The clock is ticking for me to get predictions out in time for today, so we'll skip the usual preamble and jump into the Aligulac machine for Group A. It's worth noting that I ran the numbers for the NA side of Challenger the moment the matches were decided, so I'll note any variation between the numbers then and now (TL also has their predictions up as well and I'll note them below).
Group A
Jaedong vs Semper - the Tyrant is heavily favoured (77%; it was 78%); is there any hope for the Canadian? Jaedong used to be untouchable against foreign terrans, but he has lost a couple of times lately (granted, that was to Bunny and MarineLorD); also, Semper has been excellent in the matchup going back into December (28-4), but it's still a very big stretch to see an upset here and I do not (TL also takes the Tyrant)
StarDust vs Neeb - once again the Korean is favoured (80%; it was 81%); once again we have to ask, is there hope for an upset? The American hasn't been a Protoss for very long (just a few months), where his kryptonite has been Terran, not Protoss (other than puCK he has hasn't lost a PvP series yet); StarDust is not unbeatable in the match-up (he probably should have lost to HuK in last season's Challenger match), but he hasn't lost a PvP series vs a NA Protoss since 2013, so I'll take the favourite here (TL also takes the Korean)
MaSa vs Bails - the Canadian is a slight favourite (50%; it was 53%), with a 4-1 edge against his opponent; when I think of MaSa, I think of monster macro player whose issues are his decision-making; he's lost his last three TvP's, but he's historically good in the matchup; the American is 10-2 of late and also strong in PvT; moving to the ROOT house is supposed to make MaSa a better player and I'm going to assume it's helping and take him here (TL takes Bails)
So Aligulac and I have the same trio moving forward (the two Koreans and MaSa), while TL differs in the latter case in taking Bails.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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