After what seems like forever, WCS is back in action tomorrow in the midst of the Legacy of the Void beta hype (I'll have a few comments about the latter at the end of this). This is the last gasp of the old map pool and the old swarm host (RIP). In terms or predictive success from the R32 it's been quite close between Aligulac, Team Liquid, and myself, although none have produced stellar results to this point. That being said, here's how the groups breakdown tomorrow. If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know.
Group A
Three Zergs and one Terran make for an interesting mix. Serral didn't drop a map arriving here (beating NaNiwa and Suppy), while ForGG only lost one game (screwing around against FireCake); TLO narrowly beat out Kelazhur after dropping his first series against him (he also took out Jim), while XiGua fought tooth and nail to beat both Astrea and a sick uThermal, while LAO losing to Snute.
Serral vs XiGua - the Finnish player is a strong favourite (65%); it's difficult to judge XiGua's current form given the insular scene he plays in, but while Serral's ZvZ percentages are great, his match history features some surprising bumps in the road (JonnyRecco and HateMe (!)), and what few games he's played since the R32 have been iffy as well, so I'll take the upset here
ForGG vs TLO - not surprisingly, the Korean is a heavy favourite (79%), so the question is, does TLO have any hope? I don't see it--while he beat ForGG two years ago at a Dreamhack, he's lost to him in both subsequent meetings and he hasn't beaten a Korean Terran since SuperNova back in July (going 0-9 since)
Losers Match
Serral vs TLO - once again the Finnish player gets the odds (57%); oddly they've only played against each other once competitively (a BO1 that Serral won); I mentioned Serral's missteps in ZvZ above, although it's worth noting both he and TLO have absurdly good records in the matchup (in their ten most recent BO3s: 8-2 for the Finn, 9-1 for the German); that said, TLO only loses to good Zerg players so I think he has the edge here and I'll go for the upset; if this instead features XiGua instead of the Finnish player, Aligulac gives TLO the edge (58%)
Winners Match
ForGG vs XiGua - we can safely say RIP XiGua and know the odds back us up (85%); Aligulac would have Serral here and not surprisingly gives ForGG a significant edge (73%)--I see no reason to argue
Finals
TLO vs XiGua - TLO has a slight edge (58%) and here I agree with them (for the reasons given above in his match against Serral; this is Aligulac's imagined losers match btw); if Aligulac is right and TLO faces Serral here you can read about that above (but they give it to the Finn).
ForGG and TLO move on for me, while Aligulac has Serral instead of the German player. [TL posted shortly after this and has Aligulac's conclusions.]
Group B
A Z/P all-foreigner group. Snute didn't lose a map making it here (taking out XiGua and an ill uThermal), while ShoWTimE had competitive series against iAsonu and MorroW; MacSed squeaked through by beating iaguz in their re-match series (along with knocking off a very subpar HuK); PiG recovered from being crushed by Happy to edge out both TargA and the predictable Russian.
Snute vs MacSed - the Norwegian is a heavy favourite (82%), and the only way MacSed wins this is to win early (I say that despite his high PvZ ratio--struggling to beat Enderr is not a great sign), so I'll stick with the odds
ShoWTimE vs PiG - the German player is favoured (68%), and I think that's being generous to PiG as he hasn't beaten a notable Protoss since ToD back in July
Losers Match
MacSed vs PiG - oddly enough, PiG has beaten MacSed, but it was back in 2013 and doesn't seem that relevant, but it helps explain why he's so heavily favoured (63%); to my mind MacSed's record in the matchup is more impressive than PiG's, but I don't know if heavy swarmhost play is as common in the Chinese scene--regardless, I'll stick with the "upset" here
Winners Match
Snute vs ShoWTimE - the odds are very close (55% for Snute), and that's likely because ShoWTimE beat Snute twice at the Fragbite Masters less than a month ago; it's hard to bet against Snute, especially when he still has access to his favourite unnerfed unit, but he's been known to stubbornly stick to his builds so perhaps the German has figured him out--I'll go with the upset
Finals
Snute vs MacSed - this is a rematch and while normally the player who loses the first wins the second, I think Snute will comfortably win again; Aligulac would make this a rematch between ShoWTimE and PiG (whose odds you can see above)
ShoWTimE and Snute move ahead for me (Aligulac arrives at the same conclusion, but comes at it a different way). [TL, link above, puts MacSed through instead of the German.]
A couple of thoughts about the LOTV beta (with the Lycan League tournament just an hour or so away): it's been fantastic and I love the changes--the action is much and there's a lot more multitasking. In terms of balance concerns (along with an awful map pool), opinions seem similar across the board (echoed from The Late Game to Artosis to streamers like HuK or HeroMarine): the Cyclone is broken (while easily countered by Zerglings in TvZ, it's overpowered against Protoss), the Ravager is broken (mostly against Protoss--last night I think I saw them rushed in almost every ZvP), and the Viper's Parasitic Bomb is broken. There's slight disagreement over the Adept, but most Protoss pros thought it was useless as-is; the invulnerable Nydus has been brought-up; I saw complaints about Carriers, but not enough to call them broken (unless the Protoss can amass a huge fleet of them I don't see the problem, but I'm hardly an expert). Those are the impressions I noted and it will be interesting to see what tweaks are made--it's worth pointing out that everyone likes the ideas behind the new units, so even those that have issues at the moment seem worth saving (granted I agree with iNcontroL that thematically Zergs don't really need the Lurker and the Swarmhost--keep the Lurker I say).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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