign of systemic weakness, so I like the upset here

Aligulac has Zanster, Hydra, ForGG, and Petraeus moving on; my list is similar except I have MaNa instead of Petraeus.  Assuming my results:

Zanster vs Hydra - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (72%) and the Swede has not won a ZvZ series against a Korean since 2013, so there's not much room for doubt here.  If this is GunGFuBanDa the Korean is given even better odds (85%).

ForGG vs MaNa - the Korean has the edge (65%), despite a losing record against his Polish opponent (5-8) and recent struggles in TvP against foreigners; on the other hand, MaNa has not had much success against Korean Terrans lately (2-5, including a loss to ForGG); as nice as the Cinderella-story would be for MaNa on his home soil, I'll stick with the Korean.  If this is Polt instead, he's even more heavily favoured (76%).  If Petraeus is here instead of the Polish Protoss, ForGG is only slightly favoured (56%), while the Kiwi is actually favoured against Polt (53%), having a good record against second-tier Korean Terrans as well as a win over Captain America himself (at MSI).

Aligulac and I favour the two Koreans.  The finals:

Hydra vs ForGG - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (72%), although the Terran beat him the only time they've met (2-0); Hydra is 7-4 against Korean Terrans of late, while ForGG has only played one Korean in the match-up over the same period (beating Jaedong in the R16); looking at Hydra's recent history he seems to struggle against meching Koreans, so perhaps that's the edge that ForGG needs--I like the upset here.

Aligulac has Hydra repeating as champion, while I have ForGG earning his first WCS title.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS R16 Predictions

The R16 gets underway tomorrow so with a reminder that Hitman was replaced by Elazer (eliminating the last NA player in WCS), it's time to wind up the Aligulac machine and make predictions (TL's predictions can be found here):

Group A

MarineLorD vs elfi - the French Terran is favoured (57%); he's 8-3 in series against foreign Protoss of late, including a win over Has who plays a similar style to the Finn; elfi has barely played any Terran's of late (he's 1-2 over the same period), but losing to frozz doesn't bode well and he has no wins over any Terran of MarineLorD's caliber, so I'll stick with the odds here
MaNa vs Zanster - the Polish player is favoured (62%), and he's been almost bullet proof since the swarmhost patch in PvZ (17-2, with losses only to TargA and Bly); the Swede, in contrast, essentially hasn't beat a decent Protoss player since the patch (NaNiwa back in May is the closest), so I like the odds
Losers
elfi vs Zanster - the Swede is a slight favourite (54%); the Finn hasn't played much lately (he's 6-2 since the patch), but I think Zanster's wins apply more here (27-10); I don't have strong feelings either way so I'll rely on Aligulac
Winners
MarineLorD vs MaNa - Aligulac has this as a virtual coin toss, with the French Terran getting the edge (51%), but the Polish player has been awful in PvT lately (2-8), so it's easy to stick with the odds
Finals
MaNa vs Zanster - rematches often go to the loser, but given the Swede's struggles against better Protoss players I think MaNa will win again here

Both Aligulac and I have MarineLorD and MaNa moving forward (TL agrees).

Group B

Snute vs Sen - this would have been a clash of the titans a year or two ago, but now the Norwegian is heavily favoured (68%); ZvZ is a Snute specialty and he's 21-4 of late; the Taiwanese player is strong in ZvZ in his own region, but losing to Suppy just a few months back is not a good sign and I see no hope for him here
GungFuBanDa vs Petraeus - the Kiwi is a strong favourite (64%); the German has barely played PvZ since the patch (5-3, including a win over his opponent), whereas the Kiwi has played a ton, unfortunately it's mostly against low to mid-tier players--it's hard to see where either is in the match-up, so I'll stick to the odds
Losers
GungFuBanDa vs Sen - the German is favoured (58%) and given the limited available track record for both players (the Zerg has only five ZvP series played against foreigners in the last five months) I'll lean on those odds
Winners
Snute vs Petraeus - once again the Norwegian is favoured (56%) and the Kiwi hasn't had a win over a good Zerg opponent since beating Nerchio back in April, so it's easy to stick with Aligulac
Finals
Petraeus vs GungFuBanDa - I think we'll see the WCS trend of the rematch going to the previous loser come through here

Aligulac and TL have Snute and Petraeus making it through, whereas I have the Norwegian and GungFuBanDa.

Group C

Polt vs viOLet - the Terran is favoured (53%), but has only one win over a Korean Zerg in 2015 (he's 0-10 otherwise), while his roommate and opponent is 7-2 against Korean Terrans--it's funny to say that someone who has failed as hard as viOLet in WCS could win here, but the numbers suggest he will
Hydra vs Elazer - the ROOT player is obviously the favourite (84%) and I see no reason to debate that
Losers
Polt vs Elazer - Captain America is heavily favoured (71%) and despite the Polish player beating ForGG recently I see no hope for him here (it's worth noting that Polt did lose to Petraeus recently)
Winners
Hydra vs viOLet - the percentages make you think the ROOT player is facing a foreigner (72%); given the latter's 1-8 vs Koreans in the matchup )including two losses to Hydra), it's not surprising
Finals
Polt vs viOLet - the raw numbers above would give this to the Zerg player again, but we also have the usual WCS feature of rematches going to the loser--this series means a lot more to Captain America than his roommate (who also has a much better tournament track record), so I'll take him here

Aligulac has Hydra and viOLet moving forward while I (and TL) have the ROOT player and Polt.

Group D

ForGG vs iaguz - the Korean is massively favoured (89%) and the only question is does the Aussie have any chance at all--I don't see it, although it's worth mentioning he beat Journey back in March
Jaedong vs Lilbow - interestingly, the French player is heavily favoured (63%), despite the Tyrant not having lost to a foreign Protoss since February (he's 22-0 since), whereas Lilbow hasn't had much success against Korean Zergs; I take the "upset" here
Losers
iaguz vs Lilbow - the French player is heavily favoured (74%) and has only lost to the best foreign Terrans over the last four months; the Aussie has beat good Protoss players recently (PtitDrogo and  MaNa), but I don't see him winning here
Winners
ForGG vs Jaedong - the Terran is favoured (55%); oddly, he hasn't played a Korean Zerg in almost six months, while the Tyrant has barely played any Korean Terrans--it's tough to call, as Jaedong seems to have improved of late while ForGG has looked shaky, but my feelings aren't that strong so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Jaedong vs Lilbow - will the rematch curse come to fruition?  I'd like Lilbow to get through and that jives with Aliguac, so I'll put the French player through

Aligulac and I have ForGG and Lilbow go through, while TL has the French player and Jaedong.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

There have been five posts from Blizzard since my last news digest, so in order:

-August 14th: with Koreans finally using the raven-centric mech that's existed in the foreign scene forever, there's a balance panic about it (rather than realizing the GSL is using an old map pool that allows for that kind of play); unfortunately the thought of doing something with the moribund Swarmhosts is suggested--what will it take to get this unit out of the game?  It's a poorly designed and conceived even in LOTV.  The biggest element of the post were planned changes to macro mechanics in the beta (the removal of MULEs, chrono, etc), about which more below.

-August 19th: automated tournaments were added to the LOTV beta, which I think is fantastic

-August 20th: macro mechanics were removed in the beta, which lead to a wide range of reactions--I like the general idea, although admittedly it's not balanced yet.  Qxc offered his thoughts shortly afterwards and concludes:

The most interesting parts of Starcraft have to do with unit design, map control and micro. Without good macro, players cannot really experience those other aspects. By reducing the macro requirements, Starcraft can become a game that’s less about producing as much stuff as possible and more focused on the more compelling parts of the game at all skill levels. Newer players will have less to worry about in terms of production so they can focus on the more interesting parts of Starcraft while more skilled players will be able to expand their army movements and multitasking. In addition, the increase in multitasking and army movements will help improve the overall viewer experience as there’s more conflict and interaction between the players during the game. Although the balance involved in their removal might not be there yet, there’s still plenty of time to tweak the numbers. Overall, the removal of macro mechanics helps push Starcraft to be a game more about army positioning, strategy, micro and more rather than a game that’s more focused on who can make the most stuff.

I agree with his sentiments.

-August 21st: changes to the Swarmhosts were put in a balance map because Blizzard wants me to hate watching ZvP again--I'm not sure why it's been so hard for the designers to realise the unit simply doesn't function as designed--they were created to break siege lines and I'm not sure I've ever seen that actually happen as envisioned; now it's a bizarre, Frankenstein-unit half-built to harass and half-built to battle tanks--the moment it becomes affordable Zerg players will just start massing them again in unintended ways.  The other element here discussed were thoughts on Protoss design--look, Blizzard, the ship has sailed on the perception of Protoss--people are going to whine about the race even when they start producing marines out of barracks--just ignore the white noise and focus on keeping the flavour and making things balanced.

-August 28th: they acknowledged the balance issues with the macro changes and are taking the approach of autocasts for the other races--it's a decent idea and should help balance things a bit.  There were also thoughts on getting Protoss balanced and they seem like steps in the right direction (Theo's post below is a bit more meaty).  One other note: they're (finally) talking about moving overlord drop to Lair-tech.

One thing that's become apparent in reading the feedback is how much more the opinions from Korea mean to the developers:

We agree with the Korean pros/community on this point - that because Starcraft 2 is already one of the most difficult games to master by far out there, and LotV added much more skill needed to play, helping out on this end looks to be the correct move.

I wonder if this understandable tunnel vision is part of the reason responses to issues in the foreign scene have taken so long (Brood Lord/Infestor, Swarmhosts, region lock, etc).

Speaking of feedback, Theo has a fantastic post about LOTV balance with suggested unit changes etc.

Mr. Bitter was unhappy with the viewership for the Red Bull BattleGrounds Archon tournament over the weekend (whose peak average was 8k; my favourite part was this), which surprises me.  It was scheduled against both WCS and the MSI tournament, featuring a secondary element of the beta (archon mode) topped by various semi-retired/second-tier pros (I'm also not a fan of the tournament format--it's distinctive, but not very interesting).  I've seen people complain about the hosts, but I don't think that was an issue.  The best case scenario for Red Bull is to steer clear of competing tournaments and recognize that archon-mode won't achieve the viewership of standard SC2 any time soon (perhaps in the future, but not now).  Even running a normal LOTV tournament makes little sense right now because the balance just isn't there.

I didn't see much of the MSI tournament, but there were good games and I liked the casters (Rotti/ToD).

Hell it's Aboot Time has come and gone and I really enjoyed it (ZombieGrub posted her thoughts yesterday--apparently they were disappointed with the views for the event, which surprises me--perhaps they were expecting HomeStory Cup levels?).  Wardii got the English B-stream, and while I still find him a bit laconic I was glad to have options for which game I was watching (Taketv provided German language coverage).  Rifkin and ZombieGrub went out of their way to make the event amazing for those who attended and certainly repaid the good will they've built up in the community.  The only criticism I can offer is that the tournament would have been much more distinctive as either a NA-only or foreigner-only event; there hasn't been a major, non-national event without Koreans since (I think) TotalBiscuit's ShoutCraft America (back in 2013).

Cyan offers a retrospective on StarCraft on the TL website and comes to the logical conclusion that WCS needs a real region lock:

When it comes to eSports in general, this data suggests that the most important thing to stimulate growth is to ensure that the professional scene is locally involved. Try to base your scene as locally as possible. If you want to grow your scene in one region, focus your efforts and attention in that region. A European team winning an American tournament won’t stimulate as much growth in America as if an American team were to win. It does seem like fairly common sense.

Thorin interviewed Stuchiu to talk about the great players of SC2 and it's well worth the read.  Stuchiu also just posted an article looking at the historical state of the various match-ups in SC2.

Farhad Manjoo looks at the impact of Ad Block on the Internet.  It's a long article, but in essence concludes:

in the long run, there could be a hidden benefit to blocking ads for advertisers and publishers: Ad blockers could end up saving the ad industry from its worst excesses. If blocking becomes widespread, the ad industry will be pushed to produce ads that are simpler, less invasive and far more transparent about the way they’re handling our data — or risk getting blocked forever if they fail.

The ad industry certainly won't get rid of Ad Block except through the cold, dead hands of consumers (streamers complaining about it don't help their cause--rather than attacking viewers, encourage them to watch your ads or support you in other ways).  Less intrusive and more interesting ads are (hopefully) the wave of the future.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)