The first week of WCS Challenger brackets are complete and here's my look at how the matches went and how they meshed with predictions. All the America VODs are on NASL's YouTube page, while ESL's are only available here (which is unfortunate for anyone who can't easily stream high quality video). I missed most of the second and third day of the European games (alas), but have since watched the replays. My European predictions (thus far) stand at 8-4 (Aligulac is 9-3). Terrans have struggled the most, going 1-5 in their games (Zergs are 5-2, Protoss 6-4). I missed getting my predictions out in time for day two of America, but going with my intentions there I stand at 8-4 (Aligulac is also 8-4). Terrans are fairing better here (3-2), while Protoss are 7-5 and Zergs are struggling at 1-5. The racial results on both counts should be taken with a grain of salt as they don't reflect the skills of the players in the matchups. Korean players, oddly enough, are only 4-4 thus far. The biggest upsets thus far are desRow over Apocalypse, Lilbow over Tefel, Has over Sage, and Top over viOLet (in that order)--so three of the four have occurred in WCS America.
The overview of the second half of the WCS Challenger games can be found here.
WCS Europe
It was difficult not to predict this as a romp for TLO and that's what it was. In their only previous match (3 years ago) the German rolled the Dane 2-0 and Aligulac put TLO's odds at 88%. In the first game StrinterN did an aggressive zealot push that didn't do much damage, but set up an immortal push that TLO held off with hydras; the German then went mutalisk and the Protoss fell with ease. The second game the Dane tried another zealot rush and got crushed by a ton of lings, but inefficient trades by TLO allowed StrinterN to stay in the game TLO throwing his army away made the game much closer than it needed to be. The final game included yet more zealot aggression where TLO fought favourably. A failed immortal attack was followed by a failed colossus attack which ended the game. I actually think TLO made this series harder on himself than it needed to be, but I didn't see anything from StrinterN that suggests he'll bull through to premier any time soon.
This is a difficult match-up for Aligulac (odds were 54% in ShowTime's favour), and despite the sweep this was the closest 3-0 in WSC thus far. In the first game ShowTime opened oracle which did minimal damage and heading into the late game things were fairly even. MorroW allowed his entire army to be stormed while attempting to take out the third and was unable to recover from that mistake. The next game was very passive going into the macro stage as ShowTime went for a zealot/templar/colossus army that gradually transitioned to air. I have to give MorroW credit for using nukes as something other than a gimmick in the game, but once again he got himself into a fight where his entire army was repeatedly stormed and lost the game because of it. There is hope that MorroW can make his way back so he's one to watch out for in challenger.
Not surprisingly Grubby was the overwhelming favourite (80%) in the match and he came away with a three game sweep. In the first game Grubby went phoenix versus blink and his timing was better, getting ahead of sLh and wrecking him with an immortal/colossus/void ray army. The second game featured stalker pressure from the Polish player versus oracle harass by the Dutchman, with the latter far more effective and made for a straightforward win for Grubby. In the final game Grubby went proxy oracle, but it didn't do the necessary damage. The game went full macro mode with both players causing damage with DTs. Grubby made better tactical decisions, got far ahead, and finished off sLh. There's a ways to go before I can see sLh truly challenge for premier.
Tefel is perhaps best known for going full foreigner against Mvp last year. The Polish Zerg was considered a heavy favourite (77%) against the French Protoss player, whom he beat 2-1 back in November in their only tournament match (ZOTAC). Instead, Tefel's predictable style allowed his French opponent to counter him and create the upset. In the first game Lilbow opened with stalker pressure followed by a light sentry/oracle push at the third, transitioning into mass void ray which crushed Tefel's roach/hydra army. In the second game there was light sentry/oracle pressure again, but this time transitioning into colossus/void, which barely held off a huge roach/hydra push that transitioned into a base trade that Lilbow won easily. In the third game once again the Frenchman was the aggressor, this time with a zealot push that didn't do much and Tefel went for ling/hydra and steamrolled Lilbow. The fourth game saw the return of light stalker pressure followed by a small sentry push, neither of which accomplished much, but his follow-up push with void rays did considerable damage. Lilbow then attacked a hydra army with just gateway units and that was his downfall. In the final match Lilbow went DTs which did excellent damage and set things up for the late game colossus/stalker vs hydra/corrupter. Tefel could easily get himself back in premier, but needs to be more responsive in his play. I like Lilbow's aggressive style, although I'm not sure how well it will work against a more adaptive player.
As much as I hate FireCake's style and the swarm host as a unit, he did a great job mind-gaming Strelok in the series. The series was 1-1 after the first two games with the French Zerg playing his expected style (going for mass bases in the first match, which Strelok successfully countered in the second), but then he simply crushed the Russian Terran with back-to-back roach play. The result matches my prediction, despite Strelok being considered the heavy favourite (80%).
I expected ABomB to be knocked out quickly here and the two players were clearly on a very different levels. Happy got massively ahead in the first two games by simply out-microing his opponent on very basic plays and in the third game they went macro before Happy crushed the Protoss player. The Terran was the overwhelming favourite (86%) going into the match and the statistics were absolutely correct. ABomB is going to have to improve a lot to get another shot at premier.
Normally when a Korean plays a foreigner the edge goes to the latter, but not in this case as Bly was given the odds (55%). Despite a lot of mistakes, the Zerg won the day and made his way back to premier. In the first game Bly went for a huge roach attack, but Daisy was able to defend without significant losses and killed him with the counter attack. Having lost with heavy roach play, Bly decided to do it again and reaped the same result. In the third game the Korean Protoss went for gateway pressure and this time Bly's roaches served a purpose in defending and then wining the game with a counter attack. The fourth game Daisy went for an immortal all-in, but Bly delayed it enough to win out with mutas. The final game saw mutas again and they closed out the series for the Ukrainian Zerg. Daisy is certainly capable of getting into premier, but might need to face a lesser player to do so.
Welmu was given overwhelming odds (92%) to win here and they were fully justified. Mekar opened the series with cheese, going proxy two-gate/cyber core, but didn't do enough damage with it and he immediately bowed out. The next game the Swede faked a proxy, but it meant nothing as Welmu went for blink stalker play followed by DTs which put him far ahead and he crushed Mekar's desperation attack. In the final game they both went macro with Welmu getting more damage done and setting up a better engagement between the two maxed armies to win the game. It was hard to assess Mekar here because Welmu is so good at PvP, but he may well get another shot at premier.
The British Protoss was given excellent odds (75%) to win and followed through. The first game featured a bizarre proxy barracks followed by a proxy factory from the German Terran which accomplished nothing; his British opponent picked up an economic lead and steamrolled with phoenix/colossus play. The second game went macro without much happening and BlinG simply crushed KrasS with zealot/archon. In the third game the German floated to the gold base and set up a ninja expansion for an early advantage, then got aggressive with drops. The cheesy strategy might have worked, but a bad engagement with the colossus/stalker army resulted in the German tapping out (in good humour). The third match is worth checking out as one of the more fun games in WCS. KrasS has been in premier before, but seems to need more confidence in his standard play (otherwise he wouldn't cheese three games in a row).
sLivko had the odds (65%) coming into the match and wound up carrying the day, as DieStar played completely standard the entire series and could not figure his opponent out. In the first game sLivko held off reaper/hellion pressure, but a bad engagement gave his Terran opponent an edge he wouldn't lose, running the Russian over with multi-pronged attacks. The first 15 minutes of the second game was not in the replay pack, but by that time sLivko was slightly ahead with the muta/ling play he used in the first game. The end for DieStar was being surprised by the transition to brood lord/infestor (which illustrates poor prep by the Polish Terran). The third game saw sLivko easily hold off DieStar's standard play with ling/infestor and then transition into brood lord/infestor yet again for an easy win (DieStar building tanks in this game was a big head-scratcher). In the final game sLivko went for a simple roach-baneling all-in and won easily. sLivko spent last year as a door keeper in WCS (much like the retired Shuttle), always making premier and always bowing out in the round of 32. Given that he's still going brood lord/infestor I expect more of the same. As for DieStar, he needs to research his opponents more and adjust his play accordingly, but the mechanics seem to be there.
I thought StakimaN did well to hang on for nearly 30 minutes in the first game of the series, surviving early pressure from NaNiwa. The Protoss went for a cannon rush in the second game, forcing a cancel and ling follow-up that was crushed with a sentry-heavy push that turned into a win. The third game featured yet more ling pressure that failed and NaNiwa's repeated pushes to deny a third lead to a decisive win. Of the sweeps I thought this was one of the most entertaining, even if the result matched the overwhelming odds (97%)--the best odds given for any of these matches. I'm not sure if StakimaN has the chops for premier, but the first game suggests he might.
I got this series wrong (as did the odds, 64%), but it was entertaining to watch. HeroMarine won the first game in decided fashion with macro play, but over extending on Daedalus tied things up. In the third game the German Terran opened with strong aggression, but then sat back too passively as Starbuck built up a massive economy and overwhelmed him with fantastic engagements. In the fourth game the Slovenian went for a simple roach all-in and HeroMarine was unable to handle it. This has to be a disappointment for HeroMarine, but confirmation that Starbuck's appearance in premier last year was no fluke.
WCS America
Day One
I expected unending blink-stalker games in this series and to my surprise it only happened once and it was Bails applying it. The American took the first game, going from a cannon rush into oracle harass to crushing Huk's colossus army with immortal/archon. HuK took the next game, a macro-focussed match with Bails leading until he threw his army away to take out the fourth. The third game also went macro mode, but HuK was ahead the entire time. The final match saw blink play from Bails that (again) transitioned into the macro phase, but a poor engagement by Bails gave HuK the win. The result matched the odds (73%) and my prediction, with HuK's veteran savvy paving the way to victory.
This was a huge upset and the most fun one I saw live. desRow survived early aggression in the first game and got behind--he was able to hold off the first major push and then initiated a base trade he wound up losing. In the second game desRow went greedy, got away with it and beat an overly aggressive Apocalypse via counter attack. In the third game desRow went for a 4-gate blink all-in and an overconfident Apocalypse thought it was over before it was and paid the price. In the final match Apocalypse struggled to handle DT and zealot harass, got behind and got steamrolled. The Korean was a massive favourite (90%) going into the match and the Canadian's record against good Koreans was awful. The Terran had lost to foreign Protoss lately, dropping games to GunGFuBanDa, NightEnD, and Lilbow. I thought Apocalypse would make short work of desRow, but I'm happy to be wrong.
The Canadian Zerg was given overwhelming odds (92%) and boy did she deliver! Cowman looked hopelessly outmatched (much like ABomB above). In the first game the Protoss player tried zealot pressure which failed and he then got rolled by mutalisk play. In the second lings crushed his economy and he died in the follow-up push. In the final game he attempted four-gate zealot pressure which failed again, as did his follow-up immortal all-in. I didn't see anything from Cowman that suggests he can get this chance again, but it's difficult to judge given how good his opponent was.
I went with the odds here (86%) and saw a Korean win, but those warning signs in viOLet's play I noted (losses to both Petraeus and Illusion) were more prescient than I imagined. The Zerg player went with a roach push in the first game which got crushed by an immortal-sentry all-in. Game two was yet another immortal all-in and viOLet responded better with it a counter attack and did enough damage to crush the follow-up push. In game three Top went for proxy gate/cannon rush that failed hard and he ultimately lost to mutalisks. The following game Top went for an early gateway push that was scouted, but viOLet could not hold it off having skipped ling speed (again). The final game Top went for a zealot rush which viOLet initially stopped, but struggled to answer the Protoss player's warp prism follow-up and then died to an immortal-all in (NASL casters complained the entire game about how silly play from the Chinese player, but rather than mocking Top they might have spent a little time talking about the Korean's inability to hold off the aggression). Given viOLet's mediocre play it's hard to judge either player, but clearly the Korean can make premier if he gets his play in order.
This series was as lopsided as the percentages (88%), as the Korean Terran continued his trend of feasting on middling North American opposition. KoMa has barely played over the last year and it showed. aLive opened with crazy damage from a banshee without cloak and then overwhelmed KoMa's mech after the Canadian took bad engagement after bad engagement. In the second game the Canadian held off an initial push but then died to the follow-up (once again losing a ton to a banshee). In the final game early aggression from KoMa did good damage, but he was devastated by a hellion run-by and run over by the attack following it. The slaughter here approach that of Cowman and ABomB above and I'm not sure that KoMa has the ability to crack premier.
The closest match in America according to the odds (55% for the Mexican Terran), it did not feature Kane at his best as he bowed out against pretty standard play. In the first game MajOr went for an early reaper/bunker pressure followed by a hellion/banshee push--sloppy play from Kane had him leave the game after losing queens to the pressure. In the second game both players went super greedy and exchanged blows as Kane lost his fourth base three times and MajOr his third once, but a bad engagement by the Terran lost him his entire army and despite continued sloppy play the Canadian he steamrolled from there. The series was delayed by a day and in the third game Kane went for two-base muta, transitioning into swarm host/brood lord, but couldn't quite hold off MajOr's mech (this was actually a very good game and it's too bad NASL cast it at x8 speed). In the final game Kane was constantly defending and unable to harass with muta/ling, eventually having to punch out. Clearly Kane has the talent to make premier and I expect him to do so next season.
Day Two
The Korean Protoss lost to Has, something Aligulac has a hard time accepting even after the loss (Sage gets a 76% edge). The upset dodged the raw numbers because Sage has been feasting on non-Korean opposition (going 21-22 in January, with his only loss to Hitman). The games: the opener was blink stalker (Has) versus DT and the latter did far more damage, ultimately giving Sage the game. In the second game Has went three-gate and rolled Sage whose mothership core was out of position. The third game saw Has go for the double gas steal from Sage and follow it with a proxy robo and crushing the Korean player. The final game was the only true macro match between the two with Has getting a lot done with an oracle and eventually winning the colossus wars for the win. There's no reason to doubt that Sage will have a good chance to return to premier next season.
The Korean Protoss was an overwhelming favourite and that carried through the actual result. The only HOTS win over a Korean by Courage was against Sting in January and his overall record against all Protoss was abysmal (30%). The games: zealot pressure did devastating damage that shortly lead to the end of the game. In game two Alicia went DT which didn't do much and then he then lost a base trade against mutas. Courage died to basic gateway/warp prism pressure in the third match. In the final game the Zerg made a big ling attack that did nothing and died to the following gateway push. Clearly Courage has to improve his ZvP before he can truly challenge for premier.
Another overwhelming favourite who came through, even though Arthur is hardly among the best Koreans (with many losses to foreigners in his career, most recently to Ourk in December). iAsonu only had two matches against Koreans in his history, losing to other Protoss (Sage), but defeating the Terran (Legend). As hard as it is to imagine, the Chinese Zerg is even worse against Protoss than Courage (22%). The games: Arthur went phoenix and lost to a massive ling attack which did the damage to ensure a Zerg win. In the second game Arthur's gateway attack was crushed, but then iAsonu got force-fielded out of his main and lost via an ensuing base trade. The next match Arthur won going from zealot/mothership attack into a sentry-based gateway attack. In the final game Arthur went stargate and won with a sentry-based gateway attack. Like Courage above, iAsonu clearly needs to work on his ZvP if he wants into premier.
NASL darling Jim got rolled by Bomber last night despite some ambiguity in the percentages (even now only 64% for the Terran). There was reason to believe in Jim, who took Soulkey to the max at WCG (losing in five games). The Chinese Protoss' recent record against good Korean Terrans was weak, however, even though his overall win rate in the match-up was strong (64%). Bomber had almost no matches against foreign Protoss in HOTS, but was a perfect 1-0 (beating Grubby back in August). Despite a less massive percentage, I would have gone with the victor here. These games were not close, with Bomber simply rolling Jim with standard play (the second match did feature a base trade, which was the most exciting event in the games).
The American Protoss player was the favourite going into the match and carried the day over the Chinese Zerg last night. Unlike the Zergs above, Ian had a good percentage against non-Korean Protoss (58%), but lacked recent wins over any decent competition. puCK's results against Zerg were mixed, but his overall percentage in the match is strong (62%). The games: puCK went for a nine-gate push and crushed Ian who scouted it late. In the second game the American player killed the main with a warp prism/zealot attack followed by a gateway attack anchored by sentry's that was held off; puCK won with a follow-up attack backed by robo units. In the third game puCK went with stargate play and died when his attack failed. In the final game Ian got stuck on two bases and went for a muta/nydus play that failed. Ian has the talent to make it into premier and should I expect he'll get another chance.
Even after the loss SaroVati remains the odds on favourite (52%) in the match-up. The Canadian Protoss has a good record in PvP in HOTS, but mostly against middling competition. Minigun had more meaningful success in his history (wins over puCK and State). I doubt I could have predicted a 3-0 final score. Briefly: SaroVati went Mekar-style proxy everything in the first game and suffered the same fate. The second game went macro-style with SaroVati going phoenix into colossus with zealot/archon while Minigun went zealot/archon. Despite the latter taking a terrible engagement and losing his third, his tempests came out at the right time to shred the colossus and ultimately win the game (this was the best game of the series). In the final game SarVati went for a cannon rush which Minigun survived despite losing his main and won out in a micro war. I see potential in the Canadian Protoss and he could challenge for premier again.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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