WCS Europe's Premier division gets underway on Tuesday and while I have mixed feelings about how spread out the action is I have high hopes that it will feature great games and perhaps some surprises. Here are the groups (those in italics are in Premier for the first time), which is pretty evenly split in terms of racial participation (13 Protoss, 11 Zergs, and 8 Terrans):
Group A
Aligulac definitively has NaNiwa and MC making it through the group (72% and 73% respectively) and I see no reason to disagree (coincidentally, Bunny and sLivko faced each other in the round of 32 in season one of WCS last year; given that the Russian Zerg hasn't changed his style I expect the Terran to beat him just as he last year).
Group B
Aligulac predicts jjakji and Nerchio making it through the group (86% and 54%). ShoWTimE has been mediocre in PvZ against foreigners since late July (8-8), lost to Nerchio in their only match in HOTS, and his only significant wins over Zergs in that period were over predictable sLivko and Bly. LiveZerg has been extremely good in foreign ZvP (72% throughout HOTS) and is on a 10-0 streak in the match-up, but Nerchio has much better in foreign ZvZ (73% vs 53%) so I don't see any upsets here.
Group C
Aligulac has ForGG and VortiX going through (77% and 72%). Between BabyKnight and Lilbow the French player has the better chance to upset VortiX (the Dane's PvZ has not been good in HOTS and he's never beaten the Spaniard), but there's really nothing in Lilbow's track record to suggest he'll be able to pull it off so I expect the odds to be correct.
Group D
Aligulac has San as the overwhelming favourite (95%!) with Dayshi (52%) the likely second player through. Can TargA beat out Dayshi? The Norwegian has a good ZvT track record (66%), but Dayshi is even better in the match-up (82%) and is recently 9-10 against foreign Zergs in multi-game series, so the odds should stand here.
Group E
Aligulac predicts StarDust and Bly making it through (81% and 49%). Can Happy beat Bly? Clearly he can, but the Russian was not on form his last few tournaments (losing to Serral of all people), but he is stronger in the TvZ match-up than Bly and I think he'll pull through.
Group F
Aligulac has Genius and TLO going through (66% and 50%), but this is the most ambiguous group of the round of 32. Genius hasn't played since December and has consistently struggled against Europeans Zergs (including losing to middling players like Ourk and Paranoid). Genius hasn't lost to a foreign Protoss or Terran in HOTS however, so should push through regardless. TLO has struggled of late, losing to mediocre players like Hanfy (IEM) and his record against decent opponents since January is abysmal (2-8, with Happy and Bomber as the exceptions). In the Germans' favour, Kas hasn't set the world on fire either, nor has Grubby (whose last big win was over jjakji in January, but that's the exception in his performances). Given the morass I'll go with the odds, but it's not a safe bet.
Group G
Aligulac predicts Mvp and Snute moving on (80% and 61%). Mvp has barely played the last few months, but should have no problems here. Snute has been very strong against foreigners recently; his only losses in ZvZ (November onwards) are to TLO while in PvZ he's 13-0 of late (granting most of those wins are not against top opponents). FireCake is very bad in foreign ZvZ (31%) and he hasn't done well in PvZ since November. Can HasuObs pull off an upset? It's certainly possible (he's 5-0 in the match-up recently) and knowing what Snute is going to do every game (Swarm Hosts) has to help. I like the upset here--HasuObs was impressive in the IEM qualifier and I'd like to think that with so much time to study Snute's strategy he can theorise his way through it. As an aside, as much as I hate the Swarm Host I would love for FireCake and Snute to swarm it up against one another--they might set a new record for the longest game ever, particularly if it's on a four-player map.
Group H
Aligulac has MMA and Welmu going through (75% and 60%). MMA has not been on form of late (losing to Paranoid and Minato recently, for example), but I do think he'll pull through here. Welmu has a few losses to foreigners of late as well (Bly and elfi), but he's been fantastic overall so I'll go with the odds. If anyone pulls an upset I'd bet on Starbuck, incidentally.
ESL has done a great job of having someone of each race in every group (unlike NA), which means players must prepare for at least two match-ups in each. Aligulac was 18-6 in predicting Challenger results (75%, slightly more precise than its NA predictions), missing out on Lilbow, FireCake, Bly, Starbuck, Kas, and Miniraser. According to the odds, we'll see NaNiwa, MC, jjakji, Nerchio, ForGG, VortiX, San, Dayshi, StarDust, Bly, Genius, TLO, Mvp, Snute, MMA, and Welmu more on to the round of sixteen. The only differences I see are Happy instead of Bly, and HasuObs instead of Snute.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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