The WCS Europe Challenger bracket has been released and here are my thoughts/predictions. There are only four mirror match-ups (all PvP), the rest consisting of PvZ (9), TvZ (8), and PvT (3). Mirrors tend to be the least exciting games to watch (of the three I think TvT is the most exciting), so it's a good split. I've highlighted my picks below along with the reasoning behind them. Kaelaris has begun predicting these series as well and I'll note his picks below as they come in. [I've updated the odds as of February 3rd.]
This looks like a mismatch on paper, as ForGG's has an extensive resume and Lambo does not (making WCS is his greatest result thus far). The two have never played before in a tournament, but the German Zerg is 0-9 versus Koreans. Lambo's ZvT is not great either (38%), but if there's anything in his favour it is that his results are about as good as they've ever been (beating ThorZaIN and TitaN to qualify). Aligulac puts ForGG's odds at 97% and I won't argue against that.
On the surface this match is a coin flip. LiveZerg holds a 3-2 edge against Harstem (although he lost their most recent match 2-1 December) and his PvZ is historically stronger than the Dutchman's. In their last ten games against solid foreign competition LiveZerg is 7-3 while Harstem is 5-5. Aligulac gives the Russian Zerg slightly favourable odds (54%) and he deserves the edge.
It's difficult not to see this as a romp for TLO, who is facing a player who only made challenger on a technicality. In their only previous match (3 years ago) the German rolled the Dane 2-0 and Aligulac puts TLO's odds at a modest 88%. I see no chance for StrinterN.
This match features the other player (Revolver) who made challenger on a technicality. The two have never played each other and the Russian Zerg has a stronger ZvP track record than his opponent, but there's no question that BabyKnight is the more accomplished player. Aligulac puts the odds at 62% for the Danish Protoss, and given that Revolver hasn't beaten a top foreign Protoss since knocking off elfi in August (IEM New York), I have to go with the favourite.
While the two players have never faced each other in a tournament before, Aligulac has no hesitation in given the French Terran a big edge (79%). hOpe's play has been better of late and he did beat MarineLord in the qualifier, but that doesn't compare to Dayshi's track record (beating TLO twice along with wins over Nerchio and Scarlett at Home Story Cup VIII). Once again I have to go with the favourite here.
The Russian Zerg has nothing to be happy about when he faces jjakji. While the Korean has lost to foreign Zergs of late (Tefel and Scarlett most recently), and HappyZerg has beaten Korean Terrans before (MMA back in September), I have no hesitation in agreeing with Aligulac's prediction that jjakji will roll to victory (94%).
The German Protoss is the much more accomplished and experienced player, but there's reason to hope for the Israeli (the two have never played each other). Adonminus is very strong in PvP (63%) and has recent wins over BabyKnight. However, HasuObs has only dropped two of his last ten foreign PvP's (losing to BlinG and GenjiTakiya), so warrants Aligulac's edge in the match-up (74%). I think a surprise is possible here, but I will go with the German.
The Norwegian Zerg is by far the more accomplished player which earns him Aligulac's strong prediction (83%). The two players have never faced each other before and the Dutch Terran hasn't done himself any favours by losing his last eight straight games against foreign Zergs. uThermal did have impressive results in September-October, but sadly has not kept those up. Snute, despite struggles to qualify, has much stronger and more consistent overall results and there's nothing to suggest he won't win.
This is a more contentious match-up, as Aligulac does not favour one overwhelming over the other (odds are 54% in ShowTime's favour). MorroW won the only match played between the two (back in May), but the Protoss is in the midst of a 9-0 run against Terrans that includes solid players like kauP and HeroMarine. The Swedish Terran's results against Protoss are much more mixed, going 5-5 against decent foreign competition. MorroW brings a wealth of experience with him, but I don't think it will be enough to win.
Not surprisingly Grubby is the overwhelming favourite (80%), although the two players have never met before. The Dutchman hasn't played a meaningful match in quite some time and has mixed PvP results against foreigners in HOTS (4-5). sLh has won his last six straight mirror match-ups, but the Polish player hasn't knocked over world-beaters in the process (the most notable win was over Socke). I think the match could be much closer than the percentages presented above, but in the end I have to go with Grubby.
Tefel is perhaps best known for going full foreigner against Mvp last year. The Polish Zerg is considered a heavy favourite (77%) against the French Protoss player, who he beat 2-1 back in November in their only tournament match (ZOTAC). Of late Tefel has been rolling Protoss players, going 7-1 (losing only to HuK), but almost none of his opponents were notable. Lilbow has had mixed results against Zerg, with his biggest win coming against Bly (ZOTAC), but he's 4-4 overall in his recent matches. Tefel should win, but he's someone capable of getting knocked out.
Surprisingly enough, these players have not faced each other before. Strelok is considered the heavy favourite (80%), and FireCake's results against Terran aren't particularly impressive (his best was beating Dayshi in November). The Ukrainian hasn't exactly set the world on fire with his TvZ of late, not having beaten a decent foreign Zerg since Starbuck back in October. I think Strelok is very vulnerable in this match-up, although FireCake may struggle enough with it to justify Aligulac's odds. I smell an upset here though and think the Frenchman will push through (Kaelaris goes with Strelok).
There's no surprise that these players have not faced each other before or that Happy is considered the overwhelming favourite (86%). ABomB has no notable results against good foreign Terrans, although the Russian did get drubbed by Verdi back in December. I can't find a good reason to go against the grain here and expect ABomB to be knocked out quickly (Kaelaris agrees).
It's incredible to me that these two SC2 veterans have only faced each other once, with NightEnD winning that match 2-1 (back in July). SortOf is 6-1 in his recent games against foreign Protoss and that includes wins over BabyKnight and Socke. The Swede's Romanian opponent has a win over DIMAGA under his belt, but otherwise has struggled against Zerg. Aligulac gives SortOf the edge (66%) and I see no reason to argue.
Two more veteran players who don't have a match between them. The Danish Terran is given an edge (54%) over the Russian Protoss now known as Weak. Bunny has a good track record in PvT that includes wins over Welmu and Adonminus. On the flip side, Verdi is 19-1 in the match-up of late, only losing to Strelok in the qualifier (the run includes wins over Happy and HeroMarine). That streak goes back to October and clearly the Russian has figured something out--I believe he'll upset Bunny.
They've played twice and split the series (elfi beat San in a best of one with Acer Team Story, but got crushed by him in ASUS ROG). The Finnish Protoss is capable of beating Korean players, but there's no consistency in his results. San is also unpredictable, which means the odds (71%) are closer than you might imagine [the updated odds are not as close]. I have a hard time seeing elfi beating his opponent three times however, so I give this series to San.
They've played each other only once (Kas winning 1-0 back in March), but the Swedish Zerg is the slight favourite (62%). Zanster's recent results against foreign Terrans are mediocre (6-6), while the Ukrainian Terran was dominant until very recently (dropping 3 of his last 4). I don't see an upset here and expect Kas to move on.
This is another match-up that's statistically (56%) a toss of the dice with Aligulac giving the edge to ToD. Miniraser has won the only match between them (2-1 back in Wings of Liberty), which isn't very informative. The Swedish Zerg is 9-2 against foreign Protosses of late, while ToD is only 4-4. It's worth pointing out that the French player has played against much higher calibre players. ToD has not played much competitively over the last two months, but I'll give him the edge here.
Normally when a Korean plays a foreigner the edge goes to the latter, but not in this case as Bly is given the odds (55%). The pair has played each other a number of times, with Daisy winning the last match (2-1 at ZOTAC). The Ukrainian Zerg's success against the Korean all comes from Wings of Liberty (and, as such, is extremely suspect). Daisy has lost to foreign zergs recently, including TLO and FireCake, but those two losses are matched against 17 wins. I see no reason to doubt the Korean will come away with the victory.
Two more players who have never faced each other before, Welmu is given overwhelming odds (92%). The Finnish Protoss is 7-3 against foreigners in his last ten PvP's (all his losses are against elfi), while Mekar has the same record and the calibre of their opponents is pretty similar. That being said, Welmu is a much more accomplished player and should win this.
The British Protoss is given excellent odds (75%) at beating the German Terran. BlinG has beaten KrasS both times they've played each other (a month ago and then back in Wings of Liberty) and has a strong PvT of late (7-3). KrasS, conversely, has been average in the match-up (5-5) and all of this has me agreeing with Aligulac's prediction.
The Russian Zerg who still goes Brood Lord/Infestor was a consistent doormat in premier last year, making it every season and getting knocked out in the R32 every time. sLivko gets the odds (65%) here and has an overall lead in the match history between the two, but DieStar won their last match (2-1 in December) and all their other battles occurred in Wings of Liberty. Conversely, DieStar has been mediocre against Zerg of late (5-5), with his only meaningful win coming over sLivko. The Russian has won four straight ZvT's since losing to the Polish Terran and that includes wins over Strelok and HeroMarine, but still I smell an upset here and will go against the grain.
Although the two players have never faced each other before, there seems little reason to doubt that NaNiwa deserves his overwhelming odds (97%)--the best odds given for any of these matches. StakimaN has no significant wins over Protoss and NaNiwa is 13-1 in his last foreign PvZ's with his only loss coming against TargA. NaNiwa will win this easily (Kaelaris agrees).
Two of the youngest players face each other here, with HeroMarine having won their only meeting 2-0 (back in August). Aligulac gives the German Terran the odds (64%) and he's 15-4 in his most recent matches against foreigners in TvZ's. Starbuck is also on a good run (5-1), but without beating the same calibre of players. I have to go with the odds here and see the German moving forward. Kaelaris see's this going to Starbuck.
I like the best of five format as it should ensure the better player makes his way through. There's also ample time to prepare for the matches, so there's no excuse not to be familiar with your opponent. I believe 11 Protoss, 7 Terrans, and 6 Zergs will move forward. I've mostly gone with the favourites, predicting only four upsets (Firecake over Strelok, Verdi over Bunny, Daisy over Bly (which doesn't seem like an upset), and DieStar over sLivko).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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