Only 79 players signed up for the second day of the NA qualifiers, a large decrease from the first day (and surprising given that Jaedong was already through the bracket). It was funny to see I-only-turtle-mech Avilo pulling out RuFF builds in the qualifier (the latter did not participate). The two qualifiers were qxc (beating Bails; apparently qxc is the only guy who can take time off and still win), and Zeal (a Canadian Protoss player who beat NoRegreT). Here are the names of note who failed to make it:
R128: JonSnow (this after making it to the final on day one)
R64: Neeb, Illusion, Scarlett, Semper, StarDust
R32: MaSa, Goswser, ViBE
R16: State
R8: Intense
Qualifying match: Bails
Incredibly StarDust bombed from the qualifier again (losing to WArchief this time). In the two qualifiers the former WCS Europe champion has won a single BO3--he can't blame the lag in Korea given that both Jaedong and State are playing from there and performed better. I have to think he isn't taken his opposition serious enough.
The third day of WCS Europe (with 165 players participating, the first participation dip in the region), was a very good one, with dynamic play and a lot of great matches. Lilbow, Zanster, Elazer, and souL made it through. Of the four the two Polish players are the biggest surprises, as neither has significant results outside smaller cups (the Terran had the easiest path through the brackets). This will be Zanster's second time in WCS Challenger (his last was season one in 2014), while Lilbow returns to Challenger from last season. As for the losers, most significantly were DeMuslim and Petraeus, losing the final for the second time each, but here are all the notables:
R128: Theo, sLivko, Stephano
R64: NightEnD, KrasS, Lambo, PsiOniC
R32: JonnyREcco, Tefel, Miniraser, PtitDrogo, Dayshi
R16: Cooltea, Harstem, SortOf, Majestic
Qualifying match: DeMuslim, Petraeus, Kas
The "Last Chance" qualifier remains for EU and has already been determined (via points given depending how well each player did). Here's the list:
Protoss (7): Cooltea, Eiki, Harstem, NightEnD, Theo, Jeysen, Verdi
Zerg (6): Petraeus, JonnyREcco, Namshar, SortOf, Guru, sLivko
Terran (3): DeMuslim, Lillekanin, Kas
For some reason French Protoss player DnS declined his invitation (which is why sLivko is here). There are four players who stand well above the others in terms of performance: Petraeus, Cooltea, JonnyREcco, and DeMuslim. It's a double-elimination bracket, so players can lose a series and still qualify. Before I get to predictions, here's a reminder of who has qualified so far (those in Challenger for the first time are in italics):
Zerg (5): Bly, Ret, Nerchio, Zanster, Elazer
Terran (4): HeRoMaRinE, Beastyqt, MarineLorD, souL
Protoss (3): Lilbow, elfi, GunGFuBanda
As for the odds going into the final qualifier:
Petraeus vs sLivko - the odds are 70% for the former, who has never lost to the Russian
Theo vs NightEnD - the wily Romanian is favoured (73%)
Eiki vs Lillekanin - interestingly, the Dane is given slight odds (52%), despite losing to the Norwegian in the qualifiers--I believe Eiki will win here
SortOf vs DeMuslim - the Swede is favoured (59%), but the Brit has been performing better and I'd take the upset here
JonnyREcco vs Verdi - somehow these two SC2 vets have never played one another before; the Brit gets a slight edge (52%)
Jeysen vs Harstem - these two played twice already in the qualifiers, splitting their series, but the popular Dutch player is a heavy favourite (72%)
Namshar vs Kas - the affable Ukrainian is favoured (77%), but he was pretty sloppy losing to Elazer so an upset is possible
Guru vs Cooltea - the Russian Protoss gets the edge (67%), and performed better overall in the qualifiers, but all the underlying numbers (score against one another and form in the match-up) favour the Polish Zerg (related to the old swarmhost I wonder?)
Assuming my predictions above are correct:
Petraeus vs NightEnD - the Zerg is heavily favoured (73%)
Eiki vs DeMuslim - the Terran is heavy favoured (70%) and has won each time he's played the Norwegian; if this is SortOf vs Lillekanin (as per Aligulac) the Swede is heavily favoured (74%)
JonnyREcco vs Harstem - the odds are slightly in the Dutch player's favour (57%), with their record against one another very close (6-5)
Kas vs Cooltea - the Terran is favoured (66%), and has a dominating record over the Russian (4-1)
From there:
Petraeus vs DeMuslim - the Zerg has the edge (62%), although DeMuslim is in better form (the two have never met in a tournament), so I like him here; if this follows Aligulac then SortOf is the opponent and the edge remains for Petraeus (65%)
Harstem vs Kas - the Ukrainian has a very slight edge (51%), with all the underlying numbers supporting him
Leading to:
DeMuslim vs Kas - bizarrely, the Ukrainian is favoured (66%), despite a poor record against his opponent (4-9) and worse current form in TvT, so I take the "upset"; if this follows Aligulac and this is Petraeus, he has the edge (59%)
So by my predictions DeMuslim qualifies first, while Aligulac gives it to Petraeus. There is, however, a losers bracket to consider. To avoid making this post overly long, Aligulac has Kas getting the second spot, while I give it to Petraeus (mind you, it would be something if the latter failed to qualify again despite reaching the final match to do so repeatedly).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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