WCS Shanghai Predictions Continued

Before I get into further predictions for WCS Shanghai (continued from here), I'll just briefly comment on the TL "preview" that dropped on Friday--it's not predictive, but a strange mix of profiles and the writers' expectations for what a good tournament would be from each player.  It doesn't function well in the former sense while the latter is posed without much justification, such that I'm not sure what I'm supposed to get out of it.  [I've updated the following given the results of the R16; Aligulac and I finished 5-3 in predictions.]

Back to predictions: assuming the results posted previously and following the usual breakdown after group stages, here's how the match-ups line up:

PtitDrogo (A1) vs TooDming (B2) - the DreamHack champion is heavily favoured (81%) and won their only encounter back in HOTS; despite the French player's struggles since the patch, his opponent has an unimpressive ZvP track record against decent foreigners, so I'll stick with the odds; Aligulac has Harstem here instead of the French player and the odds are a little closer (68%), with the Chinese player having won their only ever meeting (in HOTS)

Snute (D1) vs Elazer (C2) - the Norwegian is favoured (60%), although he's 3-5 against his Polish opponent in LOTV (1-4 recently); that said, when it really counts there's a much better track record for Snute so I'll stick with the odds; Aligulac has MarineLorD here instead of the Norwegian and he's more heavily favoured (69%), despite losing their only match in LOTV. [This has become Nerchio vs Snute, whose odds are below, favouring the Polish player]

Jieshi (B1) vs Harstem (A2) - not surprisingly the Dutch player is favoured (62%), and while his opponent has a better PvP record it's largely against weaker players--there's not enough in the Chinese player's match history to suggest he'll win out against the veteran European; Aligulac's match is Has vs PtitDrogo and gives the French player the edge (63%). [This is the Dutch player vs Sioras, and not surprisingly the former is favoured 86%]

Nerchio (C1) vs MarineLorD (D2) - the Polish player gets the smallest of edges (50%), despite a fairly dominant LOTV record against his opponent (5-2)--there's always the potential of this match going either way, but the numbers point to Nerchio; Aligulac has Snute here instead of the French Terran and heavily favours (65%) the Polish player (despite the two being 3-3 in their most recent matches). [This is Scarlett vs puCK with the Canadian favoured (59%); I thought she was lucky to beat Elazer, but historically is a much better player]

I have PtitDrogo, Snute, Harstem, and Nerchio moving forward; Aligulac has MarineLorD  advancing rather than Snute.  Following the above: [With the changes above my predictions stand except we have Scarlett instead of Snute]

PtitDrogo vs Snute - the Norwegian is favoured (57%), having won their only meeting in LOTV (pre-patch); if you ignore some weird ZvP results for Snute in the TING tournament he's 7-1 and I think will comfortably win here; Aligulac has this as Harstem vs MarineLorD and the Terran is heavily favoured (77%). [This would be against Nerchio and the Polish player is favoured (62%) despite a losing record against the French player--all pre-patch, however]

Harstem vs Nerchio - understandably the Polish player is a massive favourite (77%), although his Dutch opponent has won two of their last three meetings (Nerchio has gone 18-0 since the last loss though, so I'll stick with the odds); Aligulac has PtitDrogo here instead, but the Polish player is still favoured (62%). [This would be Harstem vs Scarlett with the Canadian having the edge (55%)]

I have Snute and Nerchio in the finals, whereas Aligulac puts MarineLord vs Nerchio.  The odds of the former match are above and given the Polish players long history of choking in big tournaments I'd go the other way if that's the match-up we get.  Conversely, if it's as I've predicted, the odds are also above and again I'll go with the upset as I think when it matters Snute is much more likely to deliver. [Instead our final would be Nerchio vs Scarlett where again the Polish player is a massive favourite (87%)]

Aligulac crowns Nerchio as the champion, whereas I have Snute. [My victor stays the same.]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)