The R16 is in the books and before getting on to the next set of predictions here's a quick look at how the things turned out for the just completed round:
Me: 6-2
TL/Aligulac: 5-3
The results are similar to season two and season one (as R16's go in 2015 I'm 20-4, Aligulac is 17-7, and TL is 16-8). The biggest surprise was Zanster making it through in Group A (no one predicted it). Hydra losing to Elazer was a surprise in itself, but (just like when he lost to MorroW in season one) he beat him in the rematch.
The Round of 8 (I'll add TL's predictions when they appear).
Zanster vs GunGFuBanDa - the Swede gets the slightest of edges (52%), holding a 2-0 record against his opponent; both players have had mixed results in the match-up of late and both did well in it in the previous round; GunGFuBanDa seems to have a predictable style in the match-up and I think that's exploitable, so I'll give this one to Zanster
Lilbow vs Hydra - while the ROOT player is beatable, and the odds aren't too egregious (53%), I see it going to the Korean; it's a rough draw for Lilbow who, given virtually any other opponent, would be a lock to move forward--if he wins here he has a clear path to the final
Polt vs ForGG - this could be the best series of the round (it's also a re-match from season one); Aligulac favours the latter (63%), and while ForGG has the head-to-head record edge (9-5), he did lose their previous encounter 3-2--he also has a reputation for choking in tournaments, while Polt is known to elevate his play; that said, he did go toe-to-toe with INnoVation not long ago and I like the idea of him having one lass hurrah before he does his military service
Petraeus vs MaNa - the Kiwi is favoured (54%), but the Polish player is a PvZ monster and I don't think his loss to Zanster is a sign of systemic weakness, so I like the upset here
Aligulac has Zanster, Hydra, ForGG, and Petraeus moving on; my list is similar except I have MaNa instead of Petraeus. Assuming my results:
Zanster vs Hydra - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (72%) and the Swede has not won a ZvZ series against a Korean since 2013, so there's not much room for doubt here. If this is GunGFuBanDa the Korean is given even better odds (85%).
ForGG vs MaNa - the Korean has the edge (65%), despite a losing record against his Polish opponent (5-8) and recent struggles in TvP against foreigners; on the other hand, MaNa has not had much success against Korean Terrans lately (2-5, including a loss to ForGG); as nice as the Cinderella-story would be for MaNa on his home soil, I'll stick with the Korean. If this is Polt instead, he's even more heavily favoured (76%). If Petraeus is here instead of the Polish Protoss, ForGG is only slightly favoured (56%), while the Kiwi is actually favoured against Polt (53%), having a good record against second-tier Korean Terrans as well as a win over Captain America himself (at MSI).
Aligulac and I favour the two Koreans. The finals:
Hydra vs ForGG - the ROOT player is heavily favoured (72%), although the Terran beat him the only time they've met (2-0); Hydra is 7-4 against Korean Terrans of late, while ForGG has only played one Korean in the match-up over the same period (beating Jaedong in the R16); looking at Hydra's recent history he seems to struggle against meching Koreans, so perhaps that's the edge that ForGG needs--I like the upset here.
Aligulac has Hydra repeating as champion, while I have ForGG earning his first WCS title.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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