Unlike last season where NA predictions were an easy 7-0, Hitman pulled off an upset (largely on the back of macro games), as did (in terms of the odds) the semi-retired Kane. Polt had the expected one-sided stomp over JonSnow (who looked good in game one, but then fell apart), while qxc and viOLet played a sloppy series that the Korean won out. Overall Aligulac and I were 4-3 while TL was 3-4. TL's predictions for Europe are posted and I'll reference them below:
MarineLorD vs DmC - unsurprisingly the French Terran is favoured (78%); over the last few months the Terran has only lost to Lilbow and Harstem in TvP; over the same period the surprise qualifier has a good record in the match-up (despite an odd weakness against Kas), but really hasn't beaten an opponent of this caliber so I (along with TL) stick with the odds
MaNa vs Happy - the Russian is favoured (59%), and is on a 14-0 run in TvP series (including a win over his opponent); the Polish Protoss is on an 0-6 run in the match-up and just hasn't been the same player he was in March; Happy tends to lose due to his predictability and that's clearly why TL believes he'll lose, but if the trends mean anything I'll stick with Aligulac and the "upset"
Snute vs Serral - the former swarmhost master vs his protégé, this would have been an incredible (or awful) match-up prior to the nerf in April; Aligulac favours the Norwegian (71%), and while Snute isn't unbeatable in the match-up, he's got a much stronger track record than the Finn--who oddly hasn't played that many ZvZs in 2015--so I (and TL) agree with the odds
Ret vs HeRoMaRinE - I was very surprised that Ret not only made it to Premier but to the R16 as well; it's no surprise that the German is favoured (66%); the Dutch Zerg hasn't played many ZvT's in 2015, but actually has a good record since February (11-1), including a victory against his opponent; the German also hasn't played many TvZ's this year, but has a mixed record in the match-up since February (5-6); I'd like the fixture of the ESL scene to win here, but the background data supports a return to Premier for Ret for me (TL sticks with the odds)
ShoWTimE vs NaNiwa - Aligulac makes this almost a coin toss (51% for the German); PvP is the matchup the Swede has struggled with the most since he returned and getting crushed by GunGFuBanDa in his last Challenger series doesn't help; the German is very good in the matchup (15-1 of late) and both I (and TL) see him winning out
Aligulac, TL, and I agree on MarineLorD, Snute, and ShoWTimE; Aligulac and I have Happy and only I take Ret.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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