Group A has come and gone with two underdogs playing standard macro games and getting crushed (Bails and Semper), along with an upset where Neeb threw in a delightful cheese to help him reach his sixth time in Premier (but his first as a Protoss). StarDust becomes the first Korean not to make it through Challenger this year and I have to wonder what kind of soul searching he's doing in the aftermath (especially given his trash-talking his opponent beforehand--granted, he capitulated in good humour). These results leave Aligulac and I's predictions at 2-1, with TL at 1-2.
Just a note: it's worth remembering Challenger matches for all regions outside NA and EU are already complete. I don't think I mentioned it before, but I liked Challenger picks being made via Twitter (granted, perhaps a time limit will prevent players like FireCake taking forever). At any rate, back to predictions. I ran these numbers when the matches were first announced and I'll note any changes since:
Polt vs JonSnow - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (86%; it was 87%); he won their only meeting 2-0 (granted that was almost a year ago), and ZvT is the American's worst matchup (losing to Apocalypse a couple of weeks ago is not a good sign); I (and TL) will stick with the odds
viOLet vs qxc - two players with long track records of crashing and burning in WCS; not surprisingly, the Korean is favoured (73%, it was 67%), and this is a rematch for him from last season (where he crushed the American 3-0--he also beat him in the Gamescon qualifier last week 2-0); for qxc the issue isn't the Korean's ZvT, but his own struggles in the matchup; if there's any solace for the Terran it's that the last Korean Zerg he beat was his opponent (twice), but his most recent win was a long time ago (November); I'd love an upset here, but (along with TL) I don't see it happening
Xenocider vs Hitman - potentially one of the most fun series of the day, the better-known Terran is favoured (54%; it was 56%), although the two have never played before in a tournament; when I think of this year's Xenocider I think of a guy who crashes and burns in tournaments--in 2015 the only meaningful match he's won was knocking off puCK to make it to Premier in season two; on the flipside, Hitman hardly plays in anything--this WCS qualifier was the first he's participated in since season one in 2014; the Protoss has no recent PvT track record to look at (his last BO3 was in December); the better known-American hasn't played many TvP series since April (losing to Rain and San), although up to that point he was solid in the matchup (8-4); this series is hard to call--it could be a 3-0 for the Terran; all I can say for sure is that the Protoss is going to do weird builds; I'd love an upset here, but (along with TL) I'll stick with the odds
HuK vs Kane - this could have been a fantastic series just a few months ago, but now we have a Zerg player who has lost his passion and is semi-retired vs a Protoss player in decline; Aligulac favours HuK (60%; it was 64%) and neither I or TL see a reason to argue
Similar to last season, there's broad agreement over the result of these match-ups, with Aligulac, TL, and I all seeing Polt, viOLet, Xenocider, and HuK moving forward.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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