Group A
iAsonu vs Harstem - Aligulac makes this a virtual tie, with the Dutch player getting the slightest of edges (50%); they are 2-2 against one another, but Harstem won the most recent series (in HOTs however); the Protoss player hasn't played a PvZ in nearly a month and was struggling the couple of weeks before that (2-4), but his overall record since the patch is 7-4; the Chinese player hasn't lost a ZvP in LOTV, granting that other than Lilbow (and maybe State) none of his opponents have been particularly intimidating; so do we go with the more known player with better pedigree, or the undefeated player on his home turf? I like the "upset" here
Coffee vs PtitDrogo - the French player is a massive favourite (84%); it's no secret that Drogo has been struggling since the patch (winless vs Terrans with a 2-8 map score)--he struggled with Terrans even before the patch, so this is not his best match-up; however, his Chinese opponent's track record against Protoss is also bad (4-4, but without a notable win), so I'll stick with the favourite here
Following the above predictions:
Harstem vs Coffee - once again Aligulac massively favours (81%) the Protoss player and while he's had some of the same struggles PtitDrogo has in the match-up, he's fared better (4-3), so I'll stick with the odds here; if Aligulac is right and this is iAsonu, he's even more favoured (85%)
iAsonu vs PtitDrogo - the French player is favoured (66%); he hasn't played a lot of PvZ since the patch, but hasn't shown the same level of weakness as vs Terran (3-1, losing to Lambo); the Chinese player's stats in the match-up are strong, but are inflated by weaker players so I'll stick with the odds here; if this is as-per Aligulac, then it's a PvP with PtitDrogo vs Harstem ; once again the French player is favoured (53%)
iAsonu vs Harstem - this leads us to a re-match from the group round and statistically the loser wins the re-match if their skill level is fairly close--I believe that's the case here and I'll take the Dutch Protoss to win
Both Aligulac and I have Harstem and PtitDrogo advancing (albeit by different routes).
Group B
Jieshi vs Sioras - the battle of two obscure players; the Chinese Protoss is favoured and after early struggles in the match-up has done well in PvZ over the last month or so (4-1); the Mongolian player has barely played ZvP (4-2 in LOTV), and while neither player has particularly impressive wins, Jieshi's are better in my opinion (beating JimRising and Rex; the best Sioras win was over Probe), so I'll stick with the odds
Has vs TooDming - this should be a very entertaining match-up; the cheesy Taiwanese player is favoured (56%), although the two haven't faced each other in LOTV; Has hasn't played many PvZ's since the patch (1-1), while TooDming's record (5-2) is inflated by inferior players (against the best, Cyan, he's 1-2); I think when players properly prepare for Has he loses, but I've been surprised before; I don't have a strong feeling on this so I'll reluctantly stick with the odds
Following the above predictions:
Sioras vs TooDming - the Chinese player is favoured (58%), with the historical edge over his opponent (2-0, granting those matches were in HOTS); this is the Mongolian's best match-up and he has a recent win over Petraeus under his belt, while TooDming has stuggled in ZvZ, losing to all the better Chinese players he's faced (XiGua, iAsonu, and Clannad); on paper you'd take the veteran here and while I'd love for Sioras to get a win, he just doesn't have the track record yet for me to count on it
Has vs Jieshi - probably the shortest match we'll see; once again Has is slightly favoured (52%), but his opponent has a strong edge head-to-head (3-1, having won both their LOTV contests); while the Chinese player isn't perfect in PvP, he has his opponents number and fairly impressive results in the match-up, so I'll take the "upset
Has vs TooDming - I think the bag of tricks for Has will be exhausted at this point and we'll see the re-match go to the previous loser; if Aligulac is right than Jieshi is here and he's a huge underdog (34%)
Aligulac and I both have TooDming advancing, but it has Has as the other player while I have Jieshi.
Group C
Scarlett vs XiGua - two players whose best results are years behind them, the Canadian Zerg is favoured (69%); she's only lost 1 of her last 12 ZvZ's (losing to Snute), albeit nearly all of those wins are against lesser Zerg players; her Chinese opponent has a very good ZvZ record as well (except against Silky); it's really difficult to compare their records due to regional limitations, so in the absence of strong evidence either way I'll stick with the odds
Elazer vs Nerchio - not surprisingly the latter is favoured (69%), with a 10-2 record against his opponent; I see no reason for this not to follow the odds
Assuming the above:
Scarlett vs Nerchio - the Polish player is massively favoured (78%) and there's nothing in the Canadian's recent past to suggest any other outcome (although if this was 2013 I'd certainly go the other way)
XiGua vs Elazer - again the Polish player is massively favoured (78%) and his record is far more impressive than his Chinese opponents, so I see no reason to argue
Scarlett vs Elazer - the odds are lopsided again (61%) and seem just as justified
Aligulac and I have Nerchio and Elazer advancing; their opponents are certainly talented enough to upset them, but there's nothing in their recent histories to suggest it will happen here.
Group D
puCK vs Snute - the Norwegian is heavily favoured (71%), despite having lost their only meeting back in October; Snute has had occasional struggles in ZvP, but on the whole has an excellent record post-patch (13-4); puCK doesn't often play against Europeans, but has a solid post-patch record (7-2); there's nothing that sticks out in either's history to suggest an upset here, although it remains a possibility
MajOr vs MarineLorD - the French player is favoured (56%), despite never having beaten his opponent (0-2; granting that those games were a long time ago in HOTS); MarineLorD is 14-3 in the match-up and while the Mexican player even more impressive (24-4), there's a big difference in the caliber of the competition and I'll stick with the favourite here
Assuming the above:
puCK vs MajOr - the Terran is favoured (57%) with a 4-1 match record against the American in the recent past (puCK's one win was pre-patch in a SEA Masters Cup); the underdog just hasn't beaten a Terran outside the NA scene in a long time and MajOr hasn't lost a TvP since the patch, so take the odds
Snute vs MarineLorD - a battle of foreign titans, the French Terran is favoured (60%), despite a poor track record against his opponent (he hasn't beaten him in over a year); MarineLorD has been pretty vulnerable in TvZ of late (7-4), while Snute has barely lost (9-1), so I like the upset here
MajOr vs MarineLorD - a rematch and while normally the loser wins on these occasions, I still like the French player here (I can't remember the last time MajOr truly performed at a non-Latin American event in-person); if this is as per-Aligulac, then Snute is slightly favoured (52%)
Both Aligulac and I have Snute and MarineLorD advancing, although (again) by different routes.
I'll pressed for time today, so I'll post predictions following the R16 at a later date (probably tomorrow).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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