ASUS ROG Winter Predictions

We are only a few days away from ASUS ROG Winter and here's a look at the lineup with some predictions.  A few general thoughts to start: the Koreans participating in the tournament are largely those whose careers are best known for crushing foreigners (none of them are GSL winners/finalists other than Dear and he has yet to spend much time in foreign tournaments).  Only Dear and Solar are currently playing in Code S--all the other Korean players are in WCS Europe or America.  None of this preamble takes away from the fact that we're likely to have an all-Korean final, with only NaNiwa (among those participating) having shown the form to get that far among foreigners.  In terms of the racial breakdown there are 13 Protoss, 10 Zergs, and 7 Terrans.

 

Group 1

 

TaeJa - should finish first here, both based on his accomplishments as well as the statistical probabilities (Serral 94%, SortOf 92%, and Happy 67%)

Happy - he just got finished dismantling ABomB in WCS and remains one of the best (if not the best) foreign Terran players; his odds of moving on are very strong (via Aligulac: 74% (Serral), 70% (Sortof), and 33% (Taeja); interestingly, Happy beat Taeja in their one and only meeting (back in November)

SortOf - a two-time participant in WCS Europe (although he failed to make it in season three), he will have to beat Happy for a chance to move on (the Russian beat the Swede 3-0 in their only meeting back in July).  His Aligulac numbers: 61% (Serral), 30% (Happy), and 8% (Taeja)

Serral - coming off one of his best results (R4 in LANTREK), but even in a national tournament he didn't beat anyone notable; his last significant win was over Welmu back in October, but there's nothing in his background that suggests success here (his Aligulac rating against his opponents is 39% (Sortof), 26% (Happy), and 6% (Taeja)

 

Aligulac see's Taeja and Happy moving on and I see no reason to argue.  I also see SortOf third and Serral fourth.

Group 2

 

Jaedong - not surprisingly he is expected to beat all his opponents, although his percentages aren't as dominant as Taeja's above (83% GunGFuBanDa, 70% Apocalypse, and 56% elfi); I'm not sure why Aligulac gives the Finnish Protoss such a strong chance, as I don't expect any of the players to truly challenge him; it's worth noting that Jaedong looked off his game in Warer Invitational this week (losing to Dayshi and various top Koreans, the replays can be found here), but that doesn't take away from the skill that backs his accomplishments

elfi - he's given great odds against both GunGFuBanDa (80%) and Apocalypse (75%), while receiving decent odds against Jaedong (44%) even though the Tyrant is 5-1 lifetime against him

Apocalypse - looking to recover after falling out of WCS via desRow, he has good odds against GunGFuBanDa (64%), but terrible ones against elfi (25%), which strikes me as odd as they have no history; he has slightly better odds (30%) versus Jaedong whose recent loss to Dayshi might be a factor

GunGFuBanDa - the German player is on the upswing, but this is a rough group for him to play in; interestingly, his odds against Apocalypse aren't strong (36%), but he beat him in their last meeting (December), and the Korean is coming off a loss to desRow in WCS; the odds against elfi are worse (20%) and even less (17%) against Jaedong (I don't think the recent loss to Dayshi applies here)

 

Aligulac see's Jaedong and elfi moving on and while I'm iffy on the latter I'll go with it here.  I also believe Apocalypse will be third and GunGFuBanDa will finish fourth, but with the same queasiness I have in picking elfi to be second.

Group 3

 

Life - he should dominate this group, despite not receiving the same overwhelming odds of his Korean compatriots above (only 68% vs Welmu and Kane and 80% vs Bischu); the percentages puzzle me as Life is 14-15 against foreigners since DreamHack Summer, with his only loss coming to Scarlett in December

Welmu - the PvP master is expected to walk over Bischu (77%), struggle with Kane (42%), and has respectable odds (31%) against Life (although he's lost both matches against the Korean, albeit only 3-2 back in December); the real test here will be against Kane to see who moves forward with Life and it's tough to call, but I'll go with the Finn

Kane - coming off struggles in WCS, Kane only gets a 58% edge over Bischu (which is very kind to his Swedish opponent), close odds vs Welmu (46%, with a win over the Finn in their only match back in December), and a respectable percentage 31% versus Life (which seems too high to me)

Bischu - he has made his hay in the Swedish scene and won't make a dent in this competition, although Aligulac is very kind to him: 42% against Kane, 23% against Welmu, and 20% against Life (all of which is much too high; his significant win of late was 2-1 over TargA back in December)

 

Aligulac see's Life and Kane moving forward, but the latter doesn't seem on form so I'll go with Welmu.  Kane will definitely finish ahead of Bischu (the odds have Welmu finishing third).

Group 4

 

Dear - another Korean who doesn't get the overwhelming odds I think he deserves (his only losses against foreigners are against NaNiwa and Starbuck), he gets 63% vs JonnREcco and 61% vs Harstem and Snute; he should win the group without much trouble

Snute - the Norwegian is not an overwhelming favourite against either foreigner in his group (57% vs Harstem and 54% vs JonnyREcco), but Harstem struggles against swarm host play and Aligulac's love for the British Zerg is inexplicable; vs Dear he gets a respectable 39%, but he has no wins over a top Korean Protoss in HOTS

Harstem - an Aligulac underdog against JonnyREcco (!) at 46%, he gets solid odds versus Snute (43%) even though he's 1-3 in series against the Norwegian; the odds also see him having a shot against Dear (39%) despite having no wins against a top Korean Protoss player

JonnyREcco - the British Zerg is a significant underdog here, but gets the nod over Harstem (54%) as they split their only matches back in August and the raw numbers say the Dutchman struggles more against Zerg than his opponent does against Protoss...but JonnyREcco hasn't faced the same quality of opposition so I'd take that with a grain of salt; he's also given solid odds against Snute (46%, someone else he's historically even in matches against and he won the last time, back in May), but I don't see it; even his odds against Dear (36%) are much higher than they should be as he has no wins against top Korean Protoss players

 

Aligulac, despite some weird numbers here, comes to the correct conclusion with Dear and Snute moving forward.  If JonnyREcco goes swarm host, he might finish third over Harstem, but otherwise I disagree with Aligulac's prediction.

Group 5

 

San - in the wacky world of PvP San is a slight underdog vs StarDust (48%), despite being the more accomplished player (the latter won their only match against one another back in September), to boot San is just 1-7 in his last PvP matches vs other Koreans--an upset is certainly possible; he has dominant odds vs Tefel (74%) who went full-Tefel in WCS; and he's at 96% vs Protosser

StarDust - has a good chance vs San (52%), solid odds vs Tefel (64%--which seems very low given his 21-9 record against him, albeit he lost their last match 2-0 over a week ago), and he's 93% vs Protosser

Tefel - other than Protosser (87%), he has little chance vs StarDust (36%) or San (26%)

Protosser - has no significant results outside of Finland (and even those are nominal); Aligulac puts his odds at 13% (Tefel), 7% (StarDust), and 4% (San)

 

Aligulac arrives at the obvious conclusion that StarDust and San will move on.  I agree that Tefel will finish third and Protosser fourth.

Group 6

 

HerO - he should take this group with relative ease and Aligulac backs that expectation (65% vs Patience, 74% vs MorroW, and 77% Zanster)

Patience - he burst onto the foreign scene at DreamHack and should handle his Swedish opponents without too much trouble (60% vs Zanster and 74% against MorroW), while being given a decent chance against HerO (35%--I'd ignore these numbers as his 8-27 record against Korean Protoss is awful (although he did beat sOs in November)

MorroW - freshly bounced from WCS, the Terran is given little chance against Zanster (40%), worse odds against Patience (26%), and less still against HerO (22%); I expect him to finish at the bottom of his group

Zanster - the Swedish Zerg is given good odds against his compatriot MorroW (60%), having beaten him every time (thrice) in HOTS; Aligulac also gives him good numbers against Patience (40%!) despite getting dropped in their only match 2-0 back in October--Zanster's only significant win over a Korean was vs a Zerg (Solar back in November); his odds against HerO (23%) are a bit more realistic, albeit still too high

 

Aligulac has HerO and Patience moving forward and I see no reason to question that.  I'm in concordance with the odds that see Zanster third and MorroW fourth.

Group 7

 

Solar - the Code S Korean does lose to foreigners from time to time (eg to Verdi and Tefel back in December), and he has a mediocre record against Korean Protoss players, but gets the nod over both Alicia (54%) and BabyKnight (77%, who he beat 2-0 in December); not surprisingly, he's expected to roll Naama (88%)

Alicia - he has a mixed record against Korean Zergs over his career, but is on a mini three match winning streak; he remains the underdog vs Solar (46%); he gets the nod over BabyKnight (62%), although the Dane did beat him 1-0 in their only meeting (in November); Naama (88%) should provide no obstacle

BabyKnight - he has an awful record against Korean Zergs (other than Symbol) and his 23% odds vs Solar seem optimistic; he's an underdog vs Alicia as well (37%), but he is someone BabyKnight can beat; 80% odds vs Naama seem a little low

Naama - he's long removed from winning Dreamhack Winter in 2010 and he doesn't have a significant win in HOTs; Aligulac puts his odds at 20% (BabyKnight), 12% (Alicia), and 12% (Solar), all of which seems optimistic

 

Once again Aligulac see's the Koreans moving forward (Solar and Alicia) and I see no reason to argue.  Undoubtedly BabyKnight will be third and Naama fourth.

Group 8

 

NaNiwa - the best foreigner in the game (or at least, December's Bitcoin showmatch suggests it as he beat Scarlett 4-2), he's given a significant edge over ForGG (67%), having beaten him 2-0 in October (albeit after losing to him twice in September); he has stronger odds against a fading Ret (75%) as he rides a seven match winning streak against foreign Zergs; KrasS is given almost no chance (87% for the Swede) as NaNiwa is in the midst of a 6-0 run vs foreign Terrans

ForGG - he's capable of beating NaNiwa, despite being the underdog (33%); he'll dominate Ret (77%) and KrasS (92%)

Ret - he's been fading badly of late, with no significant wins since beating TitaN in October; he's given 25% odds vs NaNiwa, 23% vs ForGG, and even sits as the underdog vs KrasS (38%)

KrasS - expected to be crushed by both NaNiwa (13%) and ForGG (8%), he could beat Ret (62%), having recently won over Zerg's DIMAGA and Zanster

 

Aligulac believes both NaNiwa and ForGG will move on from the group and that's my conclusion as well.  KrasS third and Ret fourth is a more difficult proposition, but Ret has struggled so much lately that I'll go with it.

 

Given the predictions we will see 11 Koreans and 5 foreigners in the round of sixteen, consisting of 9 Protoss, 4 Zergs, and 3 Terrans.  The groups would be:

 

Taeja, NaNiwa, Snute, San
Jaedong, Solar, Welmu, Patience
Life, HerO, elfi, Alicia
Dear, StarDust, ForGG, Happy

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)