I've tried to squeeze in predictions for WCS Challenger before games were played, but was unable to do so for day two--I've included them anyway below for fans who like the elements that go into that. I have no idea why NASL crammed six matches a day into their schedule, but if they had a choice it was a bad idea (ESL's four per day is much easier to digest). I'm not sure what exactly Kane's complaints about the NASL admin were specifically, but it's food for thought in case we hear more of the same from other participants.
Day One
Do you like blink all-ins? Odds are strong that HuK is going to make this a micro war in the early game. Aligulac gives HuK strong odds (73%), although the pair have never played and the Canadian is 4-4 in his last PvP's. Bails is 6-2, but hasn't faced nearly the same level of competition--give this to HuK.
There's no surprise that the Korean is a massive favourite (90%) so is there any hope for desRow? He's never played Apocalypse before, but his record against good Koreans is awful. The Terran has lost to foreign Protoss lately, dropping games to GunGFuBanDa, NightEnD, and Lilbow. These are all European players, however, and the connection can't be discounted as a factor. This is going to be a short match.
The Canadian Zerg has overwhelming odds (92%). The pair have never played before, but the American Protoss has his work cut out. His most notable win was over Sting in Septemeber, but the Korean is well past his prime (and a Terran to boot). There's no scenario I envision where Scarlett doesn't seal the deal.
The Chinese Protoss is in a tough spot facing viOLet (odds at 86% in favour of the Korean). They have never faced each other and the fact that viOLet lost to both Petraeus and Illusion recently has to give Top some hope. Indeed, the Korean may be a bit rusty, as that spate of matches were his first in a tournament since July. On the flip side, Top has only ever beaten a Korean Zerg once (the now retired Miya), so I have to side with the odds on this one.
Another lopsided match (88%), the Korean Terran has spent last year feasting on middling North American opposition. KoMa has barely played over the last year, only participating in the season two challenger qualifier over the course of HOTS, which makes his track record virtually nonexistent. aLive hasn't lost to a foreign Terran since Wings of Liberty, albeit that only covers three matches (wins over LucifroN, DeMusliM, and MajOr). I can't see any hope on the face of it, especially in a best-of-five where devious cheese or weird build orders won't be enough.
The closest match (the odds are 55% for the Mexican Terran), it's also the only one of the group where there is a past history (3-1 for MajOr), but that stretches back to Wings of Liberty and isn't informative. Kane is 6-4 in his last ten matches against foreign Terrans, while MajOr is 9-1 against foreign Zergs (not the same calibre of competition, admittedly). Despite the odds and recent match records, I think Kane will pull this one out--he's played a lot lately against high level competition, whereas MajOr has not. My one upset of the day, if it can be called that.
Day Two
The Korean Protoss lost to Has yesterday, something Aligulac has a hard time accepting even after the loss (Sage gets a 76% edge). The upset dodged the raw numbers because Sage has been feasting on non-Korean opposition (going 21-22 in January with his only loss to Hitman). The signs Has could win were there however, as he'd gone 3-4 in his recent matches against Koreans (beating MMA, TRUE, and Panic). That being said, I would not have gone for the upset here.
The Korean Protoss was an overwhelming favourite and that carried through the actual result. The only HOTS win over a Korean by Courage was against Sting in January and his overall record against all Protoss was abysmal (30%).
Another overwhelming favourite who came through, even though Arthur is hardly among the best Koreans (with many losses to foreigners in his career, most recently to Ourk in December). iAsonu only had two matches against Koreans in his history, losing to other Protoss (Sage), but defeating the Terran (Legend). As hard as it is to imagine, the Chinese Zerg is even worse against Protoss than Courage (22%), so the result here was eminently predictable.
NASL darling Jim got rolled by Bomber last night despite some ambiguity in the percentages (even now only 64% for the Terran). There was reason to believe in Jim, who took Soulkey to the max at WCG (losing in five games). The Chinese Protoss' recent record against good Korean Terrans was weak, however, even though his overall win rate in the match-up was strong (64%). Bomber had almost no matches against foreign Protoss in HOTS, but was a perfect 1-0 (beating Grubby back in August). Despite a less massive percentage, I would have gone with the victor here.
The American Protoss player was the favourite going into the match and carried the day over the Chinese Zerg last night. Unlike the Zergs above, Ian had a good percentage against non-Korean Protoss (58%), but lacked recent wins over any decent competition. puCK's results against Zerg were mixed, but his overall percentage in the match is strong (62%). I would have picked the winner here.
Even after last night's results SaroVati remains the slight favourite (52%) in the match-up. The Canadian Protoss has a good record in PvP in HOTS, but mostly against middling competition. Minigun was in the midst of a four game losing streak against non-Korean Protoss, but had more meaningful success prior to that (wins over puCK and State). Minigun could hardly be called an overwhelming favourite and I'm not sure where I would have gone with this toss-up, although I doubt I could have predicted a 3-0 final score.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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