The Round of 32 has come and gone in WCS America and it's time to reflect on predictions as well as make some for the Round 16. Aligulac was only 10-6 in its predictions as NA remains the most volatile region, with Scarlett, ByuL, Jaedong, HerO, aLive, Minigun, and Sen failing to move forward (TooDming, Revival, Arthur, XiGua, CranK, Neeb, and puCK went ahead instead). I successfully predicted Revival over ByuL, but otherwise went with Aligulac despite some musings over upsets that wound up occurring (CranK and puCK specifically). In terms of racial performance, Protoss were 7-5, Zergs 4-5, and Terrans 5-6 (10 of the 16 players moving forward are Korean, with four Koreans failing to make it). The R16 groups are below (thankfully each group features all three races):
HyuN
Heart
Oz puCK
Aligulac predicts HyuN and Oz moving forward (72% and 52%); there's no reason to expect puCK to pull an upset (other than SeleCT he has no wins over Koreans offline in HOTS) and Heart is in the same predicament in the relevant matchups as his only win is against YoungJoo, so the odds should be right on target.
Alicia HuK Revival Neeb
Aligulac has Alicia and HuK making it through (73% and 58%); HuK is 0-5 in the relevant matches offline and hasn't beaten a decent Korean since Heart (if he counts) back in September--he also lost to Revival the only time they've played in that circumstance, so I'll go with Revival here (there's nothing to suggest Neeb can push through).
Arthur MacSed Taeja TooDming
Aligulac projects Taeja and Arthur to win the group (78% and 52%); assuming Taeja's wrists are in decent shape he's a no-brainer; Arthur was on a 15-0 streak in B03 matches before losing to Tefel and roof (!) online, which I see as aberrations and doesn't bode well for either MacSed or TooDming's chances so I'll go with the odds here.
Polt CranK Bomber XiGua
It's a cruel fate that Polt and Bomber are in the same group and no surprise that Aligulac picks both to go through (82% and 72%); I see no chance for XiGua, but can CranK channel the Power of Protoss? I don't think so, as he doesn't have wins over players of their calibre (he beat Innovation back in September, but that was after the hellbat nerf).
If Aligulac is correct these are the players who will make the round of eight: HyuN, Oz, Alicia, HuK, Taeja, Arthur, Polt, and Bomber. I have Revival going forward instead of HuK, but otherwise agree with the odds. My predictions have an all-Korean lineup, while Aligulac includes one foreigner.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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