WCS R16 Predictions

The R16 gets underway tomorrow so with a reminder that Hitman was replaced by Elazer (eliminating the last NA player in WCS), it's time to wind up the Aligulac machine and make predictions (TL's predictions can be found here):

Group A

MarineLorD vs elfi - the French Terran is favoured (57%); he's 8-3 in series against foreign Protoss of late, including a win over Has who plays a similar style to the Finn; elfi has barely played any Terran's of late (he's 1-2 over the same period), but losing to frozz doesn't bode well and he has no wins over any Terran of MarineLorD's caliber, so I'll stick with the odds here
MaNa vs Zanster - the Polish player is favoured (62%), and he's been almost bullet proof since the swarmhost patch in PvZ (17-2, with losses only to TargA and Bly); the Swede, in contrast, essentially hasn't beat a decent Protoss player since the patch (NaNiwa back in May is the closest), so I like the odds
Losers
elfi vs Zanster - the Swede is a slight favourite (54%); the Finn hasn't played much lately (he's 6-2 since the patch), but I think Zanster's wins apply more here (27-10); I don't have strong feelings either way so I'll rely on Aligulac
Winners
MarineLorD vs MaNa - Aligulac has this as a virtual coin toss, with the French Terran getting the edge (51%), but the Polish player has been awful in PvT lately (2-8), so it's easy to stick with the odds
Finals
MaNa vs Zanster - rematches often go to the loser, but given the Swede's struggles against better Protoss players I think MaNa will win again here

Both Aligulac and I have MarineLorD and MaNa moving forward (TL agrees).

Group B

Snute vs Sen - this would have been a clash of the titans a year or two ago, but now the Norwegian is heavily favoured (68%); ZvZ is a Snute specialty and he's 21-4 of late; the Taiwanese player is strong in ZvZ in his own region, but losing to Suppy just a few months back is not a good sign and I see no hope for him here
GungFuBanDa vs Petraeus - the Kiwi is a strong favourite (64%); the German has barely played PvZ since the patch (5-3, including a win over his opponent), whereas the Kiwi has played a ton, unfortunately it's mostly against low to mid-tier players--it's hard to see where either is in the match-up, so I'll stick to the odds
Losers
GungFuBanDa vs Sen - the German is favoured (58%) and given the limited available track record for both players (the Zerg has only five ZvP series played against foreigners in the last five months) I'll lean on those odds
Winners
Snute vs Petraeus - once again the Norwegian is favoured (56%) and the Kiwi hasn't had a win over a good Zerg opponent since beating Nerchio back in April, so it's easy to stick with Aligulac
Finals
Petraeus vs GungFuBanDa - I think we'll see the WCS trend of the rematch going to the previous loser come through here

Aligulac and TL have Snute and Petraeus making it through, whereas I have the Norwegian and GungFuBanDa.

Group C

Polt vs viOLet - the Terran is favoured (53%), but has only one win over a Korean Zerg in 2015 (he's 0-10 otherwise), while his roommate and opponent is 7-2 against Korean Terrans--it's funny to say that someone who has failed as hard as viOLet in WCS could win here, but the numbers suggest he will
Hydra vs Elazer - the ROOT player is obviously the favourite (84%) and I see no reason to debate that
Losers
Polt vs Elazer - Captain America is heavily favoured (71%) and despite the Polish player beating ForGG recently I see no hope for him here (it's worth noting that Polt did lose to Petraeus recently)
Winners
Hydra vs viOLet - the percentages make you think the ROOT player is facing a foreigner (72%); given the latter's 1-8 vs Koreans in the matchup )including two losses to Hydra), it's not surprising
Finals
Polt vs viOLet - the raw numbers above would give this to the Zerg player again, but we also have the usual WCS feature of rematches going to the loser--this series means a lot more to Captain America than his roommate (who also has a much better tournament track record), so I'll take him here

Aligulac has Hydra and viOLet moving forward while I (and TL) have the ROOT player and Polt.

Group D

ForGG vs iaguz - the Korean is massively favoured (89%) and the only question is does the Aussie have any chance at all--I don't see it, although it's worth mentioning he beat Journey back in March
Jaedong vs Lilbow - interestingly, the French player is heavily favoured (63%), despite the Tyrant not having lost to a foreign Protoss since February (he's 22-0 since), whereas Lilbow hasn't had much success against Korean Zergs; I take the "upset" here
Losers
iaguz vs Lilbow - the French player is heavily favoured (74%) and has only lost to the best foreign Terrans over the last four months; the Aussie has beat good Protoss players recently (PtitDrogo and  MaNa), but I don't see him winning here
Winners
ForGG vs Jaedong - the Terran is favoured (55%); oddly, he hasn't played a Korean Zerg in almost six months, while the Tyrant has barely played any Korean Terrans--it's tough to call, as Jaedong seems to have improved of late while ForGG has looked shaky, but my feelings aren't that strong so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Jaedong vs Lilbow - will the rematch curse come to fruition?  I'd like Lilbow to get through and that jives with Aliguac, so I'll put the French player through

Aligulac and I have ForGG and Lilbow go through, while TL has the French player and Jaedong.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)