The groups have been announced for WCS America's Premier division and I have mixed feelings about how spread out the action is (almost a month between Group A and Group H). The plus side to the length is that there will be plenty of focus on each group and other tournaments (and streamers) have room to breath, but on the down side there's going to be no sense of momentum following the initial group stage. I have high hopes that the round of thirty-two will continue to have some of the surprises we saw in the Challenger matches. Here are the groups (those in italics below are in NA Premier for the first time), which is fairly even in terms of racial participation (12 Protoss, 11 Terrans, and 9 Zergs), but not in how they are slotted in the groups:
Group A
Oz 
Alicia
desRow
Nestea 
Aligulac predicts Alicia going through (71%), while Oz (55%) and Nestea (56%) are virtually neck and neck to join him. Nestea has been awful in PvZ in HOTS (25% vs Korean Protoss) and should miss out along with desRow.
Group B
Heart 
MaSa
Scarlett
TooDming
Scarlett (75%) and Heart (54%) are Aligulac's picks and despite some sloppy play by Scarlett at the MLG Ender's Game tourney she should push through. Heart has been very good against non-Koreans (he's 9-10 in relevant match-ups, only losing to Kas in October), so I see no reason to argue with his odds.
Group C
ByuL
HyuN
Revival
The StC
The only all-Korean group, HyuN (who got bounced at IEM when he hit strong Korean competition) is Aligulac's overwhelming favourite (85%) followed by ByuL (56%). TheStC is awful in TvZ (21% vs Koreans), but both Revival and ByuL are relatively equal in ZvZ vs Koreans--albeit the former is on a good run (7-2), while ByuL has struggled a bit (1-4)--I'll go for the upset and predict Revival moves on.
Group D
Jaedong
Arthur
Has
Bomber
Aligulac predicts Jaedong (74%) and Bomber (70%) will move to the next round and I see no reason to argue, even if both of them are prone to imploding from time to time.
Group E
HerO
XiGua
HuK
Top
Aligulac has HerO (86%) and HuK (47%) moving forward; I see no reason to argue with IEM champion HerO, but I'm more uncertain about HuK. The Canadian is good in PvZ, but so is XiGua. HuK and Top are roughly equal in PvP as well. Top has beaten XiGua in their last two matches and HuK won his only match against Top, which doesn't particularly clarify the picture, so I'll lean on the odds in this group.
Group F
TaeJa
CranK
aLive
MajOr
Aligulac makes Taeja as the overwhelming favourite (89%), with aLive (48%) as the other player to go through. I agree with Taeja (despite not performing well at ASUS ROG), but aLive's weakness in PvT vs Koreans (35%) does mean there's a chance for CranK to pull through. aLive has beaten Rain fairly recently (November) so I'll stick with the odds. Despite some success at IEM Sao Paulo I don't think MajOr has a chance here.
Group G
Polt
Neeb
Minigun
Illusion
There's no reason to question Aligulac's prediction that Polt will cruise through (91%), and it has Minigun as the other player pulling through (51%). Minigun is excellent in PvT vs non-Koreans (80%), and while Neeb should beat Illusion (he has the better TvT), he's lost recently to Minigun (two weeks ago) and never actually beaten him in HOTS, so the odds should stand strong.
Group H
MacSed
puCK
SeleCT
Sen
Sen and MacSed are Aligulac's favourites (73% and 59%). SeleCT still struggles against strong competition since returning to StarCraft (his win over Has in November and XiGua in July are basically the only ones), so he's a non-factor. MacSed has never beaten Sen (0-4 in matches), so can puCK upset the Chinese Protoss? The two are 1-1 in matches and their PvP percentages are very similar, but I have to go with the odds here.
There are only two groups (D and H) that feature all three races, and only one (B) has an even mix of two races. Throughout the Challenger bracket Aligulac was 17-7 (I was 16-8), with SeleCT, Sen, MaSa, desRow, Top, Has, and Minigun pulling the upsets against the odds. From the round of thirty-two Aligulac projects Oz, Alicia, Scarlett, Heart, HyuN, ByuL, Jaedong, Bomber, HerO, HuK, Taeja, aLive, Polt, Minigun, Sen, and MacSed. I concur with the exception of Revival instead of ByuL.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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