Yesterday Premier players from EU and NA picked their opponents for Challenger. The selection lacked the errors of season one (thankfully), and featured some interesting choices, particularly in EU (Zergs fled from non-mirror match-ups). It's worth keeping in mind that there's no place to hide in a best-of-five--you can't luck your way to a win. I'd also note that whether a player struggled to qualify or not apparently has little bearing on how they'll do in Challenger (consider Polt, Snute, and TLO from last season). That said, here are Aligulac's odds along with my thoughts and predictions:
EU
Bunny vs Beastyqt - a bit of an odd choice, as I think Bunny could have picked an easier opponent, but he has overwhelming odds to win (78%); the two have faced each other only once competitively (a BO1 that the Dane won), but more importantly Beastyqt simply doesn't have a great track record against top Terrans, so I don't see an upset here
ShoWTimE vs Elazer - this was an obvious selection for the German who has dominant odds (75%) against the young Polish player; interestingly, Elazer beat his opponent 3-1 in the Fragbite Masters a month ago, but that was before the swarmhost change
ForGG vs souL - you have to feel for the Polish player, who is given only a 2% chance to beat the Korean; if souL is looking for hope or inspiration he can think back to the time he beat MMA in September; that said, I don't see an upset here
Snute vs Bly - there were easier match-ups for the Norwegian to pick here (Ret comes to mind), but his 24-8 map score against the Ukrainian backs up his 66% odds; Bly is good in the mirror match-up and it has been a few months since his last loss to Snute, but I don't see him winning here
TLO vs Nerchio - this was an odd pick by the German, who had easier alternatives (eg Ret, who he beat in Challenger last season, among other Zerg possibilities); the Polish player is a huge favourite (77%); TLO has been very good in the match-up of late, but he hasn't beaten Nerchio since 2013 (he's 0-5 since in series), so an upset is quite likely
Serral vs Harstem - the Dutch player is favoured (57%), despite the Finn having a 5-1 record against him (including crushing him 3-0 last season in Challenger--granting that's before the patch); Harstem is a very inconsistent player, but Serral was very dependent on swarmhosts, so which element wins here? I don't have a strong feeling either way so I'll retreat to the odds
FireCake vs Zanster - there was no chance the unpopular Frenchman was going to pick anything other than a Zerg opponent (due to the patch), but the Swede has to be ecstatic at the choice as he's slightly favoured (51%) and has beaten FireCake every time they've played (3-0)--he's also on an 11-0 win streak in ZvZ BO3/BO5s, so I like the Swede here
Welmu vs Ret - I consider the Finn a much better player, but Ret gets the odds (58%) and has a winning record between them (9-6); both have been good in the match-up of late, but the Dutch player hasn't made it to Premier since season two in 2013, so I'm going to stick with my instincts and pick the Finn
MaNa vs HeRoMaRinE - a bold pick by MaNa, although he was beyond the stage of easy picks; this is a rematch from Challenger where the German blew a 2-0 lead; the Polish player is slightly favoured (53%), with a dominant record against his opponent (14-6), but the German is an improving player and spends most of his time in the EPS playing TvP, so this could go his way (I'll stick with the odds, however)
uThermal vs Lilbow - the Frenchman is slightly favoured (51%), although the Dutch Terran is 2-1 vs his opponent and this is his best match-up (he's 18-1 in series of late, only losing to GunGFuBanda); Lilbow's PvT hasn't be great of late and I see no hope for him here
MorroW vs Petraeus - the Zerg player is favoured (64%), despite never beating the Swede (0-2); I like this pick by MorroW, as he's a former Zerg player, hates the TvP match-up (he nearly lost a sloppy series to BlinG in Challenger last season), and has been better than his opponent in TvZ of late (Petraeus has lost to players like Strelok, pre-patch!), so I think he'll win here
Happy vs MarineLorD - this was a bizarre pick by the Russian, which I assume was made because he didn't want to face a Protoss opponent (nearly losing to Majestic in Challenger last season perhaps on his mind); that said, Happy is favoured (61%) and has an impressive record against the French Terran (20-6); the latter has been hit and miss in the match-up (granting that he nearly beat ForGG in Challenger last season); the problem for the Russian is his robotic play--his tendency to pick one strategy and stubbornly stick with it, making him extremely vulnerable if MarineLorD can counter whatever it is he's doing, so I like the upset here
NaNiwa vs GunGFuBanda - I got the feeling everyone was trying to avoid the German Protoss player, but NaNiwa clearly didn't want to deal with elfi's cheese (memories of Has undoubtedly strong in his mind), so picked him anyway; the Swede is a slight favourite (51%), but the two have never played before and both are roughly in the same place in PvP; since he came out of retirement NaNiwa has only lost to Serral (pre-patch) and Has, so I'll stick with him here
TargA vs elfi - the Norwegian has to be pretty happy to face an opponent he's very familiar with (just like Kas in Challenger last season); he just has to survive the elfi cheese and move on, which is exactly what I and Aligulac foresee (61%); it's worth noting the Finn has a winning record against his opponent (7-4)
The odds and I agree on the following: Bunny, ShoWTimE, ForGG, Snute, Nerchio, Harstem, Zanster, MaNa, NaNiwa, and TargA. We differ on Welmu (Aligulac picks Ret), uThermal (vs Lilbow), MorroW (vs Petraeus), and MarineLorD (vs Happy).
NA
Hydra vs Zeal - the Korean made the obvious choice and there's no chance (95%) of an upset here; Zeal is not a new player (he's been around since WOL, but has changed his name a number of times, aka Ruin, AiuR, etc), but he's never beaten a Korean
Kane vs PiLiPiLi - another obvious choice, the Canadian is heavily favoured (75%) and recently beat his opponent 4-1 in a showmatch; it's worth noting that PiLiPiLi is theoretically better in the match-up lately, but considering his opponents I don't think that means much
puCK vs Xenocider - the Protoss player is not favoured (47%) against the Terran, hasn't been great in PvT of late, but does have a slight edge head-to-head against Xenocider (7-6); I always think of puCK as a PvZ guy and I'll stick with the EG Terran
viOLet vs qxc - the beatable Korean is a heavy favourite (71%), and given that the American has been semi-retired it's hard to imagine him winning here (remember he lost 3-0 against Kane last season and that was just after he retired)
HuK vs StarDust - not surprisingly the Korean is favoured (62%), although he is someone foreigners can beat; if HuK was on-form I'd consider the upset, but it's only been the last week or two that he's started to beat good players and that's not enough of a track record to bet against the odds
Suppy vs Jaedong - I think the Tyrant is a beatable opponent, if Suppy was playing full-time, but he's not and the thumping he received in Premier last season was a great illustration of that; the Korean is a massive favourite (88%)
Astrea vs MaSa - given the circumstances, this is the best case scenario for the Protoss player, but he remains a huge underdog (78%); on the plus side, he has a winning record against the Canadian (2-1), but he hasn't played since Premier (!) so I expect a one-sided stomp for MaSa
The odds and I agree completely here: Hydra, Kane, Xenocider, viOLet, StarDust, Jaedong, and MaSa.
Copa America (the Latin American qualifier) is in the books. Day one opened with 168 players (!) participating (far more than any of the NA qualifiers). There was no English cast, which I found a puzzling choice given that it's a great way for players to market themselves outside the local scene. Interestingly, the Portuguese streams had bigger numbers, so I'm wondering if the Brazilian scene is bigger than the rest of Latin America at the moment. At any rate, the biggest surprise on day one was Catz being knocked out by Portuguese player ReasoN (who came 2nd in the Brazilian nationals just a month ago)--the same thing happened to Catz last year when ByRada knocked him out of the first day of the qualifiers. Here are the players who made it through from day one:
Zerg (6): Cham, ReasoN, Erik, Raivotar, JimRising, ByRada
Terran (1): CealeR
Protoss (1): wiNgiAN
Both Cham and JimRising were in the grand finals of Copa America last year, while Erik, CealeR, and wiNgiAN all made it to the main part of the feeding tourneys. Raivotar was the biggest surprise, as he hasn't appeared in the competitive scene since September and has almost no professional track record.
On day two 133 players participated, and this time Catz cruised through to qualify. Here's the full list of qualifiers:
Zerg (3): Catz, BLord, OdiN
Terran (4): SenDoh, TerraN, Smile, Bush
Protoss (1): XionS
Both BLord and Catz were in the Grand Finals last year (so all the players from that tournament who could qualify have done so); SenDoh is another player who made it to the main part of the feeder tourneys. As for the others, OdiN has been around forever, but without results to show for it; Bush has also been around since WOL, earning top-four in the Brazilian championship last month; XionS is another WOL-era player (his one significant result was back in 2012). TerraN hasn't participated in much and is relatively new; MYI's Smile has been a bit more active, but has no results to speak of (there's a glitch in finding him in Aligulac, as he's currently not searchable by name despite being on the site).
It's a mix of old and new for Copa America, with a Zerg dominated R16 forthcoming to see who will face Kelazhur and MajOr in Challenger. JimRising and Catz made it last season, so stand as the favourites, but I won't do specific predictions until the brackets go up. Just for interests sake, here's the other players listed by earnings: Cham, BLord, XionS, ReasoN, Erik, Bush, Byrada, and wiNgiAN (the rest have none).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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