WCS Premier Preview (R16 Groups A and B)

After what seems like forever, WCS is back in action tomorrow in the midst of the Legacy of the Void beta hype (I'll have a few comments about the latter at the end of this).  This is the last gasp of the old map pool and the old swarm host (RIP).  In terms or predictive success from the R32 it's been quite close between Aligulac, Team Liquid, and myself, although none have produced stellar results to this point.  That being said, here's how the groups breakdown tomorrow.  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.

Group A

Three Zergs and one Terran make for an interesting mix.  Serral didn't drop a map arriving here (beating NaNiwa and Suppy), while ForGG only lost one game (screwing around against FireCake); TLO narrowly beat out Kelazhur after dropping his first series against him (he also took out Jim), while XiGua fought tooth and nail to beat both Astrea and a sick uThermal, while LAO losing to Snute.

Serral vs XiGua - the Finnish player is a strong favourite (65%); it's difficult to judge XiGua's current form given the insular scene he plays in, but while Serral's ZvZ percentages are great, his match history features some surprising bumps in the road (JonnyRecco and HateMe (!)), and what few games he's played since the R32 have been iffy as well, so I'll take the upset here
ForGG vs TLO - not surprisingly, the Korean is a heavy favourite (79%), so the question is, does TLO have any hope?  I don't see it--while he beat ForGG two years ago at a Dreamhack, he's lost to him in both subsequent meetings and he hasn't beaten a Korean Terran since SuperNova back in July (going 0-9 since)
Losers Match
Serral vs TLO - once again the Finnish player gets the odds (57%); oddly they've only played against each other once competitively (a BO1 that Serral won); I mentioned Serral's missteps in ZvZ above, although it's worth noting both he and TLO have absurdly good records in the matchup (in their ten most recent BO3s: 8-2 for the Finn, 9-1 for the German); that said, TLO only loses to good Zerg players so I think he has the edge here and I'll go for the upset; if this instead features XiGua instead of the Finnish player, Aligulac gives TLO the edge (58%)
Winners Match
ForGG vs XiGua - we can safely say RIP XiGua and know the odds back us up (85%); Aligulac would have Serral here and not surprisingly gives ForGG a significant edge (73%)--I see no reason to argue
Finals
TLO vs XiGua - TLO has a slight edge (58%) and here I agree with them (for the reasons given above in his match against Serral; this is Aligulac's imagined losers match btw); if Aligulac is right and TLO faces Serral here you can read about that above (but they give it to the Finn).

ForGG and TLO move on for me, while Aligulac has Serral instead of the German player.  [TL posted shortly after this and has Aligulac's conclusions.]

Group B

A Z/P all-foreigner group.  Snute didn't lose a map making it here (taking out XiGua and an ill uThermal), while ShoWTimE had competitive series against iAsonu and MorroW; MacSed squeaked through by beating iaguz in their re-match series (along with knocking off a very subpar HuK); PiG recovered from being crushed by Happy to edge out both TargA and the predictable Russian.

Snute vs MacSed - the Norwegian is a heavy favourite (82%), and the only way MacSed wins this is to win early (I say that despite his high PvZ ratio--struggling to beat Enderr is not a great sign), so I'll stick with the odds
ShoWTimE vs PiG - the German player is favoured (68%), and I think that's being generous to PiG as he hasn't beaten a notable Protoss since ToD back in July
Losers Match
MacSed vs PiG - oddly enough, PiG has beaten MacSed, but it was back in 2013 and doesn't seem that relevant, but it helps explain why he's so heavily favoured (63%); to my mind MacSed's record in the matchup is more impressive than PiG's, but I don't know if heavy swarmhost play is as common in the Chinese scene--regardless, I'll stick with the "upset" here
Winners Match
Snute vs ShoWTimE - the odds are very close (55% for Snute), and that's likely because ShoWTimE beat Snute twice at the Fragbite Masters less than a month ago; it's hard to bet against Snute, especially when he still has access to his favourite unnerfed unit, but he's been known to stubbornly stick to his builds so perhaps the German has figured him out--I'll go with the upset
Finals
Snute vs MacSed - this is a rematch and while normally the player who loses the first wins the second, I think Snute will comfortably win again; Aligulac would make this a rematch between ShoWTimE and PiG (whose odds you can see above)

ShoWTimE and Snute move ahead for me (Aligulac arrives at the same conclusion, but comes at it a different way).  [TL, link above, puts MacSed through instead of the German.]

A couple of thoughts about the LOTV beta (with the Lycan League tournament just an hour or so away): it's been fantastic and I love the changes--the action is much and there's a lot more multitasking.  In terms of balance concerns (along with an awful map pool), opinions seem similar across the board (echoed from The Late Game to Artosis to streamers like HuK or HeroMarine): the Cyclone is broken (while easily countered by Zerglings in TvZ, it's overpowered against Protoss), the Ravager is broken (mostly against Protoss--last night I think I saw them rushed in almost every ZvP), and the Viper's Parasitic Bomb is broken.  There's slight disagreement over the Adept, but most Protoss pros thought it was useless as-is; the invulnerable Nydus has been brought-up; I saw complaints about Carriers, but not enough to call them broken (unless the Protoss can amass a huge fleet of them I don't see the problem, but I'm hardly an expert).  Those are the impressions I noted and it will be interesting to see what tweaks are made--it's worth pointing out that everyone likes the ideas behind the new units, so even those that have issues at the moment seem worth saving (granted I agree with iNcontroL that thematically Zergs don't really need the Lurker and the Swarmhost--keep the Lurker I say).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

The announcement of when the closed beta for LOTV has come out, with March 31st marked on your calendars.  I'm not sure how one gets into the beta, but at the least we'll get to see videos on Twitch and Youtube (Lycan has announced his weekly league will be LOTV only, for example).   Undoubtedly there will be some broken units to start, but that's fine so long as they get tweaked before release.

The season two map pool has been announced:
Expedition Lost
Vaani Research Station
Inferno Pools
Coda (TL map)
Echo (TL map)
Cactus Valley (TL map)
Iron Fortress (Kespa map)

Removed were Overgrowth (at last), Catallena (hoi hoi hoi), Deadwing, and Secret Spring.  The latter map is one of the very few to appear for only one season.  I expect Vaani to be the new Overgrowth of the season (ie, chosen all the time, just like Bel'Shir Vestige before it).  I've seen speculation that Inferno Pools may still be removed, but for now that's all it is.

NaNiwa has found a team for himself at last as Team Property signed him.  However many bridges he's burned in the past, it seems like there's always room for him somewhere on an SC2 team.  I'm not sure how much (if at all) this will impact his streaming.

Day9 took to Reddit in the wake of the recent controversy about the possibility of departed SC2 celebrities returning to the scene in the wake of LOTV.  He explained why he stopped doing SC2 dailies, something he's apparently done on his show already, but never specifically delineated as a post or video.  In essence he stopped due to lack of time to do his show in the way he wanted.  I'm glad Day9 made the effort, as his post should put a lid on the criticism of him that's been floating around since the summer.  The other bit of news is that he won't immediately jump into LOTV coverage due to current time constraints, but perhaps towards the end of the beta or upon release we can expect him to return.

Along the same lines, Lycan talked to DJ Wheat about his departure from the SC2 community and for those interested I suggest watching the entire interview.  Wheat apparently still watches more StarCraft than any other eSport, but has abandoned casting events (feeling pushed out by the WCS system--Wheat generally did MLGs for those who weren't in the scene at the time).  His disappearance from the community is largely due to the negativity within it; he also downplayed the fact that he was ever involved in SC2 for the money.  Beyond that they talked about the state of the game (including Blizzard's reluctance to patch the game), and he was ultimately very positive.

With Day9 and DJ Wheat having spoken out, is JP McDaniel next?

There has been another accusation of cheating as it appeared as though MarineKing threw his match against Byul in the SPL.  It seems pretty obvious to me, but there's room for debate which you can see via The Late Game and Remax (links below).

The conversation about Winter is still simmering and you can see a lengthy debate about it on The Late Game where Lycan spends an inordinate amount of time trying to illustrate why there may be some question over whether Evan viewbotted or not (with Axeltoss appearing in support of Winter--which is not surprising given that he just cast with the guy).  Remax also briefly discussed Totalbiscuit wanting Winter out of the scene entirely (something that's pretty impractical--his call to get ride of Avilo back in July fell on deaf ears, for example).  At this stage I think there's more than enough evidence for fans to draw their own conclusions.  Personally I think the fact that he's been exposed and isn't featured on TL is enough at this point.

I wonder if anyone will explore the role of the swarm host in HOTS prior to the nerf--from Stephano's early corrupter/viper style in 2013 to the more current way of using them ala Snute.  It's going to be interesting to see how the change impacts Zerg strategies, particularly against Protoss or meching Terrans.  At a guess I think we'll see a return to the heavy muta play that was so prevalent in HOTS in the beginning.

This is a bit tangential, but Thorin has a great little vlog explaining the difference between a serious prediction and simply saying X will beat Y without providing reasoning.  I find sports is plagued by vague, meaningless predictions hinged on irrelevant or unprovable factors (eg who is trying harder).  It's why I appreciate Aligulac and its methodology--it's not perfect, but the reasons for its predictions are based on good data and reasoning.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

StarCraft News & Notes

It has been a long time since I did a blog about SC2 news, but there's been so much of late I thought it was worth doing.

The Swarm Host change that has been needed since Beta is on its way.  It's incredible that Blizzard has managed to drag its heels nerfing a broken Zerg unit in each of its SC2 releases (the infestor in WOL, the swarm host in HOTS).  It's apparent that until something heavily impacts the Korean scene, there's little to no interest in tackling major balance problems.  Will LOTV be different?  We can hope.

TotalBiscuit is bringing SC2 back to MLG tv.  This will be Clan Wars, which he ran last year.  I wish TB would also play SC2 again, but given how stressful he finds it, I'm not surprised he's avoided it while battling cancer.

Around the same time came word/rumour that many of the old school SC2 personalities are poised to return to the game once Legacy of the Void hits.  The shit hit the fan when Destiny talked about it on The Late Game, which made its way to Reddit.  You can listen to Destiny's own words via the link, but in essence he was upset that some of the personalities would reappear for a cash grab without having done anything to prevent the game from sliding in the interim (there's a hilarious mock article taking this argument to its logical extreme).  I couldn't say what said personalities did or didn't do in WOL (I came in at the end of it), but on the whole I don't really care if peripheral people return so long as it doesn't come at the expense of those who have soldiered on.  Of the personalities Husky deserves the least amount of criticism, as his absence was largely due to personal issues he discussed last November.  I've always been puzzled by Day9's silence on why he was no longer producing regular SC2 content (something he stopped last May); I would have understood if he'd said it simply wasn't cost-effective or if his interests had moved on, but I'll be happy to have him back in LOTV (I think he's good for the game and community).

On the heels of this storm the scene exploded as proof of Winter's viewbotting came to light.  I don't think anyone was surprised by it, although the fallout is more than I expected (being delisted from Team Liquid and then losing his Nvidia sponsorship).  There are strong feelings on the fallout itself, with some members of the community seeing it as an unnecessary witchhunt, while others think it's completely justified.  It does make him talking about how he achieved his success hilarious in retrospect.  Will Winter soldier on?  I think it depends on if his subscriber base sticks with him, but it's certainly going to limit his career in SC2 in the short term.  If he vanishes from the scene it will be interesting to see if his subscribers migrate to other streamers or not, but I would hope so.

I'm curious to see what will happen to the casting community once LOTV comes out.  There's been a huge overhaul on that score since HOTS came out.  Former MLG caster Axslav seems to be completely out of the scene (ala IPL casters Kevin Knocke and Kibbelz), but Axeltoss re-emerged at the Lone Star Clash about a year ago and may seek to reinsert himself.  Both Frodan and Gretorp (NASL alumni) have returned in some fashion--Frodan back from the collapse of ESGN and Hearthstone coaching, while Gretorp returns from poker.  I'm not sure if Khaldor is permanently attaching himself to the Heroes of the Storm scene, but it looks like Mr Bitter (NASL) is remaining off-camera in his work with Red Bull.  Of the names above, Bitter is the only one I'd like to see back.  Day9, despite the lack of content on his channel, still casts Redbull and BlizzConn, so has never been completely absent.  How much will these folks impact community people like Rifkin and ZombieGrub (BaseTradetv) remains to be seen.

It was a little weird seeing Paul Chaloner hosting IEM just after announcing his move from ESL to Gfinity.  IEM Katowice was a great tournament, even if we were stuck with a mirror match-up in the finals (which wasn't too bad as far as PvP goes).  The best series were in the R16 and R8, but that's not much of a surprise since players in the R4 and final have had time to see what strategies their opponents are going to use.  You can watch the replays here.

Finally, both Lycan and desRow have been running weekly cups recently and, assuming the former wants to keep paying for them, I think his is the most likely to last.  As much as I like desRow, he's not a caster and unless he wants to improve on that he's a drag on viewing his event.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS: Looking Back at the Round of 32

Before digging into the R16 match-ups I thought it was worth looking back and seeing how the eight groups in the R32 turned out versus predictions.  Overall Team Liquid had the strongest round (9-7), with Aligulac trailing behind slightly (7-9)--I split the difference at 8-8.  None of these numbers are particularly impressive (TL's 56% is only just better than a coin flip), but I think some of that randomness boils down to the nature of group play, best-of-threes, and other things that can't be known beforehand (like viOLet being sick or HuK having personal issues).  For those who missed the TL threads, here they are: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E, Group F, Group G, and Group H.

Group A
All predictions correctly picked Snute and incorrectly picked uThermal; the Dutch player was not feeling well in LA, which may have played a part in him losing to XiGua; I also think the fact that the Chinese and Taiwanese players rarely compete outside their region makes them much harder to judge.  Astrea (as expected) struggled in falling out of the group, but at least won one game (only two players were 0-4 in the R32).

Group B
Everyone predicted Polt making it through while erroneously picking Jim second (instead of TLO).  This group featured the first decent upset (Kelazhur over TLO), but as happened throughout the round the losing player of a BO3 won the rematch (5-1 actually, as FireCake beat puCK twice).  The failed predictions here (I think) were due to the limited exposure for Jim along with TLO's patchy play in the WCS qualifiers.  Kelazhur is one of only two players (the other being Happy in Group D) who won 4 games without moving forward.

Group C
Bunny was successfully picked by TL (and me), while MajOr was the failed pick for everyone (Aligulac missed with viOLet).  This was a strange group, as MajOr won the first game of each of the sets he lost, while an ill viOLet struggled against both MaNa and Bunny--interestingly, Aligulac correctly picked MaNa to beat his TL teammate, but not where that would happen in the group.

Group D
TL was the only predictor to get a player right (PiG), as Aligulac missed out with both TargA and Happy (TL also picked the Russian Terran).  Happy should have made it through, but his predictability and passivity were something both Kane and PiG took advantage of; as for TargA, it looked like the pressure got to him, as it was a shock to see him lose both ZvZ series.

Group E
The no-brainer pick of ForGG paid off here, but Aligulac's Sen pick failed miserable as did TL's selection of puCK.  This featured some of the worst matches in the R32, with Sen completely off his game and a clueless puCK somehow missing over a year's worth of PvZ metagame vs swarm hosts (he reminded me of TitaN vs Snute back in Nation Wars last January).  This isn't to say I like FireCake's style and I'll be glad when swarm hosts are (at last) changed, but I would have thought there would be better preparation by his Protoss opponent.

Group F
The picks were the same across the board, with everyone correctly picking Serral and incorrectly choosing NaNiwa.  Suppy bombed out (as expected), while NaNiwa showed both signs of rust and being on-tilt towards the end.  I enjoy Has' brand of cheese, although I would have preferred NaNiwa moving forward as he's a better player overall.

Group G
Everything went according to plan as both Hydra and ShoWTimE moved on.  This group had the one true upset, as MorroW beat Hydra in straight up macro games; while the Swede lost the rematch, this surely has to give some hope to his Terran opponents at least.  As for ShoWTimE, he was solid, but didn't face much opposition.

Group H
Aligulac correctly picked Welmu, while both it and TL missed with HuK and TL with iaguz.  HuK was off form and increasingly on-tilt as the night went on; iaguz died attempting to do the exact same thing to MacSed on Vaani in their final game, which was a bit sad as it would have been fun to have the Gimli Terran in the next round.

So how did the various regional qualifiers perform?
Europe: 9-5 (Korean 1-0)
America: 3-5 (Koreans 2-1)
China: 2-2
Taiwan etc: 1-1
Australia: 1-1
Latin America: 0-2

As much as some fans talk about how weak some regions are, each offered strong play (including Latin America, despite both players falling out).  Europe, as expected, performed the best.

In terms of racial performance (with 8 Zergs, 5 Protoss, and 3 Terrans moving forward):
ZvT 7-6
ZvP 5-4
PvT 4-3

Map Scores (excluding mirrors):
Vaani (19): TvZ 5-3 ZvP 4-2 PvT 3-2
Overgrowth (16): TvZ 4-3 ZvP 4-2 PvT 2-1
Expedition Lost (13): ZvT 6-0 ZvP 4-2 TvP 1-0
Deadwing (12): TvZ 4-0 TvP 2-2 PvZ 2-2
Catallena (11): TvZ 4-3 TvP 1-1 ZvP 1-1
Inferno Pools (2): ZvT 1-0 TvP 1-0
Secret Spring (1): PvT 1-0
Overall (74): TvZ 17-16 ZvP 15-9 PvT 9-8

It appears as though no one should play on Expedition Lost against Zerg, while Zergs should veto Deadwing vs Terran; there's no clearly favoured map for Protoss as yet.

At any rate, predictions for the R16 will be forthcoming.  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know!

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (Groups G and H)

 

The final two groups of WCS R32 play out later this week and I'm going back to the Aligulac crystal ball to assess who will win out.  The last four groups were a nightmare for predictions, as Aligulac was 2-6 (I was 3-5, Team Liquid 4-4) as a number of veteran SC2 pros failed to move forward (overall Aligulac is 4-8; TL is 7-5).  From past experience Aligulac is accurate about two-thirds of the time, so the results here seem like an anomaly.  As always, if you notice any errors or omissions, please let me know.

 

Group G

MorroW vs Hydra - unsurprisingly Hydra is the favourite (79%), and given that he's never lost to a foreigner in HOTS (56-0) I see no hope for the Swedish Terran

ShoWTimE vs iAsonu - the German player gets the odds (73%) and has been dominant in PvZ of late (15-2), with wins over Serral, TLO, and TargA; iAsonu plays in the insular Chinese and Taiwanese scene so he's hard to judge--he loses to the best Protoss players there, but the Protoss scene isn't particularly deep; given that I'll stick with Aligulac

Losers Match

MorroW vs iAsonu - the Swede is a slight favourite (57%); iAsonu has a good ZvT record, but those numbers are almost entirely based on playing just two players (XY and Ein); MorroW is 15-6 in the match-up of late, which includes wins over Snute and TargA, but he's also lost to players like Goswser and MiNiMaTh; all of this is to say it's a virtual coin flip, but I'll stick with MorroW

Winners Match

Hydra vs ShoWTimE - the odds aren't quite as overwhelming (62%) and the German did take a game off Hydra in last months go4sc2 finals...but I still see the Korean taking this group 4-0

Finals

MorroW vs ShoWTimE - the Protoss is given the advantage (61%); despite the German's record against Terran being mixed of late, he's losing to top Europeans whereas the Swede's positive TvP numbers have been drummed up against second-tier players, so I'll stick with ShoWTimE

 

Both Aligulac and I see Hydra and ShoWTimE going through.  I'd like to see someone push Hydra, but I'm not expecting it.  I'm also leery of judging iAsonu's form since we rarely get to see him play and it's much easier for him to study his opponents than the other way around.

 

Group H
iaguz vs MacSed - the Aussie is the favourite here (55%); iaguz's TvP is all over the place, with he and MacSed splitting their last meeting at the KungFu Cup in November; MacSed does quite well in the insular scene he typically plays in and the Gimli-Terran tends to play predictably so I'll take the "upset" here

Welmu vs HuK - the Canadian is the slight favourite (51%) in the most volatile of mirror match-ups; HuK is 15-2 in his most recent PvP's while Welmu is 13-3, but for the most part neither have played the best foreigners; I think the Finn is a better player at his peak, but I don't think he's there right now so I'll give this to the always aggressive HuK
Losers Match
Welmu vs iaguz - the Finn is a slight favourite (56%), but I think that's conservative and that iaguz will lose convincingly; if Aligulac is right and this is Welmu vs MacSed the Finn remains the favourite (56%)

Winners Match

HuK vs MacSed - the Canadian gets the odds (59%) and I see no reason to disagree; if this match is  iaguz vs HuK then the Canuck remains a slight favourite (52%), but with recent wins over Xenocider and MarineLorD he seems primed to win that contest if it occurs

Finals

Welmu vs MacSed - the Finn is favoured (56%) and if on point he should win; if Aligulac is right then this will be Welmu vs iaguz with the Finn given the same edge as above

 

Both Aligulac and I have HuK and Welmu advancing.  I don't feel very confident about the selection however--no player has strong odds over any other.  Add PvP volatility and the advantage iaguz has of preparing for only one match-up, there's a lot of room for upsets.

 

So far there are 7 Zergs, 3 Terrans, and 2 Protoss through to the R16, with two of three Koreans making it through (RIP viOLet).  Five players are going to make their R16 debuts (Kane, PiG, FireCake, Has, and Serral).  The most competitive groups thus far were C and D.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (Groups C, D, E, and F)

 

With four more Groups this week it's time to go back to the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will move on to the Round of 16 (you can see the groups here).  Predictions from the first two groups were 2-2.  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know (I have seen a couple comments on the colour scheme; if your eyes bleed reading it, #SC2passion).

Group C

Bunny vs MajOr - with the power of Pokémon MajOr gets the slight edge (54%) against his Danish opponent; both players have been incredibly dominant in TvT against other foreign Terrans, although MajOr does have a couple of inexplicable losses against CealeR; it's too close to call so I'll stick with Aligulac

viOLet vs MaNa - not surprisingly the Korean gets a significant edge (61%); the days of MaNa being one of the best foreigners are long past, but by the same token viOLet is the least intimidating Korean in Premier; at the end of the day the Korean should win, but an on-form MaNa is certainly capable of upsetting him (despite that, I'll stick with Aligulac)

Losers Match

MaNa vs Bunny - interestingly, MaNa is the slight favourite (51%), but both players have excellent percentages in the matchup and both have defeated the other within the past four months; I prefer the "upset" here; incidentally, should MaNa face MajOr instead, the Mexican is the favourite (57%)

Winners Match

viOLet vs MajOr - the Mexican is a heavy favourite (66%), although their last 6 series are split down the middle (3-3); viOLet has been vulnerable to foreign Terrans of late (besides losing to MajOr, he's lost to qxc and MaSa), so I'll stick with the odds

Finals

viOLet vs Bunny - the Danish Terran gets the edge (58%), and despite him getting crushed of late by Korean Zergs, I'll stick with him here; if this match follows Aligulac completely then MaNa would again lose to viOLet

 

Aligulac has MajOr and viOLet moving forward, whereas I have Bunny instead of the Korean player.

 

Group D

Happy vs PiG - the odds are closer than I expected, but Happy remains the favourite (57%); PiG has a fantastic ZvT record, but those wins have come at the expense of players below Happy's level; the Russian faces a steady diet of European Zergs as good (or better) than PiG and enjoys an impressive record, so there's no need to go outside the odds here

TargA vs Kane - I don't know how much the Canadian's hectic travel schedule will impact his play, but he's a heavy underdog (73%); Kane has had limited success against top Europeans, so I'll stick with the odds

Losers Match

Kane vs PiG - interestingly, PiG is almost as big a favourite (71%) as TargA, but in this case I don't think the difference is justified; I expect it will be close, but I'll give it to the Australian

Winners Match

Happy vs TargA - the Russian gets very slight odds (51%), and while I think Happy is a better overall player, his predictability is something TargA has exploited in the past, so the match is a true coin flip (I will stick with the odds, however)

Finals

PiG vs TargA - the Norwegian is a slight favourite (51%), but I think that's generous to PiG and believe TargA will take the series without too much trouble; if Happy winds up here instead, he should take care of business against PiG again

 

Both Aligulac and I have Happy and TargA going through.

 

Group E

ForGG vs Sen - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (72%), and the last foreign Zergs he's lost too are both retired (VortiX and LiveZerg); Sen did beat Bomber back in August, but from his overall track record that's clearly an anomaly

puCK vs FireCake - the American is a strong favourite (62%); at a guess I think puCK will make a ton of stalkers and FireCake will go swarm hosts, but that aside, the American's PvZ results are inconsistent, but include beating good players, while the French player hasn't beaten a top Protoss since 2013, so I'll stick with the odds

Losers Match

Sen vs FireCake - the Taiwanese Zerg is an overwhelming favourite (78%), although he did lose to Suppy back in June; FireCake doesn't beat top foreign Zergs so I'll stick with Aligulac

Winners Match

ForGG vs puCK - unsurprisingly ForGG is the favourite (86%), as he hasn't lost to a foreign Protoss since Season One back in 2014; the last time the American beat a Korean Terran at ForGG's level was his win over Polt back in 2013, so I it's safe to stick with the odds here

Finals

Sen vs puCK - the American is the underdog (45%), but Sen's fantastic ZvP record is built off the insular Chinese/Taiwanese scene; he also lost to puCK when they last played (almost a year ago); I think the American's inconsistency is likely to rear its head at some point so I'll stick with Aligulac

 

Both Aligulac and I have ForGG and Sen moving on.

 

Group F

NaNiwa vs Has - the Swede is the heavy favourite (70%), although we have to keep in mind he's only just returned to competitive play as the vagaries of PvP; Has' results are largely through the insular Chinese/Taiwanese scene, but his loss to HuK back in November adds some credence to the odds which I'll stick with

Serral vs Suppy - the Finn is the favourite (66%), and I'd like to think a full-time player has the edge over a part-time one like Suppy; both players have some puzzling losses in ZvZ, smacking of inconsistency and the difficulties of the mirror matchup, but there's nothing in the background to suggest Aligulac is wrong

Losers Match

Has vs Suppy - Has gets the odds (61%) and I see no reason to question that

Winners Match

Serral vs NaNiwa - the Swede gets the edge (65%) and if NaNiwa wasn't coming off retirement I'd leave it at that; Serral's ZvP is all over the place, but I think his form isn't what's in question, it's his opponent's--with the uncertainty I'll stick with the odds

Finals

Has vs Serral - the Finn gets the edge (55%) and there's no compelling reason to argue with that

 

Both Aligulac and I have NaNiwa and Serral moving forward.

 

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

WCS Premier Preview (Groups A and B)

 

With Groups A and B taking place this weekend it's time to look into the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will move on to the Round of 16 (you can see the groups here).  If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.

Group A

XiGua vs Astrea - the American gets a slight edge (51%); XiGua is well past his gamer prime at 28 (you can see more about the how pro gamers age here), and hasn't faced a serious non-Chinese, non-Korean opponent in HOTS, so his form is hard to judge; however, he's got much more tournament experience than Astrea; as for the "favourite", the Protoss' results aren't remarkable other than beating a declining Scarlett, so I'll give this to XiGua

Snute vs uThermal - not surprisingly Snute is the favourite at 64%; is there hope for the Dutch Terran? From the results of both it doesn't look like it, as while the Norwegian has lost to a few foreign Terrans of late, uThermal has dropped series against Zergs like Zanster, Kane, and Snitchables

Losers Match

Astrea vs uThermal - the Terran is an overwhelming favourite (69%), having beaten Astrea a month ago in the SEA OSC All-Stars; the American's only significant wins against foreign Terrans were back during the blink all-in phase with a very different map pool, so I'll stick with the odds

Winners Match

XiGua vs Snute - the Norwegian is a veritable certainty with an 80% chance; Snute's ZvZ has been off the charts lately (19-2) and I see no hope for the Chinese Zerg

Final

uThermal vs XiGua - Aligulac gives the match to uThermal (64%) and given the paucity of data on XiGua against anyone other than the thin Chinese Terrans I'll go with it.

 

This would mean Snute and uThermal move on, which stays the same even sticking religiously to Aligulac's predictions: if Astrea beats XiGua the fallout is: Snute beats the Protoss player (82%), uThermal still defeats XiGua and then Astrea.

 

Group B

TLO vs Kelazhur - a nice match for TLO as he's a 70% favourite and there's nothing to suggest the Brazilian can pull off an upset

Polt vs Jim - as expected Polt is the overwhelming favourite (77%) and I see no reason to argue with that

Loser's Match

Jim vs Kelazhur - Jim is the overwhelming favourite (71%), with the only blot on his record being a loss to iaguz back in WCS Premier last year--I'll stick with the odds, however

Winner's Match

Polt vs TLO - the Korean is slightly less favoured (66%), but since losing three times to Scarlett at Red Bull back in June, Polt has only dropped one match against a foreign Zerg (going 24-1), so he'll win here

Finals

TLO vs Jim - the Chinese Protoss is a heavy favourite (63%) and there's nothing in TLO's recent ZvP matches to suggest an upset

 

We should see Polt and Jim advancing.

 

For those who missed it, there was an ESL/Blizzard boondoggle drawing the WCS groups initially, so here's how things have changed from the first official announcements:

Astrea, XiGua and uThermal moved from Group C to one with Snute (Group H)

Kane and PiG moved from the all-Zerg Group H to one that includes TargA (Group A) and Happy (Group B)

MajOr and MaNa moved from Group A to one with Bunny (Group C) and viOLet (Group G)

Kelazhur and Jim have gone from Group E to one that includes Polt (Group B) and TLO (Group G)

NaNiwa and Suppy have gone from Group E to one that includes Serral (Group B) and Has (Group D)

Welmu and iaguz have moved from Group F to one with HuK (Group D) and MacSed (Group G)

The new Groups D and F have no prior pairings.

So who were the winners and losers of the shuffle?  Winners include Happy, who went from a group with two Koreans to one with none; Serral (who was also in Happy's original group), who enjoys the same advantage; HuK seems to have marginally improved as his group looks weaker; I think iaguz is doomed, but not having to play Hydra can only help; Welmu also no longer faces a Korean.

As for the losers, MajOr's and MaNa's groups are marginally more difficult; puCK's is much more difficult; FireCake now has a Korean to face, as does ShoWTimE; both Kelazhur and Jim now have to face Polt; viOLet (the least intimidating Korean) is in a much more difficult group; iAsonu now has to deal with Hydra.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)