IEM Cologne began on Thursday and I looked through the Aligulac crystal ball to take a stab at predictions. The bracket includes a qualifier stage which is divided into two separate double -elimination brackets (dubbed "dual tournaments") and I looked at them one by one (all VODs are already posted, which is fantastic).
First qualifier bracket:
MC vs Revenge - the Boss Toss is the overwhelming favourite (85%) and I see saw reason to disagree--he won as expected
San vs HasuObs - the Korean is the favourite (76%) and I didn't think the German's win over MC back in December indicated he was ready to take on San, but he pulled an upset here
StarDust vs Miniraser - almost at the same odds as MC (84%), while StarDust is a beatable Korean I didn't see that happening here and it did not
Hanfy vs TLO - foreign favourite TLO gets the best draw he could hope for as he's expected to throttle his German compatriot (77%); Hanfy just lost to TLO two weeks ago and I don't think his recent win over DIMAGA indicates any upset hopes--and the upset is exactly what happened
My (and Aligulac's) assumptions above didn't pan out, so the bracketed material in italics below did not happen as expected, but StarDust did qualify as predicted (along with MC) and San made it to the top-three. HasuObs was the best performing foreigner (rather than TLO). Aligulac was 9-4 in its predictions throughout this bracket.
[Assuming the above MC will play San and StarDust will play TLO. San is the favourite over the Boss Toss (67%) and if he's on his game I don't think MC can keep up with him (their match history isn't helpful as all previous games were in Wings of Liberty). Once again TLO gets a favourable match-up, where (despite the 74% odds against) he actually won the only match he's played against StarDust (at IEM Sao Paulo)--that being said, he was dismantled by both MC and herO two weeks ago so I'm going to go with the odds here. That would mean San plays StarDust and just like Aligulac I see the former winning this one (55%; San 3-0'd his opponent when it mattered at ASUS ROG). Down in the losers bracket, Revenge would play HasuObs while Miniraser faces Hanfy; HasuObs gets the odds over the Korean (74%) and Revenge has lost both matches he's played against him, so I agree with Aligulac. Miniraser only gets slight odds (54%) over Hanfy, and his erratic ZvZ does offer some hope for his opponent (their only match was in Wings of Liberty and doesn't apply). I think Miniraser is on the upswing, however, so I'll go with him. Given the foregoing HasuObs would face MC, while TLO gets Miniraser, MC is the odds-on favourite (60%), although he did lose to HasuObs in December--nevertheless, the Boss Toss will pull through. TLO is the overwhelming favourite against Miniraser (73%) and there's nothing to suggest he won't win. MC would then face TLO (again the favourite, 75%), a player he's beat in three straight matches and should do so again. StarDust vs MC would face off for the final spot, with StarDust getting the odds (62%) and, I think, the victory. San and StarDust move forward.]
The second qualifier bracket:
HyuN vs Tarrantius - an overwhelming favourite (87%), there was no reason to believe HyuN won't crush the German Protoss--and he did
Tefel vs viOLet - the Korean Zerg only got a slight edge (53%), but he beat Tefel 2-0 just a few weeks ago and Tefel has had no success against good Korean Zergs--the odds held here too
Leenock vs Socke - the Korean was a surprising underdog (47%), particularly since Socke had no significant wins over Korean Zergs and NaNiwa is the only foreign Protoss to beat Leenock in HOTS; I went with the "upset" here and I was correct
Patience vs Grubby - the Korean Protoss is the favourite (65%) and Grubby hasn't had a big PvP upset versus a Korean since beating MC back in May; Patience had lost to MaNa (twice!), but that's his only loss to a foreigner so I went with him and was correct
The predicted results occurred as HyuN played viOLet and Leenock faced Patience. HyuN got the nod (61%) against viOLet whp hadn't beaten a decent Korean Zerg since last February and that was spot on. Patience was favoured against Leenock (67%), despite losing their only match 1-0 back in September--given that Leenock was on a seven match losing streak against Korean Protoss players, I successfully went with the odds. That meant HyuN plays Patience for the first qualifier slot, with the Protoss considered the favourite (57%), as he beat HyuN back in November and the Zerg has been struggling in the match-up--the odds and I were correct here as well.
In the loser's bracket Tefel played Tarrantius and Socke faced Grubby. The Polish Zerg was the overwhelming favourite (81%), despite the German has the historical edge (beating Tefel in their only HOTS match, but that was back in April). Tefel is an erratic player, but I thought he'd hold out to win--instead he fell to Tarrantius. In the PvP Grubby is the slight favourite (52%) and I thought he's the better player so I expected him to beat Socke, but the odds and I were wrong. These changes meant it was viOLet vs Socke (who, as expected, he beat) and Leenock vs Tarrantius (the Korean winning), whose results dovetailed back into mine and Aligulac's predictions which I'll conclude after the failed part below.
[The resulting matches in the loser bracket would be a re-match of viOLet vs Tefel along with Leenock vs Grubby. Tefel will lose again, while Leenock (52%) should defeat Grubby (I think the odds are far too kind to the Dutchman).]
ViOLet had the edge over Leenock (57%), but I liked the latter's ZvZ more and correctly went with the upset. HyuN was the big favourite over Leenock (69%), despite losing to him in their only HOTS match back in November and I correctly bowed to Aligulac. This meant that, as predicted, Patience and HyuN moved forward. As with the above bracket, Aligulac was 9-4 while I was 11-2.
Here's a look at the groups:
Group A
Aligulac saw Rain winning the group with HerO the slight favourite for second and they were spot on. I dove into the match-ups (I agreed with the Rain decision), seeing that HyuN had the edge over ForGG (51%), but they split both their matches in HOTS and were mediocre in the match-up, so thought t was as coin-flippy as the percentage suggests. ForGG had a slight (52%) edge over HerO, but the Protoss won the last two matches between them and it wasn't the Terran's best match-up so I gave HerO the edge. HerO had the edge versus HyuN (57%) and the Zerg was 1-12 against Korean Protoss of late. Given all that, I agreed that HerO will pull through.
Group B
Aligulac was definitive with this group, predicting jjakji and Dear would advance, so going 1 for 2. qxc lost out as expected (despite playing well) and Patience's PvP versus Koreans was poor (4-11 in matches, including two losses to Dear), so I saw no reason to argue with the odds, but Dear was not his best and Patience advanced.
Group C
Aligulac had Polt and StarDust pulling through this group, and while I agreed with Polt I wasn't as convinced Jaedong would fall out. He'd beaten StarDust in their last match (December), and even though the odds still give the Protoss the edge (54%), I correctly liked the upset here. MaNa was given no chance at all, but did upset Jaedong in their initial match-up (only to be dismantled by he and Polt subsequently).
Group D
Aligulac had Innovation and MC moving forward (going 1 for 2 again), while I think the former had struggled of late and dug into the match-ups. Classic had been very impressive of late (he had a great record in PvT and PvP, granting he hadn't played the top Terrans). Innovation remains a very robotic player and he'd been mediocre in PvP (6-7 since November), so I gave Classic (60%) the edge along with MC (52%--he beat Innovation a few weeks ago and the Boss Toss was on a 4-0 run against Korean Terrans). So I underestimated Innovation and Aligulac missed on Classic.
Overall Aligulac was only 5-3 (low from my experience, missing Patience, Jaedong, and Classic), while I was 6-2 (missing Patience and Innovation). The bracket for the round of eight (best of 5's until the final) looked like this:
Aligulac gave Polt a significant edge (68%), and despite the fact that Classic has an excellent record against Korean Terrans (9-2), none of them have been against someone of Polt's calibre and I correctly thought the Terran would win out.
The best match of the round of eight, Aligulac saw it as a coin flip with jjakji getting the slightest of edges (50%), but their records in the match-up against Koreans gives Rain a huge edge (78% vs 56%) and he's 11-0 of late vs Terrans, so I was right to give this to him.
Aligulac gave Patience the edge (56%) and while neither player is dominant in the match-up against Koreans, Jaedong did struggle against MaNa (of all people) so I incorrectly went with the odds here.
Aligulac gave Innovation the edge (58%), but I found this one tough to call as neither player is dominant in the match-up. Given the uncertainty I incorrectly went with Innovation (the fears I had for him in the previous round came true here as HerO dismantled him with very basic PvT).
Aligulac was 2-2 while I went 3-1. Here's a look at the semi-finals (also best-of-five):
Aligulac gave Polt the slightest of edges (50%), which was absolutely spot on, while I thought Rain's PvT was far too good (it was odd that Rain went away from his standard play in games two and three).
This is the best possible draw for Jaedong, whom Aligulac gives a slight edge (50%) and the Tyrant beat HerO in their last match (ASUS ROG in January), so I thought he would make it through to the final. However, HerO held out, winning an insane game five to go to the final.
Aligulac was 1-2, while I was 0-2. A look at the final (a best-of-seven):
Aligulac gave Polt a distinct edge (66%) and he'd beaten HerO in both their prior HOTS matches; Polt was also on a great PvT run, so I erroneously agreed with the odds here.
Overall Aligulac was 26-16 (61%, very low compared to other tournaments this year), while I was 22-10 (68%, my total number is lower as the expected qualifier matches did not occur so I had no applicable predictions for some of the matches). The tournament featured some fantastic games, from qxc's repeated manner mules vs Patience (followed by great commentary once he was eliminated--I would have liked more of him and less of Ret), MaNa's upset over Jaedong, virtually all of Polt's series, and some of HerO vs Jaedong (particularly game five).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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